PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

analysis

Pats Posits: Just Because Edition

by

Per my earlier post of the SB49 Sound FX episode, it’s starting to feel like the playoffs are coming and I’m getting fired up. Probably played “For Those About to Rock” and “Sunday Bloody Sunday” a little too loud on my way into work this morning, and we’re still nine days away from the 2015 Patriots season actually starting.

One of the things getting me fired up was listening to Felger and Mazz for Bedard’s appearance this week. This is the only time I’ll listen to Felger and Mazz for reasons like Mazz pumping the brakes on Malcolm Butler all season long only to name him his number one star for the season on this episode. But what really got me fired up was Felger’s pressing Bedard to choose whether the 2015 Patriots underacheived or just didn’t have as good of depth as the he’s been led to believe. Felger kept hitting “they lost four of their last six” over and over and even Bedard was getting frustrated.

Had I not been listening to it after the fact I might’ve been tempted to call in. In Felger’s black and white sports world it has to be one or the other, but what he leaves out is that this was not the same Patriots team for the last six weeks of the season. Every single one of those games they were missing someone new. Gronk, Hightower, Vollmer, Easley, Blount, McCourty, Chung, the list is long and distinguished. 

How can you just lump those games all together when each one had significant new challenges?

Here’s the bottom line – the Patriots lost more man games that any other team in the NFL and still finished 12-4. Yes, they had 14-point leads in two of those losses and had some bonehead play calls and strategy, but name me another team that would ever call a 12-4 season “underachieving”. 

Or name me another team that would be anywhere close to competitive with their third-string right tackle starting at left tackle. Yeah, let’s just put Brady back to pass 50 times with Cameron Fleming protecting his blind side. What could go wrong?

Felger and Mazz know what their doing so I don’t often take the cheese, but this is one time his dismissiveness really got me fired up. So yeah, whatever. You do you, guys.

Another bit of news this morning that excited me was the announcement that Peyton Manning will be the Broncos starter for the playoffs. I love it. And yet there are plenty of Broncos fans thinking this is the year Manning will take them to the promised land. 

Nevermind his playoff history, nevermind how bad he looked at the start of the season when he should’ve been healthy, nevermind he’s still not fully healthy, nevermind the weather in Denver could severely limit his already limited game, nevermind he doesn’t really fit Gary Kubiak’s offense, nevermind his lack of arm strength basically makes Emmanuel Sanders nothing but a deep decoy, nevermind all of it. This is the year Peyton will get it done!

Gameplanning for Peyton is simple for the Patriots and actually helps their defense. They can stack the box against the run and honestly their running game scares me more than anything. You take away the short throws and force Manning to beat you on deep passes. I don’t know if he can do that anymore in perfect conditions, much less if there’s some kind of bad weather on game day.

I hated losing homefield at the time, but now the Broncos are almost assured to play the Steelers or Chiefs, two teams that will give them major problems. I’ll be shocked if we don’t see Brock Osweiler at some point, whether the Broncos are in a hole or it’s just a terrible weather day.

PatsPropaganda :: Patriots’ Super Bowl Dreams Come Down to the Health of Two Players

by

PatsPropaganda :: Patriots’ Super Bowl Dreams Come Down to the Health of Two Players

Last week I wrote about the importance of Chandler Jones to the Pats in the playoffs and I still think he’s the key guy if they’re going to win the Super Bowl. But if Edelman and Hightower are shells of their usual selves they might not make it out of the first round.

2015 Patriots Stat Roundup

by

One of the things that I think gives this blog a unique perspective is the long-term stats that I focus on. This time of year, when the 2015 Patriots’ regular season is in the books, I love seeing how this team stacked up against the rest of Belichick’s teams.

Despite an incredible amount of injuries this season, the Patriots didn’t drop off a whole heck of a lot from last year’s Super Bowl team. They certainly had an easier regular season schedule, but despite all the key departures of last offseason plenty of guys stepped up and that bodes extremely well for the direction of the franchise.

Let’s start with the DVOA of the offense, defense and special teams.

As you can see, this year’s team and last year’s we almost identical as far as the efficiency is concerned. One major place the Pats had significant improvement on the defensive side of the ball was:

It shouldn’t be surprising that the season Belichick finally got a legit third defensive end (Jabaal Sheard) and had a pure interior rusher (Dominique Easley) for most of the season, that the third down numbers were top 10.

Here’s a closer look at how the Pats did against individual receivers:

We can’t really say these rankings reflect directly on Butler or Ryan as they weren’t always on specific threats. 

The real concern I have, and it’s reflected here, is at the slot corner position where Leonard Johnson had a huge target on his back the last two games. This also follows how teams generally beat the Belichick philosophy of taking away what you do best. That results in guys like David Tyree or Chris Matthews (SB49) having big games. That could be where the playoff games are won or lost if Johnson (or Justin Coleman) isn’t up to the challenge.

Finally we look at the “Bend Don’t Break” chart:

Lots of interesting stuff happening here, starting with the Yards-per-Drive taking a major step forward, while Turnovers-per-Drive dropped to their worst rate in a decade.

The Patriots have had fewer interceptions the last five years in a row since 2010: 25-23-20-17-16-12. Yet the defense has gotten better in each of those years generally. What gives? Why would getting less turnovers and specifically interceptions be the sign of a better defense?

I relate it to the shift away from zone defense to more man coverage. The Pats D of the early ‘10s didn’t have much talent, so instead they played conservative zone defense, waiting to break on poorly thrown balls or deliver big downhill hits that forced fumbles.

Now, the secondary is in man coverage, so instead of sitting back and waiting to pounce, they’re running around tracking their receivers. It’s a lot easier to drop into zone then break on the pass than it is to be running stride-for-stride with a receiver, turn around, find the ball and pick it off.

All of this points to positive trends with the Patriots defense and I give the front seven a lot of credit. They’re as deep and talented now as they were during the first three Super Bowls, and good news, everyone of importance comes back next year.

Pats Posits: Who Are the 2015 Patriots?

by

It’s hard to believe we’re about to close the books on another regular season but the strangest part is that I don’t really know who the 2015 Patriots are. Are they the dominant Dion Lewis-at-RB team from the first half of the season? Are they the “Sick Jamie Collins” defense they played a month with? 

Really, the defining characteristic of the 2015 Pats seems to be getting by with what they had on any given Sunday. Players were in and out all season, still they lost just three games, two of which came in overtime, while also having 14-point leads in two of the three as well.

No, the 2015 will truly be defined by how well these injury-riddled Pats can come back together and perform under the pressure of the playoffs. How healthy will Edelman, Hightower, McCourty, Chung, Vollmer (and even Chandler Jones) be in two weeks? Can they step in and play at the highest level necessary to win in the playoffs? Or will they be just enough out of sync to not be able to make the one or two critical plays often needed to win a playoff game?

So in a lot of ways the 2015 season has felt like one long preseason. There are certainly things we know – that this defense is the best they’ve had since 2007, and in my view is the best and most promising for the long term since 2003. Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan and Malcom Brown have emerged as legitimate building blocks, while free agent Jabaal Sheard has taken the pass rush to the next level.

But on offense things are far more murky because of unrelenting injuries. Can Steven Jackson convert a critical third-and-two? Can Edelman step in and make an incredible catch on third down while taking a big hit? Or will he not quite be up to game speed and make a critical drop? What about Amendola in that situation? Can Vollmer take on the kind of dangerous pass rushers with his bum ankle? Will Hightower and Jones be shadows of themselves, or will three weeks off get them back to near-100%?

Most of Pats Nation seems to count on everyone coming back, stepping in at 100% and making all the key plays like they did in last year’s playoff run. I am cautiously optimistic, but the 2015 Pats’ fate will depend entirely on how fast the offense can “re-click” and we just don’t know for sure how close to 100% many of the vital players are.

Usually you know who your team is by this point. You know where the expectations lie for them. This year I’m not so sure, and given how the playoff field is lining up, I don’t see a Colts-esque slam dunk anywhere for this Patriots team.

Obviously the playoffs will define the 2015 Patriots and each game will come down to a small handful of critical plays the Pats will either make or not, but right now we still just don’t know the true impact of all these non-season-ending injuries that have thus far been the only consistent trait of the 2015 Pats next to Tom Brady and Malcolm Butler starting.