PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

Forget Brady vs. Rivers, It’s RBs vs RBs

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I jumped back and watched last year’s Patriots defeat of the Chargers and was left thinking that if you’re betting on Super Bowl 53 and the playoffs this one might simply boil down to which stable of running backs has the better game.

While the 2018 Patriots offense is most effective with Sony Michel having early-down success, running him right into the teeth of the Chargers defense isn’t probably the smartest attack. Last year, Dion Lewis and Mike Gillislee combined for 78 yards on the ground. But it was Rex Burkhead and James White‘s combined 12 catches for 153 yards that gave the Chargers the most problems.

Here’s some more great info from Kevin Duffy of the Boston Herald:

The Chargers backfield trio of Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson combined for 138 targets this season, or 27.2 percent of Rivers’ throws. Oddly enough, Brady looked for James White, Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel on 27.7 percent of his passes, too. That’s a higher target share than Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram received in New Orleans.

What makes the dynamic especially intriguing: As prolific as Gordon and Ekeler can be in the passing game, the Chargers defense is abysmal at containing pass-catchers out of the backfield. They allowed a league-worst 973 receiving yards to running backs. According to Pro Football Reference, it’s the second-highest total allowed by a defense in the past decade. Only the 2015 Rams surrendered more receiving yards to running backs.

For the Patriots’ defense it’s clear that everything will key off of Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen. Those are the two pieces that Bill Belichick will do his best to take away.

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Pats Posits: New Chargers Chapter

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In recent years, the Pats’ playoff games, especially in the early rounds lacked a certain excitement that was present in the early years of the dynasty. Epic matchups in 2001 (Raiders/Tuck Rule), 2003 (Titans) and 2004 (Colts) gave way to snoozers against the Jaguars, Tebow Broncos and the Texans.

When was the last divisional round that really made you sweat? Surely not Marcus Mariota and the Titans last year. No, you’d have to go back to 2014 against the Ravens, a team that was just eliminated by the now Los Angeles Chargers that the Pats will face this Sunday. And really, that’s been the most anticipated matchup since 2004.

At this point in the run, it’s far more entertaining to face teams that the Pats have history with. Teams that we can even talk ourselves into them losing to, and that’s what they’ll get with the Chargers. I’m excited to see one of the old guard coming to town.

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A Quick Look Ahead Patriots 2019 Offseason

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There’s no better weekend than wild card weekend when you’re on the bye week. There’s wall-to-wall playoff football and no stress if you’re a Patriots fan.

It’s easy to overreact to how the season ends so now’s a good time to take a quick glance ahead at the storylines we’ll turn the page to as soon as we know the final fate of the 2018 Pats.

Here are the six areas to get a jump on:

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5 Patriots Standout Stats

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As I updated everything on the big Pats stat page I keep, it occurred to me that most of the important numbers I track supported what I thought I saw with my eyes.

This wasn’t a dominant offensive team, but it is an underrated defensive one. Inconsistencies on special teams also fed into what set this edition of the BB/TB Pats apart.

Let’s dive into five key stats that defined the inconsistent-but-hopefully-peaking 2018 Patriots.

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Patriots 2018 Season Snap Counts: Nobody Died

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If nothing else, the NFL season depends on attrition. Just a key injury to a player or two can completely derail the best-laid offseason plans. It happened in the first quarter of the first game of the 2008 Patriots’ season. That’s why you shouldn’t bet on Super Bowl 53 in June.

These days, all that really matters is if Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, Dont’a Hightower and Rob Gronkowski make it to January. Despite any regular season ups and downs these guys have always shown up when the lights are brightest. And they will always give the Patriots a fighting chance in any game, even in, gasp, Kansas City.

Here we are on the playoff bye week and guess what, nobody died. Outside of the disappointing loss of Ja’whaun Bentley and a few guys taking a game off here and there, the 2018 Patriots have remained remarkably healthy and that is everything to their Super Bowl chances.

They’ve got their bumps and bruises for sure, as does every team, but with every key veteran piece accounted for the Pats should still have their best football in front of them.

Here’s a breakdown of who played the most, it’s no surprise the Pats once again gained a first round bye.

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Pats Posits: Here We Go Again

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The Patriots finished off their 2018 with perhaps their most complete game of the season. Most importantly, the Pats survived the 2018 campaign with the key pieces intact.

Against the Jets, the offense spread the ball around and had success both on the ground and through the air. Despite reports of his decline, Tom Brady looked every bit like his same old self.

The defense once again put together a strong home performance. The continued playmaking of Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy, along with shutdown corner Stephon Gilmore, have rounded this into one of the more underrated of Belichick’s defenses.

They’ve earned the right to get a bye and a home game. After that, we’ll just have to see. A lot can happen over the next two weekends. Maybe they will have to prove themselves on the road, or maybe not.

Let’s dive in with a bunch of travel-delayed Posits!

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 17 vs New York Jets

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The Patriots wrap up their regular season on Sunday, hosting the Jets. It’s pretty simple, if the Pats win they lock up the second seed. Yeah, maybe they could also get as high as the top seed but it’s more likely that the Chiefs will hold serve at home against the Raiders, securing the top spot.

I’ve been on vacation this week in California, and I’m most looking forward to my favorite thing about the Pacific Time Zone — 10am football starts. The break comes at a good time because I feel like I have a pretty good handle on who the 2018 Patriots are and how the next month will play out. It’s nice to just get out of the media cycle and take in that we’re on the verge of another BB/TB playoff run and one with lowered expectations.

It’s impossible to separate each season into its own separate headspace. Inevitably, Tom Brady of 2018 must be compared to Tom Brady of years past, just as the entire team is. The ticking clock of decline has everyone waiting with baited breath for the easiest and epic final chapter of the Belichick-Brady Dynasty. The next month will be fascinating as the 2018 team writes its fate.

Here’s the gameplan to finish off a tumultuous regular season.

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