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Patriots Training Camp Battle Preview: Wide Receiver

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After left tackle, there’s no more interesting position on the Patriots roster than wide receiver. After a major turnover in 2013, the Pats are once again looking at another evolution in 2018. Tom Brady hasn’t ever blinked before, managing to win even when those catching his throws had unimpressive names like Reche Caldwell, Kenbrell Thompkins and Brandon Lloyd.

Now, at 40, Brady will once again have to find a new set of go-to targets after the departures of Danny Amendola and Brandin Cooks, the pending suspension of 32-year-old Julian Edelman and the recurring absences of promising 2016 rookie Malcolm Mitchell. The Patriots have done well to prepare for this transition, going back into last season, but who clicks with Brady and can stay healthy is a near-impossible thing to predict.

Here’s a rundown of the wide receiver camp battle and who the favorites are to become the next clutch receivers.

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Pats Posits: BB & His Pancakes Take Us Early Into the Void

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After a flurry of real news to write about last week during minicamp, this week has seen a return to the dead of the offseason. This has been highlighted by Belichick canceling the last two days of OTAs while everyone was talking about some $60 pancakes he ordered at a hotel.

This is the offseason. The real offseason, the worst part. There shouldn’t be much football action as teams take the final month before training camp to get some well-needed rest and relaxation before it’s pedal to the metal from August-January.

Here’s a bunch of random Pats Posits as we regroup and begin to prepare for summer, and with it, another training camp.

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Report: Danny Amendola Signing with Dolphins

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It looks like the end of an era with reports coming out that Danny Amendola is cashing in on a two-year, $12 million deal with $8.5 million guaranteed with the Dolphins. I think most of us just assumed after three-straight years of taking pay cuts to remain in New England that the Pats and their clutch slot receiver would find a way to tack on another year, but alas Miami was ready to pay the kind of dough the Pats wouldn’t.

Danny reduced his 2017 salary from $5 million down to $1.25 million. Now the 32-year-old receiver will make well over that as he concludes his career.

Amendola had one of the most fascinating careers of a Patriots wide receiver in the last 17 years. He came in as the supposed Wes Welker replacement but battled injuries in his first season that only empowered those who believed he was too injury prone to be the go-to slot receiver that Welker was. Julian Edelman emerged into that role leading some to label Amendola a bust, but slowly and consistently Amendola began to rack up big catches in big moments.

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Too Many Cooks Takes: Was First-Year Receiver a Disappointment?

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfZkaVPwOPE

I’ve tried to take a break from the old cycle of “reporter makes dumb take, everyone responds with outrage thereby giving said reporter the attention they’re looking for” but it hasn’t been easy the last couple of days. The pinnacle was Adam Jones’ take that re-signing Brandon Bolden was somehow a bad thing.

Now I could go off on how stupid this is in a longform article — how the Patriots must build a 90-man roster and a beloved veteran who’s a special teams stud and can fill in at any running back role at a veteran minimum salary is an easy slam dunk, but again, I’m trying to break the cycle and the only way to do that is not to play their game. That take wasn’t even based in football reality, but another one kind of was.

That take came from Ben Volin, who I also ignore for the most part, that the Pats should extend Brandin Cooks or, if he won’t play ball, cut him outright and re-allocate his $8.5 million cap hit. This was a jumping off point to debate how good Cooks really was in his first year with the Pats. On paper, 65 catches for 1082 yards and six touchdowns looks pretty damn solid, especially for a first-year receiver with the Patriots.

However I do think it’s a more nuanced discussion than simply slapping down Cooks’ stats and feeling great about his season. His arrival as a “deep threat” raised expectations for the offense, but without Julian Edelman, some fundamental flaws came to light over the course of the season, that Cooks couldn’t solve.

Let’s take a deeper look and ask if a thousand-yard season can be a disappointment?

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Breaking Down Patriots’ 3rd Down Nose Dive on Offense

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Third down is the most critical down in football and usually the Patriots are one of the best offenses in the league. In the last four seasons they ranked 6th (2014) and 4th (2016) when they won the Super Bowl and when they didn’t they ranked 16th (2013) and 11th (2015).

This season the loss of Julian Edelman loomed large for then third down offense. Edelman was then most targeted and reliable receiver with the game on the line. However early in then season the Pats didn’t fare too badly,

Through the first eight games, the Pats ranked 3rd on third down, converting 45.9 percent of their chances.

But since then they’ve fallen off dramatically, to the point where over the last four games they’ve converted just 30.2 percent of their third downs, second-worst in the league. All of Tom Brady‘s five interceptions in the last four games have come on third down.

These struggles are coming at the wrong time of year. Is this a critical flaw? Is there any hope in sight? Let’s take a deeper look.

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Brady’s Favorite Receiver (The Open One) Is Back!

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When Julian Edelman was lost for the season the first question on my mind was who was going to make the tough catches on third down. Brady had grown to depend on Edelman in the toughest spots. From 2013-2016, Edelman had 135 targets on third down, 40 more than second-place Rob Gronkowski.

If there was a player for defenses to key off of on third down, it was clearly Edelman. But now, without Edelman, the Patriots are spreading the ball around, with Brady becoming reacquainted with the days when his favorite receiver wasn’t Edelman or even Wes Welker, it was the open one.

Now the Patriots have a balanced third-down attack that has seen little regression from where things left off in 2016 with Edelman still tearing up the field.

Here’s how the 2016 season looked for third down targets.

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Is 2017 Most Balanced Patriots Passing Attack Ever?

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The Patriots offense suffered a devastating blow in preseason when Julian Edelman tore his ACL. Edelman was the engine that made the offense go, the guy who made the tough catches in the biggest moments and without him there wouldn’t be two more banners hanging over Gillette Stadium

However this season the Patriots were uniquely prepared for such a loss. They added two very good running backs to go with two they already had, and gave up a first round pick for the explosive Brandin Cooks. Even after Malcolm Mitchell, a promising rookie from 2016, started the season on IR, the Patriots still had enough depth with Chris Hogan and in-season acquisition Phillip Dorsett to keep the passing offense going.

With their best receiver missing the Patriots have almost become harder to defend. We all remember the original Tom Brady motto — that his favorite receiver was the open one. Well in 2017 that might be truer than ever, as Brady has spread the ball around far more evenly than any recent season. This has made the Patriots offense even harder to stop because there’s no one to key on.

Let’s take a closer look this devastating balance that is making 2017 one of the most unique years of the Brady offense and how it stacks up historically.

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