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Thursday Pats Stat Pack

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Now that we’re a quarter of the way into the season I feel comfortable diving into some of Football Outsiders’ DVOA stats and the early numbers for the Pats are pretty outstanding. 

Remember, these numbers are adjusted for the matchup and situation, so go easy on the “Pats haven’t played anyone good” outrage.

First we have our overall DVOA on both sides of the ball, where the offense is hitting a level that puts it on par with Brady’s MVP seasons of 2007 and 2010. Defensively, they’re better overall but a little worse against the run, though I’d say that’s party by design.

Here’s a closer look at how they’re matching up with various receiving threats:

The improvement against tight ends is what stands out most, while there a bit of drop replacing Revis with Butler, the rest is pretty much the same. And again, they’ve been better overall.

Finally comes what I call the “bend-don’t-break chart” where they’re looking far less bendy after last week’s performance against the Cowboys. We’ll see how that holds up.

Patriots vs. Cowboys All-22 Review: Defense Edition

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Lots to like in this game even though the Cowboys were without Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and others.

The headline has to be the heavy dose of press man coverage. Everyone thought this would be a zone defense after Revis and Browner walked but that has not been the case and personally I’m thrilled. You just can’t play zone defense and expect to stop a good QB.

But especially nice was to see the defense being aggressive against a lesser quarterback, when they’d often just sit back in zone and wait for mistakes against these kind of guys in the past.

Here are some general observations on a small sample size:

Logan Ryan
 was the regular CB with Butler, but in sub packages he came off for Brown in the slot and Coleman in the outside. I think this might be because Ryan is probably the best against the run of that group, but is more limited in coverage perhaps. Coleman continues to get chances and looks like he belongs. He’s feisty and was one of my favorite Patriots fits coming out in this draft.

Dominique Easley
 continues to impress me more against the run than the pass, which isn’t really what we expected. He’s just so fast off the ball that he has an instant leverage advantage on an offensive lineman looking to pull. He’s just so disruptive in those situations (see below), but when he’s straight-up pass rushing he wasn’t really winning, at least not like Sheard did a couple times.

Malcom Brown
 had his best game as a pro, holding strong at the point of attack but also being active on the move. It’s a good sign that he’s starting to show positive signs. He tied with Branch for leading defensive tackle snaps with 23.

Jamie Collins was everywhere in this one. Hard to pick out just one play illustrating how he dominates in every facet, but look at the screen shot below and know Collins makes that tackle for a 3-yard gain. Could’ve gone for 30 if he wasn’t so athletic in beating blockers.

McCourty was used on Witten and they doubled him with Jordan Richards quite a few times as well. Not really as outside the norm for McCourty as I might’ve thought. We saw him manning up tight ends last year, with Antonio Gates one example that comes to mind.

I don’t want to keep hammering a guy coming back from injury but didn’t see much out of Mayo in his 29 snaps. If Hightower is out for a while I have real concerns about who’s going to be next to Collins. Mayo still has okay speed, but is generally pretty easily blocked and doesn’t really make much of an impact. Maybe it’s just being next to Collins anyone would look average. But there’s just a lack of strong direct force from Mayo, if that makes sense. Not so much tentative, just a step behind where he was and unable to navigate the wash.

Jabaal Sheard is such a beast I’m not sure how much longer he’s playing less than Ninkovich. He’s the perfect weapon for this defense and if you want to talk about offsetting the loss of Revis, he’s your guy.

It was nice to see the defense go down to the end of the game playing man coverage and not sitting back in prevent zone like they often have in the past. They weren’t quite as aggressive and mixed in some Cover 2, but still had a majority of man coverage concepts.

I keep coming back to one thing – why haven’t the Patriots committed like this to pass rush about five years ago? Now we’re seeing more and more defensive personnel with one or even no defensive tackles. Just the LBs and LB/DE hybrids lining up all over the place and causing havoc getting to the QB. This is why the defense is better now, I don’t care who the corners are. 

Pats Posits Tuesday Edition: Around the League and Is the Pressure off TB/BB After SB49?

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Getting ready to jump into the All-22 as soon as it’s posted and looking forward to focusing on Dallas’ defensive effort to stop the Patriots as well as the Pats’ usage of Devin McCourty
 on defense as it seems his role is evolving a bit.

– One thing that’s been on my mind is how winning Super Bowl 49 seems to have taken some of the pressure of TB and BB and now they’re just able to relax and do what they do. Maybe I’m reading too much into it, or maybe it’s just my own personal feelings, but even with the Deflategate stuff there’s a renewed sense of calm around this Patriots team. Or perhaps it’s just renewed faith that what they’re doing works. Hopefully it continues to translate into the winter months.

– Great win by the Bengals this past weekend, coming back on Seattle to move to 5-0. I know they’ll never be Super Bowl favorites until they win a playoff game but in a league where there’s not as much parity as some might have you believe, I think the Bengals are going about it the right way. 

Too many teams are in a constant cycle of hiring coaches, drafting quarterbacks, throwing those quarterbacks immediately into the flames and then as soon as they fail everyone is out and the process starts over. But the Bengals have stuck with their coach and quarterback despite whatever flaws the national media wants to point out. 

There are only so many truly elite quarterbacks out there. It’s impossible to try to model a franchise after the Patriots. Instead the Bengals are smartly sticking more to a Giants model. No, they don’t have Brady or Manning but they’ve had enough continuity that they’ve settled in as a very good football team. 

They’ve also drafted well and in all the right spots in a similar way that I would do it. Only take a non-linemen in the first round if they’re a can’t miss (AJ Green). Don’t reach for a quarterback. Focus on winning the trenches and you’ll be okay. The Bengals might just have an Eli-Giants Super Bowl run in them one of these years if they just stay the course. They have all the right talent at the right spots, just comes down to their quarterback putting together three or four mistake-free games. 

Too many teams don’t try to build this kind of team, instead blowing things up over and over because they don’t turn into a 12-win team season after season. 

– The next three games will tell us a lot about the Patriots. We really need to see them handle adversity and I’d bet some is coming with the Colts, Jets and Dolphins coming up. At the quarter point of the season we’re just starting to understand what the Patriots have – and if they stay healthy I think they could be a better overall team than last year’s edition. But there will be a team to poke some holes in the Patriots unbeatable facade and how they respond is what will define this edition of the Pats.

– Are the Broncos the worst 5-0 team in league history? Look, their defense is great but I don’t think anyone is scared of Peyton Manning as the weather gets worse. Do the Broncos even want homefield in the playoffs? Seems their best bet would be to hope they have to go to Indy’s dome. Still, I can’t wait to see the chess battle between Brady and the Broncos D next month.

– I don’t even really dislike any of the Colts players, no, I want a win this weekend specifically for their management, ownership and group of outspoken self-righteous fans and media members who were so vocal during the offseason. I will try to refrain from overconfidently thinking this will be an easy beatdown. The Colts are bound to put together a good game against us sooner or later, but I’d be shocked if New England doesn’t bring their A-plus angry game this Sunday.

Pats Posits: Lil’ Bit of Adversity in Dallas

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It had pretty much been smooth sailing for the New England Patriots
through the first three games of their season. But in Dallas things weren’t quite as easy as they had been and the offense struggled for extended periods to protect Tom Brady
.

The quick throws weren’t there early on but the Patriots offense remained patient and eventually found spots to exploit Dallas’ defense. 

The Patriots’ defense looked every bit as dominant as you’d hope they’d look going against this depleted Cowboy offense. But you can never dismiss a great defensive performance in the NFL and that was what this was.

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There were plenty of times no-name QBs threw for lots of yards on the Patriots defenses of 2010-2012. This is a different defense, and one that is possibly better than last year’s because of their array of pass rush options. 

There were questions about the run defense coming into this one, but it’s clear the Pats can stop the run when they want to. All the edge players were strong and the inside tackles didn’t give up a lot of ground. 

Most exciting of all was seeing the Pats play some press man like they did last year. They’ve played plenty of man defense this year, but haven’t tried to be physical at the line of scrimmage. That changed against the Cowboys and never allowed Weeden to find a rhythm through the air.

Now the stage is set for a visit to the Colts on prime time next Sunday night (followed by my yearly Pats excursion to the Jets game). It will be a fun two weeks of football. But first, the Posits…

Dont’a Hightower and Nate Solder.
That’s all I really care about coming out of this one. Yes, we saw Brady take a beating and bounce back strong, but there hasn’t really been a significant injury in a while. Hightower looked in clear pain, and I can’t imagine something like a broken rub doesn’t take at least a couple weeks. Solder spoke to the media afterwards, so that’s a good sign. And really, Cannon wouldn’t be that bad.

No season is without adversity and this team has yet to really face any. On one hand you’re just waiting for something bad to happen, but sigh relief when no one gets carted off. Hopefully Hightower is back sooner than later and the health train can keep chugging.

A lot to like from the defense, who have really been sparked by Jabaal Sheard. He’s the finisher they’ve really needed to rotate in with Ninkovich and Chandler Jones. Sheard gets used all over the place. All were strong on the edges and with their rushes.

Jamie Collins is on everyone’s next superstar list and he keeps living up to those expectations. He’s simply all over the place on defense, making plays at every level with raw athleticism, speed and length.

Hard not to love the Pats showing some aggressive press man coverage and actually doing okay with it. That will need further evaluation this week. Seemed like there might’ve been more McCourty closer to the LOS, and Jordan Richards got more playing time this week after a strong debut against the Jags.

Malcolm Butler seemed like he made Terrance Williams invisible. Now it’s Terrance Williams, but still.

Jerod Mayo is likely about to be thrown into the fire and I’m not sure he’s ready for it. As soon as Bostic is ready to go, it should make for an interesting situation. Healthy Mayo is still better than Jonathan Freeny, but not by much.

Need to dive into the numbers this week, but I have some concerns about the short yardage game on both sides of the ball. 

Wasn’t a big Easley game but I saw him blow up a run pretty well. Curious the snaps on him and the rest.

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Dion Lewis
, I’m running out of things to say. What an electric, exciting player and he just keeps blowing minds and breaking ankles! Brady targeted him 11 times, more than Gronk and Edelman combined. Every time you think he’s about to go down he gets three more yards.

I’m okay with continuing the OL rotation going a bit longer, it’s why they’ll be fine has to miss time. Cannon catches a lot of crap but when he’s had to step in and start he’s been fine. It’s the experimenting at guard and the quick rotation in at tackle when he plays poorly. 

That’s a good Cowboys front and they had a good gameplan. All the tackles were beat, but it’s the inside I’m more curious to focus on. The OL will be fine.

Edelman had a couple brain farts and a couple clutch plays. Bit of a trend this season, but he’ll clean it up. Brandon LaFell will come back at a good time as neither Keshawn Martin nor Aaron Dobson can replicate his presence.

Yes, I turned the page to the Colts pretty quick. The North East Remembers.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 5 at Dallas Cowboys

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The Patriots are done with their early bye week and back in action against the injury-depleted Dallas Cowboys. Yes, this is far from the Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Tony Romo and Dez Bryant matchup it might’ve looked like early last summer. Now it’s
Tom Brady
vs. Brandon Weeden
, Jason Witten and not much else on either side of the ball.

Still, the Cowboys took the Saints to overtime last weekend, and now hosting a Patriots team that is coming off their bye week could translate to a closer game than the Pats -8.5 line might indicate.

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Here’s the gameplan!

Offensive Gameplan

The potential loss of Sean Lee looms large in this one for the Cowboys as their defense looked in disarray after he left the Saints game with a concussion. The Patriots offense knows how to expose defensive miscommunication unlike any other team in the league, so the Cowboys must be prepared for the breakneck pace of the Pats.

There’s really no reason for the Patriots to do anything other than what they’ve been doing – attack through the air and don’t stop until a lead is established. That means rolling our Dion Lewis for a large role once again and then handing the ball off to LeGarrette Blount
to seal the win.

It’s the Rob Gronkowski
and Julian Edelman
quick-passing show, with Danny Amendola coming through with clutch catches when called upon. No one has had an answer for Gronk/Edelman yet and it doesn’t seem like Dallas has the personnel to come up with something innovative.

The answer isn’t hard to see, it’s just nearly impossible to execute. The cornerbacks must must must disrupt the timing of the offense by jamming Gronk and Edelman at the line.

The hot routes must be taken away with creative zone drops by the defensive front. And finally Dallas must then be able to generate some kind of pass rush with only three rushers. 

Or perhaps the Cowboys should load up against the pass early on and allow the Pats to run on them early. If Brady and the passing game don’t establish an early rhythm perhaps they will continue to sputter.

None of these are airtight and easily executable answers, they’re simply the only things left to possibly try against the Patriots’ offense outside of just hoping they come out flat and stay flat.

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This one’s for you, Greg Hardy.

Defensive Gameplan

Despite being somewhat of a punchline, Brandon Weeden looked decent in spurts against the Saints, but this one has all the makings of a “make Weeden beat us” gameplan.

Which means that the Pats might actually try to stop the run this week. Generally this would mean more of Siliga and Branch, while working in Brown and Hicks (maybe) while Easley might be reserved for third down pass rushing duties only.

Though Easley does make a pretty good impact in the run game, not with size, but with his disruption. He’s one guy to monitor but the other is Jerod Mayo, because if they’re going to be in more regular (4 DBs) personnel, that could mean a spike for his playing time. 

I’ve been tough on Mayo over the bye week because I just don’t see him moving like he used to. Maybe it will come back, but the clock it ticking. This week might be the first time we get a sense of how extensively they’re willing to use Mayo or if Jon Bostic was brought in because they don’t think they can lean on Mayo yet.

Overall the Patriots are just about fully healthy this week so we’ll also get a sense of any changes in the secondary they felt needed to be made after some self scouting over the bye. Could Jordan Richards start to see more time? Or how about Justin Coleman? Is Bradley Fletcher going to get another shot?

I’d expect a little more zone defense this week as this is where we’ll see if the new pass rush rotation and depth can pay off. That means Chandler/Ninkovich/Sheard generating push against a very good offensive line. It should be a good barometer of where the pass rush is at.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Stop the Run: Pretty simple really, stop the run, make Brandon Weeden beat us by putting together long, sustained drives through the air without turning the ball over. Does he have that kind of a game in him? All NFL quarterbacks have one or two, even Mark Sanchez did, so you can never rule it out. But it should be a tall task for him, especially if the Pats take away Jason Witten.

2. Keep the Offense Rolling: I used to think there were games where you’d want to come out and “establish the run” but those days are gone. What you need to establish is moving the ball and getting points. There’s little gained by running LeGarrette Blount into a primed defensive front seven only to see him gain 2-3 yards. Wait to roll the Blount until the defense has been loosened up and is on their heels a bit. Get the ball out quick, establish the lead and put even more pressure on Weeden to throw.

3. Take Away Witten: Not a secret that Witten is the best weapon left at Weeden’s disposal and while I don’t like sticking Jamie Collins in coverage too much, he’s the best tight cover guy the Pats have so he’ll see plenty of the reliable veteran tight end. I’d prefer it’s not a blitz game for Collins, instead it would be better to see how well we can generate pressure with just the front four, in whatever combination.

4. Stay Healthy: Maybe I shouldn’t put this as a key but it’s been almost all I can think about this week. The injury bug has hit the NFL iron hard this year and it seems like thus far the Pats are the only team to avoid its wrath. We’re hitting a point in the season where we usually get whacked with an injury too – Wilfork 2013, Mayo 2013/2014 are just a couple that jump to mind. Really I don’t think it’s a stretch to say if the Pats stay healthy there almost no AFC team that can stop them from getting to the Super Bowl, but there’s still a long road to go.

5. Win: How fast will I turn the page from the Cowboys to the Colts if the Pats get an injury-free win? Almost immediately. We all know how much hype there will be over the next week and I can’t wait to get on it. Still the Pats have been almost flawless for the first three games, and they’re somewhat due for some flat play. Maybe they’ll be like the 2007 team and avoid it or be able to overcome it, but I won’t be surprised if this game is closer than everyone thinks.

Where my NFL go?

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Maybe the bye week has gone to my head but is anyone else finding the NFL completely unenjoyable these first few weeks (outside of the Patriots’ games of course)?

Last night’s debacle by the refs is just the cherry on top of what has been a gross start to the NFL season. Big name players getting hurt, teams that were traditionally good are sucking, the new PAT rule is totally in the kickers’ heads and just generally the product on the field has been overwhelming dog shit.

Add in the constant appearances of DraftKings and FanDuel everywhere you look or watch, and now they’re under investigation just four weeks into the season. I don’t know what’s going on but it feels like the NFL is starting to collapse under the weight of their own arrogance and mismanagement.

I’d like to think it all relates to Deflategate. That that controversy was the straw that broke the NFL’s back and now seemingly every team that came out against the Pats or for the NFL is having a run of bad luck, including the overall NFL itself. Despite a ton of weird coincidences, even I can’t truly believe that.

But this is the course the NFL set and really it started in 2004 when every rule change began to be aimed at helping the offense and scoring. This also fed into the fantasy football explosion, but as the years have passed and college football has produced fewer and fewer quarterbacks who are ready for the pro game, the league has become about one thing – having a great QB and really nothing else matters.

We can even look at the 2010 Patriots as an example. They had one of the worst defenses in league if not for all the interceptions they grabbed and they still ended up going 14-2. Think about that, the crappy quarterbacks they faced essentially handed the games to them because they couldn’t stop themselves from turning the ball over.

Now the Patriots travel to Dallas this weekend and while I’m always excited for any Patriots game, this one looks a million times more of a mismatch than we ever thought it would be.

As recently as last year, a Lions-Seahawks games on MNF would have been a well-anticipated matchup. Instead it was largely unwatchable, especially when Detroit had the ball, and then it ended with a great defensive play getting overshadowed by a blown call that decided the game.

I obviously am not a fan of the NFL management and what they’ve done to the game, but it was always something we just went along with because the product on the field was competitive enough across the league that it was enjoyable. 

But now it seems like something has changed. Maybe it’s karma coming around, and not just because of Deflategate, but because of all of the NFL’s duplicity over the years when it came to concussions, domestic violence and its heavy-handed punishments that were consistently tone deaf and only made worse when the NFL had the chance to correct them.

What I do know is that if this course around the league continues and the Patriots stay healthy it’s unlikely any team is going to stop them on the way to San Francisco. They might have a hiccup or two in the coming weeks, but in a weird down year like this, it’s hard not to think it’s just setting the table for another Lombardi run.

At least the Super Bowl will probably be good, assuming it’s the Patriots and either Green Bay or Seattle. Otherwise it will be a snoozer.