defense

Two Key Plays: Patriots Defense at the end of the first half

September 19, 2017 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots’ third down defense is off to a strong start in 2017. After losing three key pass rushers this last offseason, the youngsters consisting of Trey Flowers, Adam Butler, Dietrich Wise and Cassius Marsh have shown consistent disruption getting after the quarterback early on.

After two games, the Patriots defense is tied for 10th on third down at a rate of 34.8 percent. Historically this is even better than the 2015 (37.3, ) and 2016 (36.9), defenses that finished ranked 10th and 7th respectively. Yes, it’s just two games, but it’s a good start and nice to see an injection of youth and promise at a critical area. One of need especially this year.

Let’s take a look at a two-down sequence to see how the third, and fourth-down defense allowed the Patriots to pull away toward victory.

As you can see below, the situation is that it’s the end of the first half and the Saints are just outside the redzone, down by two scores. Whether or not the game stays close depends on the Saints getting points here before getting the ball to start the second half. It’s a third and three, favorable distance for an offense, who can run or pass.

The Patriots appear to be in man defense, and with Elandon Roberts still in the game, they still have a pretty good run-defending linebacker behind a light front. Still, they’re clearing expecting pass.

Patriots Defensive Focus: Winning First Down

September 9, 2017 by Mike Dussault

As you’d expect there’s plenty of panic about the Patriots’ defense after Thursday night’s blow out loss. Last year the defense led the league in points against but people were still worried that they actually were not good. So after giving up the most points and yards under Belichick it’s understandable that the defense is a major focal point of the ire.

Discerning between what problems are real and what problems can be chalked up to the first game of the season on a short week against a good opponent is the key here and when you really break things down the real problems are obvious. Whether or not the Patriots have the personnel at this point to fix those problems will be a point of debate, but I think we can all agree that the defense is always in a somewhat experimental phase in September and that they’re always far more sound down the line, even when they have to throw guys like Joe Vellano and Chris Jones in the heart of their defense early on (2013).

One point that’s very much worth pointing out is how effective Kansas City was at exploiting the communication issues on defense. Eric Mangini said when he was with the Browns, a big offensive focus for going against the Patriots was having multiple shifts and motions that forced the Patriots to adjust their calls. He called the Patriots defense “rule-based” so every movement by the offense required 11 adjustment calls on defense. The more movement the more chance at miscommunication, and the Chiefs seemed to do that repeatedly.

Their pre-snap motion seemed to mix the Patriots up quite a few times, resulting in blown coverages and too many wide open receivers. First, not all teams have the kind of versatility that the Chiefs have in this regard, especially with a mobile quarterback. Second, this communication will improve for the Patriots, whether Dont’a Hightower plays every single game or not.

There are just two simple keys for the defense as we move on to the Saints — win on first down and don’t give up big plays. That’s how simple it is.

Putting the Patriots 2016 Defense in Historical Context

January 5, 2017 by Mike Dussault

One of the driving forces behind this blog was my realization in 2008 that Bill Belichick was going to have a chance to construct another whole defense from scratch. Few Coach/GMs have the kind of longevity to attempt this kind of thing, and as old stalwarts like Tedy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison and Mike Vrabel faded from New England, it was up to Belichick to build another defense that could help win Tom Brady another Super Bowl or three in the second half of his career.

2007 was the Dynasty Defense’s last hurrah. In 2008, they were old and slow and by the 2009 offseason Belichick went into full “blow it up” mode. Richard Seymour was traded, Bruschi and Harrison retired, Vrabel was shipped to Kansas City. Surprisingly the 2009 defense was actually still pretty good statistically — 12th on third down, 6th in PPG, 14th overall in DVOA. But with Ray Rice‘s first-play 83-yard touchdown run in the 2009 AFCWC which kickstarted a thorough Raven domination, it was clear the Pats still had a ways to go.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_-Ti84l4Ek

How Bend-Don’t-Break-y is this Patriots Defense?

November 23, 2016 by Mike Dussault

One thing I’ve learned over the years of studying Bill Belichick’s defense is that as long as they don’t give up big plays, tackle well and get red zone stops, he’s satisfied.

It’s never an aggressive, send-the-house blitzing style. It’s controlled and fundamentally solid. And usually it works. But that doesn’t mean it’s not frustrating to watch.

We call it the “Bend-Don’t-Break” and it’s become the annoying mantra of a Patriots defense that often struggles to get off the field with consistency. By tracking yards-per-drive and plays-per-drive we get a sense of how much they bend. By tracking points-per-drive and turnovers-per-drive (along with red zone and third down), we get a sense of how much they break.

So how does 2016 stack up with the previous B-D-B defenses? Let’s take a look at the long-term stats.

Patriots vs. Steelers Film Review: Defense Edition

October 26, 2016 by Mike Dussault

Diving in on the All-22 film of the Patriots’ defensive performance left me dazed and confused. I told myself after the game that a win is a win and really at this point there’s still time to work the kinks out, but the truth is that the defense is simply not winning one-on-one matchups up front enough.

Yes, it was a conservative gameplan, with the Pats rushing just three players on 22 of Landry Jones‘ 46 dropbacks. On those downs the Patriots were highly effective flooding the field with eight zone defenders. Jones had the most trouble on those snaps.

But when the Pats sent five or six rushers it barely ever affected Jones’ timing with his receivers and three of his eight completions of 10 yards or more came against the Pats five and six man rush.

So in today’s film review I’m going to look at one third down play in depth that best sum up the Patriots’ defensive problems.

A Historical Look Back at Patriots’ Points Allowed, Third Down and Red Zone Defense

October 23, 2016 by Mike Dussault

Maybe this is a little too deep for a pregame read, but I dove into the long-term defensive stats of the Patriots under Bill Belichick and found the results really interesting.

screen-shot-2016-10-21-at-2-07-02-pm Belichick has said in the past that the key stats for a defense are points, third down and red zone, with points being the most important. Entering today’s game, the Patriots are 2nd in points, 29th on third down and 27th in the red zone. The disparity is fascinating, and those stats are fueling the latest debates about how good the Patriots defense is or isn’t.

But when you look back since 2001, the picture that these stats paint isn’t much different than what we have today. In that time the Patriots have averaged 20th in third down defense, 17th in red zone defense, and 8th in points. As you can see from the charts, the third down defense is all over the map, while the points have been a model of consistency.

screen-shot-2016-10-21-at-2-03-49-pm The media (and yours truly included) have been hammering the third down defense in recent weeks, but maybe it matters just a little bit less than we all think it does. The Super Bowl-winning Patriots teams weren’t always lock down on third down – 2001 (15th), 2003 (7th), 2004 (21st) and 2014 (16th).

When you compare those rankings to points allowed — 2001 (6th), 2003 (1st), 2004 (2nd), and 2014 (8th) — the latter seems far more important, even though the Patriots have only dropped out of the top-10 in points allowed in three seasons under Belichick (2002, 2005, 2011).

Obviously you always want to get off the field on third down and to prevent touchdowns in the red zone, but maybe we (I) should stop obsessing over those two stats like they’re the end-all, be-all of statistics.

screen-shot-2016-10-21-at-2-43-50-pm

A Closer Look at Patriots’ Advanced Defensive Stats

October 5, 2016 by Mike Dussault

rob ninkovich Stats are for losers, right? Far be it from me to disagree with BB, but stats can give us a bigger picture. I always wait until four gams into the season before I jump into the stats. Anything before that is just simply too small a sample size.

As most of you know, the Patriots defense has been my long term pet project here on the blog. When you line up the 2016 stats and compare them to recent years it becomes even more clear that while the Patriots defense is good at preventing points, they’ve been pretty terrible at everything else.

I know there are plenty out there banging the “points allowed are all that matter,” but I disagree. Football is a complimentary game. Points allowed is certainly an important stat and the one at the bottom line, but the rest of the stats paint the picture of a defense that isn’t forcing turnovers, isn’t getting off the field and allowing far too long opponent possessions. That isn’t holding up their end of the bargain with the offense and special teams.

That said, it’s four games in. With Tom Brady back we can expect far more out of the offense going forward. That should help the defense. But still, every time in the first four games the Patriots have needed the defense to step up, they have failed to do so.

Let’s hope that changes in the coming weeks.