PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

Key to Beating the Patriots: Hope Their Run Defense Sucks

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Usually I’m a sucker for advanced NFL stats, but I found myself disappointed by this collection of numbers. In it the writer determines that if teams simply keep the ball on the ground and pound the Pats they should win.

One of the biggest mistakes when applying statistics to games like professional football is confusing cause and effect. Just because the Browns and Jets were able to run the ball and ended up winning doesn’t mean that any team can just follow their lead.

You can’t just retroactively look at numbers, see what the trends are and say those are the cause for the outcome. In reality those numbers are the effect of two teams performances. If a team has a bad day on run defense and the opponent has a good day on run offense of course the numbers would seem to point to one big key thing.

This is even further ridiculous when you realize the sample size they’re using is just TWO games!

I could just as easily interpret these numbers and say when the Patriots run defense isn’t stopping the run, teams will continue to run more on them and they’ll be less likely to win the game.

The Patriots run defense has actually been pretty stout this year but they were uncharacteristically bad in those two losses. Beating the Patriots is not caused by continuing to run the ball on them. If their 3-4 run defense is playing well like they usually do that would be an easy way to get steamrolled.

So really this article and the numbers it provides don’t tell you much other than “if the Patriots can’t stop the run they’re probably gonna lose”. Shocking, I know.

Or maybe better yet, the key to beating the Patriots is having their run defense suck.

NFLN Playbook Review: Patriots vs. Jets

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I can’t really recommend this video enough, it’s NFLN’s breakdown of the Pats – Jets and it gives so much insight into what the Jets do on defense and what the Patriots did to counter it, while at the same time showing why Randy Moss wasn’t the right fit offensively for this method of attack.

I’m of the firm belief that many football fans, and even some of the media members who cover football, think they’re watching checkers when there’s really a chess match going on. If you think you’re one of them go buy Pat Kirwan’s Take Your Eye Off The Ball, it’s a great place to start. 

In this video clip we get a full on X and O’s session with guru Mike Mayock. I could listen to Mayock break down film all day, but the big points of what he shows are the minute details that go into an offensive attack.

The Jets have excellent cornerbacks and love to play man coverage with them. The idea is to confuse the quarterback with which blitzers may or may not be coming, then take away the short routes with tight coverage.

So in the video you see what BB and BO’B did to counter that. Quick passes that took into account Jet players who would be dropping into short zones to take the quick passes away. Only these quick passes went where the Jets weren’t covering.

There’s a lot of picking going on by the Patriots receivers, a skill that Deion Branch and Wes Welker are masters of, not only because they’re good blockers but also really quick in and out of their cuts.

When Welker and Branch weren’t open, there were mismatches galore with Gronk, Hernando, and Woody. The result was the beatdown we all witnessed.

When you see what the Patriots did it becomes really clear how you have to creatively beat the Jets blitzing man defense. It was executed to perfection on Monday night.

Randy Moss isn’t a good fit for this style of game… short routes with catch and run, or having to set a block for another receiver. His game was getting deep, but that takes time to develop and defenses like the Jets don’t give quarterbacks much time.

That’s why you might remember Brady lobbing up passes to Moss in week two. If Moss could get a step on the corner, and the protection picked up all the rushers the result would be a long touchdown. But those instances were rare, and ultimately the Pats were not going to clobber the Jets like they did on Monday night still trying to run a vertical spread offense. 

With most defenses trying to copy the Jets style to beat the Pats (basically the same style that the Giants used in Super Bowl 42) the evolution to this new horizontal attacking offense keeps the Pats one step ahead yet again.

Probably the Best Patriots – Jets Wrap Up Video You’ll See

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If you’re a Patriots fan it is time to reap the reward for pounding the Jets on Monday night. Below I present a furious Jets fan in what looks like some sort of terrorist ransom video. He’s disgusted with his team and in a way that is thoroughly enjoyable to watch. If you can’t make it through the whole thing I suggest you go to the 4:30 mark, it gets pretty good there. The word “apoplectic” comes to mind.

I don’t know if the lack of Jets schwag is a choice or he’s just so passionate he doesn’t feel the need for any. But don’t worry, the rage forces him to pull his sunglasses off about halfway through. I could watch this all day…

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Defensive Lineman Snap Graph 

Notes and observations…

With Pryor and Wright out Vince Wilfork was forced to play a lot, tallying his third highest snap percentage of  the season. Wilfork manhandled Nick Mangold much of the night. This is a Pro Bowl season for big Vince.

Looks like Brandon Deaderick needed more seasoning. He’s been a healthy scratch from the defense the last two weeks despite their shortage.

Kyle Love on the other hand is coming on.

Gerard Warren has been an outstanding addition this season. We hope they sign him up for another year. He plays hard and tough and has stayed healthy.

Ron Brace has put together a pretty solid season. Still room for him to improve but he’s done well and made some good stops. How he would fit in when Ty Warren comes back in 2011 will be interesting to find out.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/defensive-lineman-snap-graph-notes-and/

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Patriots Linebacker Snap Graph

Some notes and observations…

Jermaine Cunningham saw the most playing time of his career against the Jets.

Dane Fletcher played OLB but only saw 7 snaps.

Spikes and Ninkovich are pretty much solely run stoppers, playing almost identical snaps.

Guyton and Banta-Cain are pretty much solely pass defenders and saw the majority of the snaps since the Jets were trying to pass a lot.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-linebacker-snap-graph-some-notes-and/

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Patriots Defensive Back Snap % Graph

Interesting trends to note…

Butler and Page get increased playtime against Jets, eats into Sanders and Chung’s snaps. Chung had been the nickelback replacement for Jonthan Wilhite but Butler was inserted against the Jets and did a pretty good job. We’ve noticed all along that straight up coverage is not Chung’s strength and he was picked on against the Colts and Lions.

Meriweather, Arrington and McCourty remain the ironmen of the defensive backs, playing almost every snap.

Chung and Page’s return to health has also taken every snap from Sergio Brown.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-defensive-back-snap-graph-interesting/