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Patriots, Colts and Blitz Rate

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Some really interesting numbers from ESPNBoston.com yesterday and I think they’re worth sharing here.

In the Nov. 16 meeting between the teams, Tom Brady faced the blitz on a season-high 53.5 percent of his dropbacks. He was 11-of-16 against the blitz, converting 11 first downs while averaging 11.0 yards per attempt. Brady had the best Total QBR this season (including playoffs) when facing a blitz – 87.6. Protection and receivers getting open quickly has been a big part of that, as he was sacked on only 1.8 percent of his dropbacks when facing a blitz. 

In contrast to the Colts, the Patriots have only blitzed on 20.8 percent of opponent dropbacks this season, which is the second lowest rate in the NFL. The team’s blitz rate has dropped nearly every year over a six-season snapshot (including playoffs).

  • 2014: 20.8
  • 2013: 23.9
  • 2012: 24.7
  • 2011: 24.7
  • 2010: 26.8
  • 2009: 39.4

Blitz rate is such a fascinating stat. Some might think you need to blitz more to get more pressure, but more often a high blitz rate signifies problems in your defense, whether they’re in coverage or getting to the QB with only your front four.

So I don’t find it surprising that as the Patriots defense has been rebuilt from 2009, really Year Zero after the turnover from the Dynasty Defense, the blitz rate has dropped.

Now the Patriots have been able to get better, but not really great, pressure from guys like Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. Of course, it can always be better, but in a perfect world you’d never have to blitz at all. 

Now the Pats pick their spots with well-timed slot corner blitzes or with their versatile linebackers Collins and Hightower.

As for the Colts this weekend, I’d expect we won’t see quite as much blitzing against Brady. Rex Ryan’s game plan, that has been consistently effective except for a couple times, has been more about deception and coverage than blitzing.

He’ll overload one side, then bring a blitz from the other. Or show pressure and drop all but two guys into coverage. If the Colts are smart they’ll go that route, because no one is better than picking apart a blitz than Brady, as they should’ve learned in Week 11.

we normally don’t see the patriots blitz often if at all in games. with at least 3 corners that can play man should we expect a little more blitzing(not every play but more then we normally are accustomed to) this year

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It’s an interesting question that will be something to really monitor this season because BB has never had the quality of corners on paper that he has right now.

One thing about defense though is that you never want to have to blitz. You want to get pressure with four. Of course that’s easier said that done. And really, the mainstream definition of a blitz is sending more than four guys, but some would tell you a real blitz is only when defensive backs are getting sent, which we saw occasionally with Arrington and Ryan last season.

Belichick is and will likely always be a fairly conservative defensive coach and it’s hard to argue with the results. But now that his theoretically has multiple corners who can man-up receivers and take them out of the equation, does he start sending more blitzes? Certainly seems like there’s a good chance.

But if I was a betting man I’d bet his blitz rate remains nearly unchanged.

Here’s the percentages of blitzes from last season. While some of it is dependent on how the games unfolded, the Pats are unlikely to ever blitz more than 30% of the snaps.

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Team Blitzing | ProFootballFocus.com

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Team Blitzing | ProFootballFocus.com

This is a critical article if you want more insight into the Patriots pass rush. The Pats are ranked 25th overall in blitz percentage, obviously meaning that they really don’t blitz very much at all compared to the rest of the NFL.

When the Pats do blitz, they were fairly effective, ranking 13th in the NFL for pass rush productivity when sending more than four guys. But again, it didn’t happen very often.

Finally comes the real measure, and that is measuring the ability to get pressure with just their front four. In this the Pats were ranked 23rd.

I think in Bill Belichick’s world this is the most telling stat. When the Pats had a dominant defense this ranking would’ve been much higher because they had the ability to get pressure with just four guys, which would be their front three in the 3-4 and whichever LB they felt like sending on that play.

If you’re a conservative defensive team and you don’t blitz a lot, getting pressure with just four is critical to your defense. It might be the single most important element. This is why, for all the excitement the signings of Revis and Browner bring, it’s all about the front seven as I see it if this defense is going to be truly elite.

Also, here’s MMQB’s last pressure points ranking which similarly has the Pats in the early-20s for pass rush. Just not good enough. If Wilfork/Kelly can re-enter the rotation they will definitely help, but how limited will they be. Hopefully Armstead helps too.

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Almost every significant play the Panthers had on offense was the result of Newton and the Panthers taking advantage of the Patriots’ aggressiveness. The 42-yard pass to Steve Smith in the first quarter? The Patriots rushed six defenders. The 9-yard touchdown pass to Brandon LaFell? Also on a blitz, with the throw landing in the spot that a blitzing Dane Fletcher vacated. Newton’s 24-yard run on third and 6 in the second quarter? Another six-man pass rush, with Newton running right past a blitzing Dont’a Hightower. The crucial defensive holding call on Devin McCourty on third and 7 on the Panthers’ final drive? You guessed it — another blitz.

Patriots’ blitz could not contain Cam Newton – Sports – The Boston Globe

Interesting. Especially when it’s such an easy criticism crutch to say the Pats D needs to be more aggressive.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/almost-every-significant-play-the-panthers-had-on/

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On 53 dropbacks, the Patriots blitzed just nine times. Roethlisberger was 3-of-8 with 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions and a sack on those plays. The touchdown came midway through the fourth quarter as receiver Jerricho Cotchery shook linebacker Brandon Spikes and made a beautiful one-handed grab on second-and-goal from the 6.

Picked-up pieces from 4th-quarter review – New England Patriots Blog – ESPN Boston

https://www.patspropaganda.com/on-53-dropbacks-the-patriots-blitzed-just-nine/

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We went through each game and tallied up the blitz totals — with a huge assist from ProFootballFocus.com — and found that yes, indeed, the Patriots aren’t blitzing a whole lot this year. They are blitzing on 22.2 percent of passing plays, ranked 26th in the NFL. The league average is 31.3 percent. But the Patriots are 13th in pass defense and third in points allowed, so the tactic is working well.

NFL trade deadline fast approaching – Sports – The Boston Globe

The Patriots are always a conservative defense, and if they’re blitzing a lot, it means they’re trying to cover up a weakness. In a perfect world you can get pressure with your front four and never have to blitz. Sorry to those looking for an “attacking” defense that is sending defensive backs all the time.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/we-went-through-each-game-and-tallied-up-the-blitz/