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PatsProp Preview – Regular Season Finale In Buffalo

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Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

A brighter end to the week than how it began following one of the scariest moments in NFL history on Monday night. Thankfully, as this preview goes out, Damar Hamlin is awake and recovering well in a Cincinnati hospital following his cardiac arrest during the game.

With the best news possible on Hamlin’s condition now known, the Patriots 8-8 Patriots and the 12-3 Bills face off in Buffalo NY with the Pats needing a win to extend their season into the playoffs. Here’s your week 18 preview!

Injury Update

Patriots To Watch

Rhamondre Stevenson

The Pats will need their best players in the groove if they’re going to make it to the playoffs, which means Stevenson will need to put in a big shift in Buffalo. The Bills are ranked fourth in the NFL on average rush yards allowed per game with 104.4, meaning it won’t be an easy task to get the ground game moving.

Even with a couple of embarrassing moments late on in the season, Stevenson still has been the best player on offense, and here’s hoping he can finish big on Sunday.

Matt Judon

Judon has kept his quality of play up down the stretch this season, and he’s vital to the playoff hopes in this one. Allen for sure can be forced into mistakes, Judon should be the one forcing them.

He remains on 15.5 sacks, just 3 shy of the current Patriots season sack record of 18.5, held by HOF’er Andre Tippet. Judon will be wanting to get close to, or equal that number on Sunday, hopefully aiding a must-win for the team.

Mac Jones

Mac has been a lot more secure with the ball in the second half of this season as turnovers have come way down, but a negative downside is that the amount of touchdowns he’s thrown is shamefully low. The offensive has to have productive drives against Buffalo, otherwise, it’ll be over before halftime. Let’s go Mac!

Marcus Jones

Marcus Jones was a noticeable absence last week against Miami, weirdly on all three sides of the ball. The rookie has emerged as a swiss army knife this season and I’m excited to see what he can bring to the team on Sunday. Remember, it was against the Bills back in Week 13 that Jones scored his first career offensive touchdown. #25 is a must-watch.

Devin McCourty & Matthew Slater

This is likely the final game for these two future Patriot Hall Of Famers, not saying they’ll have a massive bearing on the game, but enjoy one final time seeing two Patriots legends.

Nick Folk

If the Pats come out of Buffalo with a win, it will have come down to the very fine margins, meaning that Nick Folk will have played a role in the victory. Folk has missed a bunch of kicks in recent weeks, he needs to be 100% on Sunday regardless of if it’s for 1 or 3 points.

Bills Blizzard

Josh Allen

Allen has shown his human side a few times this year, throwing quite a few picks when he’s not fully focused. With everything going on this week, we could see anything from Allen on Sunday, his best version, or, he could leave things open for the Patriots to earn a win. A must-watch.

Stefon Diggs

Unsurprisingly, like Allen, Diggs is a must-watch too, he’s having his second-best career season with 1325 receiving yards, and a joint career-high 10 touchdowns. The Pats have some secondary depth back with Marcus Jone returning, but, they’ll have their work cut out trying to stop the main Bills target who caught 9 passes for just shy of 100 yards and a touchdown back in Week 13 on TNF.

Ed Oliver

One of the reasons the Bills have been so good against the run this season is Ed Oliver, the former 9th overall pick in the 2019 draft has been a quality defensive line addition for them. With the Pats’ offensive front struggling to get consistency in either blocking game, the interior will need to be solid Sunday.

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Caption Contest for Tickets to the Patriots – Bills Monday Night Football clash!

I’ve got another pair of tickets to give away this week courtesy of @NRGEnergy and their #FanEnergy promotion. The rules are simple. Send me your best Rex/Tom captions, I’ll pick a few favorites and everyone can vote for theirs. 

Tweet and tag @patspropaganda​, @nrgenergy and #FanEnergy. Finalists announced tonight at 9pm EST, voting closes Wednesday 9pm EST.

Good luck to all!

https://www.patspropaganda.com/caption-contest-for-tickets-to-the-patriots/

3 GIFs That Defined Patriots Win Over Bills

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There were a lot of great plays to pick from this week, a nice problem I’m not used to having this season, so I just went ahead and picked five because I make the rules here on the Prop.

Players stepped up despite major injuries and made plays at the critical moments to get the Pats the victory. Despite the final score this was a closely-fought football game with the game on the line well into the fourth quarter. The Pats showed a ton of grit and their trademark cold-bloodedness that we’ve come to expect.

Here are the five plays that stood out the most to me…

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After going back-and-forth for much of the first half, each scoring touchdowns, this play really got the Pats kick started for the rest of the game. Chandler Jones continued his great season and showed remarkable athleticism to corral the ball. The Pats would get six points just before the half and set them up for the opening drive of the third quarter.

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What a play this long touchdown pass was to Brian Tyms for a bunch of reasons. First, it came on the opening drive of the third quarter, a spot the Pats often struggle on the road, and for all the talk that Tom Brady had no more deep accuracy, this one play showed there just might be some hope. This play should serve as a message to any teams who want to load the box and short zones.

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The Bills had just put together a touchdown-scoring drive and closed to within six points but the Pats came right back out firing with this play immediately moving them across midfield. Not only is this just one of many examples that I could’ve chosen to illustrate that Gronk is back, but it also shows the kind of steely resolve the Pats had as the Bills continued to stick around.

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With a nine-point lead this was the play that effectively put the game away, and the fact that it came on third-and-12 and Brady found Brandon LaFell is just the icing on the cake. This game also proves that the Patriots are a lot more than just the Edelman and Gronk show. The offense didn’t show this kind of development last year until much later. LaFell is developing into the big receiving threat the Pats have lacked for what seems like an eternity.

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Still the Bills kept fighting but this was the final dagger, converting a third-and-long and not giving them the ball back with plenty of time and just an eight-point lead. Brady stands strong in a tight pocket and delivers a strike to Gronk.

If the Pats can maintain this kind of execution, they will be very hard to stop. 

Previous Three GIFs:

Cincinnati Bengals

Kansas City Chiefs

Oakland Raiders

@ Minnesota Vikings

@ Miami Dolphins

Pats Posits: Gritty but Costly Victory

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After letting this win over the Bills marinate for the last 20 hours or so I went back to take a look at the condensed game film as I usually do on Mondays. A lot to be excited about, unfortunately it’s hard to be too happy when it looks like Jerod Mayo and Stevan Ridley are likely done for the season.

There’s no way to find a silver lining in either of these injuries. The Pats never replaced LeGarrette Blount, Brandon Spikes or Dane Fletcher this offseason and now those decisions are going to seriously test the Pats’ depth once again.

For Ridley, the obvious personnel adjustment is using Brandon Bolden as the early-down back, but he certainly doesn’t have the ability to break tackles or power through in short yardage situations. He’ll get what is there and likely not a yard more. Maybe Jonas Grey from the practice squad is the answer, or free agent Benjarvus Green-Ellis (I’d be all for giving him a look). But if we’re riding with Bolden as the guy, I’m a little worried.

Mayo was the quarterback of the defense but luckily Hightower got good experience last year and once healthy, he should be able to fill the communication void. The problem is that Jamie Collins is not stout against the run in the base defense and now he must find a way to fix that. Deontae Skinner looked like a rookie despite picking up a sack against the Bills. 

What other options do they have? Promote Darius Fleming from the practice squad, but he still doesn’t give you the kind of coverage Mayo had (obviously). Fleming is more an end of line player. So now Hightower might be headed to Mike and really, he should be named a replacement captain.

With Hightower and Collins in sub-packages the problems are manageable, though the Pats were shredded by Scott Chandler once again and it leaves me wondering how they will deal with Julius Thomas. 

They made it work without Mayo last year but they’re an additional experienced cover linebacker short this year. It’s definitely a big question mark how they fill the void this year.

Alright, with the injuries out of the way let’s talk the rest of the team, because this was a performance that showed the 2014 Patriots have the kind of perseverance the 2013 had in spades.

I really believed the Pats would come out of the locker room and lay an egg. We’ve seen it too many times in recent years on the road, especially when getting hit with adversity. I wasn’t sure if this team, with all the injuries adding up, had enough gas in the tank, but the offense was almost unstoppable in the second half.

Credit that to some major developments – the protection was good, Gronk is back and LaFell is developing into a real threat. All good signs that this offense could be ready to take a major step forward. Not to mention the Moss-like deep ball catch by Tyms.

Overall, it feels like this is still the Belichick/Brady Patriots, who fight to the end. It’s the first time this year I’ve felt safe saying that.

If Connolly and Stork are back for Thursday night, it’s hard not to feel really good about the direction of this offense. But they’ll need Gronk to stay healthy, he’s the straw stirring the drink.

He might take some penalties but Alfonzo Dennard is really a key piece of this secondary. He and Arrington are excellent companions to Revis, with McCourty cleaning up the back end. Still very curious how Browner fits in, but I think we’ll be seeing plenty of Dennard even when he’s ready to go.

Not a lot to love about the ground game, but they stuck with it and that kept the linebackers and pass rush somewhat honest. I worry about someone like Bolden being able to create something out of nothing if the OL blocking isn’t better. Though with Connolly/Stork back it should be.

Tyms essentially played the old Matthew Slater WR role of limited snaps where he just runs down the field really fast. Clearly Tyms has a special skillset catching the deep ball. It was just so refreshing to see Brady complete that long pass (among others). Really feels like it’s been since 2010 to Moss that we saw those kind of completions.

Thank Hoodie for Chandler and Nink. We can make it work without Mayo, not sure we could make it work without one of them. Though the sprinkling of Zach Moore in the game is a positive sign. Curious to see if he gets more time.

Wilfork and Chung – two veterans who might get lost in the shuffle of praise this week, but both have been big factors this year. Chris Jones had another solid game while Casey Walker also did well subbing in.

Tavon Wilson and Duron Harmon could be more involved with Mayo out, but I don’t have much confidence in either yet.

Pats just have to tough out this Thursday night against the Jets, who are sure to present plenty of problems, especially for the offensive line. If you think they’re just going to roll over I’ve got bad news for you.

A win on Thursday would be so huge and then give the Pats some badly needed time to get healthy. Get ready, another football game in just three days…

3 GIFs coming later this afternoon.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 6 at Buffalo Bills

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The New England Patriots got back on track last week with an impressive win over the previously undefeated Cincinnati Bengals. But there’s little time to enjoy that victory, as the Buffalo Bills welcome the Pats for their second divisional game this season.

Despite New England’s 22-2 record against the Bills since 2001, the early season games, especially those in Buffalo are always close. With first place in the AFC East on the line, the Patriots will need to build on the success they had against the Bengals.

The 3-2 Bills will be looking to make a statement and the Patriots know what they’re walking into –  a hungry team that wants to prove they’re a true contender.

Here’s the gameplan.

Offensive Gameplan

Continuity is the name of the game this week, building on the solid play of last weekend without regressing is a daunting task in a tough environment like Buffalo. Bill Belichick calls it “stacking success” and that’s something the 2014 Patriots haven’t been able to do yet.

It starts with the offensive line, which may have some questions with Bryan Stork showing up on the injury report on Thursday with a “head injury”. If Stork can go, there’s no reason to change up what worked last week on the line, and really, they don’t have many other options.

The offense cannot continue to progress if Brady doesn’t have the time he needs.

Incorporating pieces like Aaron Dobson and Tim Wright are also important, as they add two completely new elements to the Patriots offense, elements they lacked last year – an athletic “F” tight end and a tall, speedy receiver on the outside.

Getting Danny Amendola more touches wouldn’t be a bad thing either. He had his best game as a Patriot last year in Buffalo, despite tearing his groin in the process. Amendola has been getting open, Brady just hasn’t been finding him.

Balance between the run and pass is critical as always. Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley had great patience last week and if they get that kind of blocking again, they should be able to expose the Bills run defense. But there will likely have to be some misdirection and screens involved to avoid Brandon Spikes in the middle of the Bills defense. He’s a downhill, impact linebacker if you run it right at him.

Defensive Gameplan

Injuries are adding up on the defensive side of the ball. Dominique Easley separated his shoulder last weekend and could be out. Chandler Jones is battling a shoulder injury of his own as well. With Michael Buchanan on IR now and Dont’a Hightower missing last weekend with a knee injury, the Pats are scary thin at defensive end right now (and Hightower isn’t even a defensive end!). Even their emergency options are being thinned out.

This is not good for the edges of the defense. The Pats could really use Hightower back to reinforce the edge from his strongside linebacker spot. The options for pass rushers have been thinned out as well. Vince Wilfork and Rob Ninkovich might have to play out of their minds.

Devin McCourty was in a red “no contact” jersey in practice. If he’s out this week Duron Harmon steps into the primary free safety role, something that could be a bit a scary.

But Buffalo should rely on their quick passing game primarily around Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, so it will likely come down to linebackers Jerod Mayo and Jamie Collins making plays.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Wrap and Tackle: In the two road losses this year a recurring theme was poor tackling and that cannot happen with talented running backs Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. Winning on the road, to borrow a phrase from the late great Maine hockey coach Shaun Walsh, is about being “quietly efficient”.  Make the plays you’re in position to make. Don’t do too much. Just DO YOU JOB. If they do that, the Pats defense should be in good position with their talented secondary. But it must start with sound play up front.

2. Two Tight Ends, One Personnel Package: We saw just a glimpse of what last year’s leading receiver for rookie tight ends Tim Wright could do and this week he needs to be worked in even more. As Rob Gronkowski returns to his old self, Wright is the perfect compliment to him –  a move tight end who can stretch the seam but also go up on jump balls. The two tight end set is the most versatile in football and allows the offense to dictate the matchups they want. The sooner the Pats can run Wright and Gronk with a combination of any other weapons, the harder they will be to stop.

3. Make Spikes Cover: Brandon Spikes has certainly had this game circled since the schedule was released and he’ll make his presence felt in the run game. But Spikes’ weaknesses in pass coverage are well-documented and the Pats have a knack for turning a player’s overaggressiveness against them. That should be the case with Spikes as the Pats have plenty of options to exploit him in space. Whether it’s Shane Vereen, Rob Gronkowski or Tim Wright, the Pats will look to get Spikes in space and take him out of his specialty. Play action should come early and often.

4. Block Four With Five: There’s little surprise that maintaining the kind of offensive line play that we saw against the Bengals is of paramount importance. This week, with a Bills team more than capable of generating pressure with just four talented rushers, the Patriots must find a way to give Brady the extra time to find open receivers with seven defenders in coverage. Kyle Williams should test the interior of the Pats line while Jerry Hughes and Mario Williams will be attacking the edges. Stopping those three players especially might just be the biggest key to the entire game.

5. Win: The Pats are already in a 0-1 hole in the AFC East and dropping to 0-2 would put real pressure on them. Divisional games are of paramount importance in Foxboro – they’re the most direct route to the playoffs of course, so Bill Belichick and co. know what is at stake. Stepping into sole possession of first place in the AFC East would be a nice statement to make in early October, but the road only gets harder from here. 

5 Keys for Patriots vs. Bills

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It would be hard deny I’m a little worried about this game in Buffalo. Yes, the stats look nice for the Pats vs. the Bills over the past decade, Tom Brady has only ever lost twice to them. But those who have watched the games know how close most of those have been, and it’s a pretty sure bet we’re in for another close one this weekend.

Now the Pats come into Buffalo at 1-2, with the closest thing resembling an early season “must win” in the last decade. And make no mistake the Bills are a team that have been constructed in recent years with taking down the Patriots in mind, and they’ve done it in a way that a Patriots uber blogger like myself can appreciate. If I was building a team to take down my beloved team, I’d do it the way the Bills are, though I’d surely still wish I had a couple more weapons on offense and maybe a slightly more consistent quarterback.

They can rush the passer with four, are not afraid to play press man coverage and they have a quick passing game that can eat the soft zone “bend don’t break” defense up. All of these things have given the Patriots fits over recent years.

So this should be an excellent game, and one that requires the Patriots turn in their most complete team effort of the 2012 season. Here are my weekly five keys as to what they’ll need to do to pull out the win and get back to .500.

1. Defensive Disguise: The thing that stands out most with Ryan Fitzpatrick is just how quickly he gets the ball out. He rarely holds it longer than 3 seconds and as a result he is barely ever sacked. He can however be fooled into making some bad throws, especially with such an accelerated decision process, so the Patriots must try to force those throws to the wrong places by disguising what they’re doing. From a personnel standpoint the Patriots have been fairly straightforward on defense, but this week we could finally see some switches, or at the very least, some guys in spots we haven’t seen before, especially from the usual edge rushers. Don’t be surprised to see Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich standing up and walking around. We saw the premiere of the “five and dime” defense against Buffalo a few years back and could see something similar this time around.

2. Interior Chaos: Another way to force Fitzpatrick into his interception-throwing ways is make sure his sight lines are not clear. This is done with an interior rush that can push the pocket and run stunts to keep the throwing lanes murky at best. It’s not something the Patriots have excelled at since losing Mike Wright and Myron Pryor, and they might be hard-pressed to find the personnel to pull it off this week but they’ll have to try something. Part of me wonders if newly-signed Terrell McClain was brought in just for this purpose. Even so expect to see a good dose Jermaine Cunningham and perhaps Brandon Deaderick to try and cause some disruption inside. And if Vince Wilfork could turn in a game like he did in last year’s AFC Championship that would be extremely helpful.

3. Believe it or not, a lot of Ridley: The Bills will run nickel personnel on defense as their base and that will tempt the Patriots to run on them, as it should. The Bills were built to combat Tom Brady’s aerial assault but can the Pats finally break through with their power running game and have that lead the way like the passing game usually does? It would improve their chances in Buffalo by not playing into the strength of their defense. The problem is that the Pats have lacked a significant push from their offensive line in the running game, and Dareus, Williams, and Williams are no pushovers. Still, if the Bills think they have the answer to Tom Brady it might be time to change the question. Ridley has an explosive playmaking ability that the Pats have lacked on the ground in recent years. If he can get going it will take the Bills out of their comfort zone and the Pats could roll.

4. Neutralize Kyle Williams: Anyone who reads this blog knows how much I covet an interior rusher and Kyle Williams is arguably the best penetrator in the NFL. I believe Solder and Vollmer will be able to hold down the edges from the pass rushers but it’s the inside guys of Dan Connolly, Ryan Wendell, and (hopefully) Logan Mankins (who didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday) that concern me. The problem with an interior guy like Williams is he takes away Brady’s ability to step up, and we’ve seen numerous times when he can’t step up he’s not nearly as effective. If Mankins can’t go this becomes even dicier. Connolly has struggled, Wendell has been inconsistent, and Mankins is still getting back into form before sustaining a hip injury that has limited him. The success of the Patriots offense might very well rest in the hands of how well they deal with Kyle Williams, and to a slightly lesser extent Marcel Dareus.

5. Win: As always it’s the only thing that matters. This is arguably the toughest division game the Patriots will have this season (depending on where the Jets are at come Thanksgiving) and it comes at a critical time for the Patriots. The Bills know the Pats are on the early season ropes, and there’s no question what dropping New England to 1-3 could do for their confidence. The Patriots need to find their identity still on offense, defense and special teams. They’ve had their moments in all three phases but there is still an element of unknown across all of them. 1-3 is not an inescapable hole but things will certainly not get easier with Peyton Manning coming to town next weekend. The Patriots need to send a message to the AFC East and the rest of the NFL that they’re still a team that can win the close ones, especially against a tough divisional opponent on the road. This could really be the game that puts the 2012 Pats on the right track.

Jets and Dolphins offenses will attack Patriots much differently

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One of the things we’ve learned this preseason about the Dolphins and Jets is just how polar opposite their offensive philosophies will be. The Jets will feature a return to the ball-control ground and pound, including using Tim Tebow in a variety of Wildcat and short yardage situations, while the Dolphins are going with the no huddle and trying to play fast.

The question is which philosophy is the right one to take down the Patriots? Everyone knows that the division has gone through New England for the last decade so if you’re not specifically trying to take down the Pats you’re not really trying.

There’s no question that the Pats pass defense has been a weak link over the past few seasons. Though the Dolphins don’t feature an elite quarterback at the moment, and have a collection of, in the words of Jeff Ireland, “a lot of 3, 4, and 5 receivers” but no clear 1’s or 2’s, there have been quite a few no-name offenses including back up quarterbacks who have thrown all over the Pats D, just look no further than Dan Orlovsky and the Colts last season.

But there’s also no secret that the Pats have gotten away from their run stuffing 3-4 base defense personnel. They will still use the 3-4 as they did on the fly against Tebow the first time they saw him in 2011, but there’s a clear lack of run stoppers like Richard Seymour and Ty Warren on the roster now. Could the Pats transition to more of a nickel-front base expose them to teams who want to run it down their throat?

In my view both teams have flawed lines of thinking. Even though the Dolphins lack talent, let’s say they’re able to execute the no-huddle and put up yardage. Even then I have doubts they’ll be able to keep up with Brady and the Pats many talented weapons. It’s like asking for a shootout with the most heavily armed guy on the block. Or bringing a hand gun to a machine gun fight.

As for the Jets it appears that for them to beat the Patriots things will need to go exactly according to their game plan. They can’t get behind. They can’t turn the ball over. And they’ll have to dominate at the line of scrimmage and put up five-yard carries at will. Are Shaun Green and Bilal Powell the kind of backs who are ready to carry the load like that? I’m not sure.

Tebow can be a valuable threat inside the 10-yard line, and provide some Wildcat runs of his own, but again those things are predicated on A) Mark Sanchez getting them inside the 10-yard line, and B) the Pats forgetting how they shut down Tebow for 7 of 8 quarters in 2011.

And we didn’t even mention the Jets lack of depth at wide receiver. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again that I love Rex Ryan as the coach of the Jets and I hope he remains there for a long time because I enjoy what he brings to the rivalry. But from a personnel stand point it’s hard not to think that since Rex took over there’s been a steady decline in talent for the Jets. They’ll need to see a good chunk of their young guys emerge this year or time could be running out on the Tannenbaum-Ryan regime.

If anyone is on the right track offensively to face the Patriots I have to go with the Bills. While they aren’t exactly loaded at wide receiver or tight end their quick passing game and the presence of Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller give them a number of ways to not only move the ball but also control the clock.

As someone who has studied the Patriots defense closely I know the quick-passing game is the thing that can kill them, since they’re fond of the bend-don’t-break style. Of course then it comes down to a matter of consistent extended execution, which is the biggest hurdle, but Ryan Fitzpatrick could be just the quarterback to pull it off.

The Patriots defense should be better this year. Well, let’s put it this way, it will be hard for them to give up much more yardage than they did last year. The other teams in the AFC East will need bold game plans, fearless play-calling, and flawless execution for not one, but both games against the mighty Pats if they want a shot at the division, regardless of what their offensive strategy will be.