analysis

New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers All-22 Thoughts: Offense Edition

December 11, 2014 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots’ offense was surprisingly ineffective for most of the night against the Chargers, but broke through once Julian Edelman got hot and never looked back.

Tom Brady hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders the last two weeks, and while the run game has been nearly non-existant after running wild over the Colts, they’ve still been making enough plays to win or keep it close.

Here’s what stood out reviewing the All-22 film of the offense against the Chargers.

The first drive of the game for the Pats went 17 plays for 89 yards and ended in a field goal. From that point they’d have just two more drives that lasted double-digits, and six that ended in a punt or a turn over. This is the kind of streakiness we became familiar with last year, when the Pats would go from being unstoppable one drive to not getting a first down the next.

After a run that lost yardage and an incomplete pass, the Pats faced a third-and-12 from their own 7 right off the bat. Chargers show Cover-2 then shift to Cover-1 at the snap. Brady rolls right as Vollmer pancakes his rusher, then finds Edelman who was freed up by the Chargers shift in coverage. Good for 24.

Just not a lot of push in the run game early on, blocks aren’t going very far. I don’t love Blount when the OL stinks like this, he’s great with a head of steam and can sometime make something out of nothing, but generally his explosion out of the backfield isn’t something that stands out. Usually if they hit him in the backfield, he’s going down.

Third-and-1 from the 36 and the Pats use misdirection and play fake to Develin up the gut, then toss it to Blount who goes for 9. The Pats have struggled in third/fourth-and-short this year, ranking 26th in the NFL in first down percentage. Misdirection like they use here is becoming necessary. Will this be an issue in the playoffs? I know I’ll be extra tense on every third or fourth down of two yards or less.

Jonas Gray gets two carries back-to-back and I’d like to see a little more of him. He has good explosion out of the backfield. He may be a better fit early on in games than Blount wiht the way this OL struggles to get push.

Third-and-goal from the 1 and Brady takes the sack, good coverage by the Chargers. Disappointing end to a long, plodding drive. Pats liked their power personnel in this game but it wasn’t all that powerful. Less Hooman please.

Second quarter now, Pats move to their spread offense and Brady finds LaFell for 19. A great catch in traffic by LaFell.

Blount for no gain on the next play as Ingram blows Solder back with a shot to the head. Coming in to the season I wondered if the Pats would extend Solder, but now I’m thinking his sub-par season will allow them to let him test the market then sign him to a far-more affordable deal than anticipated. This is good and bad. Is he the LT for the long term, or is it worth considering an upgrade? Regardless, with Vollmer’s age/injury history, Cannon’s regression and Solder’s play this year, they should be on the lookout for tackles in the draft. Or maybe Cameron Fleming has potential worth looking at.

LaFell fumbles and it goes for six. LaFell’s earned some good will this year so I’m not even mad at him. Let’s just hope he’s getting that out of the way now and it doesn’t continue.

Back to the spread after the Pick-Up Six and the Pats run the same play on back-to-back plays (they do this alot), first goes to Edelman on an dig for 8, then Gronk on an out for 35. The difference was on the second Te’o is showing blitz, while he was covering Gronk on the first one. This signals Freeney will have to drop and cover Gronk, thus a big gain.

Same spread formation for a the third snap in a row, just with Gronk on the other side now, but different play this time as Brady tries to hit Wright on an out-and-up from the slot. This shows some of the Patriots offensive strategy. Same looks, sometimes different plays. Sometimes the same play.

This spread formation moved the ball well, with no running back on the field. For the most part it was LaFell/Amendola on the left, Edelman on the right, with Gronk/Wright being moved from the wing to the slot.

They move Amendola into the backfield to open space for LaFell in the red zone but it falls incomplete. This formation could be deadly if they can run no huddle out of it, great combination of quickness and size.

They bring Vereen in for Amendola on third down inside the 11 yard line and Brady finds Edelman for a first-and-goal. The red zone struggles defined this game, because the offense moved the ball, at least through the air.

Brady does miss Wright on second down. Tries to force it into Edelman.

Pressure breaks down the third down play as Freeney’s patented spin move beats Solder. Pats kick the field goal and it’s 14-6.

Pats get the ball back off the Ayers inteception at the 25 yard line. This is New England’s bread and butter, making teams pay for turnovers.

Brady finds Gronk for the touchdown four plays later, is there any question where the ball is going here?

Pats force a punt with 1:32 and have a great chance to take the lead before half. They go spread with Vereen, but it takes an 11-yard gain to Gronk on third-and-9 to get things moving.

A questionable DPI call gave them 17 yards and then a screen to Vereen put them in the red zone. Two plays later comes an ugly Brady interception.

Here’s how things look just before Brady throws it. Protection is okay and Gronk is single-covered, but the pass is going to be way short and easily picked.

Of course Amendola is WIDE OPEN…

On to the second half…Let the three-and-outs begin!

After having success with the spread, the Pats go back to the their power lineup featuring Hooman/Gronk. And Tyms is on the field which signals to the defense that here comes a deep shot. The Chargers’ Cover-3 takes Tyms away.

Gronk gets 9 on second down, setting up a third-and-1, aka the Pats offensive kryptonite this year. Stork can’t seal his guy off, meaning Blount has to overpower two guys and he can’t. Punt.

Same power personnel on the next possession. Questionable. Chargers don’t bite enough on play action and the first pass falls incomplete. Wright comes in and they run out of it, but only four yards as Gronk’s block isn’t enough.

Third-and-six, Pats go spread but the pass gets tipped. Would’ve been incomplete anyway. Good coverage by Chargers and the Pats go three-and-out for the second straight possession.

Pats back on the field, still down 14-13. They first try a screen to Gronk that loses 6 yards. Then a short dumpoff to Vereen picks up 7. Great coverage by the Chargers. Pats went back to the Vereen/Wright package but everyone is covered.

Third-and-14, Chargers in a Cover-2 shell leaving no one open again. Good pressure from the right side forced the throw too. Another three-and-out (not counting the initial false start penalty that backed them up 5 yards). Gross third quarter here.

Problems continue on the next possession as Blount loses 2 yards on first down with the left side of the line being overhwhelmed, especially Solder.

Gronk picks up six on second down to set up a third-and-6. Gronk was alone on a corner out wide but it looks like he started his comeback just a little too late. Rare that that happens with Brady and Gronk. Punting again…

End of the third quarter as the Pats start to find a rhythm. Passes to Gronk go for 9 yards back-to-back as we enter the fourth quarter. An end-around to Edelman might’ve gotten more if Gronk doesn’t get blown up block at the left edge. Pats had problems over there all game.

Edelman stepping up here, with gains of 14 and 10 to get the Pats to the Chargers’ 30. But the drive stalls on third-and-3. They go spread but Brady seems to force a throw to LaFell down the sideline that is off the mark. Good coverage.

Pats take the field goal and the 16-14 lead.

Pats get the ball back after another punt and here comes the play that defined the game, Edelman’s 69-yard touchdown. Reminded me a bit of Jordy Nelson’s catch and run TD against us last weekend. Just great quickness by Edelman, and one of those kind of plays that defines a big game.

Now comes the final real possession of the game, with the Pats needing to drain the clock, they do just that. Possession starts at 6:18 and they take it all the way down to just before the Two Minute Warning.

It was a plodding drive, picking up just enough yardage to keep the chains moving, but the one big play was a 23yard run by Blount. Which was just a broken play that he cut back to the left side.

On paper this drive looks great, but it certainly wasn’t a dominant as one might think. These are drives that are critical in the playoffs and I still am a little under-confident that their run game can turn one of these in with everything on the line. It’s an area to monitor over the last three games.

Negative plays on first down certainly were a big part of this game, along with the Pats inability to run the ball out of their preferred power personnel. Was it an off game? Are the Chargers just a good run defense on this night? Or is this a real problem? We’ll see…

New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers All-22 Thoughts: Defense Edition

December 9, 2014 by Mike Dussault

Given the context of this game, it was probably the best defensive effort by a Patriots team in some time. In a word, they were dominant. The Chargers didn’t get a sniff of anything in the second half and the fourth-down stop to seal it was the cherry on top.

The fact that they did it without Dont’a Hightower or Chandler Jones, their two best players earlier in the season makes it all the more impressive. Jamie Collins was a standout, and Akeem Ayers and Jonathan Casillas, neither of whom were even on the team two months ago, have taken a heavy swig of Patriots kool aid and done a great job filling in.

Here’s what else stood out on the All-22 film review…

As expected the matchups were Revis-Allen, Browner-Floyd, Arrington-Royal, with a mix on Gates though we did see McCourty manning him up, something we haven’t seen much, if any, of this year.

Taking a page from the Packers the Chargers go right at Arrington with a Royal double move in the first play. Incomplete.

Brown squirts out of the backfield and picks up 15 yards as he crosses underneath the coverage. Casillas looks like he was on Brown, but backed up a bit too much allowing the cushion for the first down.

After picking up 10 yards on a draw to Mathews, they try another one but this time Wilfork walks both guys double teaming him into Mathew’s running lane. Seemed like the Pats are backing off on Wilfork’s snaps a bit now with such a solid DT collection. This is good news for Wilfork in Jan/Feb.

Vince Wilfork –– 31 of 56
Sealver Siliga – 25 of 56
Chris Jones – 24 of 56
Alan Branch – 16 of 56
Dominique Easley – 9 of 56

The coverage is just amazing on the next down, as it was most of the night. So many times Rivers just had nowhere to go, even though the pressure wasn’t quite getting there. Against pocket passers this defense is perfect.

Third down and Collins gets the sack. On this down Browner shifted to Gates, with a side of Ninkovich jam. Pats showed Double A gap pressure, as they have been doing a lot of lately. As I’ve said for many years, this team needs pressure up the middle. Thought Easley would be the answer, but instead scheming the linebackers inside and showing pre-snap pressure has been getting the job done.

This time it’s just poor preparation by the Chargers as both the C and RG block Casillas who wasn’t even coming. Collins was coming, no one blocked him and he got the unblocked sack.

For future opponents, managing the A gap blitzes or drops by the linebackers is imperative. Chargers are punting for the first time.

Second possession for the Chargers now and their best one of the game, the only one that would produce a touchdown all night.

Another double move attempt, this time to a lumbering Gates who was being covered by Patrick Chung. Again, that’s so Packers.

Arrington comes on a slot corner blitz but Rivers finds Gates underneath for 12 yards. Really good quick release by Rivers just a moment before Arrington got there. Like the aggression by the Pats D in this early spot.

Perfect technique by Siliga on the next down, fends off blocker, sheds and makes the tackle for a 1-yard gain. Siliga looked far better than expected for someone coming off an injury.

3rd-and-9 and McCourty comes up on Gates. Pats are in Cover-2 Man as Rivers finds Green on a crossing route, matched up by Collins. These crossing routes are the only thing hurting the Pats at this point.

Mathews dances through the line, then steams ahead for 17 yards. Branch gets run out of his gap, as Ninkovich crashes down and gets pinned. That leaves Chung, who gets blocked by the pulling OL and Casillas, who overpursues. Jones wraps but falls off the tackle. Multiple breakdowns on this one, one of the few good gains for the Chargers all day.

Collins with a one-armed jersey tackle of Mathews on the next down, one of his many solid plays on the day. Seems like the game is slowing down for Collins and he manages the perfect balance of being patient to diagnose then using his excellent speed and quickness to blow plays up.

Browner bites on a double move by Floyd and it’s just enough for the touchdown throw. Here was the highwater mark of the night for the Chargers offense, lots of punting from here on out.

Third possession for the Chargers and their first three-and-out of the night.

Run for two yards, then a checkdown for four yards sets up a third-and-four. Pats again show Double A gap pressure but drop both LBs into coverage. Pats play a Cover-3 this time with five underneath defenders which negates four of the Chargers targets. Ninkovich helps end the play early with his edge rush while Easley does a good job attacking the center and pushing him back into the pocket.

Collins comes on a disguised blitz on the third play of the next possession, pushing the center aside to get to Rivers. It was this play that had me shaking my head at how good Collins is becoming. Just relentless attacking the LOS.

I’ll take the tripping call by Arrington if only because had Mathews gotten outside of him he might’ve been gone. Sometimes a 10-yard penalty is better than an 90-yard TD run.

Great pressure on the next down, with Ayers giving a strong edge rush and Wilfork coming around the clean it up. Ayers has been very solid but Chandler is still the better player.

3rd-and-5 and the Pats put Tavon Wilson into the dime linebacker money spot. They’re in a Cover-1, doubling Royal with Arrington/Wilson, and he seemed like the intended target on another crossing route. Rivers chucks it and they’re punting again.

SECOND HALF

Collins starts things off with a tackle-for-loss, then Rivers misses the touch pass to Oliver out of the backfield.

Third-and-12, Pats go Cover-2 Man, only rushing 3. Rivers checks down to Oliver and it’s the first three-and-out of the second half.

Ayers pushes Gates into the backfield on the next first down, giving the Pats another great start to a defensive possession.

They pick up 10 on a pass to Gate on the next down, but a good angle by McCourty holds him two yards short of the first down, setting up 3rd-and-2.

It’s a unique pressure look that sets up the sack and gets the Pats off the field once again. Ayers moves inside next to Collins and they show the Double A gap pressure. For some reason the right tackle blocks down on Wilfork, leaving Ninkovich as a free hitter. Rivers was not happy after this one.

Browner Unnecessary Roughness call comes on the first down of the next possession. Said it yesterday, since this didn’t come back to haunt them I love that it’s now out there. It’s a positive for the Pats defense now. A tone setter and warning to upcoming opponents.

A sick tackle-for-loss by Arrington. Arrington is polarizing but I’m a fan, he’s a very good slot corner. Hopefully he’s fully healthy for the playoffs. He’s always one of those guys playing through major injuries we don’t learn about until after the season.

McCourty gets sent on a blitz but Rivers gets it off and Royal takes it for 22 yards. Another one of those plays where the blitz gets burned. These are why the Pats aren’t stupid aggressive. They pick their spots.

Pats were in a clear Cover-3 look on Ayers’ interception. The twist that probably got Rivers is that Collins/Casillas both blitzed their A gaps, while Ninkovicha and Ayers dropped to the short zone. Casilas also got a bit of pressure, including a hand in Rivers’ face.

The defensive struggle of the third quarter continues with 3:09 left in the 3rd quarter. Rivers finds Floyd for 28 yards with a spectacular catch. One of those “tip the cap” plays.

Keenan Allen gets his first catch of the day, for three yards, on Revis. Amazing how he was a complete non-factor. He was a guy I really liked coming out too. Guess BB knew he’d be neutralizable?

Third-and-8 now with the Chargers still clinging to a one-point lead. Pats go Cover-2 Man with McCourty on Gates and he quickly closes to defend the pass to the old tight end. Would’ve been a first. Put this play on McCourty’s All Pro submission reel. He can do it all.

Fourth quarter now and New England has taken the lead 16-14. Chargers need to respond now.

Underneath crosser goes for 4. The Pats have shut those down after the Chargers had some success in the first half. Another one to Allen on the next down, but it’s a bad throw and he falls right down.

Third-and-6 now, they target Royal on Arrington but Rivers can’t step up due to pressure from Wilfork and Ayers. The pass falls off target.

Pats have taken the 23-14 lead now and the Chargers haven’t done much of anything this half. Here comes a chance to make it a game with 8:41 left and the ball on their 20.

Chargers get 24 yards on essentially a broken play as Rivers dumps it off to Brown, who was in blocking but squirted out as the pocket disintegrated. Pats close it down now.

Siliga and Jones split a sack two plays later, one of the bigger moments in the game, just killing any attempt the Chargers might make at a comeback.

This sets up third-and-four near midfield but there is just nothing open downfield and Rivers has to scramble, getting stopped well short of the first down. A lot of teams might go for it here at 4th-and-4 near midfield down 9, but the Chargers don’t.

Last chance for San Diego and it’s a flawless 4-and-done but the Pats don’t give an inch and the pressure is solid even with three guys.

Tavon Wilson’s perfect tackle of Gates, short of the first down, to end it was the perfect cherry on top.

What stands out most about this game? Rivers just had nothing open downfield. This is quite a departure for a team that used to live by the deep ball under Norv Turner.

Instead their only big gains came on checkdowns that were usually crossing routes or broken plays where the Pats just made a few mistakes.

But those plays were rare and overall this was as shutdown of a performance that we’ve seen out of the Patriots defense in a long, long time.

3 GIFs that Defined Patriots Win Over Chargers

December 8, 2014 by Mike Dussault

Had to throw some bonus GIFs into this one because there were so key many moments that just had to be included. For the most part this game was a defensive struggle, but the Patriots just made a couple more big plays in all three phases that made the difference.

We have to start with Brandon Bolden’s blocked punt, which I admittedly missed because I picked the wrong time to hit the concession stand. I’m just not used to the defense forcing quick three-and-outs like they did last night. Not only was this a big boost for the Pats, but it also broke Scifres collarbone and put him out of the game. Had their kicker not done a pretty good job filling in, this play might’ve been more impactful in terms of field position. This play got things going.

Next comes a blown-block sack by Ninkovich. These are the critical moments in big games, when you’re down in the second half and you must get off the field on third down. You can put it all on the Chargers (like Philip Rivers did after dusting himself off), but some credit must go to the Patriots scheme that was sending and dropping guys creatively.

You knew this next one was coming. The huge number of Patriots fans reigned down boos in the stadium after this replay and yes, it probably shouldn’t have been called, but since it didn’t come back to bite them in the ass I love that this play is all over the place now. Talk about an easy way to define the Patriots’ defensive personality, all the air play of this hit is sending a message to the wide receivers of the NFL. Keep ya’ head up!

And yes, the call left us all like this:

Now comes the play that broke it open, Edelman’s long catch-and-run, the furthest of his career. This is what the Patriots do, they hang in there no matter how flat they looked earlier in the game, and suddenly they have a nine-point lead and are ready to close it out. I’m glad the offense came through like this too, for the defense’s sake. They deserved to win with that performance.

Lastly, we come with a double sack from the interior duo who rose to prominence last year – Chris Jones and Siliga. Great to see how they close the pocket and get the sack to force a third-and-long and eventual punt on a critical series. These GIFs should the complimentary football the Pats are playing right now. If that continues, they’ll be an extremely tough out no matter who they play.

Previous Three GIFs:

Pats Posits: Fear the Pats D

December 8, 2014 by Mike Dussault

Back in the saddle after a great time in San Diego yesterday, handing out goodies before the game, meeting a ton of awesome Patriots fans, then enjoying as stout a defensive performance as I can recall.

Being at the game live is always a little bit of a unique viewing experience, but in many ways I think you get a better feel for the rhythm of the game without all the commercial breaks while also being able to focus on whatever you want.

Must give a tip of the cap to all the Patriots fans who were out in force for the game. They were everywhere and they were loud. The section behind the Pats bench (where I sat for the 2006 AFCDG) was electric and starting chants the whole game. It was cool to be in enemy territory but feel the collective presence of so many Pats fans.

As for the game, here’s what stands out most to me.

First, as I wrote in the game plan, this was a huge game for the Pats. A win would put them very much in command of the top seed in the AFC. A loss would made a trip to Denver for the AFCCG likely. So there’s no question, with last night’s win, the Pats will have a manageable track to the Super Bowl as long as they can hold serve in the division.

Of course, what’s everyone talking about today? The Browner hit. Of course that’s not a penalty before this year, in fact Browner laid out Welker the exact same way in 2012 and there was no flag there.

But I think the outrage over the non-call is perfect for the Pats defense. We’ve all known the Pats defense lacked that vicious reputation since Rodney Harrison retired, well now it’s back and everyone in the NFL will be reminded of it every time that hit is replayed.

It was worth the penalty just to put that hit on center stage and now opponents will be even more wary every time they go up for a pass against our secondary from here on out. I love it.

Offensively the team struggled most of the day, and the biggest problem I saw was on first down. They had 24 first downs and 18 (!) of them were either incomplete or went for less than 4 yards. Nine went for no gain or lost yardage.

Those problems added up and made the third downs more difficult. Seven of 16 third downs were of six yards or more.

They also left points on the board, going 1-of-4 in the red zone.

Still, they kept fighting and found a way to break through with the big play to Edelman that was the play of the game.

But it’s the defense and special teams that get most of the credit. That’s actually a very good sign, especially on the road, of how balanced this year’s Patriots team is.

Other than one 11-play touchdown drive, the Chargers really did nothing on offense. Just look at the domination in the second half:

Seemed like the Chargers were only having success on crossing patterns early in the game, and the Pats shifted up to more Cover-3 looks, with short-zone linebackers/safeties teeing off on those in the second half. That shut down everything the Chargers were doing.

Jamie Collins impressed me so much last night, and he’s really been picking up steam the last few weeks. Early in the season (when he was on the injury report with a thigh injury), I thought Collins looked a little too tentative, more reliant on his athleticism to get around blockers than using force.

Now Collins is using force and when he blitzes he shows incredible violence with his hands. The fact that he had a huge game with Hightower out will only build his confidence and the coach’s confidence in him.

For the Pats to come out of this last stretch of seven games, the iron of their schedule, and only have lost one game in Green Bay by six points is incredibly encouraging.

The 2014 Patriots are the most talented and balanced team since 2007. They finally have matchup pieces on defense to dictate the game, instead of just holding on and needing to rely on turnovers to get wins.

I still have some questions about their run game and ability to pick up short critical yards in big moments, but there’s plenty else that can compensate for those problem areas.

But there’s no doubt about it, 2014 Patriots are the best team in the AFC and if they’re not representing the conference in the Super Bowl it will be a disappointment, moreso than any season in the last seven.

New England Patriots Game Plan: Week 14 at San Diego Chargers

December 5, 2014 by Mike Dussault

When the Patriots play teams like the Broncos or the Packers, it’s all hype, while games like these against the Chargers are usually a little under-the-radar. There’s no question, the Chargers are a dangerous team, and every time Tom Brady has played in San Diego it’s come down to a (missed) field goal at the end.

I feel like this game will define the 2014 Patriots in many ways.

A win and the team will be back on track after fighting valiantly in the loss to the Packers. They can turn the page to closing their season out with three-straight divisional games, two of which are at home. No more elite quarterbacks. No more unknown foes. Just the three teams they’re most familiar with standing between them and the top seed in the AFC.

But with a loss to the Chargers and the AFC East is in play with the Dolphins coming to town and additionally, there’s a very good chance that Denver will re-take the top overall seed for the playoffs in the AFC.

Not to say that I don’t think this Patriots team could win the AFC Championship in Denver – they have the makeup and talent to win anywhere, but everyone knows how hard the Patriots are to beat at home.

This is a defining game for the 2014 Patriots. Here’s my game plan…

Offensive Gameplan

The Chargers’ defense is similar to the Patriots in that their pressure tends to come from scheme rather than talent. As always, what matters most is making sure Tom Brady is protected. The main focus there is with Dan Connolly, who has been battling an ankle injury and has been terrible the last two weeks (and pretty much the whole season) as you can see from Pro Football Focus’ rankings:

If Connolly’s problems continue, the Patriots are in trouble. Interior pass rush has always been Brady’s Kryptonite and play like that which is graded out above is like inviting Lex Luthor into the Fortress of Solitude with an open door.

Otherwise, the Pats have to realize who they are and what they’re good at. Against the Packers there were too many shots downfield that were way off the target. We’re a dink-and-dunk team, and an unstoppable one at that. Let’s own it.

Involve everyone. Edelman is banged up. Gronk is going to be a major game plan target for the Chargers. It’s time to get the Tim Wrights and Danny Amendolas and Shane Vereens more involved. Brandon LaFell continues to shine, but rounding out the attack around him will take this offense to the next level while giving those gameplanning for the Patriots offense a nightmare of choices.

Defensive Gameplan

The match ups in the secondary seem obvious: Revis on Keenan Allen, Browner on Malcolm Floyd, Arrington/Ryan on Eddie Royal, with Chungs/Collins on Antonio Gates. It’s becoming obvious that the fate of the Patriots this season might just hinge on those doing the covering who are not named Darrelle or Brandon.

This is a copycat league, so you can expect the Chargers to be planning a heavy dose of Royal and Gates no matter who is covering them. Perhaps that means it’s time to shift the man coverage more frequently, to not let Rivers get into a rhythm with any single receiver.

But Brandon Oliver is also the kind of running back who has given the Pats fits in the past. They’ll have to keep an eye on him.

But the coverage won’t really matter if the Pats can exploit the Chargers’ offensive line, the weak link of the team. The Pats pass rush has been average to non-existent in recent weeks and they must start winning the one-on-one matchups if they’re going to keep Rivers from having success.

It seems like Chandler Jones could possibly return, that would be a huge boost. If not, it comes down to four players – Ninkovich, Ayers, Chris Jones and Easley. Those guys must start causing havoc or else the Pats won’t be going very far.

5 Points of Emphasis

1. Pass Rush Re-emergence: After a quarterback, there’s no more important element to a successful NFL team than its pass rush. The challenges of recent weeks have had the Patriots’ pass rush up and down, but the time has come for them to make a statement and the Chargers offensive line is ripe for the taking. Rivers isn’t going to beat anyone with his feet like Luck or Rodgers, so there’s no reason for hesitation. Pin back the ears and go get him.

2. Chung/Arrington/Ryan: These guys better be used to having targets on their backs because it’s going to continue this week. How they do in coverage against Eddie Royal, Brandon Oliver and Antonio Gates might just determine the game. The Chargers know and the Patriots should know it as well.

3. Throw to Score, Run To Win: It’s time for the offense to get back to what they do best – attacking the short zones and picking up yards-after-catch in the first half to get a lead, then giving the rock to Blount/Gray to bleed the clock and seal the game. Of course it begins up front with the offensive line – who aren’t coming off their best game. They should have something to prove and the offense will flourish if they play like they do.

4. 60 Minutes: After a full week together in San Diego without any distractions, the Patriots should be a focused group. But against the never-dead Chargers, they’ll need a full game effort. Coming off a loss, you never expect a team to get over-confident, but they can’t warm up the plane and be too eager to get home even if they have a lead late in the fourth quarter. They must finish.

5. Win: This win would position the Patriots to get to the Super Bowl. It’s just that simple. They know the three teams left to face after this and all three are winnable games. The first step to hosting the AFC Championship is to beat the Chargers. The Patriots must know that is on the line Sunday and play like they know it.

Patriots vs. Packers All-22 Thoughts: Defense Edition

December 4, 2014 by Mike Dussault

Despite getting marched up and down the field on, the Pats brought a strong red zone defense and almost made enough plays to give Tom Brady a shot at the win.

Still, it was not enough, and the third down scrambles by Aaron Rodgers, along with the Chung/Ryan/Arrington/Dennard getting picked on, were what killed the Patriots.

Aaron Rodgers showed why he is the best QB in the game right now, making plays on the run like neither Brady nor Manning can do, while also picking apart the defense with a cold-blooded efficiency that seemed set on targeting anyone not named Browner/Revis from the get go.

Here’s what I saw on the All-22, defense edition.

Missed the first couple Lacy runs during the broadcast, but seeing them now it was just what we saw earlier this season when the run defense stunk – not getting off blocks. Hightower/Collins showing double A blitz on the first one certainly made it harder on them with less space to react. Collins got pinned on the second one along with Chris Jones.

Good aggression by Logan Ryan in the red zone, not biting on a double move and staying physical. He shows flashes still.

Can’t tell if he got a hand on the ball on the next play but it was good positioning by Ryan.

Alan Branch shows up in his snap of the game, holding the point of attack, shedding and making a tackle on Lace to force a third-and-long. He could really be a guy who makes a big impact here in the last part of the season. Still, Chris Jones continues to impress being used in a variety of techniques.

First third-down red-zone stop of the day as Rodgers targets Ryan for the third time on this drive. Jones rushes off the edge as Ninkovich drops into a spy role on Rodgers. Seems like Rodgers was more about targetting Ryan than he was going through his reads, just enough late pressure from Jones to prevent him from going to an open Quarless in the middle of the field.

Next drive, Ayers picks up a sack on second down. Not sure what the Packers were doing as Quarless holds as if to block Ayers then runs out into a route leaving Ayers with a clear shot that he finishes. Lacy slipped into the flat and was wide open, but Rodgers never saw him. But all for not as Browner gets one “those” penalties.

Patriots showing a fair amount of Cover 2 Man, then Chung charges into the box at the snap. Also plenty of Double A-Gap pressure being shown almost every down, whether Collins/Hightower come or not.

Adams breaks free on a broken play and Rodgers fires a perfect pass that goes for 33 yards. So hard to defend this kind of stuff and it’s what makes Rodgers so good. It’s where the defense needs a finisher on the defensive line, but even then these are the kind of plays great players can make even when the defense is pretty sound.

Rodgers goes back to Adams on a dig the next play, firing it into a tight window and almost getting Adams killed by Hightower. There’s a certain calmness to Rodgers and Adams at this point and I believe they knew full well this would be the gameplan, at least early. They’re isolating Adams on one side and just letting him work Ryan.

Rodgers scrambles for 17 on 2nd-and-18 after a holding call and these are the kind of plays that give you an ulcer. Starks and an OL breaking off into a screen pass route cleared Hightower from the middle of the field, opening up a ton of space.

3rd-and-1 and Lacy gets 4. Pats haven’t been good in these situations this year. Wilfork gets too far upfield opening a seam.

Rdogers once again targets Ryan, this time with a fade. Continues to be clear how much they’re targeting Ryan with their entire offensive gameplan.

Second third-down, red-zone stop of the game as Rodgers doesn’t have anyone open. Great coverage. No pressure.

Third possession for the Packers with the Pats down 6-0. After two attempts to get Starks involved they go back after Logan Ryan and connect for 45 yards. This play was discussed a couple different place this week as Ryan bites on the out, but gets burned when Adams turns it up. At this point you have to wonder why they’re not trying to get Ryan some help. At least Ryan had the speed to catch him. Rodgers didn’t even look at anyone else.

Now comes the 32 yard touchdown where there’s not much to say other than Rodgers blew right past Chung and an unpressured Rodgers threw the perfect pass to him. Rodgers’ pump fake might’ve helped a bit, but Chung had no chance.

Fourth possession for the Packers begins in the second quarter, with the Pack leading 13-7.Logan Ryan has been replaced and I’m sure Kyle Arrington was told to be ready for incoming bombs.

I continue to be impressed with Akeem Ayers and how solid he’s been in run defense. How did the Titans not have a use for this guy.

Rodgers hits Cobb for 33 yards on third down out of the backfield as Arrington gets caught up in the wash and Ninkovich tries in vain to run with a wide receiver. Again, great design by the Packers.

Pats really needed Easley in this game and he didn’t give them much of anything. Unfortunate. Seems like his knee hasn’t healed as quickly as we’d like.

Third third-down red-zone stop and the Pats finally make a play with Hightower getting the sack. Great disguise by Hightower who gave no indication he was coming.

1:05 left now and the Patriots are trailing just 16-14. I know this drive will make me sick, just horrible situational football to give up a touchdown here and we know it’s coming.

Browner is now on Adams with Revis on Nelson and Arrington on Cobb.

First problem is a 28 yard pass to Starks out of the backfield as Ninkovich actually does an okay job sticking with him, but it’s just a dead-on throw on the move from Rodgers. Good catch by Starks too.

Here it comes, :23 seconds left with the ball at the Pats 45. Tough play for Revis, but he could’ve gotten a hand on Nelson early. The problem as I see it is McCourty looking at Rodgers and taking one too many steps too far to his left. That was all Nelson needed with his speed and he’s gone. Gross.

Second Half

Packers open up in 12 personnel and the Pats counter with their base defense.

Rodgers scrambles for another first down, with Ninkovich seeming to overpursue from his spy role. Tough play there. Think that’s 3 times Rodgers has picked up a first down running on third down. Killers.

Great tackle-for-loss on Lacy by Hightower. He’s been one of the few playmakers in this one.

Chris Jones sacks Rodgers to force a third-and-long, but it’s a total coverage sack as Rodgers tries to scramble with no one open but can’t escape. Finally. If they had this kind of integrity all game it might’ve been a much different game.

Pats hold on third-and-17. Again Cobb gets the ball because he’s covered by Not-Revis/Browner aka Arrington.

Second possession of the second half with the Packers up 23-14 now.

Lacy cuts back for his first big gain since the first quarter. Ninkovich loses contain, looking a lot like his crappy game against the Chiefs.

Casillas playing the weak side in 4-3 regular.

And now the targeting of Dennard begins with Arrington out as Rodgers finds Adams (with a major push off) for 12 yards.

2nd-and-15 and Rodgers almost gets ready to run for another first down, but Dont’a Hightower is waiting in the middle. Finally. Great pressure by Collins to push back Lacy too. He’s gotten a lot more aggressive lately.

Third-and-20 and the Packers play it safe with a checkdown. Holy Hoodie they are punting! They are punting!

Fourth quarter now with the Packers up 23-21, 13:43 left.

Pats getting creative in crunch time with the LBs/DEs flipped. Got pressure out of it too as Jones bursts through the line at the snap.

Third-and-six, prime opportunity here but Rodgers finds Quarless with some good movement in the pocket. Quarless got a pretty good push off as well and Chung had no chance once again due to the size mismatch. This is the place championship teams need to make plays. The Pats held Easley and Hightower back in spy positions, avoiding the Rodgers scramble again. And Ayers did a pretty good job forcing Rodgers off the spot, but the Packers made the play.

Quick slant to Adams again, those just tore the Pats up. Dennard gets no jam.

Run defense is wearing out as Lacy gets gains of 5 then 17 two plays later. 1st-and-10 at the Pats’ 15.

Good downfield coverage saves the game forcing two-straight incompletes, the first of which Rodgers has for 12 seconds. Impressive for a defense that has just been okay in this one, playing sound, but not making a ton of plays.

Third-and-five with the game on the line and it’s the Packers who choke with Adams dropping a perfect touchdown pass. Pats brought the blitz this time too, but still, should’ve been a touchdown.

Final possession for the Packers and the Pats need a stop down five with only 2:40 to go.

After runs of 2 and 4 yards the game comes down to a third down for the game. Rodgers’ first reads are not there, but the Pats pressure cannot get to him to finish the play. He finds Cobb for the first down and the game is over.

This play sums it up. Nobody up front could finish. Three guys all getting blocked one-on-one. Need Chandler back.

Patriots vs. Packers All-22 Thoughts: Offense Edition

December 2, 2014 by Mike Dussault

Starting off with the offense this week because I never got a chance to go All-22 on them after the Lions game. Tedy Bruschi mentioned the gameplan called for more downfield passing in this one, so that’s the area I’ll keep an eye on because it sounds kind of crazy to decide the game against Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers is the time to put pressure on your OL.

First Half

Pats open in a 2-RB set with Bolden and Vereen, an instant surprise considering Bolden hasn’t had a carry in what seems like months. Always curious why the Pats pull stuff like this. Is it to instantly give the Packers something to think about? Or perhaps it’s as simple as Bolden has been practicing well.

Then on the next play they shift gears to a 6 OL with Gronk on a wing and Blount in the backfield power formation. This is such a Pats offense thing to do – testing out matchups, seeing what the Packers counter their groupings with. Tough run by Blount too, burrowing through the pile to get an extra 3 yards.

Pats sub in Vereen/Wright on the next play and the Packers counter with their nickel. That has run written all over it, yet Vereen only gets 2 yards. Results like this are partially why the Pats “got away from the run”.

Then comes the dreaded hurry-up run on third-and-2 to Blount that gets stuffed. Simply put the Packers were ready and their defensive line was too much for the Pats’ offensive line here. And we’re punting.

Next possession and the Pats open in the Vereen/Wright package again. Play action works on the LBs, and LaFell has separation but the CB closes quickly and breaks the pass up. Good recovery.

They stick with this grouping, but spread the field on the next play, sending Gronk out wide after keeping him in to block last play. He picks up five yards with the catch, but no YAC. Vereen might’ve been an interesting target here with Clay Matthews in space covering him.

On third down, same package, Brady finds Edelman but he’s tackled just short. Packers made more of these kind of plays. Nice job by Stork picking up Matthews one-on-one as he blitzes. Punting again…

Back to power for the third possession, as Cannon declares eligible with Blount in the game. Packers go back to their base. Cannon gets olayed by Peppers, who closes down and makes the tackle, but Solder got no push either.

Pats pull Cannon for Hooman and the Packers stay in base as Brady finds Gronk for 29 yards, their first big play of the day. Great protection here.

Vereen comes in, as Pats go to a Double Y with Gronk/Hooman to one side, Edelman/LaFell to the other. Packers go to nickel. Brady climbs the ladder to avoid the edge rushers and finds Hooman for his annual catch. Gronk took all the attention from him.

Pats bring in Bolden/Wright on the next play and Bolden picks up 12 yards on Just a ton of space and some actual YAC from Bolden.

Pats run the exact play again and Bolden takes it in for the score. Love when the Pats do that. Great pulling block by Wendell to make it happen.

Pats get the ball back with 5:54 remaining in the half, down 16-7.

They wanted to take a shot here, rolling with third tackle Cannon and Blount and then using play action. However Brady’s arm/ball is hit as he throws. Edelman wasn’t really open anyway.

After a nice gain of 12 yards to Tim Wright and an incompletion to Edelman, the Pats go to the WR screen to Edelman and pick up 17. I like those plays when used like this – occasionally. They haven’t gotten to overreliant on the screens this year, but I’d like to see more of them to Vereen.

After another play to Edelman that picked up 5, Brady finds Vereen with Matthews in coverage on him and it goes for 26. Was waiting for that matchup to get exploited.

Now comes the Power I with Develin leading the way for Blount, but it only picks up 5. Packers closed well at the second level, but the blocking up front for NE was good at the point of attack. Just couldn’t get that extra block to spring Blount on the second level.

Third-and-3 from the 13 at Brady finds Gronk on a square in from the outside. Gronk had been quiet on this drive until now but that’s his second catch running the square in route from the outside. So hard to stop him on that route for a cornerback.

Hate the 2nd-and-goal from the 7 call – a draw to Vereen. Not his game at all. By the 3 yard line there were 3 Packers waiting for him.

Comes down to a third-and-goal and Brady finds LaFell for the TD. Just a great route by LaFell and perfect throw by Brady, who looked to Gronk in the middle first, but he was triple covered.

Should’ve been just a two point game going into the half, but we’ll see why it wasn’t tomorrow in the defensive film breakdown…

Second Half

Is there a worse way to start off a second half than with a holding penalty and then burning a timeout two plays later? Slow starts have haunted this team in the past and though they’ve been better this year, it really puts the offense in a hole.

It seemed like the Pats WANTED to go max protect and take a shot to Edelman, but yeah, HOLDING!

The next play they switched to the Wright/Vereen package but Connolly was beaten soundly once again and Brady was nearly intercepted.

Oh and now they complete a pass but Edelman injures his ankle. I forgot how horrible this first possession was. Hard to be much worse in any regard.

Brady had Amendola on third down, but was on the move and couldn’t put the ball where it needed to be. Mostly on Wendell here as he gets beat. If Brady doesn’t have to scramble that’s probably a first down. Ugh…

Pats get the ball back after the missed GB field goal, down 23-14.

It’s back to the Double Y power game with Blount now, but just no seams opened up by Hooman and Solder and the backside pursuit swallows up Blount. The run has not been abandoned yet, but plays like this make you want to abandon it.

Gronk goes into the backfield for the first time I can remember and Brady finds him for a 10-yard gain as he beats Hawk in coverage. Interesting twist I didn’t notice before.

Another power grouping shot, this time to Gronk but it’s not even close.

After a failed draw to Vereen, it’s third-and-9. Packers rush three off the snap, with a fourth coming, but Peppers up the middle is too much for Connolly without help. Falls incomplete. Brady had Gronk, but felt more pressure than there was.

2:21 in the third left, Pats down 23-14 as they get the ball back after a punt *gasp* by the Packers.

Pats go spread and Brady finds LaFell but good tackling holds it to a 4 yard gain. If LaFell breaks that tackle he has 20 yards.

Spread again and here’s the shot to Dobson, who injures his hamstring as the ball falls incomplete. It’s the right throw for Brady, but Dobson got no separation.

Spread for a third-straight down as Edelman draws an illegal contact.

More good tackling from the Packers as LeFell gets just 5 yards on a WR screen on an island.

Blount powers for 13 out of the jumbo package, then for another 14 off the same play, but only because he can break tackles at the second level. His addition to the team was really needed. Why does he run so hard for us? Does he not do it for anyone else? And I don’t think these two plays constitute abandoning the run…

Touchdown to LaFell and what a throw and catch it was. Perfect back shoulder throw without putting it up like a fade. Pats within two and would get one more drive to take the lead…

After a field goal, the Pats get the ball back with 8:35 left, down five. This is prime Brady time.

Spread with Hooman/Bolden is an interesting package to start with, as the Packers counter with their base defense (probably by design from the Patriots). This means Gronk gets a DB covering him out wide. Brady finds him off the curl for 14 and the Pats are in business near their own 40.

Draw to Bolden against the Packers nickel loses yardage. Why is Bolden getting the ball in this situation? That run should’ve been abandoned, or at least gone to Vereen. Gotta keep the clock running though…

After a drop by Vereen, Edelman finds a hole in the zone and picks up 8 yards on third down, setting up a 4th-and-3 attempt at the 50.

Pats go spread, motioning Edelman from outside into the slot, where he gets a stack release with LaFell. Brady needed an extra moment and got it, with Edelman making a fantastic quick-adjustment catch. Packers sent 6 here, credit to the OL and Vereen for picking them up. The drive continues…

Back to the power run game with Blount, but no OL gets to the second level once again.

Another perfect throw picks up a first down to Gronk. Just so hard to stop. Pats at the 33 and closing in…

Blount peels off 12 yards and at this point I’m already wondering what the two-point conversion call will be for the three-point lead.

This where the drive stalls as Blount gets just one yard on the next play. On 2nd-and-9 Brady takes a shot to Gronk in the end zone, and he almost comes up with it. In retrospect, a more conservative play might’ve been better, as this went for everything and left them with a third-and-long.

Brady gets sacked for the first time on third down and that was it for the Patriots. It was just a four-man rush, but Solder was beaten cleanly. Brady seemed to think he had plenty of time as he waited for LaFell’s downfield route to develop. The safe play was to Gronk and he would’ve barreled to a first down.

It seems like there was definitely more of focus on trying to hit the deep balls in this one, but the problem was that they weren’t hitting them. How much was that by design and how much was it that the defense wasn’t showing a lot of multiple deep safety looks, I’m not sure.

The Packers are a sound and tough defense who made the Pats earn just about every yard. Not all defenses have the talent and discipline to play New England like that.

I don’t think the “getting away from the run” storyline holds water at all. They had two of their best runs of the day in the fourth quarter.

The only criticism in hindsight was trying to target the deep passes too much. It’s not what the Pats do best and on most of the plays where they looked deep, they had underneath guys open.