analysis

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 8 vs. Bears

October 24, 2014 by Mike Dussault

The 5-2 New England Patriots welcome the 3-4 Chicago Bears this Sunday after a ten day break coming off their Thursday Night Football win over the New York Jets.

The Pats badly needed some time to regroup and get healthy, especially along the offensive line where Dan Connolly and Bryan Stork are still recovering from concussions. The Pats also got news that they’ll be without Chandler Jones for the next month, this coming on top of losing Jerod Mayo and Stevan Ridley for the season the week before.

The Patriots looked tired and had poor communication against the Jets, but hopefully the last ten days have given them some time to get back on the same page. They also traded for linebacker Akeem Ayers this week, who was buried on the Titans depth chart, but could see immediate action given the Pats’ injuries on defense.

Here’s the gameplan for the Bears…

Offensive Gameplan

Despite some up and downs against the Jets, the Patriots offense is starting to find their stride. Shane Vereen looks like he might now be New England’s feature back, while Brandon LaFell has developed into the big target Tom Brady has lacked for a while.

With Rob Gronkowski looking better and better each week and Julian Edelman continuing on pace for 100 catches and 1,000 yards, the Pats offense should feast on a suspect Bears secondary.

The Bears are 30th in DVOA against tight ends and 26th against #2 WRs – signs that point to big games for Gronk and Edelman.

Tom Brady has never had a problem finding the open receiver, and if he continues to throw the ball downfield with better accuracy and consistency the Pats offense could find another gear this week.

Getting tight end Tim Wright even more involved should be a focus this week, especially with more expected spread formations. Perhaps it’s time to revisit the Vereen-White double RB sets.

This game will be about the pass, at least early. If the protection holds as it has in recent weeks, the Pats will move the ball.

Defensive Gameplan

The Patriots have had three ugly defensive performances – the win over the Jets and the two losses to Miami and Kansas City. All three looked the same with the Pats making fundamental errors – missed tackles, lost contain and untimely penalties being the main problems.

Those problems are fixable, but there’s little question the Bears will look to attack a Patriots run defense that has been shredded this season. They are currently 23rd in run defense DVOA.

The receiving combo of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey might provide the most interesting challenge of the season for the Pats’ secondary. Darrelle Revis has had success against Marshall in the past, while Brandon Browner’s size should be an asset against Jeffrey.

But even if the coverage is great, the pass rush might be the biggest concern. The Pats are currently 25th in the NFL on third down and they were that bad with Chandler Jones, their best pass rusher. How much worse will they be without him?

No secondary can cover forever, so it will be on the replacement pass rush parts – Dominique Easley, Zach Moore and perhaps Akeem Ayers to get after Jay Cutler and force mistakes.

Points of Emphasis

1. Generate Pressure Any Way Possible: As I mentioned above, getting to Jay Cutler could be the deciding factor in this game. If Belichick needs to get creative to generate pass rush so be it. In the past we’ve seen Belichick resort to walk-around amoeba defenses on third down to aid the pass rush. He’s not going to be sending six pass rushers every down, but the occasional slot corner blitz has had some success. Expect a healthy rotation in Chandler Jones’ spot, someone has to get the job done.

2. Fundamentals: This defense needs to find some consistency with their fundamental skills. With the extra time off, I expect we’ll see better tackling and the Pats are always more comfortable against a traditional pocket passer like Jay Cutler. When the Patriots simply make the tackles they’re in position to make and don’t get overaggressive and lose sight of their “job”, they’re a solid defense. But at some point they need to start stringing success together and it starts against a Bears offense that has plenty of weapons.

3. Hammer Down Immediately: The turmoil in the Bears locker room was well-documented last week and the Patriots need to come out of the gate with guns blazing to plant the seed of doubt immediately in this volatile team’s minds. This applies on both sides of the ball and it starts up front. The offensive and defensive lines must be ready to explode on their respective first series to set the tone and let the Bears know it’s going to be a long night. If that happens, the Bears could fold and start making mistakes that only make things worse.

4. Get the New Guys Involved: Between Jonas Grey, Zach Moore, Akeem Ayers and Dontae Skinner, the Patriots will need contributions from some new players going forward and it’s important to get them involved and start building their confidence and experience. This could come at the expense of giving up some plays, but it’s better to take those lumps now in October against an NFC opponent. The sooner we find out who can help the team win, the sooner they can start helping.

5. Win: I’m trying my best not to look ahead to the Denver game. Not only for the game itself, but for the awesome pregame tailgate giveaway party we’re throwing. But Brady-Manning is a headline game every season and the Broncos look like the best team in the NFL. That challenge will have to wait. For now the Pats have to take advantage of being at home against a team they should beat. This is the start of an incredibly hard stretch of games and every win matters. Get to 6-2 and worry about the rest next week.

Patriots vs. Jets All-22 Thoughts: Offense Edition

October 22, 2014 by Mike Dussault

The Jets never make things easy for the Pats offense and this game was no exception. Featuring a good deal of Cover 3, the Jets played fairly conservative this time around, but when they picked up the pressure in the second half they had some success.

The difference though was Tom Brady, who was calm in the face of pressure all night, delivering strikes to the holes in the zones with remarkable consistency.

Here are my notes from the All-22 rewatch, offense edition:

Jets opened in off-man coverage and Brady-LaFell took advantage with two comeback routes in a row. Brady’s passes were a little high though.

Jets were in a Cover-3 on Vereen’s first touchdown with five guys across the field at about five yards depth. Seemed like they would allow the short stuff then plan on coming downhill with big hits. The problem – the back left safety bit on Wright underneath leaving Vereen wide open. Big mental mistake, and one that really came back to haunt the Jets at the end.

Second possession was a three-and-out but a nice hard run by Jonas Grey. Third down saw the same kind of coverage as Vereen’s touchdown, with the Jets dropping 7 in zone coverage. It seems like the Jets were also a little more respectful of the Pats deep passing game than they have been in year’s past. And certainly more than other opponents have been earlier this year.

Really vanilla coverages and not much aggression by the Jets so far. Has to be due to their lack of good cover corners. They’re playing some man on the Pats’ third possession but it’s off-man that’s supported with underneath zone coverage.

Here’s the Jets’ third down zone coverage, only rushing three. This one goes incomplete downfield to LaFell for the Pats second-straight three and out.

Jets send five guys on the first play of the fourth drive, but the protection holds and Brady easily lofts a perfect pass to Edelman for their first first down in three possessions.

The Jets’ zone coverage continues to work well early as Brady has a pass deflected at the line on second down. However there isn’t much pressure so it seems like Brady is finding a comfort level in the pocket.

Same coverage on third down and Brady finally finds the hole in the coverage, connecting with Gronk for a first down. Pinpoint throw, solid pocket. Drive continues…

Play-action comes next and the Jets pay for it because their linebackers aren’t dropping this time. Brady finds LaFell, showing good patience under a bit of pressure. As of now, the Jets defense certainly isn’t in his head like they often can be.

Gotta tip the hat to the pass protection so far. Those are some good rushers and Brady has all the time he needs. I think the Jets wanted to just rely on their guys winning the matchups instead of the usual deception of “who’s coming, who’s dropping”. They weren’t winning against our rag tag band of OL anti-heroes.

As Greg Bedard pointed out in his film review Jordan Devey has to have better awareness after just sprinting downfield, not realizing that the called screen to Shane Vereen had been blown up. Inexperience shows there.

Vereen’s second touchdown below and as you can see, the Jets drop 9 into coverage including four guys around Gronk. Brady waits and finds Vereen for the TD.

Brady really found his stride against the Jets zones on this drive, calmly taking his time and delivering pinpoint throws to the holes in the zones.

Final drive of the first half and the Jets start to send some more pressure, blitzing Davis and dropping Richardson into a short zone. Finally some more Rex-like defense. Then comes an LB/S blitz on the next down but Brady finds LaFell for the first down.

Great throw by Brady on the next down with pressure in his face as he finds Gronk for 20 yards. Jets rushed just four but finally got Wilkerson through as he beat Devey.

After a PI call the Pats get a 1st-and-10 at the 12 with :23 second left. First down – Jets drop eight, Brady can’t find a hole. Second down – Jets get a free rusher off the edge, forcing Brady to scramble and throw it away. Then Devey takes the retalitory penalty and we’re kicking a field goal headed into the half. Missed opportunity there, but good defense by the Jets.

Linebacker blitzes are continuing in the second half, along with Sheldon Richardson dropping into short zones. Brady’s on in this one though.

Third-and-3 and we’re seeing two deep safeties. Very surprised by this, especially from the Jets. Brady has time and finds Edelman for the first.

Just not a whole lot going on in the run game, only enough to keep the Jets aware of it. But this game was all about Brady and the passing game. Makes it even more befuddling that they tried to run on the last possession of the game. But we’ll get to that…

I don’t know how you defend the quick hand off to Edelman in motion. One of these days a defensive end is going to read it and clean Edelman’s clock, but for now it looks unstoppable.

Jets hold the Pats to a field goal 3rd-and-9, again running the three-deep, five-under coverage with just three rushing. Brady finds the hole but they come up just a couple yards short.

Jets force a three-and-out on the next drive, with their pressure finally winning some one-on-ones. Cannon gets beat on third down and Brady has to rush his throw to Amendola, who was open. Would prefer not to see Cannon rotating in at tackle any more, and definitely not at guard.

Another three-and-out due to pressure when the Jets sent 6 then an Edelman drop. On third down pressure is again a factor as Solder gets beat off the edge just enough to get Brady off rhythm. Jets pressure coming through in the clutch here in the second half.

Jets sending pressure again on the Pats final touchdown drive but Brady is right on the money three times in a row to get the Pats inside the 10 yard line.

But then two penalties back them out to the 19. That would’ve been a major storyline had Amendola not made a spectacular touchdown grab. Have to be more disciplined that close to the end zone with the game on the line.

Now the final Pats possession – three straight handoffs to Shane Vereen that netted one total yard. I don’t know why they didn’t throw here. Brady was so on fire in this game, put the game in his hands.

Oh well, Chris Jones came through in the end.

Regrouping After Two Patriots Signings and an Injury

October 22, 2014 by Mike Dussault

Yesterday was a little hectic on the real job front so not only didn’t I get a chance to discuss all the Patriots news that broke, I also didn’t get to the All-22 offense review.

Here’s the first part of that equation. As you probably know by now, Chandler Jones is out a month with a hip injury. The good news is that the bye should be included in that month so optimistically he misses the Bears, Broncos and then the Colts.

Of course those last two will have playoff implications and that’s where it hurts most.

To compensate for both the loss of Chandler, as well as Jerod Mayo, the Pats signed Akeem Ayers and are expected to sign DL Alan Branch. How both will fit and how they’ll force an evolution in scheme is anyone’s guess right now.

But my biggest concern right now is what it’s always been for the Patriots defense since 2010 – third down defense. Chandler was one of the only guys getting consistent pressure, and even he wasn’t as consistent as we would’ve liked.

You criticize the Patriots however you want, but at the end of the day, third down defense has been what has killed this team. And despite their best secondary in years, along with the first-round drafting of a pass rushing specialist, their problems have continued this year. In fact they’ve regressed so far.

Now without their best pass rusher and on the verge of facing three very good quarterbacks, including that Peyton Manning guy, the Pats have a huge challenge in front of them.

Branch has been out of football a while. Considering his size I don’t think we’re seeing him much if at all until after the bye week. He’ll likely be used as a defensive end, mostly on early downs.

As for Ayers he does have some versatility and some pass rush ability. But he was buried on the Titans’ depth chart, so to expect him to come in and be the kind of pass rusher the Pats need might be a little too lofty an expectation.

It’s the subpackages that concern me, not how this impacts the 34 or 43. Ayers should allow some flexibility to move Hightower and Collins around. But can he come in and bring pressure from the right defensive end spot like Jones did?

I’d expect against the Broncos and Colts they would be almost entirely in sub-packages, so Ayers could step in immediately with a significant role.

There’s no question, Rob NInkovich and Dominique Easley must elevate their game, especially getting after the quarterback. Easley looked okay at defensive end filling in for Chandler against the Bengals, but I don’t think he’s ready to be an every down player in that spot.

Zach Moore has only played 27 snaps so far this season, but that would seem very likely to increase substantially this weekend.

Most likely is that we’ll see a steady rotation at the defensive end and outside linebacker spots until the Pats (hopefully) find something that works. It’s only three games, but they really must find a way to at least split with Denver and Indy to keep their chances of a playoff bye. That’s obviously a tall order, since both teams are firing on all cylinders on both sides of the ball.

In the long run, losing Chandler for a period of time could be a positive in a similar way to how the Pats got to find and develop Chris Jones and Sealver Siliga after last year’s injury to Vince Wilfork.

They had no depth at defensive end and linebacker as it was, so this is a chance to get some of the unproven guys some experience. Maybe once Chandler returns we’ll have an even better front seven with Ayers and Branch in the mix to take some of the load off of him.

Ultimately the Pats have no one to blame but themselves for these problems. They played with fire having no depth behind their starting linebackers and defensive ends and now they will pay a price for it.

How much it hurts them in January will remain to be seen, but no one circles the wagons like New England.

Patriots vs. Jets All-22 Thoughts: Defense Edition

October 21, 2014 by Mike Dussault

This was as bad of a defensive performance as I’ve seen since, well, the Chiefs game, but the Pats get a bit of a pass given the short week and injuries they were coming off of.

Still, most of the defense lacked the necessary “pop” to their game, and save a three-drive stretch where they forced punts in the second half, the Jets offense basically had their way with them.

Still, they made the very last play of the game and that was enough to get an ugly win. The defense is much better than this and we’ll certainly see them look a lot better against the Bears this weekend.

Here are the All-22 Defense thoughts…

Pats mixed their coverage and personnel on the first drive, none of which was especially effective. Ninkovich immediately displayed the recurring problem of the night, crashing down and losing contain.

They matched receivers at times. Browner was playing outside cornerbacks as I expected. I really don’t think we’ll see him inside on tight ends or at safety.

All four safeties saw snaps on the first drive. McCourty gave up a third down conversion after being in press man on Cumberland. Interesting that NE uses him not only on the back end but in this role as well.

Jamie Collins isn’t great in base against the run, but when he’s in subpackages and has room to use his speed he’s very good. He’s learned to take a beat to find where he needs to go rather than immediately reacting and getting himself out of position. He should be a good weapon against Matt Forte this week.

Not as impressed with Casey Walker early on as I have been in weeks past. He’s not getting off blocks. In fact, the entire DL is having trouble with that.

Sometimes it seems like Collins thinks he’s even more athletically capable than he is. Here’s a prime example where he needs to come downhill hard to Wilfork’s right. Chung has the backside. Collins isn’t fast enough to make this play headed where he’s headed.

Chandler Jones is so slippery inside, it’s notable given his length. The Pats showed some looks on passing downs with him inside, they even shifted Easley to DE at one third-and-long. Might need more of that.

There really is nothing worse than watching a quarterback scramble for a first down on third-and-long.

The shift to a 3-4 front seemed tied to their inability to stop the run. It’s a Wilfork-Walker-Jones front three. This included Chung in the box for an 8-man front.

Great screen recognition in the second quarter, along with a pressure from Easley that came quicker than the Jets were hoping it would. Small steps for Easley so far, still waiting for that first big play from him. Should be coming soon.

9 in the box and they still give up 5 yards on this run.

Now here’s a hole. This went for 9, not sure where Casey Walker was going as he started at the left hash and basically took the whole defense to his right side out of the play. Collins is late to react but gets in the way to make the tackle.

After sustained drives all half, along with so many games in a short time span, the defense looks gassed at the end of the first half. But they came through in the red zone once again.

Ninkovich picked up right where he left off by getting pinned inside and losing contain on two of the first three plays in the third quarter, picking up a total of 29 yards.

We first saw the three cornerback, one safety package last year and it’s popping up again this year. It often comes with press man across the board, but leaves a seven man box for run protection. It’s a mix of sub and base.

Twice the Jets converted third downs on their first drive of the third quarter with Kerley and Decker aligned closely together. First time they crossed and Decker got separation on Dennard. The second time Revis played outside leverage on Decker but the receivers crossed later again opening up enough separation for Decker to convert at 3rd-and-12. Nice play design by the Jets.

Jamie Collins is pretty solid at getting out on running back swing passes.

Just a dominant first drive of the third quarter by the Jets featuring a balanced attack. Had been hoping the Pats would bring some fire out of the locker room but it would have to wait until the next three drives.

Pats switched it up a bit on the next drive, going to a 4-3, then a 5-2 front. Coverage was good and helped force a four-play drive. Credit Dont’a Hightower with a good tackle that prevented the running back from converting a checkdown on 3rd-and-12.

They force a three-and-out on the next possession, bringing six on third-and-long with Chandler Jones finishing it off. Really, I don’t think the interior run stoppers looked that bad for most of the game. Once Ninkovich stopped losing contain there wasn’t anywhere for them to go.

Another solid stand, their third in a row, on the next drive. Again, more coverage than pressure on third down. Browner is what he is, a big outside corner who’s going to take some penalties this year. When he’s on the outside and has the sideline he’s effective, when he has to pursue across the field, he’s not as good. But his makeup speed is better than I thought it was.

Here’s Chandler Jones owning Ferguson on the edge, stopping Vick for a loss. Too bad there’s a penalty on Logan Ryan.

Probably the most frustrating play of the day comes on 3rd-and-2 as Geno Smith converts running it after being totally flushed out of the pocket and surrounded by Pats. How does he get out of this…?

Pressure was a big problem after reviewing this one, and here’s a great example below. Five man rush with four guys on single blockers and no one wins.

Yards-after-contact piling up here in the fourth quarter, especially inside. Defense is gassed top-to-bottom now.

Smith finds Cumberland for the touchdown to cap off another impressive drive. It was Chung in coverage, just a couple inches off. This is why Chung gets pulled off in coverage situations. Not his bag. Never has been. Never will be. Credit to Geno for finding that matchup.

They went back at him on the failed 2-point conversion but I liked how Chung stuck with Decker. Often those passes are wide open, but Chung did enough to force a perfect throw that Geno did not make.

Final drive to set up the missed field goal start with checkdowns from Geno. Good drive starters that the Pats seemed okay to allow.

Geno makes back to back throws to get them to the Pats 45 when the play essentially broke down but the pass rush just couldn’t finish him off. That’s what happens when you only send three guys. Pats then send five guys to remedy that and Geno finds the checkdown for another five yards.

Pats just couldn’t make that one final play to finish the game on this drive. Something we’ve seen plenty of in recent years in close losses. Luckily Chris Jones found that last bit of gas to preserve the win.

3 GIFs That Defined Patriots Win Over Jets

October 20, 2014 by Mike Dussault

In a tight divisional game like this was, the plays at the end of the game are usually the ones that define it most. My choices this week are no exception. There was the Pats first touchdown pass that caught the Jets asleep and there were a few sacks, notably by Chandler Jones, that I could’ve gone with, but these three plays were the ones that gave the Patriots the win.

This first play was the feel-good moment of the game for those who had been waiting for Danny Amendola to show up in the passing game. Just an incredibly acrobatic catch from Amendola as it appeared that his kickoff returns got him into the game flow early in this one. Hard not to feel great for Amendola as he came through in the clutch like this. If he can continue to develop into a threat, the Pats offense will have another difficult dimension for opponents to defend.

And as if the game-winning touchdown wasn’t enough, Amendola recovered this scary onsides kick on the very next play. It had to have been a frustrating start to the 2014 season for Amendola, but these two huge plays show why you just have to keep battling.

Finally, comes the game-saving blocked field goal attempt. Such poetic justice after how last year’s overtime game ended with Jones getting called for a silly penalty that handed the Jets the win. I think there was a pretty good chance this one was going to be good too. Again, this should help spark Chris Jones in what has already been a solid start to his second season after coming back from injury.

Previous Three GIFs:

Pats Posits: A divisional win is a divisional win

October 17, 2014 by Mike Dussault

Going into last night’s game I didn’t really care much about style points, and there were certainly none to give out, at least on the defensive side of the ball.

Given the events of the past week – two divisional games in five days, losing defensive and offensive leaders for the season, and missing two of the interior offensive lineman who had stabilized the protection – add it all up and it was one of those games where all you really care about it getting a win and that’s what the Pats got.

Here are my Posits…

So much of the defensive problems were reminiscent of the Chiefs game, except instead of Chandler Jones losing contain every play it was Rob Ninkovich. So many of the runs seemed stopped in the backfield by the “wall” that Wilfork and Chris Jones had created, and as Ninkovich tried to crash down to finish the ball carrier it opened up the edge and allowed him to bounce outside for a big gain.

These kind of things are fixable and really, it’s way out of character for Ninkovich to be playing like that. He will be better.

Overall the defense looks like they really need the 10 days to get healthy and regroup. But there are some things that will remain concerns, primarily Jamie Collins playing middle linebacker. It’s been clear this year, Collins is awesome on passing downs and in space. When asked to take on offensive linemen he doesn’t have the physicality to defeat them, instead needing to use his athleticism to slip around blocks. This is somewhat of flashback to Gary Guyton playing mike, a bad situation that culminated with the 2009 playoff loss. I don’t know what the answer is, there might not be one, but Collins is going to get run at a lot the rest of this year.

Chandler Jones came through with some big plays this game, including his sacks, as did Dont’a Hightower despite playing with a bulky knee brace. The long break is needed for Hightower to get back to form. He’ll really have to be the all-everything of the linebacking corps going forward this year. This is his defense now.

Interesting that Kyle Arrington only played one snap as Dennard move the slot. I’m not sure if Dennard is best there, but I really like his play of late despite some penalties and catches allowed. How the Pats use those two going forward will be something to watch.

As I tweeted last night, I wonder if the Pats still would’ve pursued Browner if they knew holding and illegal contact would be called like this now.

Patrick Chung continues to show up as the Robber safety and will be needed even more to help stop the run without Mayo. He was PFF’s top graded Patriot defender.

Third down defense was atrocious until the red zone. I don’t get it. The players change but the results since 2010 remain the same – the Pats are simply one of the worst teams in the NFL in getting off the field on third down. For going on five years in a row now.

As for the offense, I thought it was a decent step forward for the offense. The protection was decent and Brady seemed to have a good sense of when Rex was bringing the house and when he was dropping the house.

Can’t get enough of these deep shots that Brady is taking now.

What a difference Brandon LaFell is making to this offense. This is the guy we’ve been missing in recent years. Not a deep threat, a big receiver who presents a different matchup problem that the Welker/Branch/Edelman/Amendola guy.

Not sure if Vereen will have the same workload as he did last night for the rest of the season, but he stepped up to the challenge of being the go-to guy last night. The Pats seemed to take extra steps to put him in good position. Vereen has a great chance to earn another contract from the Pats. If he plays like he did last night consistently, he’ll be a lock.

Jonas Grey showed enough hard-running to sell me on getting him more involved. The fact that he had more carries that Brandon Bolden shows you the Pats probably feel about Bolden the way that I do. He’s a fill-in back, not a feature guy.

Edelman has earned enough good will that he gets a pass for his drops last night. Let’s just hope it doesn’t become a habit. Without those drops, the Pats end it a lot earlier than they did.

Like just about everyone else, I’m not sure why the Pats keep rotating Marcus Cannon in. My best guess is that they’re trying to preserve everyone, but he’s a liability even when he gets in there for one snap. Solder has had a rough year, but I’d still much rather leave him in there all game.

Really, really worried they’re running Wifork into the ground again. Luckily Siliga and Walker look like capable interior replacements if anything happens to Big Vince. As a threesome they are formidable.

Really happy for Danny Amendola. He really provided a spark with his kickoff returns and then that carried over into two huge game-cliching/saving plays. Let’s hope he can keep it up. A fourth tough receiving target would take this offense to unstoppable territory.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 7 vs. Jets

October 16, 2014 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots get their Thursday night game out of the way this week, facing their divisional rival the New York Jets. When the Pats and Jets meet we cant throw the records out the window. Yes, the Jets are 1-5, but have had close battles in almost all of the contests and there’s little question Gang Green will be up to play their rivals.

Full disclosure – I love Rex Ryan and love that he coaches the Jets. He’s the perfect Yang to Bill Belichick’s Ying and his defensive gameplans are always fascinating to study, especially when he’s going against Tom Brady.

The Jets have the right talent in the right spots to exploit some of the Patriots’ weaknesses but the game might ultimately rest on the shoulders of Geno Smith. If he plays a mostly error-free game, it will go down to the very end.

Offensive Gameplan

With rain in the forecast, mistakes become magnified, so the biggest thing on offense is execution, especially being careful with the ball. The Pats practiced with wet balls this week to hammer this point home. With two teams that know each other well an untimely fumble could be the difference in the game.

The Jets feature an impressive defensive front and Sheldon Richardson Damon Harrison and Muhammad Wilkerson should test a Patriots offensive line that has been shaky at times throughout the season. With Stork and Connolly out, backup Josh Kline, who struggled last week against the Bills, should see plenty of aggressive attacks from the Jets interior.

Nate Solder will also have his work cut out for him against Wilkerson as he looks to get his season on track.

Perhaps most important though will be the communication on the offensive line. Rex Ryan loves to run all kinds of blitzes that will test even the most veteran offensive lines. They cannot afford to miss someone and allow a free hitter in on Brady, especially with slippery conditions.

If the passing game is affected by the weather it will put the magnifying glass on the Pats’ run game sans Stevan Ridley. Their ability to move the ball on the ground could be another one of the major factors in this game.

Defensive Gameplan

Between the wet conditions and Geno Smith’s penchant for turnovers, all signs are pointing to the Pats playing mostly zone defense tonight. This can be maddening to watch, but it’s a staple of Bill Belichick’s defensive philosophy. If he doesn’t think a quarterback can execute without multiple game-deciding mistakes, he’s happy to put seven guys into coverage, send limited blitzes and wait for the interceptions to come.

Sometimes the quarterbacks will put together an error-free game in this scenario and it can be frustrating to watch multiple underneath passes completed. But usually the Pats defense will stiffen in the red zone even if the turnovers don’t come.

This method puts the pressure on the front four of the Patriots. They must get to Smith to help force him into mistakes. If the pass rush is non-existent, Smith will make plays and then things could get dicey.

5 Points of Emphasis

1. Trench Warfare: You don’t want to oversimplify any points of emphasis, but this game will be won in the trenches on both sides of the ball. For the Patriots, protecting Tom Brady and picking up Rex Ryan’s complicated blitz schemes is paramount. As we’ve said time and again, if Brady has time, he’ll move the offense. If the Pats give up early pressure and don’t find a rhythm on offense it could be a long night.

2. Born to Run: With Stevan Ridley out of the season, the Pats must find who can carry the rock on early downs. Brandon Bolden might be the easiest choice, but he lacks Ridley’s explosiveness. Or perhaps practice squadder Jonas Grey gets a chance. Regardless, Shane Vereen must step up and make plays. If he doesn’t, the Pats offense could be dangerously close to one-dimensional.

3. Who will Stop (us from passing in) the Rain?: The Pats passing game is really starting to take off in the last couple weeks, and it would be a shame if the rain retards that development. With the Jets devastated by injuries in the secondary, it’s where they are most susceptible. Even with driving rain, the Pats must try to attack their cornerbacks.

4. One way to Skinner the Jets: Deontae Skinner is likely to see plenty of action tonight, and while he looked very much like a rookie last week against the Bills, this is a time to get a good look at Skinner in a significant role to get a feeling for his ceiling. If they could manage to get a lead, it would be beneficial to get Dont’a Hightower off the field to rest his injured knee. Even Jamie Collins is battling a thigh injury. Tonight is Skinner’s shot to prove the Pats don’t need to go looking for another linebacker outside the organization. He might not get another one.

5. Win: The Pats get an extended break after this one – a great chance to get a bit healthy after a string of injuries the last two weeks. If they can get to 5-2, including 2-1 in the division, they will be in great shape as they approach the halfway point of the season. Tom Brady hasn’t lost an AFC East game at home since 2006 and the streak should continue if the Pats play their usual clean game.