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Patriots vs. Broncos AFCCG Film Review

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I feel like I finally saw the game for the first time just now, getting a chance to look at the All-22 film. For those of you who were lucky enough to miss it, I came down with a killer stomach bug Saturday afternoon that destroyed me through the night. That made watching the game on Sunday less than optimal.

There was no pregamming. No pump up music or good food or drinks. I could barely muster the strength to coordinate my Patriots outfit for Hoodie’s sake! Nope, spent the game sipping Gatorade and nibbling on saltines, praying that the nightmare unfolding before me was just some kind of fever dream.

Alas it was not. But there was plenty on here to make me sick if I already hadn’t caught whatever Jamie Collins had the middle of this season.

There’s been plenty of great film review already out there, but I had to take a look for myself and most of what has been discussed was confirmed. But here’s what I saw with my own eyes.

First, let’s say I can’t wait to go back to Denver next year even though we have no idea who their QB will be. Every time we go there we kill ourselves with un-Patriot-like football. Football is a game of inches and that was very true in this one. 

The Pats just hung in there and kept fighting when it seemed like the game was hanging by a string multiple times. Despite all the negative attention being heaped on everyone this week, this game was winnable in spite of it all.

Yes, Wade Phillips deserves a ton of credit but it was nothing the Pats haven’t see and shredded before. The problem was that they weren’t expecting it, weren’t ready to counter it and once Brady couldn’t get locked in the game was a struggle.

Nothing sums this up better than seeing Julian Edelman wide open on a couple plays yet Brady is forcing it deep to Bolden. Seriously I pray I never have to watch a Brandon Bolden-centric ground game ever again. It’s like Matthew Slater at wide receiver. You’re awesome at special teams. Stick to what you’re awesome at.

Hard to ask for the defense to do too much better than they did. Yes the first drive was gross but also aided by a questionable PI call. Collins blew two coverages that resulted in touchdowns but outside of those two plays there were barely any legitimate big plays made on the defense. Anderson’s 30-yard run in the fourth quarter was the only real breakdown.

All things considered the defense did everything they had to do to let the offense win the game. Take that defensive performance in any other season-ender and the Pats probably win. Could we have used another takeaway? Sure. But they forced punt after punt and only gave up three points after the half. What else can you ask?

Collins and Hightower led the way, but Brown and Branch were standouts as well. The secondary all stayed right with their guy in man coverage and limited YAC. Matt Patricia must be driving himself crazy because the defense was good enough to win despite facing two turnovers and multiple short fields.

Nuggets:

Malcolm Butler’s stop on third-and-1 where he takes off like he’s shot out of a cannon to tackle Anderson for no gain in the third quarter was such a clutch play. Butler deserves every bit of praise he gets now as a #1 corner. 

Amendola seemed like he was hurt after every play. Very curious to see what the offseason holds for him.

The troubling thing about the offensive line and likely why Gugs got the axe, was how out of sync they looked. There was no rhythm, especially in the run game. And even when they brought in Fleming to go max protect, Miller blows right by him for the worst sack of the day. Just unacceptable because they looked clueless.

Sebastian Vollmer will be having nightmares about Demarcus Ware, who owned our veteran tackle almost every down. Even at the end, Ware just kept coming and Vollmer just didn’t have the foot speed to compete.

Just too painful to ever watch the failed two-pointer again. Gronk was so so wide open. 

Can’t believe how Brady hung in there and just kept fighting after taking the beating of his life. And to think they were just a play or two away from winning this thing is such a testament to Brady and the team’s mental toughness. They went down like champs should go down, swinging to the last.

After a full two days of reflection and taking a calm look at the film the fire has already started for the 2016 season for me. And yes, we get to go back to Denver. With pretty much this entire team coming back the Pats will clearly be the AFC favorites come September, but we all know it’s a win in Mile High that will be the big thing we all want.

Offseason Day #2: A rough outline of a plan

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My Patriots needs as of a month ago haven’t really changed much after the post-season non-fun. Here they are again, with some notes as to why I’ve initially ranked them this way.

  1. Tackle (Vollmer/Cannon entering last years, always go trenches over skill, high draft)
  2. Early Down Running Back (mid-round draft, Gaffney potential?, Blount is FA)
  3. Wide Receiver (Amendola possible cap casualty, LaFell entering last year, Keshawn Martin ceiling? high/mid/low draft)
  4. Linebacker (middle guy, coverage speed, cut & re-sign Mayo on cheap, draft, FA)
  5. Cornerback (depth and size needed, re-sign Tarrell Brown? Low draft )
  6. Tight End (always a need, find ideal Gronk compliment at Y-TE)
  7. Guard (Are Mason/Jackson/Kline the answer?)
  8. Defensive End (Sheard/Ninkovich/Jones entering last years)
  9. Defensive Tackle (always a need)

Here’s how the depth chart currently looks, along with free agents. I starred the priority guys for me. Branch and Mayo have orange boxes signifying their options this offseason.

Here’s a rough outline for a plan this offseason.

Decline: Mayo option

Don’t see much interest out there for Mayo, at least not enough to get him to leave New England even if the Pats offered him a vet minimum type deal after declining his option. Does he have anything left in the tank? Didn’t look like it this year though he started to make some plays down the stretch. Given his favored status with BB I could see him getting one last shot on a team-friendly deal. Either way, LB depth is a priority.

Re-Work/Cut: Amendola, Bostic

Bostic did nothing after the Pats traded for him and is an easy cut unless there were lingering injury issues they’d like to give him a chance to get through. Amendola is an interesting one, due to make $5 million with a $6.8 million cap hit. They’re still paying for the overpriced contract they gave him two years ago, and had to already re-do it once last season to spread out his hit a little bit. Seems possible he might not return unless he’s willing to do the Pats another favor.

Pickup: Branch option

Pats have an option on Branch that would pay him the same salary as this year: $1.2 million. The $2.75 million cap hit might be a little rich for the Pats, but Branch was consistently good this season and made for a great starting inside pair with Malcolm Brown. Must bring at least him or Hicks back, and Branch is far more affordable.

Extend: Hightower, Sheard, Collins, Butler

Not a lot of priority internal free agents this year but next offseason is brutal so they need to start locking guys up now. Hightower is my top priority, he’s the heart of the defense now and gets just a slight nod over Jamie Collins, who is nearly as important. Sheard was everything we’d hoped he’d be last season, and was playing over Chandler Jones in the playoffs. He should be a long-term building block. Butler should get done before the end of the 2016 season, but for the Pats, who don’t overpay the corner position, it will be interesting to see how they value Butler.

Trade Bait: Chandler Jones

Pats are in a good position with Chandler in that they can just let him play out the last year of his contract, because he still has something to prove. They have the depth to replace him though and that’s why he could be trade bait. A Sheard-Ninkovich-Flowers-Grissom DE group would be okay assuming Flowers builds on how he looked in limited action last summer. Either way, I don’t think Chandler’s with the Pats past 2016.

Priority RFA/ERFA: Coleman, Develin, C. Fleming, King, Siliga, R. Johnson.

Coleman was really underrated in the slot and despite injuries and a concussion came on in the playoffs. They’ll want to keep him around for sure. Develin’s return would really help the struggling run game and give the offense another dynamic they missed this year. Fleming stays cause we can’t cut all the tackles. King was extremely underrated on special teams and could be needed to fill a void that Brandon Bolden/Nate Ebner might leave via free agency.

Priority Internal UFA: Ebner, Fletcher, Brown, Hicks

We can take a shot at Hicks but it seems likely he’ll get more elsewhere after getting that new Patriots smell rubbed all over him this season. Tarrell Brown looked like a starter in training camp and would be the perfect kind of veteran to bring in to the corner mix again rather than trolling for someone new who may or may not get it. Always liked Fletcher and linebacker depth is a need, especially someone like him with good quickness and coverage ability. Keeping Ebner over Wilson for special teams. Wilson replaceable by King, Fletcher.

External FA Positional Consideration: RB, OT, LB, WR

Don’t get too crazy with delusions of big name, high priced guys here with all the internal guys who need to be secured. The Amendola/Mayo/Fletcher/Cannon/Vollmer situations will impact the needs here and must play out first. One name I liked before the draft is WR Mohammad Sanu who has good size and can do a number of different things. Otherwise I’m looking at mid-range vets coming off injuries or sub-par seasons who will be reasonably priced.

Initial Primary Draft (Long-term) Needs: OT, LB, RB, WR, QB

Again, we have to go through free agency first to really get a sense on draft needs but generally the draft is about the long term. These are the positions that need young depth more than anywhere else. And I’m throwing QB on there because it would make sense if you think Brady can get another couple years out of his body past 2017, the last year of his current deal (which is also the last year of Garoppolo’s. At this point, the more young QBs we can groom under Brady the better.

Offseason Day #1: The Patriots Plan

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It’s the first day of the offseason which of course means that everyone’s an expert about what the Patriots need to do this season (aside from just get healthy, because let’s be honest, that’s about 75 percent of it).

You have the WEAPONZZZZZ! crowd who think Alshon Jeffery and every other big name free agent wide receiver is the answer, and the ‘blow up the entire offensive line’ crowd is pretty vocal right now as well.

The important thing is to look at the overall big picture and not overreact to one loss that came almost exclusively at the hands of one of the best defenses in football having one of their best games and hitting Brady more than he was his all season.

Solder comes back and I like the offensive line core. You have two good young centers, two young rookie guards who looked promising entering their second year and then Kline should probably be the interior swing guy.

I do wonder about right tackle, because you have to think Vollmer’s best days are behind him even if he can stay at right tackle. As for Cannon I think he’s at best a backup right tackle. Both are entering their final years of their deals and will make a combined $11 million. Very possible at least one gets cut, but both seems scary, and it doesn’t seem like they’re ready to throw Cam Fleming in there any time soon.

So yes, right tackle (preferably someone who’s athletic) is a need, but it’s really one of the easier positions to find. Can they squeeze another year out of Vollmer? I’d be fine to try.

Receiver does feel like another priority but I think this is one area people are way overreacting right now. I don’t think we simply throw LaFell by the wayside because he regressed this year. Let’s remember he dealt with a foot injury all season long and some of his tweets today seem to point to that as a reason why he was less effective.

No harm in giving him a full offseason to get healthy and see if he can recapture the magic. There’s no guarantee anyone else is going to come in and “get it” like LaFell did in 2014.

And of course the “deep threat-ers” are out in force today as well, but they need to play to Brady’s strengths. Amendola could be a restructure candidate again, or could just get cut outright. Edelman will turn 30 this year. They need to add some logs to the wide receiver fire, but I’d focus as much on the smart, shifties as the big, run fasties. 

How much of a role is Keshawn Martin ready to take on? Seemed like the Denver game was a chance for him to show something and he didn’t show much. Still, they extended him so they must see some kind of potential. Best case scenario (for him) is that he replaces Amendola in the slot), but I’d kinda prefer to maybe look for some more size inside.

One free agent I really liked coming out who has been getting thrown around today is Mohammad Sanu. Yes, he’s a Rutgers guy but I think he’d be a dynamic threat the Pats could use in a number of ways.

Another area to look long and hard at is running back. The Pats had no running game against the Broncos and were completely one dimensional. Blount is a free agent and while I’d take him back I still think he’s better in a 1B closer role. Dion Lewis will be back along with James White so you have to like the receiving back depth. I mean, if Lewis was healthy the Pats would be in the Super Bowl, I have no doubt.

So that leaves a 1A back who can get those early tough yards and loosen things up. Not talking anything crazy, just like what Stevan Ridley did. That could be a draft position. Still curious about Tyler Gaffney too.

Defensively I think the main focus is extending Hightower first, maybe Collins as well. But definitely Hightower and unfortunately that will probably come as a harsh reality to Chandler Jones. I’d re-sign Tarrell Brown after he looked pretty good last summer, but with major paydays coming to the front seven there won’t be much big spending elsewhere on that side of the ball. Coleman and Johnson showed good promise and Ryan/Butler was legitimate starters.

Mayo is likely gone, but I could see him back on a vet minimum kind of deal because he’s not going to have much of a market. Remember he could get some pop back a full two years removed from the torn patellar tendon. Not holding my breath on his resurgence though, so if there’s one position to consider in the upper half of the draft on defense it’s linebacker.

Remember, to turn in the season we turned in with so many guys not only on IR, but walking wounded in almost every key spot, is so so impressive. Maybe some will see that as a cop out or excuse, but the Patriots lost more man games to injury than any other team and still came within a two-point conversion from going back to the Super Bowl. No other team could’ve done that.

With better injury luck next year it’s hard to see who will stand in the Pats way in the AFC.

Which Hoodie Should Bill Belichick Wear in the AFC Championship?

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As you’re all probably aware by now, I track Bill Belichick’s game day attire and in recent years as it’s come to light, I believe more and more that somehow I have a direct line to whoever chooses his wardrobe.

Last week was another prime example when I said BB should wear the “Hot Jacket” that he was 9-1 in despite it likely being winter conditions that might require something warmer. Yet there was BB on Sunday, wearing that Hot Jacket and moving to 10-1 in it.

It was similar in both SB46 and SB49 when my pregame picks magically ended up on BB. Let’s see if we can keep that streak going this weekend.

Things are a little more complicated this week because Belichick actually wore that same Hot Jacket the last time the Pats were in Denver for the AFC Championship and they lost. Still, Belichick is now 16-6 in the Hot Jacket, making it his second-most-worn gameday attire only to the famous Gray Reebok Hoodie with the sleeves cut off (he was 31-9 in that).

Here’s a quick look back at what BB has worn in AFC Championships:

BB hasn’t worn gray at all this season and that’s probably for the best since he’s 3-2 in that color. He’s 3-1 in Blue and with temps expected in the 30s/40s it’s likely going to need a hoodie or some layers under the Hot Jacket.

If he goes with a blue hoodie he’s worn three different ones this season:

  • 2015 Nike Hoodie: 1-1, Win over Giants, loss in Denver.
  • 2014 Nike Hoodie: 1-1, Win over Bills, loss to Eagles
  • 2013 Nike Crewneck: 1-1, Win over Tenn, Loss to Jets

Each one has it’s own issues, but all things considered there was only one truly epic, legacy win this season and that came against the Giants. That leads me to pick the 2015 Blue Nike Hoodie.

Yes, they lost in Denver with him in that one, but we also finally got the Eli Manning monkey off our back with it as well. 2015 has been impossible to define outside of its injuries. But wins over the Giants, Chiefs and then pulling this one out over the Peyton/Broncos would truly define this 2015 team. Thus the 2015 hoodie makes the most sense.

The Hot Jacket is still a reasonable second choice, but the weather is likely not going to make that the most comfortable selection. And if he must go with a Blue Winter Jacket, so be it, he’s 1-0 in those, but let’s just hope he keeps the 2015 Hoodie underneath.

So let’s all cross our fingers he’s wearing this hoodie below!

Tom Brady, Patriots’ offense built to adapt

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Tom Brady, Patriots’ offense built to adapt

One of those great reads that really gives insight into what makes the Patriots offense with Brady so special. What would fans rather have? Sitting on the “Belichick can’t draft WRs” line or running an offense that is near impossible to stop once it’s going. Loved the line about Edelman “getting it” because he was a college quarterback. The search for more weapons will continue this offseason.

New England Patriots Gameplan: AFC Championship at Denver Broncos

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This is the tenth AFC Championship the Patriots have gone to under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but for me this one feels different. I’ve touched a lot upon how many things would come full circle for TB/BB with a win this weekend, and maybe that’s why I’ve been grumpy and had trouble sleeping all week.

To send Manning off into the sunset, along with the disappointing previous playoff losses in Denver, would truly be poetic for the Brady/Belichick Dynasty. What else is really hanging over their head? And what better way to possibly end Manning’s career than the way it started in his first AFC Championship in 2003, losing to the Patriots?

The Pats are favored. They’re a totally different team than the one that had a 21-7 lead in the fourth-quarter before Harper’s Muff opened the door for a Brock Osweiler comeback. And the Broncos have some key pieces back as well, but the biggest focus is of course Peyton Manning. He’s torn my heart out far too many times to write him off, no matter how much of a shell of his former self he is.

Most of the Patriots confidence comes from how the two teams looked in the divisional round. The battered Steelers had little trouble moving the ball in Denver and once again it took a late-game turnover to give the Broncos new life. The Patriots looked healthy and formidable. But this is all about one game, where anything can happen on any given play.

There’s plenty to digest in this one, here’s my gameplan.

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Offensive Gameplan

Spread ‘em out and light ‘em up. We’re under no false impressions about what makes this offense go: 12/11/87. When those three are in sync the Pats are near-impossible to stop. But that doesn’t mean they’ll be flawlessly clicking for 60 minutes on Sunday and that’s where things get interesting.

When you look at what the Patriots have done in recent history against this Denver defense, it’s hard to think they’ll struggle to move the ball. They’ll have their moments where they sputter, but the biggest key is finishing in the red zone with touchdowns. That’s what got Pittsburgh beat last week.

You wonder if Wade Phillips will juggle some things up, such as putting Talib on Gronk as Greg Bedard suggested. Chris Harris is reportedly a gametime decision and he’s a huge piece to Denver’s secondary. Without him, there will be plenty to attack, especially with Edelman.

But once again the dark horse is James White, who still seems poised for a huge game. I thought that last week as well, and he did chip in a 29 yard catch and run, but had just three targets and one carry.

The scary thing is that it’s all right there for the taking, but the only thing that can stop the Patriots offense is the Patriots. We’ve licked our chops before games like this plenty of times – knowing the defense was there to be had, only to have a fluky early play that changes the course of the game or puts the Patriots on their heels for one reason or another.

So if this game is straightforward, the Pats should in all likelihood win. But if it gets weird – turnovers, strange deflections and bounces (things that have often happened in Denver to the Pats), the Broncos will be sitting and waiting to pounce on any mistake just as they have all season long.

Score early. Score often. And don’t stop scoring until the clock hits zero. If they hit 30 points I don’t think the Broncos can match, but it’s going to take clean and fearless play. That starts with a strong start.

Defensive Gameplan

Hightower and Collins. Those might be the only two guys I care about in this game. If they can suck it up and be effective for 60 minutes, I like the Pats’ chances to shut down the Broncos offense. Or at least hold them under 20 points.

If they’re ineffective or have to leave the game for Jonathan Freeny and Darius Fleming, the door will be wide open for the Broncos to start gashing us.

The defensive game plan isn’t all that different than last week, when the Pats could just focus on the run and the short zones and force the quarterback to hit long passes to have success. The bonus is no one needs to spy Peyton so that puts an extra body in the flat to destroy dump offs and crossers, or blitz. That player is likely Jamie Collins.

It’s strange that this is the exact opposite approach the Pats took against Peyton Manning as recently as last season. Now instead of daring the Broncos to run you’re daring them to pass.

I am okay with the same matchups we saw in pass coverage last time – Ryan on Thomas, Butler on Sanders. I know Ryan has had some struggles against bigger receivers recently, but honestly as long as he doesn’t give up any big gainers to Thomas, the Pats will be okay. He must tackle and not give up the yards-after-catch.

The small but important part are Denver’s third and fourth receivers matching up with Justin Coleman. Coleman was excellent last week against the Chiefs, but a poor performance this week and the Broncos could sneak out a couple big plays that help their cause.

Still I think it’s an eight-man box game, with Chung down low to help snuff out the run game. Having seen the zone blocking scheme once already is a good advantage for the defense, especially rookie Malcom Brown. That might be the only big takeaway from the first matchup.

It’s hard not to think this game will come down to the defense needing a stop as much as every Pats fan would love a stress-free blow out. The Pats got two game-ending interceptions last year on their way to the Super Bowl title and they very well could need one this weekend. But the bigger the lead the bigger the pressure on Peyton Manning to start throwing, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pats race out to double digits to see Brock Osweiler make an appearance.

But again, Hightower and Collins are the key. If they’re in, the Broncos will struggle to run and that is the engine of their offense. But what is of most concern is the defense’s ability to continue to stop the run in the fourth quarter when the Denver air starts to play a factor. By that point there must be a significant lead. Because if there isn’t, and Hightower/Collins are running out of steam or not on the field, the momentum could take a serious turn in the Broncos’ favor.

Playing Peyton is not about fooling him. He’s going to know what you’re trying to do. Now, the Pats can show their hand and make Peyton beat them with hard throws. This is why man defense is so vital against him and why the Pats were trounced in 2013 once Talib went down. Reading zones, throwing to open areas, that’s what Manning can still do. But force him to throw into a tight window, where it will be contested, is the perfect thing for this Denver passing offense.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Collins and Hightower: They are the Gronk and Edelman of the defense and with the way the matchup is lining up, they might even be the more important duo when it comes to getting a win this weekend. Both are battling injuries, but if they can suck it up for this game they’ll have two weeks to rest. There’s nothing more important than keeping the Broncos’ run game in check. Collins could be a big factor with his pass rush. Think about it, we want Peyton Manning to throw on us!! Strange days.

2. Brady be Brady: If Brady is on in this game it’s hard to see the Patriots losing. Can’t imagine a 3TD, 0 INT performance where the Broncos magically go toe-to-toe with the Pats’ offense. Now how does Brady get off his game traditionally? By getting away from what he does best. That shouldn’t be a problem this week. There’s nothing to overthink. And unless the Broncos have some special new defensive twists, the Pats will move the ball. This is a legacy game for Brady and Belichick and I hope/expect they’ll both be at their best.

3. Offensive Balance: The Steelers had more success on the ground than we expected last week, and it’s vital that the Pats, in their desire to let Brady be Brady, don’t become one-dimensional. If the Pats can get a lead, they must start to shorten the game to strangle the Broncos chances. That’s why a Steven Jackson-led ground attack in the second half is just what we need. Jackson has shown good burst but just hasn’t found the holes just yet. If the Pats are to get to the Super Bowl Jackson will be vital in finishing off Denver.

4. Tackle: A simple fundamental thing the Patriots usually excel at, as demonstrated against the Chiefs last week. Wrap up and tackle the backs and receivers. Don’t give them YAC. Punish them, especially Thomas and Sanders and their mistakes will only compound. Make them earn every yard. Because no one is convinced this Broncos team can win a tight game that isn’t handed to them with a turnover. They’ve lived on the edge all season long and pulled out more than they lost. The more they’re hit, the more they have to earn, the more I see them deflating from the moment.

5. 60 Minutes: This is always a key to a playoff game. We’ve seen far too many Patriots games that don’t go exactly as expected. Ones that come down to the last play and take everything the Pats got. But we know the Patriots never flinch and are incredibly patient. If only their fans could be as well. There have been plenty of fluky moments over the years in Denver… bad bounces, bad calls, bad decisions. The Pats must keep the hammer down regardless and we know they will. We can’t just expect them to show up and be handed the conference championship. They’re going to have to earn every first down and point.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Broncos 17