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Patriots Defense Finally Showing Signs of Dominance

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This season we’ve covered plenty of reasons why the Patriots defense has struggled. Whether it was the long passes or the dependence on turnovers there was always something to point to as to why the Patriots defense was the weak link in New England’s Super Bowl dreams.

But after Monday night’s dominating win it looks like the Patriots defense is finally coming together in a way that has not been seen in a long time. Sure, the Patriots have put their best football together after Thanksgiving the last couple years, but this season is different.

The Patriots are 21-0 in December going back to 2010, and stats like this paint a broad picture of why:

In the first half of 2010, the Patriots surrendered 198 points, or an average of 24.7 per game. Over the final eight games, they reduced that number to 105 points or 13.1 per game.

That trend continued last season. After giving up 184 points (or an average of 23 per game) in the first half of the season, they reduced those numbers to 158 points and a 19.7 average.

However this notion that the Patriots defense suddenly becomes lock down down the stretch is somewhat misleading. In the last two years the Patriots have faced only two top-10 offenses, and both of those had back up quarterbacks at the helm, 2010 vs. the Packers and Matt Matt Flynn and 2011 vs. the Eagles and Vince Young.

Otherwise the Patriots faced offenses ranked an average of 21st both in 2010 and 2011, with average records of 7-9 (2010) and 5-11 (2011). Not exactly the kind of teams that you prove your defense against.

Getting off the field on Third Down

We don’t want to overstate the significance of one great performance but the Patriots defense has been positively trending for the past few weeks now in a way that exceeds what they did in past seasons.

Let’s begin with third down defense where the Patriots have just turned in their best three game performance of the past three seasons.

Typically elite NFL defenses allow 1st down conversions about 30% of the time. In 2010 and 2011 the Patriots ranked 32nd (47.1%) and 28th (43.1%) respectively. Their current ranking of 26th (41.7%) might not jump off the page, but their 27.0% third down percentage in the last three weeks signals where they’re headed.

Winning Without Turnovers

As we touched on extensively last week the Patriots defense has largely been dependent on turnovers, especially forced fumbles, to win, leaving us to wonder if they could get the stops when the opponent wasn’t giving up the ball.

In the last two weeks the Patriots are dead even with their opponents in turnover margin. Both against Miami and Houston the turnover battle was a push with one giveaway and one takeaway in each.

The fact that the Patriots have won two tough games, one against a divisional rival on the road and another against a top AFC team, without relying on turnovers bodes very well for the defenses development.

No More Touchdown Bombs

In the first half of the season the Patriots were struggling to find answers on their back end. They were leading the league in 20-plus passing plays given up with nearly six per game. In the first eight games they gave up a staggering 10 touchdowns of 20-yards or more.

However in the five games since the Pats acquired Aqib Talib and moved Devin McCourty to safety at the bye they’ve allowed just one touchdown of 20-yards or more. Talib’s presence especially was apparent against the Texans, and has allowed the Patriots to finally play more man-to-man defense, an essential tactic in today’s pass-happy NFL.

Meanwhile McCourty’s presence on the back end, along with Steve Gregory’s return to the lineup has brought an element of calmness to the defense. Since their week off the Patriots have given up fewer and fewer points each week: 31, 24, 19, 16, 14.

Primed for Playoffs

Despite solid statistics in recent seasons after Thanksgiving there was always a recent to say “yeah but” about the Patriots defensive performances. Whether it was an unimpressive offense they had faced, an over-reliance on turnovers or simply the offense bailing them out by scoring a insurmountable amount of points.

But of late the Patriots defense looks like they have gone from simply riding to Tom Brady’s coattails to being a strength for the team. There’s no better evidence than in the game against the Texans.

The Patriots offense started on fire, scoring touchdown on their first three drives, but they soon after went cold, going three-and-out on their next three possessions to end the first half, then punting again after their first possession in the second half.

The door was still wide open for the Texans to mount a comeback, but what did the Patriots defense do? Forced two punts and stopped the Texans twice on fourth down, holding the lead long enough for the Patriots offense to get back on track.

That’s the kind of complimentary football not seen in New England in some time, especially when it didn’t come via turnovers, and even more especially against an elite offense like Houston’s.

The Patriots have had one of the youngest defenses in the NFL the last few seasons, and just now we’re starting to see the group come together. Against Houston they looked fast and aggressive, but most importantly playing with everyone on the same page.

If they can continue to play like this the Patriots defense just might be a strength going into the playoffs instead of a liability that needs to be overcome or hidden.

Texans vs. Patriots: 10 Keys to the Game for New England | Bleacher Report

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Texans vs. Patriots: 10 Keys to the Game for New England | Bleacher Report

Friday post previewing the Pats-Texans is up. 10 Keys, we went all out.

The Texans have the best defense in the NFL on third down (28 percent), and the Patriots have the best offense (53 percent). This should make for an epic chess match on the most important down in football. But really, success on third down is largely tied to success on first and second down, which means the team that stops the run better will set itself up better for success. Specifically, the Texans defense allows conversions on 3rd-and-6-plus 23 percent of the time, but on 3rd-and-5 or less, it allows conversions 39 percent of the time. That is a significant difference and also a greater jump than the Patriots offense in the same situations (38 percent and 48 percent, respectively).

On coaching scared of injuries

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I was listening to FoPP’er (Friend of PatsPropaganda) Jerry Thornton’s appearance/flash guy audition on Dennis and Callahan this morning and the good old boys decided to ambush my fellow Hoodie Head by rehashing the whole “Gronk shouldn’t be on special teams, Welker shouldn’t be returning punts, they’re too valuable” argument. I wanted to jump through my internet radio feed listening to it, as I usually do when listening to D & C try to wax poetic on football strategery.

So here’s my two cents, because as a card carrying Belichickian with a forum to express my opinion I’ve been too silent on this issue.

Really, before Gronk who was the last Patriot to get injured doing something the sports pundits deemed him too valuable for? Who was the last guy to get injured on the extra point team? Or even returning a punt for that matter?

It’s never that cut and dry or simple, and this stupid argument has gone on far too long. Almost as long as the running up the score one but that’s another post for another day.

Look at 2009. The Pats were ready to sit Welker in the finale against the Texans after a couple series, knowing he was too valuable. What happens? First possession he blows out his ACL making a simple cut that he’s made a thousand times (albeit on some shoddy sod).

Or how about 2008 when Brady didn’t take a single snap in preseason? Well that makes sense, right? He’s too valuable to get hurt in preseason. Then he goes out in the first game, looks like his timing is off and ends up getting his season ended after holding the ball far too long and stepping right up into Bernard Pollard’s oncoming low blow.

The point is that if you want to be a successful coach you don’t do it from a perspective of considering which players are more important than others or which situations are more dangerous than others.

You play your best players where they’re best because that’s what makes you the best team.

You cannot coach and prepare your team with “not getting people injured” as impetus, not only because it’s a waste of time, but because of the message it sends your team as well.

“Player A is too important to do this, but hey shitty Player B you should be a fine stop gap in there and if you get hurt it won’t matter. You might fumble the ball or miss a block and totally screw us, but hey, at least our important guys will stay healthy.”

That’s not how you coach to win week in and week out.

And there’s no closing that Pandora’s Box once you open it. Devin McCourty’s our best defensive back, should he really be playing kick off coverage? And forget about the extra point team, what was Gronk doing on the kick off return team where he basically gets in a car crash every play?

While we’re at it should Mike Vrabel have really been playing offense? He was one of our best pass rushers. Or what about Troy Brown playing defense? I know we need him but defensive backs get hurt far more frequently than wide receivers.

You could make a case for any number of starters who shouldn’t be playing special teams, or in roles outside their normal positions, or in games that are already decided or have no meaning.

Injuries are the worst part of sports, but there’s no way to predict or avoid them. You’ve got to try to make your team the best it can be at every spot and if guys get hurt doing something that might not be their forte so be it.

At least they got hurt doing everything they could to help the team win, and that’s what this is all about.

And I really hope Jerry gets the flash job now so he can continue to be the voice of genius football coaching on D & C. They need someone there to enlighten them on a permanent basis.