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AFC East thoughts from a Patriots perspective

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I’ve resisted commenting on the goings on (or lack of goings ons… cough Dolphins) around the rest of the AFC East until now but it seems like a good point to review the moves made thus far by the Patriots main opposition, and by that I mean Bills and Jets since I have no idea what the Dolphins are doing.

The road to the playoffs goes through the division, and the Patriots have won the division nine of the last eleven years. So what have the Jets and Bills been doing to close the gap?

Let’s start with the Bills. By now everyone knows they’ve signed the big fish Mario Williams, adding him to a defensive line with Marcel Dareus and Kyle Williams. Then they added Mark Anderson as the other bookend.

I have mixed feeling about Anderson. He’s like that guy you let stay in your castle and he’s a valued warrior in a couple battles, then the next thing you know he’s taking a buttload of money to go fight for one of your direct rivals. (I’ve been watching a lot of Game of Thrones lately if you can’t tell). So whatever Mark Anderson, you got paid and that’s fine. Just keep any celebrating you do at the Pats expense to a subdued minimum. You owe us.

On paper, and with a pending 10th overall draft pick, the Bills look formidable. Seems like they’ve seen what the Giants have been able to do to the Patriots and are trying to replicate it, to their credit.

The problem however is the same problem they had last year, and that is lack of depth. The Bills were off to a great start until the injury bug hit them, and then they finished 6-10.

The Patriots off-season has illustrated yet again why they value the middle of their roster as much as the top, and there has yet to be an injury, no matter how major that the Patriots haven’t overcome in the last decade.

So the question is, can the Bills stay healthy? If they’re the rare team that escapes the injury bug they should surely challenge the Patriots. If they can’t keep Anderson, Dareus, K. and M. Williams on the field it could be lights out just like it was last year. And by lights out I mean Sean Merriman who hasn’t quite turned all the lights out since 2007.

I like Ryan Fitzpatrick but it’s all going to have to line up perfectly for him. If the Bills defense stays healthy they should be able to keep Fitzpatrick in a good position. If they don’t, and Fitz is forced to play from behind or “keep up” he will struggle.

The other question is can Fred Jackson continue the kind of dominant performance he turned in last year before getting hurt. He’s a huge key to everything they do on offense and they need a full year from him.

I expect the Bills to get off to a good start, how long they stay on that course will directly relate to how healthy they stay. But for the first time in a long time the Bills games will be ones that Patriots fans circle before the season.

And then there’s the Jets.

Look, I’m a Patriots fan. My general feeling toward our main rivals is well known. But all bias aside, I don’t know WTF the Jets are doing.

If you’re not building your team to specifically take down the Patriots what are you doing? The Jets holes are well documented. Safety, Right Tackle, and Pass Rush are three major needs for them, and what have they done to address any of them? Took a gamble on Laron Landry and signed Tim Tebow.

If Landry is healthy it’s a good move. They absolutely needed someone to help deal with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez because Eric Smith and Jim Leonhard were not getting it done in 2011. Landry could be an answer there.

But the Tebow move does nothing to attack a Patriots weakness (they shut him down twice last year) and it also undermines the quarterback you just extended. We all know Jets fans. Does anyone doubt there will be chants for Tebow, even just mockingly, at the first mistake Mark Sanchez makes? Tebow is another whole sideshow for a circus that has been full of sideshows over the past couple seasons.

To be honest I like being a Patriots fan even more when the Jets are making moves that concern me. Moves that make me think this could be the year they actually win the AFC East. But I’ve seen none of those kind of moves this off-season.

It’s seeming more and more like the only real talent on their roster was either brought in by Mangini or with Rex from Baltimore. Is there a single elite player that’s been added by the Rex Ryan regime? I can list off quite a few Patriots that have been added since 2009 that are impact players, who are on their way to elite if not there already. The Jets cupboards are starting to run bare and I’m not sure where the plan is to restock and build a team that can beat the Patriots.

Not that I’m complaining about it, but come on Jets. The NFL is better when you’re a tough ground and pound team, not a bunch of attention-seeking, contract-misreading, buffoons with no real plan to get back to those AFC Championship games you lost two of.

The Bills sure look like they’ll be ready to give the Pats a run for their money, at least in the early part of the season. While the Jets seem like they’re still trying to figure out what they’re doing. The Jets should have huge concerns about the Bills, especially with the pass rushers they’ve added. The Jets offensive line needs to be a lot better this season or it won’t matter who’s playing quarterback.

I’ll write something about the Dolphins when we know who their quarterback is. Until then, they don’t concern me.

Trevor Scott a versatile fit for Patriots

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With Andre Carter still recovering from a torn quad and Mark Anderson a new member of the Bills, the pass rush solutions the Patriots found in 2011 won’t be back in the same capacity in 2012.

While I expect Carter to re-sign once he can prove his health, the loss of Anderson leaves the Pats with a hole at designated pass rusher, and while Markell Carter should be an interesting player to keep an eye on, I believe that newly signed Trevor Scott could be an even better fit for the Patriots than Anderson.

Scott isn’t one of the heralded Patriots signings. He signed a one-year deal which means he will have a lot to prove if he wants to stick around this season, much less into 2013 and beyond.

Scott entered the NFL in 2008 with the Raiders and demonstrated some solid pass rush skills playing as a sub at both left and right defensive end. He finished the year with five sacks and nine QB pressures in just 233 snaps, including two sacks of Matt Cassel against the Patriots in week 15.

In 2009 Scott started the season off again as a sub player at right end. In week 12 he was moved to a full time starter at linebacker where he racked up 15 of his 28 total tackles in just 5 games. He finished the year with seven sacks and ten QB pressures.

In 2010 the Raiders began to use Scott in different spots every week. Before tearing his ACL in his tenth game of the season he had already racked up 19 QB pressures. He played left and right end and weakside linebacker, and was generally solid in both run defense and pass rush no matter where he was playing.

Upon his return from injury in 2011 it seems like Scot was no longer a significant part of the Raiders plan. He was used solely as a sub defensive left end and his statistics fell of a cliff. Patriots fans are well aware of the drop off a player can have in his first year back from an ACL injury (see Brady, Welker), so it’s safe to say that played a part in Scott’s drop off. But  the coaching staff also no longer used him in a variety of roles which seemed to benefit his play most.

When you look at Mark Anderson’s numbers before coming to the Patriots they are very similar to what we’ve laid out for Trevor Scott, however never before had Anderson played linebacker like Scott. In a perfect world I’d love to have both Anderson and Scott on the Pats in 2012, but if Anderson does walk Scott seems like he’d be a good candidate to replace what Anderson did, and perhaps do it even better in some spots.

This is not to say that I expect Scott to come in and put up ten plus sacks with the Pats right off the bat. But what I do see is a versatile player who played well in a number of different roles for the Raiders, and at 6-05, 255 he’s the ideal size for a Patriots outside linebacker. He should also be back to form being two full years removed from his ACL injury, and he’ll have something to prove with the Patriots being on just a one-year deal.

Scott will surely be a player to keep an eye on when training camp rolls around.

What I look for in Patriots prospects

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Forgive me for not posting much by way of original content the last week or so. It’s not because I don’t care, nor have I given up being an uber Pats blogger, I’ve just been buried in draft research and before I come out and write a post like this one from four years ago (ignore me fawning over Vernon Gholston please) I like to really have a good sense of the prospects before I start commenting on them.

This will be the fifth draft that I’ve blogged about exclusively from a Patriots perspective. I don’t do mock drafts because I don’t know enough about the other 31 teams needs, and ultimately the only thing I really care about when I see a mock draft is who they have the Pats taking. What I do instead is a Patriots-only big board that lists prospects that I think fit what the Pats do (here is last years), ranked in order of value to the Pats and the Pats only. We’ll also do one final Pats-only mock draft the week before the draft.

Last year we had a pretty good year as far as predicting which prospects had Pats potential. Here were our stats:

  • Patriots-Only Mock: 2 of 9 draftees correct
  • Patriots-Only Big Board: 4 of 9 draftees ranked
  • Positions Drafted: 5 of 9 correctly projected (missed TE, QB, 2nd DB, 2nd RB)

I can say now that I highly doubt I can match hitting 2 of the Pats picks this year (Nate Solder & Ras-I Dowling), but that won’t stop me from trying!

Here’s some of the nuggets that I’ve learned over the years of studying the Pats drafts.

Never discount a player based on a combine number

I see a lot of my fellow amateur draft pundits discount a player based solely on random stats like their 40 time, or 3-cone time, or their arm length, or anything else that gets measured in Indy. Ultimately I don’t think any stats you’ll find, especially at the combine, are the key to unlocking the secret code to a Belichick draft. They are pieces of the puzzle, but smaller ones on the periphery. For every “a player needs to be X, Y and Z to be drafted by the Pats at that position” there’s an exception, and if there hasn’t been one yet it doesn’t mean it’s set in stone.

Versatility/Football intelligence are prime factors

There’s no place for a one trick pony on the draft board. Receivers/Defensive Backs with return ability get a big check. Linemen who can play multiple spots do as well. The Patriots run thinking-man schemes on both sides of the ball. If the player doesn’t have the FBI to keep up he’s going to bust, no matter how talented he is physically.

Remember where Belichick comes from

Bill Belichick is the son of the guy who literally wrote the book on football scouting. Ultimately game film and production during the season are the most important factors. Also remember the kind of players Belichick grew up around at Navy. Those type of guys are the originators of the now cliched “Patriot Way”.

This all feeds back into the infamous Scott Pioli quote, “we’re building a team, not collecting talent”. There’s no set formula for building a resilient team like the 2011 Pats were, but we all know the kind of positive, hard working guys that fit best. I won’t necessarily take a guy off the board if he’s made some bad decisions in the past, but it’s usually apparent when a guy is a consistent meatball.

Be on the look out for freaks

Belichick has such a sense of history with the game of football, I believe he truly enjoys finding players who are freakish in one way or another. Just having that one unique skill gives Belichick something to play with and use to his advantage, so when a player has unique size/movement skills (Marcus Cannon) or unique ways of reading/reacting (Brandon Spikes) I believe BB finds himself intrigued.

Know exactly how the prospect fits on the Patriots

This nugget originally comes from Michael Holley’s book “War Room”, where this factor is hit on multiple times as something Pioli/Belichick demand. If you like a prospect you must know exactly how they fit in on the current Patriots and how they stack up. This why things like “pass rusher” or “safety” are too general when talking about the Patriots needs. 

What kind of safety would work best next to Patrick Chung? Or James Ihedigbo? Would they compliment each other? Would playing to the prospect’s strengths adversely affect the other DBs? Or would his strengths fill a need seamlessly?

How would this OLB conversion project be worked into a rotation with Rob Ninkovich and Mark Anderson (hopefully)? And how does that guy stack up against Markell Carter? How will they contribute in year one and is that a necessary missing ingredient for the team?

This year I find this is a big issue for those who project corners that they like. Not enough time is spent telling how the corner would fit in on the 2012 Pats. I can say right now that I have McCourty and Dowling penciled in on the outside, with Arrington in the slot. So will this corner compete to take one of their jobs? And if so does that reduce the value of the pick or even hurt the development of a guy like Dowling who was a high pick himself and might just need playing time to blossom?

So, as you can see a lot of thought needs to go into these projections and that is why I’m building my knowledge base before I start saying who I like or don’t like. Of course I only focus on the draft for three months per year. There are plenty of year-rounders out there that know their stuff, but very few know the Patriots depth and needs as well as they really should to make projections.

Now I don’t claim to be an expert. I have no formal scouting experience. All I can claim is that I’ve been paying attention and I love the challenge of trying to crack the BB code on draft day. I welcome all feedback during the draft process, whether you agree or not with my rankings and thoughts. Too many bloggers get overly offended if you disagree with them, but in the end none of us really know anything about what the true Patriots big board inside Gillette Stadium looks like, so let’s all just get along and have fun with it.

Patriots-only Big Board will be unveiled in 10 days!

Preliminary Patriots draft notes and thoughts on “value drafting”

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We’ve jumped head-first into draft prep over the last week and it’s been exciting getting to know this year’s prospects. As we slowly compose our Patriots Big Board we have some general draft thoughts to share after our initial impression of what’s out there.

This will be our fourth Patriots draft that we’ve extensively blogged about. Each year I think I learn a little bit more about scouting and specifically the Patriots process in how they pick their players, because unlike most draft pundits out there I only focus on the Pats.

What I think a lot of draft pundits fail to understand is how the Patriots style of “value drafting” really works. Most mocks are simple, paint by numbers, “the Patriots are up, here are their needs, and here’s the top ranked player of those needs.

This is not value drafting. Sure, sometimes it works out that way, but ultimately only the Patriots know the true value of each player to their specific system.

A player could seem like a great fit for one of the Patriots first round slots to us outsiders, but if they have a second round grade on the player they will not select him there. Doesn’t mean they don’t like the player or that the player couldn’t help them. They’d just rather take him in the second round while everyone else thinks he’s a first rounder.

Last year’s situation with Mark Ingram is a great example. He seemed like a great fit in an area of need, coming from a Belichick-connected coach. Yet the Patriots saw far better value with Ridley and Vereen later in the draft, who together cost as much as Ingram did. That’s value drafting. That’s how you protect your team against injuries, failed expectations and the salary cap.

This is why I believe perhaps the most important thing to look at when considering the Patriots draft is which positions have the greatest depth and how those positions relate to the Patriots needs.

In 2010, it was tight ends. The Patriots took two of them in the early rounds. In 2011, it was running backs, and again the Pats took two of them in the early rounds.

My early impression of the 2012 draft is that the greatest depth is along the interior line, centers and guards, both positions of long term need for the Patriots.

So while we can all hope the Pats take a potential star at one of the bigger areas of need with their first pick, one thing I can see coming together is using multiple high picks on interior lineman.

There is no question that need affects value. So by that token Patriots fans should be cheering for all tackle and quarterback selections prior to the Pats’ picks. These are areas of lesser need for New England, thus driving more value down the board to the Pats slots.

Notes on Needs

X WR: There should also be some value in the second round for potential X receivers. If the Pats did take a WR with a first round pick he’d likely have to have "The Great Deep Threat Hope” tattooed on his forehead.

Safety: Barron is an easy pick to make in a mock draft, but there should be some safety value in the 2nd/3rd round as well. My initial instinct is that this is an area they’ll address after the first round. Personally I’d prefer more of a coverage safety with range to get over the top as opposed to an ‘in the box’ type. Patriots safeties need to do both, but someone who excels more at the back end is my preference. Will be interested to get a better idea of how Barron moves at the combine.

Center/Guard: Lots of good prospects who fit the Patriots style. If a lot of tackles go early the Pats could be in prime position to get one of the best Centers or Guards in the draft at 27. A lot of people will cry about this. I will not.

DL: Fletcher Cox is the current Pats favorite on the majority of mock drafts, however the Pats-type DL depth isn’t great. I am on board with Cox, but if they miss out on him they might have to wait until the later rounds to get a more developmental guy. Lots of potential 5-techniques out there and I see that as a significant need, but not as big as a Mike Wright-type who can play numerous positions, most importantly interior rusher on passing downs. That’s a need Cox would fill, but there’s no guarantee he falls to 27, and if he doesn’t there isn’t another guy with value in that spot that I see after my initial research.

OLB: The hardest position to project for the Patriots is always the most debated. So many factors this year: will they go back to a 3-4, can the prospect convert to play in space, will Mark Anderson/Andre Carter be back, is Jermaine Cunningham still a factor, how will Markell Carter factor in? Lots to wonder and debate about. So far there do seem like some guys who would fit well, narrowing them down will be one of my toughest tasks over the next two months.

Top 5 Patriots who need monster off-seasons

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Much will be made over the coming weeks of which free agents and draftees the Patriots should go after, but what about the guys already on the roster? One of the always underestimated elements of change over an off-season is the improvement  of players who are already in the pipeline.

Here are my top five Patriots that I think the team most needs to make a jump.

1. Ras-I Dowling – Ras-I missed most of training camp yet suddenly played 67 of 77 snaps versus the Dolphins in the opener. No other player has the potential to positively impact the Patriots defense like Dowling does. He’s got the size they desperately need and apparently the skills to lock down one of the outside corner spots, which could allow Kyle Arrington into his more natural fit in the slot.

2. Markell Carter – Carter won 7 of 13 possible black jerseys this year as practice player of the week, while also adding over 16 pounds of mass since joining the Patriots, going from 252 to 268 pounds. While Jermaine Cunningham cannot be overlooked, Carter could very well be an impact player in 2012 with a full off-season. It looks like he has the size to play in the 4-3 or 3-4 and his development could very well factor into Andre Carter’s potential return.

3. Marcus Cannon – With a full off-season to complete his cancer recovery I’d love to see a big jump out of Cannon. Just the fact that he contributed like he did this year (9 games total, including 77 snaps against the Dolphins in December) is an incredibly positive sign. The real question is where Cannon projects long term. If he can go to right guard he should jump instantly into the mix with Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell if Brian Waters doesn’t return. And if he remains a tackle we saw this year you can never have too many of them. 

4.  Shane Vereen – Vereen only played 26 snaps in his rookie year, but flashed some explosiveness, especially against the Chiefs. The Pats had the luxury of bringing him along slowly after he battled a hamstring injury for a good chunk of the year. While Stevan Ridley should continue to increase his role despite late season fumbles, it’s Vereen who is the real wild card. Let’s not forget he was the higher rated prospect and was drafted before Ridley. Vereen is explosive and if he can translate that explosiveness in the NFL he’ll bring an added dimension to the Patriots offense that is badly needed.

5. Dane Fletcher – one of the great questions of the Super Bowl for me is why Tracy White was playing over Fletcher when the Pats went with their “fast nickel” package. White had barely seen the field once Spikes and Fletcher returned, including 0 snaps compared to Fletcher’s 10 in the AFCCG. With Gary Guyton likely gone this off-season Fletcher looks like he’ll be the primary back up inside linebacker to Spikes and Mayo, with a specialty in pass coverage. Barring the addition of a veteran I’d expect Fletcher to be significant part of the defense, and he’ll need to be in peak condition so that he can stay healthy. The thumb injury that plagued him all season can finally heal and Fletcher can continue his development.

Honorable Mention

Julian Edelman – continued development as Welker insurance at WR, and as a return specialist.

Jermaine Cunningham – 2011 was a lost year for Cunningham, he was battling injury all season long. If he returns to health I think he will again be a considerable factor on defense due to her toughness and versatility.

Devin McCourty – McCourty needs the off-season to get back on track physically and mentally. I expect him to show 2011 was nothing more than a sophomore slump.

Ron Brace – Brace needs to dominate this training camp from start to finish or else he’s probably looking for work somewhere else. He’s shown flashes but it will truly be now or never in 2012.

Final Pats thoughts on Super Bowl’s Eve

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It still seems surreal but the Patriots will be playing in the Super Bowl tomorrow. Wow. I’ve tried to block out thoughts of what the story lines might be whether the Pats win or lose, but it will be nice to finally get on with it.

I love how the media coverage for this Super Bowl played out for the Patriots. Not many in the national media are picking them to win. Tom Brady’s shaky AFC Championship left the pundits two weeks to praise Eli Manning.

The constant Super Bowl 42 highlights were rough to watch, but for at least this week I was able to be at peace with that game. I’m sure it will be back in the vault of shame if we lose this one too.

But with all the questions and discussion of that game, and even Spygate, I have no doubt that the Patriots motivation has been nothing but fueled by this week’s media headlines. 

The Patriots played it low key, and the general mood from Bill Belichick and the team was one of quiet confidence. And the Giants and New York media have just kept throwing gasoline on the flames.

I expect Gronk to play like he’s not even hurt. But if he’s a little limited I think the Pats can protect him and still have him be effective. If he’s severely limited it could really be a problem. Having Vollmer back really does help them out by taking some blocking slack from Gronk.

I think Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes are going to have big games for the Pats. The Giants have been vulnerable to blitzes up the middle and I think the Pats will attack them there.

The defensive line has to dominate this game, if they don’t get to Eli he will pick us apart. Mark Anderson needs to come up big. But so do Gerard Warren and Kyle Love. Of course I expect Wilfork to be his usual self, is that too presumptuous?

I am most curious to see how the Pats choose to cover Nicks, Manningham and Cruz. My guess is that they’ll spin the dial a lot and try to make it hard for Eli to know who’s covering who. 

I expect the Patriots to play like they have something to prove, and it seems like the Giants are buying into their own hype a little too much. But who knows whose side the Football Gods will be on. No way to know who’s going to get the bounces and the calls and really, there’s a good chance those will determine the game. 

I just hope it goes our way. 

Sleep well my Patriots brethren. For tomorrow we play for a Super Bowl. 

Belichick’s got a whole new D

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Lost somewhere in between Gronk’s ankle and the Patriots 31st-ranked passing yards allowed is the storyline that the Patriots are returning to the Super Bowl for the first time in four years with an almost entirely new defense.

Take a moment to think about the latest “old and slow” defense that the football pundits are talking about needing a youth movement, the Pittsburgh Steelers. How overwhelming does it seem to have a complete turnover of that defense (save one single starter) and have them back in the Super Bowl in four seasons?

That is no small undertaking when replacing players as talented on that defense, just like it was no small undertaking replacing legends like Bruschi, Harrison, Vrabel and Seymour.

The pundits love to talk about Belichick’s draft misses, and to be sure there have been plenty of them. That’s what happens when you have a ton of draft picks, you’re going to miss on some. But you’re also going to hit on some, and the Patriots have hit on enough to give Pats fans confidence that this defense is going to only get better, and will be very good for a very long time.

Ron Brace might not live up to the 2nd round pick you selected him with. But Kyle Love and Brandon Deaderick have certainly exceeded all expectations anyone had for when they were undrafted and a 7th rounder respectively.

The fearsome foursome I want to focus on are Jerod Mayo, Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty and Brandon Spikes. Now all have had their performance and injury issues over the first few years of their Patriot careers, but their style of play and temperament have become the signatures of this Patriots defense. It won’t always be perfect with them, but they never get down and they certainly never give up.

The result of Super Bowl 46 will of course be over-analyzed to death, with repercussions on the legacies of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. But the Patriots defense, for all it’s faults and imperfections, is set up extremely well for the future and the playoff experience that the players have gotten this year will only be a booster to their development.

Not many organizations in NFL history have the kind of continuity that allows for one person in charge to oversee a complete turnover on one side of the ball. Of course it hasn’t been perfect, but returning to a Super Bowl with an almost entirely new collection of hand-picked draft picks and castoffs from other teams should certainly be a major feather in Belichick’s hoodie.