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5 Questions for the 2016 Patriots

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With the conclusion of OTAs, the New England Patriots will no hit a brief summer break before the start of training camp in late July. There’s been plenty of moves this offseason that should make the 2016 version of the team a unique flavor, and while there’s plenty to be excited about, there are still a number of questions that face the team.

Here are the things that I’ll be most curious to watch once training camp opens and the 2016 season gets underway.

  1. 2016 Patriots QuestionsRunning Back Plan — At the start of the offseason I felt like it was time for the Patriots to re-commit to their ground game a bit. It’s been well documented how much the Pats struggled to move the ball on the ground once Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount were lost for the season. But the Patriots did barely anything at the position — signing Donald Brown and undrafted rookie D.J. Foster was it. Neither of those players are even locks to make the roster. So what now? Assume Lewis and Blount return and stay healthy all year? Believe James White will earn the coaching staff’s trust to carry the ball? That Tyler Gaffney can stay healthy and contribute? Those are big questions and nothing leaves us feeling confident that the Patriots will have a running game resurgence unless Lewis comes back in the same form he left and plays the entire season. Perhaps the offensive line will be better and it won’t really matter who’s carrying the ball. Still, it tough to see how it will play out and another injury to Lewis or Blount would be devastating.
  2. Tom Brady Suspension — Of course this one’s a headline but really, in the grand scheme of the season, I don’t think whether or not Brady sits the first four games will have a huge impact overall. That’s assuming that Garoppolo would at least lead the team to a 2-2 record which seems manageable considering the opponents, veteran Patriots defense and weaponry around him. The problem could be a lack of running game in those early weeks. Being one dimensional with Tom Brady is one thing, but with Garoppolo it could be hairy.
  3. Defensive Scheme Tweaks — The two interesting twists from minicamp was Shea McClellin playing defensive end instead of middle linebacker and Rob Ninkovich playing middle linebacker instead of defensive end. I still believe that these are not major position switches, rather a chance to see what Ninkovich can do at a spot where depth is limited, and that we’ll still see McClellin in a linebacker role more often than with his hand on ground. But this does point to some more front seven versatility. We’ve already seen Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins playing all around the front and now it would seem the team is preparing to be even more fluid with where they can align everyone.
  4. Offensive Line Coming Together — There’s going to be some great competition along the offensive line in training camp and we didn’t really get much of a glimpse of it in minicamp with so many players still out, including Solder, Vollmer, Kline, Jackson and, for most of the practices, Mason. This left a starting offensive line of Waddle–Thuney–Stork/Andrews–Cooper–Cannon. Stork and Andrews should be a tight battle at center with the loser possibly ending up on the street. Does Cannon’s salary make him a potential camp casualty? Jackson and Mason had promising moments as rookies, how will they progress under Dante Scarnecchia? Is Joe Thuney better than both of them? Can Cooper re-find his elite talent level that made him a top-10 pick? Can Vollmer and Solder get (and stay) healthy)? So many questions at such an important position grouping.
  5. Health — Every year at the start  of camp the dreaded PUP list comes out for those not fully recovered yet. The list of integral Patriots who weren’t able to go in the spring is long and there’s no guarantee who will be back and ready to go in six weeks. If guys like Edelman, Amendola or the significant offensive linemen are still recovering it will open up opportunities for other players, but could also adversely affect how good the team will be in September. It’s important to take the long view and having guys in January is much more important, but who knows what kind of injury management will be happening through camp.

Tweets of Note from Monday Patriots OTA

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Today was the final OTA practice open to the media, so it’s the last time we’ll see the Patriots on the field until training camp, just over a month away. Two big headlines from today was the return of three players — Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis and Shaq Mason.

Not sure what was going on with Gronkowski and why he was missing from mandatory minicamp last week, but it doesn’t seem like anything too serious. The horrible media pundits can go back to trying fabricate the “Gronk’s unhappy with his contract” hot take they all seem so obsessed with.

Lewis’ return is excellent news, and brings back memories of Wes Welker returning to OTAs during the 2010 offseason, just five months removed from tearing his ACL. Welker was ready to go in Week 1 of the 2010 season but the Patriots still managed his snaps early in the year and I’d expect the same of Lewis. But the fact that he was on the field, running and cutting, is a good one no matter how you spin it.

Here are some more tweets of note:

Jones is a popular pick for this year’s UDFA to make the roster. I’ll be very curious to see how he compares to Darryl Roberts. Those two could be fighting for the last CB roster spot.

 

 

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Pats Posits: Patriots Minicamp Wrap

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I’m back in the blogging saddle after a few days on Cape Cod celebrating the life of my 90-year old grandma who passed away. Looks like there was plenty I missed from Patriots minicamp, but the good news is that there’s plenty of time to catch up.

Here are a bunch of quick-hit posits about the reports from those who were there watching the action:

— Yes, Aaron Dobson led the team in catches over the three-day period and was saying all the right things in interviews, knowing that the biggest thing for him is stay healthy. This isn’t the first time Dobson has impressed when everyone’s in shorts, so I’m not quite ready to start believing he’s going to suddenly break out in his fourth year. He did show some promise as a rookie, but since then I’ve seen little development from Dobson when everyone has pads on. The biggest problem I have is his inability to make plays with the balls in his hands. Go back and look at any of his catches the last two seasons and I’ll guarantee he falls down right after catching just about every single one. He also seems to always be double catching the ball, often with his arms. Maybe he’ll turn a corner on those things, but until I see him streaking down the field after making a clean catch, dodging would-be tacklers and picking up extra yards, I continue to view Dobson as a long-shot unless Edelman and Amendola are PUP candidates to start the season.

— Maybe the most interesting news to me was that Rob Ninkovich was playing middle linebacker, however I think this is purely a depth move, giving Ninkovich some experience in the spot should he ever be needed because let’s face it, Jonathan Freeny was a liability at MLB last year. The other interesting related aspect to this is Shea McClellin playing with the defensive ends. Since he’s new to the system I don’t think this a depth move. He needs to learn the defense first. But with Ninkovich he can play defensive end for the Pats’ system in his sleep. This does however raise a question of what the Pats “regular” four defensive back package looks like up front, especially at the MLB spot. Still haven’t totally ruled out that McClellin, Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins are all chess pieces in regular with no set formation for offenses to key on.

— DJ Foster tweaked a hamstring during camp, but he stood out once again as being the most explosive running back on the field. Makes you wonder how the Dion Lewis (recovering from an ACL tear), James White and Foster can all fit together, and why Belichick seems far more interested in small receiving backs than early-down pounders. Perhaps it relates to the pure size the Patriots offensive front can put on the field — if you have a true Double Y tight end offense with Gronk and Bennett, along with James Develin, the holes should be there, no matter how big the running backs are. Again, all I don’t want to see is for the Pats to be a purely passing team at the end of the season like they were last year. Injuries played a huge role in that of course, but I’m curious how it will all fit together this year.


— Malcolm Mitchell is also off to a good start, a huge plus for a rookie wide receiver even if he’s had limited snaps with Brady. The biggest thing is for him to stay healthy in these early days. So many of the rookie wide receivers that have failed to click with Brady were hit with injuries in their first training camp and/or regular season. If Mitchell can avoid the injury bug this first year, his odds of carving out a role in the offense increase.

— Michael Williams tore his ACL in camp, luckily the only major injury. I had Williams on the bubble, trending toward not making the roster so I don’t think this opens up an unexpected spot on the 53-man roster. But it should mean more reps for guys like Clay Harbor and AJ Derby.

— Kamu Grugier-Hill popped up with an interception. Anytime you’re hearing any rookie’s name it’s a positive sign, even in a teaching camp like this where the rooks haven’t really been thrown to the wolves yet. I like Grugier-Hills to slip into Tavon Wilson‘s old roster spot/special teams role. I don’t like typing “Grugier-Hill”.

— All three quarterbacks impressed and that’s a good thing to see, especially with the improvement that Jacoby Brissett already showing at this early stage.

— Thought this nugget from Andy Hart was interesting:

At the end of every practice, when the team gathers to stretch in position groups, Dante Scarnecchia has returned to his tradition of making his linemen line their helmets perfectly straight on a yard line. He checks it and players have to fix any imperfections, as Marcus Cannon had to today, before they get to their stretching.

— Finally, I must leave you with this…

Boston Herald/Howe – 5 questions for Patriots minicamp

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The Patriots open their mandatory three-day minicamp Tuesday at Gillette Stadium.

Source: 5 questions for Patriots minicamp | Boston Herald

Good read here from Jeff Howe, breaking down some of the specifics to look for over the next three days. But let’s be honest, it’s really just like we’re spinning our wheels because there won’t be anything monumental to take away from mini-camp. Maybe someone like Dion Lewis is out there, and that’d be a great sign that his knee is returning to healthy, but otherwise everyone is there to learn not compete for a job just yet.

I will be curious to see if we can decipher who’s playing receiver along with Chris Hogan, since Edelman and Amendola are probably sitting. Keyshawn Martin probably makes the most sense. But there will be plenty of rotation and with Brady’s possible suspension, things will be even more mixed up that usual. I also wonder at what point do the Pats start managing Brady’s throws moreso anyway. His arm showed no signs of slowing down at the end of last year, but it’s something to think about.

This will be the last time we see the boys on the field before the long break until training camp opens at the end of July. Yes, it’s the final push of the offseason, but make no mistake, football is coming.

Is James White on the roster bubble?

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One thing I love nothing more than is debating ProFootballFocus ratings and yesterday they dropped this little nugget about James White.

White was thrown into the first last year in his second season when Dion Lewis went down, but while you might think he simply took over Lewis’ extensive role, he was actually managed far more delicately. The week after Lewis was lost for the season White had just one catch on one target and one carry. The next week, three targets, and the following week five targets.

His breakout game came in the fourth week against the Eagles, where he had 10 catches on 13 targets for 115 yards, but that was the high-water mark of the season. And while he slowly became a factor in the passing game the Patriots never handed the ball off to him more than three times in a game during the regular season. In the AFC Championship they handed it off to him five times and he picked up a measly 11 yards.

More troubling, and this is a stat I’ve hit on far more than I’d like this offseason, was White’s performance in the passing game in that AFC Championship, where he was targeted a team-high 16 times and came up with just five catches for 45 yards, the most devastating of which is GIF’d below. A touchdown here could’ve been the difference in the game.

James White

 

For the season White ended up with 40 catches for 410 yards and four touchdowns, but just 22 rushing attempts for 56 yards. It’s painfully obvious how one-dimensional he was. The bigger problem is how much of a key White will be every time he takes the field. Is he a good receiver? Sure. Is he good enough to change the course of a game as a pure receiving back? Nope.

That’s why I am putting White on the bubble. Despite White’s place on the roster it didn’t stop the Patriots from looking at receiving backs this offseason, including Bilal Powell, and signing undrafted rookie DJ Foster, who seems on paper very much like White as well.

It might be too late to give up on White, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have to earn a job this summer and prove that he’s more capable of running the ball than he appeared to be last year.

Dez Bryant recovery timeline may not bode well for Julian Edelman – CSNNE/Curran

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It took Bryant five months to get clearance to merely run and cut. If it takes five months for Edelman and his left foot to be cleared, that would put his timeline to begin doing the same things in mid-September.Obviously, everyone heals at different rates and one must allow for differences between the procedures the two players had done. And sources have expressed confidence that Edelman will be ready for training camp.

Source: Dez Bryant recovery timeline may not bode well for Julian Edelman

It’s pretty amazing how fast a player goes from a JAG to indispensable. Not to say Edelman was necessarily just a guy, but in his first four years with the Pats he had just four touchdowns and 69 catches. In the Pats 2011 AFC Championship season he had just four catches, and that was his third year in the league, a time when you’d think a receiver of Edelman’s current status would’ve been starting to hit his stride.

Now you read a report like the one above and you wonder what the Patriots would possibly do if Edelman misses extended time once again this season. The numbers for the Patriots’ offense without Edelman were ugly, especially on third down where their conversion rate dropped almost 20 percent.

Now at this point it still sounds like everyone’s expecting Edelman to be ready to go for training camp, but this speaks to a couple larger points.

First, the Pats must continue to develop wide receivers of all kinds. Everyone talks about needing the proverbial deep threat, but it’s just as important at this point to continue stockpiling “quick open” Z-receiver types as well. Malcolm Mitchell and Devin Lucien will be guys to watch this summer, as will Chris Hogan.

Second, the Z-receiver spot in the Pats’ offense isn’t exactly plug-and-play but it’s pretty close. It may take a bit for a receiver to totally earn Brady’s trust, but once they do, they’re going to see plenty of targets.

So I’d preach patience this summer with the likes of Mitchell and Lucien, as well as Chris Harper, DeAndre Carter and Keshawn Martin. They might need to heavily rely on those guys sooner than we think.

500 Days of Deflategate

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It takes a lot for me to write about Deflategate. That’s one of the advantages of just having my own place to write — I blog when I wanna blog, and about what I want to blog. Usually non-football topics build and build until finally I feel the need to vent and then you get things like Is Tom Brady a Deflation Scheme Mastermind?

But otherwise I’m fine to leave the daily lifting of Deflategate nonsense to those who are getting paid to write many, many things per day about the Patriots. If you want to see all things Deflategate that have appeared here on the blog click here.

There have been so many ups and downs with Deflategate and it’s hard to believe that it’s dragged on this long. When I started blogging I never thought I’d have to learn what Amicus Briefs are or the finer points of labor law. This speaks to a bigger point that this whole debacle hasn’t really even been about football (or footballs) for a long time.

What is most fascinating to me are those people out there who checked out after taking every word of the Wells Report as fact. Nothing that’s happened since then has penetrated their Deflategate force field that is impervious to any bit of evidence or possibility that Tom Brady wasn’t behind an elaborate plot to take a small farts worth of air out of footballs.

Those people are usually fans of other teams that have lost numerous times to Brady over the years and the best part is their dismissive tone, often accompanied by a number of lol emojis, as if the only people in the world who still think Brady might be innocent are diehard Patriot fan homers with their heads in the sand.

But who really has their heads in the sand?

The battle lines were drawn clearly once again this week when a number of amicus briefs were filed in support of Brady. These briefs covered everything — from scientists saying the balls weren’t even deflated, to huge unions and a respected arbitrator all saying the process was completely rigged and unfair, to the Patriots themselves siding with their own player over the league in a rare move that brings back memories of Al Davis and the Raiders.

Yes, we’re all sick of Deflategate and there are plenty of Patriots fans who’d just prefer to let Brady sit four games and never have to hear about the whole thing again. But as annoying as it is, as much as I prefer to ignore it all now at least here in this blog space, the ramifications for how this was handled by Roger Goodell and the NFL run far deeper than the Patriots having to play four games without the best quarterback of all time.

The amicus briefs this week finally showed in one concise place how much is at stake here and just how deep the support of Brady runs outside of New England. The list of those who have been on Brady’s side, both in the national media and in legal circles, is long and distinguished. People far smarter in all this stuff continue to hammer the NFL at every turn, how they were simply “handing out their own brand of industrial justice” while rigging the process in their own favor whenever possible.

And that’s why even the most ardent Brady haters need to put aside their football loyalties and realize how corrupt their beloved NFL league office is. They know it deep down inside. Of course they do. This is Roger Goodell. He’s managed to screw up every single discipline issue he’s had to deal with. This time was even worse because they were trying to stay one step ahead on everything so they wouldn’t screw up so badly again.

But the Brady haters? This time they’re on Goodell’s side? They think he did a bang up job with this? Of course they don’t, but they cannot let go of wanting to believe Tom Brady wasn’t better than their team, he was just cheating and the only reason he was so good was that  small farts worth of air he got his cronies to let out of  the football.

The lack of that small fart of air made them magic footballs. Easier to catch. Impossible to fumble. That was the secret of the Patriots success.

 

While the amicus briefs show just how badly Brady was railroaded and how much support he has, it’s no guarantee the court will re-hear the case with all of their judges. The odds seem better now than they did a few weeks ago, but this still might be the end of the line, or the second-to-last stop before taking a final shot with the Supreme Court.

No matter how it ends the Deflategate Truthers will never believe those footballs weren’t deflated. No matter what scientists tell them. No matter how many times an experienced legal mind points out all the terrible and unfair ways the NFL handled the whole thing from the get go.

It just speaks to how willing people are to buy bullshit if it makes them feel better about their worldview. And usually those people have very large internet muscles while they hide behind keyboards and ignore any shred of evidence that might contradict what they want to believe.

 

But one way or another they’ll get theirs, whether it’s another crushing loss to Brady or when the NFL turns it’s inept and vindictive legal eye on their team.

Deflategate has been bad for everyone and is only a sign of things to come unless the NFL is finally held accountable.