One thing I’ve learned over the years of studying Bill Belichick’s defense is that as long as they don’t give up big plays, tackle well and get red zone stops, he’s satisfied.
It’s never an aggressive, send-the-house blitzing style. It’s controlled and fundamentally solid. And usually it works. But that doesn’t mean it’s not frustrating to watch.
We call it the “Bend-Don’t-Break” and it’s become the annoying mantra of a Patriots defense that often struggles to get off the field with consistency. By tracking yards-per-drive and plays-per-drive we get a sense of how much they bend. By tracking points-per-drive and turnovers-per-drive (along with red zone and third down), we get a sense of how much they break.
So how does 2016 stack up with the previous B-D-B defenses? Let’s take a look at the long-term stats.
The first thing that jumps off the page is that this is lowest level of turnovers the Patriots defense has forced under Bill Belichick. The saving grace of the 2010-2012 defenses was that they grabbed more turnovers than anyone else. But since 2013, when they moved to a more man-coverage-centric scheme, the turnovers have been drying up. Turnovers are hard to purposely manufacture. They depend on sloppy play by the opponent as much as they require aggressive attacking the ball on every down.
Even in games this season with more zone coverage layered in, the Pats still haven’t been able get any. Even with the 49ers fumbling the ball five times, the Patriots still recovered none.
The second interesting piece is that despite being 18th in yards-per-drive, the amount of yards-per-drive they’re allowing (32.93) is their third-worst all time behind 2011 (37.49) and 2010 (33.79).
Similarly, their plays-per-drive (6.26) though 25th in the league, is their worst in fifteen years.
So your eyes are not deceiving you, this is the “bendiest” season since the awful 2010/2011 years, when the lack of talent on the defense was startling. Now, with all the vets and high-round picks (that haven’t been shipped out of town) it’s hard to fathom how they are struggling to get off the field.
Now we get to the “break” part. Yes, 8th in the league in points-per-drive is good and right in line with how they’ve been doing the last four seasons. That’s certainly saved them, however they’re just 19th in red zone defense, another critical number for the B-D-B, along with third down defense where they’re 21st.
This is a very “bendy” defense that isn’t saving itself with turnovers. They’re still managing to keep teams out of the end zone fairly well, but the silver linings for these statistics are hard to find outside of the points they’re allowing. Once offenses get rolling on long drives, the Patriots defense has a tough time getting a stop.
One other interesting stat is that they’re 14th in Three-and-Outs-per-drive. So yes, the Pats defense either quickly gets off the field or they give up a long drive, usually for a touchdown.
There’s two ways it can go. They start getting turnovers and tighten up on third downs, or they’ll be exposed by an offense that plays clean and finishes in the red zone.
Even I’m not sure which way it will go.
