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AFC Championship Game is a case study of how NFL defenses are evolving | The MMQB with Peter King
Wow, I am both relieved and proud to have written a complimentary article to Andy Benoit, a football writer I have long respected, that makes a lot of the same points about the Pats and man coverage that I made in my piece. It’s times like this I almost feel like I know what I’m talking about when it comes to x’s and o’s.
The Broncos are much more susceptible to the pass (ranked 21st by Football Outsiders), and now are playing without their best pass rusher, Von Miller, and a valuable cornerback in Chris Harris. When Harris was injured against the Chargers, quarterback Philip Rivers got hot and brought San Diego back in the game. Quentin Jammer struggled as a replacement. Jammer, rookie Kayvon Webster or Tony Carter are all options that Brady could look to target. And in each of their past three victories, the Patriots got out to big halftime leads, which are more conducive to running: 17-0 (Baltimore), 16-3 (Buffalo) and 21-7 (Indianapolis). The Patriots also played the Bills and Colts in the rain, when it’s harder to throw the ball, making the run seemed like a logical option. The forecast for Sunday in Denver: around 50 degrees and little wind, which could make both teams eager to throw the ball.
New England Patriots riding ground game led by LeGarrette Blount | The MMQB with Peter King
Everyone’s in love with the running game now, and for good reason, but the Broncos defense certainly cries out to be passed on. I think the Pats will be balanced and if they can get a lead, then they can hammer it home with the running game. Big key will be if Aaron Dobson can play to help draw some coverage on the outside.
https://www.patspropaganda.com/the-broncos-are-much-more-susceptible-to-the-pass/
The Jets (’10), Giants (’11) and Ravens (’12) played their base defense a total of 14 of 195 total snaps (7.2 percent) when they held the Patriots to 21 (garbage-time touchdown included), 17 and 13 points, respectively. The rest was nickel or dime defense with extra defensive backs. Basically, the defenses dared the Patriots to forego their passing attack and run the ball. The Patriots attempted to run the ball, but couldn’t do it effectively enough to pull the defenses out of playing coverage.
https://www.patspropaganda.com/the-jets-10-giants-11-and-ravens-12/
There are ways to beat man defense. And when you play something all the time, opponents tend to beat it.
Likely why we saw more zone from the Pats defense toward the end of the season.
https://www.patspropaganda.com/there-are-ways-to-beat-man-defense-and-when-you/
Defensive groupings: Arrington’s value – New England Patriots Blog – ESPN Boston
Great stats from Doug Kyed. Nice improvement this year, and really shows how well Devin McCourty has done on the back end.
Check out how the Patriots stack up this season on deep passes compared to the past two years below.
2013: 26-84, 30.9%, 9.25 YPA, 777 yards, 5 TDs, 6 INTs, 4 pass interference penalties
2012: 35-88, 39.8%, 12.1 YPA, 1,067 yards, 12 TDs, 9 INTs, 4 pass interference penalties
2011: 39-78, 50%, 15.7 YPA, 1,226 yards, 6 TDs, 3 INTs, 5 pass interference penalties
Really good stuff from Doug Kyed…
New England is 30th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate, 31st in Pro Football Focus’ pass rush ratings and 22nd in MMQB.com’s pressure rate. They also don’t pass the eye test. Outside of the bookend pass rushers, Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones, no one else on the team is getting through the offensive line to disrupt the opposing passer at a consistent rate.
A little bit of a surprise, especially just a week before camp starts, but I love it. Been saying all along I’d rather they just go for it with the group of rookies that they have. This also could mean that some of those rooks who were banged up might be ready to go, like […]