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Patriots Internal Free Agents: Offensive Addition

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Coming off their fifth Super Bowl victory, the New England Patriots are in tremendous shape cap-wise, as they have right around 62 million dollars in cap space heading into the 2017 offseason. This cap room gives the Patriots incredible financial flexibility, and lets Bill Belichick, Nick Caserio, and co be as aggressive as they please in free agency. Of course, the Patriots do have several important free agents of their own that need new contracts, and while the majority of those names fall on the defensive side of the ball, the Patriots still have a couple question marks regarding free agents on the offensive side of the ball. Lets take a look at those notable free agents-to-be.

Martellus Bennett: 

  • Age: 30
  • Projected contract (via Spotrac): 3 years, 18 million (6 million average annual salary)
  • Other notable free agent tight end: Jared Cook, Jack Doyle

In a very weak free agent class at tight end, Bennett’s first priority for this offseason is probably getting paid. This narrative is definitely aided by Bennett’s comments following the Super Bowl, in which he jubilantly declared “You know they overpay Super Bowl Champions!” (he did later clarified on Twitter that he was joking, but I don’t know about that). Another quote from Bennett that is rather indicative of what he is thinking regarding his upcoming free agency is, “You come to New England to win, not for the checks.” The pessimist in me thinks that because Bennett got his ring, he is now looking for the major payday that comes following winning the Super Bowl. While it is impossible to tell where Bennett will end up, it sure seems like he is looking to cash in, and it also seems like the Patriots will not be the team to give him the hefty contract he seeks, despite growing concerns over the long-term health of Rob Gronkowski.

Gronkowski counts nearly 30 million against the cap in the next three seasons, so it is hard to imagine a scenario in which the Patriots dole out a contract with an average annual value of around 6 million dollars to another tight end. That just seems like too high of a price for Gronk insurance, especially when considering the stacked pool of tight ends in the 2017 draft, with players like OJ Howard, David Njoku, and Evan Engram all drawing comparisons to current elite NFL tight ends in Greg Olsen and Jordan Reed.

LeGarrette Blount:

  • Age: 30
  • Projected contract (via Spotrac): 3 years, 13 million (4.4 million average annual salary)
  • Other notable free agent running backs: Leveon Bell, Latavius Murray, Eddie Lacy

Blount is an incredibly interesting case to consider. Last offseason, he essentially had no interest whatsoever on the free agent market, and ended up signing with the Patriots on April 12th, 34 days after free agency opened. The Patriots were able to resign Blount for a base salary of just 1 million, an absolute steal considering the season he had in 2016, in which he led all RB’s in touchdowns and finished 8th in rushing yards in the NFL. Because of his success this season, Blount figures to garner far more interest in free agency this season, but the Patriots will most likely not be one of the teams in pursuit. Combine Blount’s age (30) with the lack of value Belichick places on the running back position in free agency (especially aging backs) and the current backfield situation with both James White and Dion Lewis returning in 2017, and it sure seems like unless Blount is willing to take a rather large pay-cut, his time in New England is done.

James Develin: 

Develin resigned with the Patriots last offseason on a one year deal worth up to 750,000 with incentives, and it seems like a similar, albeit slightly more lucrative, contract should be enough for Develin to remain a Patriot. Currently, there are only 6 fullbacks in the NFL that count more than a million against their team’s salary caps, with the highest paid fullbacks in the league, Anthony Sherman and Ryan Hewitt, earning around 2.3 million in average annual salary. With arguably the three best fullbacks in the league hitting free agency in 2017 (Juszczyk, DiMarco, and Develin), it would not be surprising if those numbers are surpassed, so Develin’s potential contract is probably going to rely mostly on the type of contracts Juszczyk and DiMarco sign. Despite this, it certainly appears likely Develin will end up in New England again because of the importance he has in the Patriots running game.

 

Michael Floyd: 

Floyd has been vocal about his desire to return to New England, saying in the days leading up to the Super Bowl,  “I love it here. I hope to be back in Foxborough. I hope that I can make that happen, for sure.’’ Floyd was inactive for both the Super Bowl and AFC Championship Game due to a crowded depth chart at receiver, with the coaching staff opting for Malcolm Mitchell over Floyd. However, because of the good possibility that Danny Amendola will be cut, seeing as he counts nearly 8 million against the 2017, Floyd might have a spot in the receiving corps in 2017. Floyd has shown his ability to be a productive NFL receiver, as he has racked up at least 800 yards every year since his rookie year (not including this season), highlighted by his 1,041 yard sophomore season. With his value severely diminished due to his DUI arrest, it appears a return to New England for Floyd is likely.

Crafting a Patriots Offseason Plan

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The last year has had some crazy Patriots personnel moves and there’s no reason to think this spring will be any different. The Patriots have a bunch of free agents and a bunch of cap space that has to go somewhere.

Will this be another soft defensive reset if they were to lose Logan Ryan, Dont’a Hightower, Alan Branch, Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard? Will those who have now won two Super Bowls seek to maximize their leverage?

As is always the case when we enter a Patriots offseason, anything goes. It might be exciting. It also might hurt. It might be a little scary. That’s the NFL in the free agency age. Especially with cold-hearted Bill Belichick.

Here’s a jumping off point for my views on the Patriots offseason. I’ll expand on each in then coming weeks. Perhaps my feelings will change, but right now, here’s what I think.

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Ranking the Patriots Impending Free Agents

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Dont'a Hightower

Dont’a Hightower

The Patriots are set for a major re-evaluation of their defense this offseason with a number of key free agents that will force them to determine the direction they want to go. The offensive free agents won’t be far behind. Of course, things certainly look a lot easier now (unfortunately) than they did when both Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins were still on the team. Two less major pieces to worry about paying.

And really, the poor overall performance of many of the impending free agents still on the team make it easier too. Again, unfortunately. But of course things can change quickly as the important part of the season and playoffs roll around. A huge playoff performance by one of these players could up their importance and price tag.

We’re at the halfway point of the season, so why not take stock of where we’re at?

One note before we dive in, Malcolm Butler is a restricted free agent. The Patriots should, in my opinion, pursue a long-term extension with him, but the team can easily slap a first round tender for around $3.6 million and retain his rights unless someone wants to give up a first rounder for him, which I wouldn’t entirely rule out.  So for our purposes here, I’m leaving him off this list, but if he was on it he’d be second.

Let’s do it, starting from the lowest priority, counting down to the most important.

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The Best/Worst of the Week in Patriots Posts – 9/17

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JIMMMYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!

What a week, still riding high. Doesn’t get any better than going into hostile territory against an extremely talented Arizona team, and punching them in the the mouth on national TV. I really don’t think I saw one “expert” take the Pats which makes it that much more special.

The only thing that could have made it any more enjoyable was being a fly on the wall of the Goodell household, and witnessing the man of the house hemorrhage as Catanzaro’s kick sailed wide left. Tough luck for the commish.

roger

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Pats Posits: Time to Get the Jimmy Thing Over With

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2016, here we go.

That’s my biggest takeaway from Thursday night’s win/loss (?) over/to the Giants. Yes, there were some injuries to talk about, because those can affect the regular season and there were some interesting performances to consider, but otherwise let’s put a nice little bow on the 2016 preseason and get the Jimmy Garoppolo 2016 Four-Game Tour over with.

On paper, I’m not sure I can remember being more excited about a squad headed into a season. What 2007’s offensive promise was, 2016’s defensive promise is.

I’d put this defense up man-for-man against the hallowed 2003 and 2004 defenses. All are deep, versatile and talented all over.

Now injuries can quickly change things, but going in they have mostly players in their prime, most of them homegrown. And that’s at every position. There’s a sprinkle of hungry and/or misused veterans, who bring just a little of that outside hunger that staves off complacency.

Put it all together and oh boy.

The starting offense is almost as talented on the frontlines, but have their holes and a frightening lack of depth along the offensive line.

So will this be one of those years where the defense has win ’em? Well, unless you’ve been asleep for the Patriots’ last four Super Bowls, it almost always comes down to the defense having to get a stop.

We just hope that Tom Brady comes back in October looking like Tom Brady and Dante Scarnecchia can work his magic one more time and nobody on offense, especially Nate Solder, goes down along the way. Dion Lewis comes back and peaks as we hit the playoffs and number five here we come.

But let’s face it, despite whatever holes we think the Pats have, I promise you every other team has holes that are just as significant, if not bigger. And they don’t have Tom Brady starting Week 5.

All things considered, the Pats are locked and loaded to kick some ass in 2016 so strap in.

Here are the Posits on the preseason finale.

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Will the Black Unicorn mean the return of the 1,000 yard Rusher?

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That’s idiotic, you say, the Patriots haven’t had a 1,000 yard rusher in 4 years, that’s not how their offense functions. BB and McDaniels never feed the rock to an RB enough for that to happen and the short passing game is essentially the running game. The additions they made in their offense (Hogan, Bennett, Washington, Lewis back from ACL) are in the passing game not rushing. And for God’s sakes, the offensive line was atrocious last year, they can’t put on Sunblock, let alone run block (you’re right that was a lazy joke). And now Jimmy G is starting, they’ll load up the box. You’re a dickhead, Conway.

All of those things can be true and there will still be a 1,000-yard rusher on the team.

A bit of history: the last time the Patriots had a 1,000-yard rusher was 2012 with current Detroit Lion and failed Jets experiment, Steven Ridley. Before that, the last 1,000-yard rusher was in 2010 with out-of-the-league Benjarvus Green Ellis. How did those two deadbeats gain 1,000 yards. I’ll give you a hint: it rhymes with “Baron Fernandez and Slob Bonks-out-see”.

That’s right it’s the return of the 2-tight end sets with 2 elite tight ends!

At least on paper, the “Bennett and Gronk” 2 TE set has a fair chance of being better than “Hernandez and Gronk“ (i.e. the most-efficient offense in NFL history according to DVOA). But even if it doesn’t match those levels, it all but guarantees that the Pats running attack will be elite. With Gronk and the Black Unicorn (best nickname in the NFL), the Pats will have dynamic playmakers that also happen to be complete and total football players. They can run block, pass block and run precise routes. BB favorites. Also this creates the perfect set of training wheels for Garropolo.

The reason why this is so important is Garropolo now has options at the line of scrimmage, lots and lots of options. For obvious reasons, two-TE sets with two good-to-great tight ends create more offensive mismatches than any other formation. You can leave both in and run with seven blockers or you can send them both out and have essentially a 4/5 WR set, or you can leave one in to block, send one out on a seam route. This forces a huge decision for defenses pre-snap because they have to declare how they’re going to defend the match-up with their on-field personnel 15 or so seconds before the play begins or risk an incredible mismatch.

Tom Brady eats this type of fear like dripping kale Froyo, Jimmy will eat them like deep dish pizza (he’s from Illinois). And because NFL coaches are a bunch of risk-averse checkers players, they will show their hand and likely bring in safety help.

An extra safety sprints on the field, then another. Very few safeties in the league can handle Gronk or Bennett one-on-one in run blocking. Or if a bolder coach, like Rex decides to leave an extra linebacker on the field to try to maintain some strength against the run, Brady and Garropolo have options: run the ball away from the linebacker, play action to freeze him, or attack him with one of the 20 quick release receivers currently on the roster. And if defenses actually show respect for the run and leave two extra linebackers on the field, Brady and even Garropolo will eat and eat well. Hell, even, Tim Tebow would eat well if he could hit Buzzards Bay.

The last concern is the O-line. 2012 had Solder and Vollmer at the Tackle spots (sound familiar?), Mankins at LG was an upgrade over whoever takes over, but Wendell and Connolly at C and RG are both downgrades to Stork or Andrews and the crew at RG. Scar’s back and the team will run block well. But the truth is that defenses will be so worried about getting burned that running lanes should amply open up. Scar will be declared a genius and he is, but not because of how well the Pats run this season, that will all be because of Bennett’s addition.

So all of this boils down to the question: who gets those touches. Who better to follow in the footsteps of Green Ellis and Ridley than LeGarrette Blount? In fact, that’s the kind of runner he is, he will have a hole at the line of scrimmage and we all know he has straight line speed that can take it 50 yards. Talk about hot takes: LaGarrette Blount on the docket for a cool g.

A few Residual notes: a.) 25.7% of Green Ellis’ 3,914 career yards came during the ’10 campaign! #FeelTheBenj!

b.) Steven Ridley has rushed for 2,907 yards in his career. He gained 1263 in 2012. 43% of his career happened that year.

c.) If Isaiah Crowell becomes available, and by all accounts he will, the Pats should pounce. He’s a perfect compliment to their RBs and would allow them to move on from Blount. He’d likely have 1,500 All purpose as a competent receiver as well.

1st POST MEA CULPA: I’d like to apologize to my family. I had a goal to quit the NFL and I fell off the wagon, barely made it through training camp last year, Goddammit I was right back in the mix to hear Mike Tomlin bitch about communications systems. Helped that TB beat Goodell in court. I love football and hate the NFL. Anyway, I’m back I understand that makes me some kind of hypocrite, but I’m good with it, I hope you are too. Gonna be a great season! And now we get to evaluate Jimmy.

Just more fuel to Brady’s fire.

Tweets of Note from Patriots OTAs

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We got our first glimpse of the 2016 Patriots on Thursday, albeit a depleted squad that was missing a lot of heavy hitters for whatever reason. Still, there’s some fun stuff to consider as we still sit two months out from the start of training camp.

Here are some tweets that stood out:

That’s a lot of firepower, but if you’re into panicking about guys missing from a practice in late May be my guest. Gronk, Harmon, Vollmer and Branch are probably the biggest surprises. There were no reports of offseason surgery for any of them, but at least with Gronk, there’s no need to risk any of these vets. They all know what they’re doing and at this point it’s probably better to let the new guys and rookies get more reps, especially with the first team.

That’s my quarterback. Enjoy it folks, it’s not going to last forever and we’re getting closer and closer to the end with each passing offseason. But for now… WE STILL GOT TFB!

Never put too much weight into any of this, but generally it sounds like they all looked pretty good and it’s always nice to see a rookie cornerback pop up with an interception in one of his first practices.

End of May? Don’t matter. BB wants everyone locked in at all times and this was probably a surprising first lesson for many newbies.

So, so excited to see what kind of damage Gronk and Bennett will do together this year.

Holy hoodie, how fast do DJ Foster’s legs go? That right there is some quickness.

Poetry in motion.