5 Patriots Standout Stats

As I updated everything on the big Pats stat page I keep, it occurred to me that most of the important numbers I track supported what I thought I saw with my eyes.

This wasn’t a dominant offensive team, but it is an underrated defensive one. Inconsistencies on special teams also fed into what set this edition of the BB/TB Pats apart.

Let’s dive into five key stats that defined the inconsistent-but-hopefully-peaking 2018 Patriots.

1. Offense: 13th on Third Down, 15th in Red Zone

The dominant offenses of the mid-dynasty always were lights out on third down. From 2004-2012 they were never lower than 8th. They were top-five four times in that stretch, including 2007 (2nd), 2010 (2nd) and 2012 (1st) the holy trinity of unstoppable Patriots offenses.

This is the third time they’ve been outside the top 10 since 2013, including the 2013 and 2015 seasons, both of which ended on the road in the AFC Championship.

The red zone drop could largely be attributed to Rob Gronkowski‘s drop in end zone production, he had just three TDs this year, down from eight last year. This is the first time since 2013 the Pats offense dropped out of the top 10 in the red zone.

The parallels to 2013 are pretty clear, this was another start over season in many ways. They couldn’t lean on Edelman and Gronk early and outside of Josh Gordon they didn’t get much other production through the air. The ground game kept things going. Now that we’re in the playoffs it’s critical to finish drives with touchdowns and Gronk should contribute, especially if he’s potentially thinking this is the last hurrah.

2. Best Bend-Don’t-Break Since 2007

They flirted with it all year and they ended strong. The Patriots defense didn’t bend and didn’t break much this season. Despite being overall considered average by Football Outsider’s DVOA metric, they ranked in the top 10 of all four areas in my Bend Don’t Break stat.

This is the first time it’s happened since 2007. For a D that had three areas in the red last season, including 32nd and 31st in yards/drive and plays/drive, they came a long way.

3. 28 Takeaways

Up from just 19 last season, the Patriots ballhawking ways re-emerged this season, forcing multiple turnovers in 11 games this season. The 2010 and 2011 teams lived off turnovers and it allowed them to get by while rebuilding on the fly.

This 2018 team doesn’t have to depend on takeaways like those teams did, they’re too talented and experienced now. I think that’s why I don’t think this team is destined to fall apart in the divisional round if the opponent plays a perfect game. They forced just three turnovers in four losses.

4. 28th Kickoffs

The special teams dropped in DVOA to 16th in the league, their lowest ranking since 2004. This was fueled in large part by having the worst ranked kickoff team in the NFL.

The rest of the special teams were around average in punt, punt returns, they were 5th in kickoff return. With new kickoff rules in 2018, the Pats didn’t quite figure them out.

5. Points Per Game

The most important stat of all, how many points do you score vs how many do you give up. The offense fell to their lowest level since 2009, still good enough for 4th in the league. It grows clearer how special the 2007-2012 offenses were. Amazing that none won a Super Bowl.

Defensively they allowed over 20 points a game for the first time since 2013. They were top-10 for the 15th time in 18 seasons.

Don’t let the drop in points fool us. This Patriots team has likely been saving a little something for January, especially as far as Cordarrelle Patterson goes. This is an offense that is peaking, with all the pieces they started the season with on the field.

Defensively they’re as solid as anyone left in the playoff field. If they get takeaways they’ll be near unbeatable.