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Notes on a Patriots defensive scheme shift

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I know everyone has been going crazy about the possibility of the Pats going to a 4-3 defense this season, of course I’m right there with you. But I’ve found a lot of misinformed articles over the past few days and there are some points that I’d like to hammer home.

  • First, the defense was and will always be a multiple front defense. Let’s not make a bigger deal out of this than we need to, as much as I’d like to. It’s easy to get caught up in things like position names like DE and OLB, but they’re somewhat meaningless and don’t tell the real story about how versatile the Patriots defense remains.
  • The fact remains that while the Pats lack elite 3-4 defensive ends they still have a plethora (yes, plethora) of two-gap type 3-4 defensive tackles. Other than Myron Pryor and maybe Mike Wright I don’t see any traditional 4-3 defensive tackles which leads me to my next point…
  • I suspect that the Patriots version of the 4-3 will not be the straight up Colts/Giants version that is so common. I fully expect two-gap principals on the interior line (Wilfork/Haynesworth/Brace/Love) to remain.
  • If anything I believe it would almost be more of a 2-5-4 scheme that would have a 4-3 Over look.
  • The advantage of the 3-4 is that offenses don’t know where the pressure is going to come from. In a straight up 4-3 you know exactly where it’s coming from, the defensive ends. With how much BB values disguise I don’t see him suddenly moving to the most straight-forward defense that exists in football.
  • Just because Jermaine Cunningham and Eric Moore are seeing time at defensive end doesn’t mean they’ll be expected to suddenly be Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. We’ll still see both on their feet and dropping into coverage at times. That is the great advantage the Patriots would have running a 4-3. Their defensive ends are already comfortable dropping into coverage. This would allow you to throw zone blitz looks fairly easily, with the defensive ends dropping into coverage and a linebacker or defensive back blitzing.
  • Playing at weak outside linebacker would almost assuredly mean over 200 tackles for Jerod Mayo, including more sacks and perhaps interceptions as well. In the 4-3, the weak OLB usually has free reign, meaning Mayo would no longer have to defeat guards and could fully use his incredible speed to make plays all over the field.
  • The Patriots overall team speed and athleticism would be far greater with five linebacker-types on the field, meaning that in their base defense they might be a little more susceptible to the running game, but they’d also be a little more prepared for the passing game on early downs.
  • The number one question that remains is when the Patriots play a run heavy team like the Ravens what do they do? Can they stop the run consistently in this new formation if it is indeed their new base defense? Last year they played the 3-4 on 58 of 77 snaps versus Baltimore. The only really significant storyline is that if they’re no longer running the 3-4 against the offenses that rely on the run game first and foremost.
  • Here’s a diagram of a 4-3 Over defense which is probably the closest thing to what we think the Pats would probably run, and really it’s not that far from a 3-4.

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NT – Wilfork, 3-tech – Haynesworth, SAM – Guyton, Mike – Spikes, Wwill – Mayo, Buck – Cunningham, DE – Moore

Now it should be a little clearer why Mayo at WLB would have free range, he’s protected by Haynesworth and Moore.

You can also see how much freedom they’d have with two defensive ends who can drop into coverage.

This defense also could make Brandon Spikes a star. Not only would he have more protection from guards, he’d also only have to concern himself with the middle flat in pass coverage which of course was not his strength last year.

We won’t know for sure what the Patriots have brewing until September 12th but it’s certainly fun to speculate based on the camp reports. As they continue to court 4-3 personnel it seems more and more likely that this is a change in philosophy to some extent, but the principals of fielding a big, tough, smart football team will always remain.

Until we see the Patriots in a 4-3 defense against a heavy run team these changes remain “tweaks” in my mind, as opposed to anything that radical. It’s simply trying to get the best players on the field, playing to their strengths, while trying to fix the problems with the pass defense that we’ve seen for the past few seasons.

The Adventure of Nink: Rob Ninkovich a building block for the Patriots

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When the Patriots signed an unknown long snapper/reserve 4-3 defensive end who had spent time with the Dolphins and Saints named Rob Ninkovich a week into 2009’s training camp no one thought much of it. The Patriots are always signing guys like this, and usually they don’t last very long.

Some were probably surprised when Ninkovich made the 2009 squad, I know I was, and it appeared early on that he was little more than just a special teamer, ala Larry Izzo. Nothing against Izzo, teams need guys like that, but there was no indication that the undersized Ninkovich was ever going to make an impact in the base defense.

He played on all special teams right out of the gate, and began to see some spot duty at outside linebacker as Adalius Thomas fell out of favor with the Patriots.

As is often the case with players that Bill Belichick likes, Ninkovich slowly began to see more and more time on the field in defensive situations as the 2009 season progressed, even earning a two year contract extension in early December.

In the last four games of the season he averaged 31% of the snaps as an outside linebacker.

Still, Patriots fans weren’t sure what to make of Ninkovich. Was he just a stop gap? A core special teams guy who was getting a shot in the base and sub defenses by default? Or was he a real building block as Belichick re-built his defense?

Clearly the contract extension and gradual increases in playing time and role indicated that the Patriots liked Ninkovich, but it was still unclear at the end of 2009 just what his ceiling might be. Most probably hoped he’d get beaten out by a rookie pass rusher in 2010 and his career with the Patriots would be over.

In 2010 Ninkovich continued to build on his 2009 season, seeing significant snaps throughout the season in an outside linebacker rotation with Jermaine Cunningham, Tully Banta-Cain, and later in the season Eric Moore. Yet despite a 4 sack, 2 interception, and 62 tackle season many Patriots fans remains skeptical that Ninkovich is anything more than a seat filler until the team could draft or sign a big name OLB.

However I believe that he’s a far bigger piece of the puzzle than most.

First, let’s begin with the below chart as an overview of Ninkovich’s playing time over the past two season. As you can see he has steadily improved and gotten more and more time as his Patriots career has progressed.

Patriots Rob Ninkovich

Now it’s clear that Ninkovich has strengths and weaknesses, as evidenced by the continued spikes in playing time over 2010. When you analyze which games he played more and less in, it’s apparent that the Patriots view his biggest strength as a 3-4 base defense run stopper.

If you compare his playing time spikes to Brandon Spikes’ you’ll notice a correlation. Both played their highest snap totals against the ground and pounders. The top three games Ninkovich played the highest percentage of the snaps (not counting the season ender vs. Miami) were:

  1. Ravens (75.3%)
  2. Browns (62.9%)
  3. Jets game one (60.8%)

The games he played least? Pass happy San Diego and Indianapolis.

Taking another look at the Ravens game and the Jets playoff game showed me a lot on Ninkovich. In the playoff game especially Ninkovich came to play, setting the edge with authority and demonstrating a relentless pass rush that forced pressure on Mark Sanchez a few times.

He had 2 passes defended and four tackles in that game, and it’s worth mentioning that the Pats D fell apart in the fourth quarter after Ninkovich had been lost with a knee injury. Not to say that was the reason why, but he brought an “A” effort against the Jets, and losing him with an already depleted OLB crew certainly hurt.

Some will remain unconvinced, despite 2010 being the first season that Ninkovich played consistently in a defense for an NFL team. They’ll look at his mere four sacks and conclude that he’s not the answer for the pass rush problems, especially since two of them came in the meaningless game seventeen.

Well let’s take a look at Mike Vrabel’s sack numbers over his career with the Pats: 3, 4.5, 9.5, 5.5, 4.5, 4.5, 12.5, 4. Doesn’t seem like Ninkovich is that far off does it? Vrabel took a similar path to the Patriots, and it wasn’t until his third season under BB’s tutelage that he really blossomed.

One thing that is continually marginalized is the effect of a player getting experience in the Belichick 3-4 defense. In a read and react defense the more experience you have, the quicker and better your reads are, and the more decisive your reactions will be.

With two full years in the system, and one playing extensively, I don’t think it’s a stretch to expect Ninkovich to become an even bigger impact outside linebacker for the Patriots.

When I watch him play against the physical Ravens and Jets teams I see a player who is tough and ready to take on blockers. It’s not always perfect with him for sure, he lost contain more than a couple times this past season, but his playing time would not continue to rise if Belichick did not see something in him.

I believe Ninkovich has demonstrated enough in all aspects of the game that he is definitely a player who will be a solid piece of an outside linebacker rotation for the Patriots, and not just an out-of-place special teamer who should be nothing more than a back up.

Patriots Rob Ninkovich

For a look at Ninkovich’s football journey, check out this piece from Mike Reiss.

Let’s talk about sacks… Patriots style follow-up edition

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Before the 2010 season I wrote this article for Pats Pulpit where I surmised that the Patriots really didn’t necessarily need one OLB pass rusher to solve their pass rush problems. What they needed was more pressure from the entire defensive front seven. So not just the high end sack artist type, but the three to four sacks from a multitude of players.

Here was the breakdown of total sacks and sack leaders from the past decade:

  • 2001 – 41 (Super Bowl Champs) Hamilton – 7
  • 2002 – 34 (missed playoffs due to tie breaker) Seymour/McGinest – 5.5
  • 2003 – 41 (Super Bowl Champs) Vrabel – 9.5
  • 2004 – 45 (Super Bowl Champs) McGinest – 9.5
  • 2005 – 33  (Lost AFCDG) Colvin – 7.5
  • 2006 – 44 (Lost AFCCG) Warren – 7.5
  • 2007 – 47 (Lost Super Bowl) Vrabel – 12.5
  • 2008 – 31 (Missed playoffs due to tie breaker) Seymour – 8
  • 2009 – 31 (Lost AFCWCG) Banta-Cain – 10

And now we can add:

  • 2010 – 36 (Lost AFCDG) Wright 5.5

It was our general determination that you really wanted to be around 40 sacks for the season, and after back to back seasons if 31 total sacks in 2008 and 2009 the Patriots improved to 36 sacks in 2010, good for  t-14th in the NFL.

However Mike Wright’s team leading total of 5.5 was the lowest since 2002, and he only played in 10 games. Myron Pryor also battled back problems this season, limiting him to just a half sack. Losing your top two interior rushers can cripple a team, and it surely had an effect on the Pats, especially in the playoff game where they were sack-less.

But it appears that this Patriots team was on the right track and had Wright played the last six games it’s likely they would’ve been right around 40 sacks.

2010 appeared to be a step in the right direction. It’s hard to read too much into these numbers because they don’t include QB pressures, but when you’re leading sack guy is 4.5 sacks lower than last year yet you still have more sacks total you’re getting better production across the board. 

That is the tenet of the 3-4 defense, applying pressure from multiple different spots. Adding additional young pass rushers both on the interior of the line and at outside linebacker will again be a priority, but it looks like the pieces are starting to come together.

Mike Wright Patriots

The Pats missed Wright late in the season.