A Closer Look at Patriots’ Advanced Defensive Stats

Stats are for losers, right? Far be it from me to disagree with BB, but stats can give us a bigger picture. I always wait until four gams into the season before I jump into the stats. Anything before that is just simply too small a sample size.

As most of you know, the Patriots defense has been my long term pet project here on the blog. When you line up the 2016 stats and compare them to recent years it becomes even more clear that while the Patriots defense is good at preventing points, they’ve been pretty terrible at everything else.

I know there are plenty out there banging the “points allowed are all that matter,” but I disagree. Football is a complimentary game. Points allowed is certainly an important stat and the one at the bottom line, but the rest of the stats paint the picture of a defense that isn’t forcing turnovers, isn’t getting off the field and allowing far too long opponent possessions. That isn’t holding up their end of the bargain with the offense and special teams.

That said, it’s four games in. With Tom Brady back we can expect far more out of the offense going forward. That should help the defense. But still, every time in the first four games the Patriots have needed the defense to step up, they have failed to do so.

Let’s hope that changes in the coming weeks.

I love Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings because they’re weighted for situation and opponent. They tell you far more than a simple stat like “yards allowed” does. So here’s how 2016 has stacked up in the Belichick run so far.

What had us most excited for this season was the two year progression in pass defense. Yes, this was a top-10 pass defense in 2015, and now, they’ve dropped to 26th. Right now, that’s the third-worst pass defense DVOA of the Belichick era.

You often hear the Patriots play a bend-don’t-break style of defense. This equates to taking away big plays, playing sound coverage and forcing teams into turnovers or stopping them in the red zone. I’ve put together this long-range chart to quantify the bend-don’t-break.

So yes, in terms of points-per-drive the Patriots are excellent, but the regression in the other measures, especially on the “bend” side are significant. 2015 was the least bend-don’t-break-y year since 2007. Again, that gave us hope, but so far in 2016 they’re bending way too much again.

Another thing to point out is how the turnovers have dried up in recent years. I relate this to the shift to primarily man-to-man defense. The untalented 2010-2012 Patriots defense primarily played zone and were torn apart because of it. But they excelled in jumping routes and forcing turnovers and that saved them. Those “bend” numbers from 2010 and 2011 are atrocious, yet in both seasons the Patriots had the best record in the AFC, making the Super Bowl in 2011.

Next comes my last two favorite defensive measurements, 3rd down defense and red zone defense. As you can see, both numbers have fallen off a cliff, especially 3rd down where the Patriots have gone from 10th to 30th.

I broke down the 3rd downs and found that on 3rd-and-6+ yards the Patriots are 20th. On 3rd-and-5-or-less they’re 25th.

So it’s both the long distance and short distance that are a problem.

Overall, the pass rush is perhaps the primary cause for concern. I know sacks are an overrated statistic, but I’ve still looked at 40 sacks in a season as a benchmark for the Patriots. Right now the Patriots are tied for 16th with eight sacks which projects out to 32 sacks on the season. It’s not good enough and there is far too much talent in the front seven for them to be this ineffective.

Rob Ninkovich‘s return this week should provide a boost, not only for his ability on the field, but his leadership and experience within the Pats’ system. That was sorely lacking last week against the Bills as the Patriots looked like they were on their heels for much of the game and unsure how to execute the gameplan. Ninkovich will also provide a chance to rest Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard and keep them fresh a little more. And hopefully he doesn’t eat too much in Trey Flowers‘ snaps, he’s been the most promising young player on the defense so far.

The “Bend-Don’t-Break” philosophy will always be present, but the Patriots defensive performances through four games are below even the loose standards we often allow them. It all starts on third down. They must get off the field. Once they do that, the rest of the stats will fall into line. There’s still plenty of time to get things on track.