PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

2015

Best Patriots Game of 2015?

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTbUrySDe5s

Looking back on the 2015 season now that we have some separation, I have to go with the thrilling last-second victory over the Giants as my best Patriots game of 2015. After this game there wasn’t much else to get excited about. Yes, the playoff win over the Chiefs was a solid victory, especially after the ass-pounding they handed us in 2014, but nothing tops finally beating Eli and the Giants for the first time since 2007’s 16-0 game.

The 4th-and-10 conversion to Danny Amendola on the final drive was a Tom Brady masterpiece. Such focus and poise in the pocket on a must-get play. Amendola also had a huge 82-yard punt return that sparked the comeback. It felt good to tear the Giants’ hearts out with a last second win for a change. This time around Eli just left too much time on the clock, as the Pats have done for him the last three matchups, including both Super Bowls.

Unfortunately the game was not without it’s significant injury hits, as Julian Edelman would miss the rest of the regular season after this one, seven games, in which the Pats went 3-4. So in many ways this win was the high water point of the season.

This was also the first game without Dion Lewis and the ground game struggles that would haunt the Pats the rest of the season started to show. They’d finish with 23 carries for 77 yards, a 3.3 yards-per-rush average.

Other 2015 contenders include the opening Thursday win over the Steelers, an tougher-than-expected battle with the Colts (who can forget their punt play?), and pounding an upstart Dolphins team. Not a lot of unforgettable games last year, but 2016 should change that with a beast of schedule.

Best Patriots Game of 2015

 

2015 Patriots Highlight Video For Your Hump Day

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I gotta be honest, I didn’t love this season. Of course there were plenty of highlight moments, mostly by Gronk and Dion Lewis, and seeing this young homegrown defense really take a significant step forward was exciting to see but were there really any epic, unforgettable games outside of finally getting a win over the Giants? Beating the Colts was nice and a better game than many expected, and torching Rex in Buffalo Week 2 was fun. But once the injuries started in Dallas Week 5 each week became about hanging on long enough to get healthy.

Thinking back I’m not sure I remember much of anything about Jags, Titans, Redskins or Texans games. Still, the 2015 Pats did what they always do, fight to the end with everything they had. It was just one of those seasons where it didn’t quite hit epic mode very often.

Pats Posits: Bring on the Chiefs!

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Still trying to wrap my head around the Bengals meltdown last night. Truth be told my seven-year-old is just starting to get into football and he’s sparked to the Bengals because, well, he likes tigers. I let him stay up last night to watch the end of the game and it was fun to see him get into it, until I had to explain to him what “implosion” means. Welcome to the pain of rooting for a football team, son, and no, you can’t root for the Bengals any more.

As I’ve said many times before the best wins are the ones you’ve accepted you’re probably going to lose, but as last night proved the worst losses are ones where you think you’re going to win. Obviously that kind of meltdown is nothing we’ll ever see in New England, and the result is now the Pats get the Chiefs.

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Other than the Giants game this year, there weren’t many historical context games for the Patriots. No Brady-Peyton game. The division was never really in question. The Colts weren’t good. The season-opener didn’t feel historical, more workman like. Who cares about the Titans and Jaguars and Redskins, etc? Meh. It was a “just get through it” kind of a season.

But now here come the Chiefs, the team who kicked our ass last year and thus dubbed the game that was the major turning point in the 2014 Pats’ season. Everyone wrote Brady and the Pats’ dynasty obituary after that one, only to see them rise from the ashes to get Super Bowl number four.

So yes, the Pats owe this team one, and it’s a team that has given them problems over the years outside of a primetime beatdown in Foxboro in 2011, 34-3. So that makes things a lot more intriguing for one of the only times this season.

Outside of that we have an ugly loss at Arrowhead in 2005, the tragic season opener in 2008 that needs no elaboration, and last year’s pummeling. So yes, the Chiefs have been an underrated thorn in Brady and Belichick’s side and this game will certainly have some historical context – either the Pats will “avenge” their loss last year, or Andy Reid/Alex Smith will cement their spot as being underrated Patriots kryptonite.

If Jeremy Maclin is out it’s a huge blow to the Chiefs and allows the Patriots to focus fully on Travis Kelce, the running game, and Alex Smith’s array of bootlegs and keepers. The Chiefs’ offensive philosophy matches up well with the Patriots’ defense when they play conservatively and that’s why they could still cause problems even without Maclin.

Simply put, if the Pats defense are in full Bend-Don’t-Break mode (and not causing disruption up front or getting turnovers) the Chiefs will move the ball with their quick passes and balance. So on defense, aggression will be key. By manning up their less-than-scary outside threats with our cornerbacks, it should allow our front seven to get after it.

The hard part is going to be for the Patriots’ offensive line dealing with the Chiefs front. The struggles there this season are well-documented and they were a mess the last two games, and there isn’t a better edge combo that Houston and Hali.

Rookie corner Marcus Peters could be on Julia Edelman, a tough assignment for the receiver playing his first game in two months. Getting open quick will be a huge key across the board for the Pats’ offense. That hasn’t been happening in recent weeks and that’s why the Pats’ offense has looked like shit.

The Chiefs will make the Patriots earn this win, and they’ll be every bit the challenge the Ravens were in the divisional round. The Chiefs will come in confident and give the Pats their best shot. What else would you expect from a team that hasn’t lost since mid-October?

I was guilty of hoping the Bengals pulled out last night’s game to give the Pats the easiest road, but the easiest road isn’t always the most entertaining or meaningful. Beating the Chiefs would certainly be more meaningful than putting Cinci out of their misery would’ve been. More frustrating is that the Broncos get a Steelers team with an injured Big Ben and maybe no Antonio Brown, but with Peyton Manning, you never know.

In a season with plenty of unexciting matchups, 2015 suddenly got extremely interesting. Two other potential AFC Championship matchups would loom – at Denver or vs. Pittsburgh and both would bring plenty of historical context and meaning. But getting through Kansas City won’t be the playoff walk in the park recent post season matchups like Indy, Houston and even Denver circa 2011 were.

Layers and history are what make games truly more fun even if this might be the scariest first round opponent the Pats could’ve gotten. It will be a fun week of hype and we’ll finally see who the 2015 Patriots are against a team that can challenge all their weaknesses.

2015 Patriots Stat Roundup

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One of the things that I think gives this blog a unique perspective is the long-term stats that I focus on. This time of year, when the 2015 Patriots’ regular season is in the books, I love seeing how this team stacked up against the rest of Belichick’s teams.

Despite an incredible amount of injuries this season, the Patriots didn’t drop off a whole heck of a lot from last year’s Super Bowl team. They certainly had an easier regular season schedule, but despite all the key departures of last offseason plenty of guys stepped up and that bodes extremely well for the direction of the franchise.

Let’s start with the DVOA of the offense, defense and special teams.

As you can see, this year’s team and last year’s we almost identical as far as the efficiency is concerned. One major place the Pats had significant improvement on the defensive side of the ball was:

It shouldn’t be surprising that the season Belichick finally got a legit third defensive end (Jabaal Sheard) and had a pure interior rusher (Dominique Easley) for most of the season, that the third down numbers were top 10.

Here’s a closer look at how the Pats did against individual receivers:

We can’t really say these rankings reflect directly on Butler or Ryan as they weren’t always on specific threats. 

The real concern I have, and it’s reflected here, is at the slot corner position where Leonard Johnson had a huge target on his back the last two games. This also follows how teams generally beat the Belichick philosophy of taking away what you do best. That results in guys like David Tyree or Chris Matthews (SB49) having big games. That could be where the playoff games are won or lost if Johnson (or Justin Coleman) isn’t up to the challenge.

Finally we look at the “Bend Don’t Break” chart:

Lots of interesting stuff happening here, starting with the Yards-per-Drive taking a major step forward, while Turnovers-per-Drive dropped to their worst rate in a decade.

The Patriots have had fewer interceptions the last five years in a row since 2010: 25-23-20-17-16-12. Yet the defense has gotten better in each of those years generally. What gives? Why would getting less turnovers and specifically interceptions be the sign of a better defense?

I relate it to the shift away from zone defense to more man coverage. The Pats D of the early ‘10s didn’t have much talent, so instead they played conservative zone defense, waiting to break on poorly thrown balls or deliver big downhill hits that forced fumbles.

Now, the secondary is in man coverage, so instead of sitting back and waiting to pounce, they’re running around tracking their receivers. It’s a lot easier to drop into zone then break on the pass than it is to be running stride-for-stride with a receiver, turn around, find the ball and pick it off.

All of this points to positive trends with the Patriots defense and I give the front seven a lot of credit. They’re as deep and talented now as they were during the first three Super Bowls, and good news, everyone of importance comes back next year.