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Film Review: It’s All There for Pats

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I know most of us came out of Friday’s preseason game with a bland taste in our mouths but after reviewing the film of the game, I’m feeling pretty good actually. That’s usually the case, especially in games that get overreacted to. My favorite example being the 2014 Chiefs blowout, which showed up in film review as just a game of bad fundamentals, something that is often quickly fixed.

It’s clear who the 2018 Patriots are now. And while there are still some questions toward the bottom of the roster, the top lines of the offense, defense and special teams have taken shape. Yes, even without adding another huge name wide receiver.

It’s impossible to know how the health of the team will hold up. So far so good. If they stay healthy no one can tell me this isn’t a Super Bowl roster. As always things will remain a work in progress but all the elements are there. Now it’s just a matter of bringing them all together under an actual gameplan and executing. There will be steps forward and steps back, but the aim of this team is the same as it’s ever been under Bill Belichick.

Here’s what jumped out in the film review against the Panthers.

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Pats Posits: Sticking With the Posit(ives) in a Flat Preseason Loss

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The Patriots’ 25-14 loss at the hands of the Carolina Panthers in Week Three of the preseason left plenty to feel blah about. The offense sputtered for most of the night. The defense looked far more like the pressureless bend-don’t-break that Patriots fans hoped went with Matt Patricia to Detroit rather than the attacking new defense producing constant pressure that they thought they had after last week under Brian Flores.

Overall, there just wasn’t a whole lot to get excited about but if you’re watching a preseason game to get you excited about the regular season you have been asleep for most of the Augusts of the last two decades. There were encouraging signs though there’s no question this team still has a long way to go, as they always do, even when they look dominant in the preseason.

As much as Week Three as billed as the “dress rehearsal” it’s still preseason and there’s no reason to overreact. Let’s blast off a bunch of Posits before I jump into taking a second look at the game.

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Patriots Gameplan: Preseason Week 3 vs. Carolina Panthers

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I swear to Hoodie, I’m not going to call week three of the preseason a “dress rehearsal” but it’s really the last time we’re going to get anything much of interest before the annual scrubfest against the Giants. This will be the last time we see anyone important before the bullets are real against the Texans, and for that reason, there will be plenty to react to from tonight’s game.

A good place to start would be these five lingering questions, where you can swap in Eric Decker for Kenny Britt. If he remembers how to catch he’s got to be close to a roster lock. If he’s not, you know he fell off a cliff. There’s no question all eyes will be on the receivers, especially Phillip Dorsett. If he busts a big play, things will look on track. Better than a big play, I’d rather a tough catch, but that won’t get the kind of attention a long gain would.

As has been the case in the preseason I’m diverting from the usual gameplan because, well, preseason games are minimally gameplanned. All they want to do is avoid bad plays that have no chance for success. Otherwise, it’s vanilla ice cream on both sides of the ball. However last week showed a bit of an exception with de facto defensive coordinator Brian Flores sending more blitzes than I can recall seeing in the preseason.

This week there will be even more of a focus on the defense because Cam Newton is the kind of quarterback that the Patriots don’t blitz. He’s also the kind that gave them fits last year, so this first half at least should be an excellent test for the new front.

More on that and everything else I’ll be watching in the final dress re… meaningless audition of the summer.

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On Britt, Dez and the Remaining Patriots Receivers

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As you’ve heard by now the Pats released Kenny Britt on Wednesday, just as most of the attention was turning toward him as the x-factor in the receiver battle. I know I was focusing fully on him as recently as yesterday morning and now here we are, a third lost receiver this summer in addition to the departures of Danny Amendola and Brandin Cooks in the offseason.

Early in camp I thought the hot takes about the receiver situation was overblown and to some extent I still do, but it’s still hard to fathom losing five receivers off the roster in seven months, even if the writing was on the wall with Amendola and Cooks was more a luxury than someone to lean upon. So what are the Pats left with? Julian Edelman, who is somehow being very much underappreciated because he’s coming off an injury and will miss the first four games. He’s not dead. He’s still the all-time leading post-season receiver and one of Tom Brady‘s most trusted targets, but for some reason that’s mostly getting swept under the rug these days.

Then there’s Chris Hogan, who led the league in yards-per-catch two seasons ago and still topped his catch total in 2017 despite missing multiple games to injury. Between Edelman and Hogan there’s a very solid base to start from, so if you’re throwing yourself off the bridge now I’m not sure how you lived through 2006 or 2013.

Remember 2013? Wes Welker and Deion Branch left, Aaron Hernandez was released after being arrested and Brady’s weaponz went back to ground zero. The talking points that offseason? Edelman hadn’t done anything since his rookie year four years earlier. Danny Amendola was too fragile. After them it was undrafted Kenbrell Thompkins and second-round pick Aaron Dobson. Josh Boyce and Austin Collie made guest appearances and that was it.

The result? The Pats offense fell from 1st overall in 2012 to… 4th overall. They were third in points and 10th in yards, en route to a 12-4 record. Edelman broke 100 catches/1,000 yards.

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Lingering Questions For Patriots Preseason Week 3

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Clarity comes quickly when training camp opens. We instantly get at least a partial picture of who’s hurt, who’s in the mix for playing significant roles on offense, defense and, most often ignored, special teams. Now we’re closing in on a month of practices with two games already in the bag, but there remain some lingering questions that could have significant implications for the 2018 Pats.

Let’s run them down as we get ready for a week three preseason game in Carolina that should provide even more of that clarity.

  1. Who’s returning punts weeks 1-4? Even after Julian Edelman returns from suspension I don’t think anyone wants to use him full time returning punts when he’s so critical to the offense. They were lucky to get by doing it with Danny Amendola last year. Thus far we’ve seen Riley McCarron as the primary punt returner and he’s done little to prove he’s anything more than a guy who can catch punts and get tackled. The favorite could be Cyrus Jones, but with a logjam at cornerback, he’s got a lot of ground to make up. Could McCarron or Jones win a roster spot solely to return punts? Just one solid return against the Panthers could make the case.
  2. Can Marcus Cannon stay healthy? I hate asking if anyone can stay healthy because this is football and a career can end in one snap due to one weird play. But Cannon missed the last nine games and playoffs last year and has been MIA at camp for a couple weeks now. I do love the idea of what the Brown-Thuney-Andrews-Mason-Cannon line can do, but I’m starting to wonder if and when we’ll actually see that group. LaAdrian Waddle is once again a guy to lean on and Ulrick John, the best of the rest, could be making a roster push.
  3. Dorsett, Britt or Decker? Anyone? We know that when the games get meaningful that a core of Edelman, Chris Hogan, Rob Gronkowski and James White is going to be very hard to stop. Mix in some Cordarrelle Patterson with gimmicky stuff and the Pats have a good core that tops most teams in the NFL. But the true ceiling of the offense, especially in the first month will depend on one of the Dorsett, Britt or Decker trio stepping up and making plays. Thus far all three have been quiet (or injured in the case of Britt) and time is running out. I kn5ow Dorsett’s going to get a ton of snaps, but I remain unconvinced he’s going to be a game-changer. Britt’s the better outside fit for the offense in my view and Decker is much needed in the slot. These last two games will tell us a lot about the direction of the offense.
  4. Roberts vs Bentley? Both Elandon Roberts and Ja’whaun Bentley are going to play this season, but whether Roberts makes a third-year leap or Bentley translates his preseason play to the regular season will determine if the Patriots have solved their middle field athleticism problems. The thinking man’s analysis of how to attack the Pats centers on the middle linebacker spot, a position Mike Lombardi wrote defines the speed of a defense. Last year, they were undermanned and slow and got exposed by the Eagles.
  5. Second-Year Defenders Lead the Way? Last season the pass rush was devastated, losing Rob Ninkovich, Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard. Injuries didn’t help and forced Dietrich Wise and Adam Butler into significant roles. Now, with Derek Rivers back and looking like the top pick he was, these second-year players must ignite the pass rush. Potentially aided by a more aggressive attack under Brian Flores, along with the disruptive Adrian Clayborn and contract-year Trey Flowers, this is the group that must get after opposing quarterbacks. How well they do will have a huge impact on how good this defense is for this year and into the future.

Patriots 53-Man Roster Projection 3.0

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With two weeks down in the preseason it’s time to take another stab at a 53-man roster projection. Changes from the last projection are noted below.

QB (2) T.Brady, B.Hoyer – No change.

RB (5) J.White, J.Hill, R.Burkhead, S.Michel, J.Develin – No change.

WR (5) C.Hogan, P.Dorsett, C.Patterson, K.Britt, M.Slater – No change. Still believing that Britt emerges and becomes a factor. Well, praying for it.

TE (3) R.Gronkowski, D.Allen, J.Hollister – No change. Solid group, excited to see Hollister get some real game action.

C (1) D.Andrews
G (3) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras
T (3) T.Brown, M.Cannon, L.Waddle – Wynn is out and I didn’t replace him with Croston as many are doing. He’s still PS eligible and I needed the spot.

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Patriots Pending Free Agent Top 10 Power Rankings

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As the 2018 Patriots take shape, there are a number of players who will be entering the final years of their contracts. Not everyone can be re-signed, as Patriots fans are all too familiar, but who should take priority?

Let’s do a quick power ranking of those who either need new deals or will be on other teams in 2019.

  1. Trey Flowers — Flowers has been battling injuries for much of camp though it doesn’t appear to be anything that will keep him out of the regular season. Still, it’s not the best start for a defensive end looking to get paid as a premium position. The emergence of Derek Rivers would soften the blow if Flowers were to leave, but strong technical players like him are hard to find and defensive end depth is critical as we saw last year. It still appears very much a toss up if the Patriots will pay Flowers top dollar, or turn things over to the trio of Rivers, Dietrich Wise and Adrian Clayborn.
  2. Trent Brown — It’s hard to put Brown second overall when he hasn’t played a single regular season snap but so far he’s been exactly what the Patriots needed at left tackle, a critical position. Do they really want to have to find another left tackle next offseason? Especially considering that Isaiah Wynn’s future is still murky after being lost for the season. It might be smart for the Patriots to spring as soon as possible before every other team in the league sees that he can be a starting left tackle.
  3. Chris Hogan — There were reports that the Pats and Hogan were talking a new deal, which is a good sign considering he’s really the most reliable receiver on the team right now. Most useful is his versatility — he can play inside or out, and while he might not have the quickness of Edelman or the deep speed of Dorsett, Hogan is the most well-rounded and should have a great season if he can stay on the field. He led the league in yards-per-reception in 2016 and despite missing seven games in 2017 he had just four fewer catches and still topped his touchdown total, going fro four to five.
  4. Danny Shelton — So far Shelton has been the most immovable object on the Patriots’ defensive front and looks poised to live up to his first-round billing. Like Trent Brown, it might be premature to put him this high, but with Malcolm Brown’s apparent regression, defensive tackle could be a critical need next offseason. Players like Shelton are impossible to find and if he does play like his draft status I’d move him all the way up into the top three, that’s how critical a player like him is to the defense.
  5. Shaq Mason — Many might argue that Mason should be higher but the reality is that right guard is probably the easiest position on a football team to fill and as much as he’s an athletic specimen and I’d love to keep him, replacing him wouldn’t be nearly as tough as replacing those above him who are unique players at difficult positions to fill.
  6. Stephen Gostkowski — Gost is still one of the best kickers in the game but you just never know when his age and value will hit that crossroads where Belichick feels okay turning the page on him. He had his third-best FG percentage in 2017 and was perfect 4-4 beyond 50 yards. The Pats were lucky when they let Adam Vinatieri walk and turned things over to the rookie Gostkowski and it all went perfectly. Could they get that lucky again?
  7. Eric Rowe — I don’t think anyone is on the Rowe bandwagon even though he’s the most tenured Pats corner and was far better than anyone wants to admit in the Super Bowl. He gives the Pats a tall corner for matchups and is a valuable piece in the secondary. But with both him and Jason McCourty due to hit free agency the Pats might want to make a move to secure at least one of them and so far Rowe looks like the de facto number two corner behind Stephon Gilmore
  8. Malcom Brown — Don’t give up on Brown yet, but it’s not a good sign when the team declines your fifth year option. That likely means they don’t plan on paying you with a big contract. He’ll need his best season as a pro and even then he likely won’t be back.
  9. Phillip Dorsett — I haven’t been all that impressed with Dorsett yet and he’s got a long way to go to earn another contract with the team in my eyes. Still, with Edelman getting older, the cupboard is pretty bare aside from Hogan. I’m fascinated to see how his season unfolds.
  10. Jeremy Hill — An honorable mention here, because this is based on my speculation that Hill will be a featured back at least for the early part of this season and might even be a better piece that Rex Burkhead who just returned from a two-week injury.  Hill would be affordable and excited for a second contract with the team. That spells the Patriots’ favorite word — value.

Other Notable Free Agents

  • Ryan Allen – Could the team be looking to groom Corey Bojorquez behind the scenes this year to take over for Allen next year?
  • Jordan Richards – Imagine what will happen if he gets a new deal over those guys up top?
  • Cordarrelle Patterson – Could be a fun weapon for the offense this year but will he just use the Pats to get a bigger paycheck elsewhere next year? He’s a real wild card and will be somewhat of a luxury this year.
  • LaAdrian Waddle — Has been a life saver with so many recent tackle injuries.