It’s difficult by design and given the Patriots’ unprecedented and unmatched level of success in the salary cap, they’re a pretty good model to look at.
The headline would probably be letting a player go a year too early rather than a year too late. That’s always the sweet spot of overpaying someone who is on the verge of decline.
There are plenty of examples, like McGinest, Vrabel, Seymour, Welker – and in most cases those players haven’t had sustained success after leaving New England (we’ll see how Welker does this year, but his concussion history seemed to be catching up to him in 2013).
The other way the Pats have beat the system is allowing open competition for lower round and no-round draft picks. They always seem to have undrafted rookies make the team and often make big impacts. This is even more shocking given their continued ability to win with these players no one wanted.
They also maximize the value of draft picks as a way to mitigate risk. No teams really know what they’re doing in the draft. The only reasonable strategy is to get as many picks as you can. You’re going to miss on a lot of them, but the more picks you make, the more chances you have of finding a Julian Edelman or Alfonzo Dennard in the 7th round.
This was even more true before the rookie salary cap when a miss on a high first-rounder could be crippling.
The last element is getting guys to take market value deals and often re-structuring their contracts when needed. This is easier to sell when you can offer a chance to win a Super Bowl like the Pats can.
