Usually I’m a sucker for advanced NFL stats, but I found myself disappointed by this collection of numbers. In it the writer determines that if teams simply keep the ball on the ground and pound the Pats they should win.
One of the biggest mistakes when applying statistics to games like professional football is confusing cause and effect. Just because the Browns and Jets were able to run the ball and ended up winning doesn’t mean that any team can just follow their lead.
You can’t just retroactively look at numbers, see what the trends are and say those are the cause for the outcome. In reality those numbers are the effect of two teams performances. If a team has a bad day on run defense and the opponent has a good day on run offense of course the numbers would seem to point to one big key thing.
This is even further ridiculous when you realize the sample size they’re using is just TWO games!
I could just as easily interpret these numbers and say when the Patriots run defense isn’t stopping the run, teams will continue to run more on them and they’ll be less likely to win the game.
The Patriots run defense has actually been pretty stout this year but they were uncharacteristically bad in those two losses. Beating the Patriots is not caused by continuing to run the ball on them. If their 3-4 run defense is playing well like they usually do that would be an easy way to get steamrolled.
So really this article and the numbers it provides don’t tell you much other than “if the Patriots can’t stop the run they’re probably gonna lose”. Shocking, I know.
Or maybe better yet, the key to beating the Patriots is having their run defense suck.