PatsPropaganda

Stay in the AFC East.

There’s one unknown with him as I see it – how injured was he BEFORE the final preseason game. Because up until that point he didn’t seem like was fighting a potential season-ending injury. And usually, if you’re a veteran and you’re playing the entire final preseason game, it’s not a good sign.

But maybe it was some kind of injury that was lingering and he was trying to play through it and now he’s healthy and will have some burst back.

From camp reports last summer it just didn’t sound like he could run anymore. Arizona was already pulling him off the field in 2012 in passing situations, seems like a sign.

But maybe most important is asking where does he fit into the defense now? The only potential role I see is as the dime linebacker, but I think Jamie Collins is a far better option there.

Where else does Wilson fit? I don’t really see it. He’s not starting at strong safety over Gregory or else teams will expose him in coverage all day long.

I know we’d all like that intimidating strong safety to replace Gregory, but I don’t think Wilson is that guy any more. There will be some options in the draft there, that seems most likely to me. They’d replace Tavon Wilson on the depth chart and special teams with McCourty/Gregory/Harmon being the primary safety rotation for 2014.

My response might surprise some people but I don’t think they’re really comparable. The Pats were a perfect storm around Brady and with their schedule. The defense was on its last legs, but they still had a good front seven. They feasted on the weak AFC and NFC West divisions as well. They were still a good team, they just couldn’t beat the elite teams in the AFC (Pittsburgh/San Diego/Indy) and of course they got the Wildcat run all over them.

The Colts not only had Manning go down but their weapons and offensive line were also in shambles. They had the AFC North and NFC South as well, two of the best divisions at the time. I wouldn’t have thought Cassel was much better than Orlovsky/Painter/etc. going into 2008, but clearly he was pretty well prepared and the Pats knew how to play to his strengths. Moss/Welker and a veteran offensive line certainly helped too.

I don’t think the Pats’ collapse would’ve been quite as bad as 2-14 in that situation, but take away Welker and a couple of their offensive linemen along with Brady in 2008 and have them play two of the better divisions and they would’ve been a lot closer to .500 than 11-5.

Despite the Pats being able to change up their offensive attack week to week, I think the plan to stop them is pretty simple, at least over the past few seasons.

1. Get pressure on Brady, preferably up the middle and with only four guys. Easier said than done, that’s why you’ll see a lot of defenders walking around the line of scrimmage to muddy Brady’s reads and the OLs protection. As Mangini once said, if Brady knows what defense you’re in and where the pressure is coming, he’ll torch it. “If he knows, it goes”.
2. Take away the short passes with a lot of press man coverage.  Physicality with their smaller receivers is key. Disrupt the timing, especially on the quick hitters that the Pats live by.
3. Clog the middle of the field, by dropping defensive linemen if necessary.
4. Don’t be afraid to play a single safety high. Force Brady to take shots downfield. The Pats won’t win the game doing that.
5. Play 60 minutes. The game is never won until the clock reads 0:00. The second you relax on Brady he’ll score a bunch in a hurry.

1. Find a third defensive end. A veteran guy who might take lesser money for a chance at a Super Bowl. Maybe Jared Allen or (dare I say it) Demarcus Ware? Lamarr Houston might be the most realistic option. A rookie (nor Michael Buchanan) can be counted on to be the guy that they desperately need to rotate with Chandler/Nink.
2. Find an every-down Y tight end. This is Gronk insurance, and again, a rookie cannot be counted on for this role. It’s too vital, especially as a blocker. Bring back Hooman to ensure a minimal level of insurance, but also look at Scott Chandler.
3. Mid-range competition guys at WR, wouldn’t mind someone like Nate Burleson. Pats always give those guys a look. Need to push the second year guys and rookies.
4. OL depth. Doubt they’d go after a big name like Alex Mack, but they need some experienced depth in the middle of their line.
5. Internally – Talib is #1 priority. Blount would be a nice to retain as well. I think Edelman only has about a 40% chance to return. Someone will pay him just a little more than the Pats will. Lowball Wendell and try to bring him back but replacing him would be ideal. Spikes walks.

It’s a good question, especially at this time of year when there’s a lot of comparisons to previous draft picks from years past. Like “well they drafted a guy who was this size and had this kind of combine stats, so they’ll look at these similar guys this year” kind of thing. I think that’s putting the cart before the horse.

Defensively they are on the right track. No question. Add more a quality DE to rotate with Jones/Nink, get healthy at linebacker, round out the defensive tackle squad and bring back Talib and I feel more optimistic about the defense than I have in a long time. And I’m generally pretty optimistic.

Offensively, they need their WRs to develop this offseason. Shouldn’t be hard to upgrade the tight end position from what it was the majority of last season. Whenever Gronk comes back it should just be a bonus. I’d like to see them add a couple mid-range free agent receivers like they usually do to push the second year guys.

Maybe the biggest thing offensively is improving the center and right guard positions. That might be the most important personnel decision this offseason and one that could have the biggest impact. I’d love a big, dominating center. That would make life so much easier for Brady.

Schematically they’re right on track on defense. Their sub package (which is really the base defense) just needs that third defensive end. They can play man or zone and have good versatility in their secondary to match up. Even without an addition at strong safety, which I also think is possible.

Their offensive scheme also has good versatility. They can pound it and with the progress of the receivers who will be in their second season with the team, they should be able to pick up the pace a bit and not have so much inconsistency.

If you’re trying to rebuild the Gronk/Hernando offense there’s no question Amaro is the guy you want. My thing with Amaro is that I just don’t think the Pats value the kind of player he is as a first round pick. I also don’t believe that it’s imperative that the Pats return to that kind of two TE offense, nor that that is their goal this offseason.

Look at Hernandez, he was a fourth round flyer with character issues. Even without the character issues I don’t think the Pats would’ve valued him higher than a third round pick. 

Amaro is not going to be an every down tight end right off the bat. He’s going to play primarily on passing downs or when the gameplan calls for a lot of spread offense. Personally I view that kind of player as a second level priority and would rather have a trench player with that first round pick. Games are won or lost in the trenches.

There’s no question, the Pats need to have more threats on offense than they did in 2013, but just a year of experience and some additional help will help that without any personnel additions. 

Drafting a potential like Amaro is certainly sexy to a lot of fans, especially those who were enamored with the 2011 Pats offense, but I think the most direct way to improve the team in the first round is taking a player who will make an impact on every down and maybe even special teams. Give me a DT/DE/OL and take some flyers on potential F tight ends down the line.