PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

Patriots 2016 Preview: Defensive Overview

by

We’re just 17 days away from the start of Patriots training camp! The offseason always seems so long but somehow goes by so quickly. As we gear up for a huge new season here on the blog (more on that in the coming days), I’m posting some excerpts from my 40-page Patriots 2016 preview.

Here’s my defensive overview,  you can buy a digital copy of the preview book its entirety here for just $4.

2015 Defensive Statistical Rankings

Overall DVOA – 12th           Yards-per-Game – 24th (339.4)

Passing DVOA – 10th           Points-per-Game – 10th (19.7)

Running DVOA – 13th          Third Down – 10th (37 percent)

Fourth Down –  10th (44 percent)

The Patriots had perhaps their best defensive season since the dynasty days in 2015. After much concern about transitioning from Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, the Pats seamlessly transitioned to Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan, and saw their third down defense enter the top-10 in the NFL after being ranked 16th in 2015.

Most encouraging was that the Pats stuck primarily with the Cover-1 Robber defense that they used most often in 2014 as well. Man defense is critical in today’s NFL and the Pats held up well minimizing zone defenses that can be picked apart.

Jamie CollinsWhile the offense was decimated with injuries, the defense had better injury luck. Both Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower missed some games, but everyone was available for the playoffs and they turned in two solid performances.

With everyone returning except Chandler Jones, there’s little reason to think they won’t be even better this year.

One factor could be a significantly tougher schedule in 2016. Instead of cake walks with the AFC South and NFC East, they’ll now have to face the daunting NFC West and AFC North, which feature a number of top quarterbacks and difficult matchups.

The major additions on defense include Chris Long, Shea McClellin and Terrence Knighton. While Rob Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard should take the starting defensive end roles, Long is more than capable as the designated pass rusher and rotational defensive end.

Prior to two years of injury, Long showed little sign of dropoff in an otherwise healthy career. He’ll surprise anyone writing him off and I expect this trio to be even better than they were with Chandler Jones. By the end of 2015, Sheard had surpassed Jones on the depth chart anyway, playing more snaps in both playoff games.

McClellin gives the Patriots a third linebacker/edge hybrid player who can do a little of everything like Hightower and Collins, though he worked with the defensive ends in minicamp. He also gives them long term insurance as both Collins and Hightower enter the final years of their deals (though I’d expect both to re-sign before the 2016 season is done).

Acquiring Knighton, picking up Alan Branch’s option, the release of Dominique Easley and the drafting of Vincent Valentine all signal the direction of the Patriots’ defense schematically. No longer are they interested in undersized three-technique penetrators.

No, now it’s now all about size in the middle and essentially a paired down version of Belichick’s old 3-4 defense. Malcom Brown is an outstanding athlete, and though he doesn’t quite have the height of the other three tackles, he and the others will be able to occupy the middle of offensive lines while the linebackers and defensive ends make the plays.

It’s exciting to return nearly the entire defense, along with some solid additions in both free agency and the draft who should contribute immediately. Expectations should be through the roof, but they’ll be tested right out of the gate and see every variation of offense that exists in the NFL. They’re built to deal with all of them.

Brady (2) and Gronk (9) top NFL’s Top 100 of 2015

by

The NFL wrapped up their Top-100 of 2015 last night with Tom Brady coming in second (to Cam Newton) and Rob Gronkowski coming in ninth. You’ll have to click through to YouTube to watch the segments (Brady / Gronk). While the NFL has taken great steps forward making their content available online, they still won’t let you embed their stuff. Baby steps I guess.

Of course there’s some outrage that Brady wasn’t number one, but as someone who really doesn’t invest much time or energy in rankings, I say whatevs. Brady was brilliant in 2015, his second season in three years where his offense was effectively dismantled by injuries. Even in games where he lost key guys and the team was deflated (sorry), he still produced.

Most QBs would’ve folded after seeing Gronk go down like he did in Denver. Not Brady. Still led an epic drive with scrubs to force OT. As we saw in 2014, with a little injury luck in 2016, the Pats will be hard to keep out of the Super Bowl. Brady’s shown no sign of slowing down.

Despite Brady’s brilliance, which, let’s face it, everyone’s used to, it’s hard to say this wasn’t Cam Newton’s year. Yeah I know he sucked in the Super Bowl, but Brady also sucked in the 2010 AFCDG after being the unanimous MVP of the regular season. He still was #1 on the Top 100 that year. Everyone loves new flashy objects. That’s what Cam was after his superstar breakout season, so kudos to him.

And what does it matter? Not a whole lot. At least we get an extended segment on Brady since he’s in the Top 10. Other than that I don’t really care who was ranked where.

As for Gronk, he clearly belongs in the Top 10. It’s especially encouraging that he’s had two healthy seasons after 2011-2013 all ended with him in major surgery and rehab. You need to look no further than the final drive of the AFC Championship to see how unstoppable Gronk is. Huge fourth-down catch, huge touchdown and was open for the two-point conversion as well. That was all him and Brady, in a huge moment, doing what Top-10 players should do.

At that point Edelman was on one leg and everyone knew it was going to Gronk. They still couldn’t stop it.

If Gronk has the same injury luck for the third year in a row, the Pats offense will once again be a mostly unstoppable force.

 

 


#1 – Tom Brady – The Top 100 Players of 2011 by joshespinoza2

Cardinals All or Nothing Review

by

Binged Amazon’s All or Nothing series all last vacation week, which followed the Arizona Cardinals all of last season. It’s yet another fantastic production from NFL Films. I’ve long since given up hope that the Patriots would ever allow this kind of access, although Bill Belichick’s A Football Life came pretty close, but it’s always fascinating to see the inner workings of an NFL team going through the treacherous grind of a full season.

I can never get enough of this kind of stuff. It’s clear that NFL Films is the true propaganda wing of the NFL and it’s why many of us got hooked on the game to begin with. Here’s what stood out to me, partially from a Patriots perspective, but mostly as a football fan.

You have to start with Bruce Arians whose colorful language might distract some from the excellent football coach that he is. It’s incredible that someone like him could kick around as an assistant for so long before getting his shot, while the same old head coaches keep getting recycled over and over again. I won’t say Arians makes the whole show, but there’s no question he’s the star and his attitude and football mind permeate throughout the organization.

It’s understandable why guys want to play for Arians, and that’s why it was even more shocking to see the Cardinals completely collapse in the NFC Championship.  Still, Arians can coach my team any day and I am fascinated to see what kind of game plan he puts together for the Patriots in Week 1.

That’s where I found my mind drifting during the show — Week 1, Patriots @ Cardinals.

The biggest problem is going to be David Johnson, where I’d expect Dont’a Hightower to have his hands full with the second-year back who was told by his position coach during his 2015 exit interview that his career should end with a bust in the Hall of Fame. Johnson’s a big back who can catch and that will pose a number of problems for the Patriots. The first defensive key to the game will be to stop Johnson.

On the other side of the ball the biggest question is of course which quarterback the Cardinals will be seeing in Week 1, whether it’s Tom Brady or Jimmy Garoppolo. But the Cardinals have some questions of their own, including how ready Tyrann Mathieu will be coming off a torn ACL late in the 2015 season.

The Cardinals defense was worlds different once Mathieu went down. His leadership both on the field and off it was apparent over and over during the course of the series. And as good as Patrick Peterson is, he and the rest of the Arizona secondary are a far less intimidating squad with the Honey Badger.

Cardinals All or Nothing

Chandler Jones should be a big piece for the 2016 Cardinals defense.

The Cardinals will also welcome Chandler Jones into their mix and I’m sure the former Patriot will be fired up to play against his old team. The Cardinals are the most blitz-happy team in the league which could be extremely dangerous if they’re seeing Brady, who torches heavy blitzing teams, or extremely effective if Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t seeing his hot reads clearly in his first start.

One thing to watch though, as Chandler is being moved to outside linebacker in Arizona, is that I expect the Patriots to get him in coverage against their tight ends as much as possible. And if you see Gronk or Bennett split out wide and Chandler going with them, look out (if you’re a Cardinals fan).

I was also extremely impressed with the management of the Cardinals, led by President Michael Bidwell and GM Steve Keim. Every time NFL Films captures the owner/management relationships, it’s always pretty awkward. Bidwell’s interactions with Keim and Arians was every bit as cringe-worthy as Robert Kraft trying to talk to Belichick at times in his A Football Life.  The owners always seem to come off like I worry I would come off to the “football guys”, like a fan whose genuine enthusiasm just doesn’t get the true respect of those who have been grinding in the NFL for decades.

But of course, the owners are the bosses leaving the “football guys” no choice but to accept all the tepid observations and awkward fist bumps. Although Bidwell has the eccentricity you’d expect from the latest in a long line of fortunate heirs, his love of his rescue dog who died during the show after a long bout with kidney disease humanized him. By the end of the show, he seemed more a valued member of the Cardinals organization than he did at the start, even if he was a little goofy.

Larry Fitzgerald only further cemented his place as a Hall of Famer during the 2016, capped off with amazing catch-and-run in the divisional round that set up a shovel pass touchdown to win the game on the next play. Larry has always had a reputation as one of the game’s good guys and that was on full display in the series.

I couldn’t help but find most of the player-only meetings consistently awkward. Patrick Peterson, Carson Palmer and Tyrann Mathieu were just a few to step up and address the team at various points of the season. I never felt even close to inspired or moved with them like I was when Arians spoke. It always feels forced when players try to talk to the team. Even when it was Ray Lewis. You just always get the feeling these guys are professionals and don’t truly respond when their teammates get rah-rah on them.

One conspicuous absence was any sight or mention of Jen Welter, the Cardinals’ female coaching assistant last season. I had spoken with Jen a couple times before she became an NFL coach and she is a truly passionate football person. Just watch some of the highlights from her playing days. Would’ve been nice to see a little bit on her and the significant step she took for women in the sport last season.

Overall, this was every bit the perfect production that we’ve come to expect from NFL Films. They are masters of truly capturing and framing the epic “good vs. evil” narrative we all to apply to our beloved football teams. It was stylized in the right spots, humanizing beyond football in the right spots and left you with the all-too-familiar feeling of how there’s only one happy team at the end of each season.

It may not be the Patriots, but All or Nothing is a great way to get you through the last couple weeks before training camp. It certainly got me even more fired up for the season opener on September 11th in Arizona. The Cardinals will have their best shot waiting for the Patriots.

Get a free trial of Amazon Prime and check out All or Nothing!

 

Write for PatsPropaganda!

by

Thursday 7/7 Update: Thanks for all the emails and interest! It looks like I’ve found a few good bloggers to get things started this season. If you’re still interested feel free to shoot me an email and I’ll hang on to your info should people drop out as things progress.

This season I’m looking to add some other voices to PatsPropaganda. For the past six years I’ve been running the site entirely by myself and now that I made the switch over to my own hosted site from just being a simple Tumblr blog, I have the capability expand things a bit and bring in more people to produce quality Patriots content.

While I can’t say any of these positions would be paid, the site has done plenty of promotions with various companies over the last few seasons that resulted in piles of swag and tickets that I can’t use all by myself. For someone who wants to be on board for the whole season and reliably post content, essentially being my assistant editor, those benefits would often be passed along to you. There are also plenty of media opportunities the site gets invited to that I’m unable to attend but would love to send a representative to, something that would be great experience for someone looking to get into journalism.

If you just want to contribute without being so involved as an editor, I’d be open to that as well, but I can’t promise anything other than exposure. With contributors I’d work with you to find very specific focus areas to track and analyze. Maybe it’s a specific training camp battle in August, or tracking how the Pats use their defensive front seven each week. I’m not looking for someone to come in and write the same “patriots signed so and so today” piece that could be read on any other Pats site. I want microscopic analysis of the team.

I don’t know how it will all fit together just yet, but I know there are plenty of passionate Patriots fans out there who can write and just need an outlet, and that’s the biggest thing I can provide. So shoot me an email (PatsPropaganda @ gmail.com) and tell me what kind of role you’d be interested in, and the kind of storylines that interest you most for the 2016 Pats. Ideally the smaller and more specific the better.  Again, the most important thing is knowing the Patriots.

That email will start a dialogue and we’ll start putting the pieces together and hopefully bring aboard some people to help produce outstanding unique Patriots content this coming season.

Patriots 2016 Preview: Offense Overview

by

Back in the blogging saddle after a week of vacation and it’s hard to believe that another Patriots training camp is right around the corner. Over the next few weeks I’ll be posting some excerpts from my Patriots 2016 Preview book, which you can buy in its entirety here for just $4.

To kick things off here’s a quick look back at the 2015 offense and a look ahead at how things are shaping up for 2016.

2015 Offensive Statistical Rankings

  • Overall DVOA – 5th
  • Passing DVOA – 4th
  • Running DVOA – 12th
  • Yards-per-Game – 6th (374.4)
  • Points-per-Game – 3rd (29.1)
  • Third Down – 11th (41 percent)
  • Fourth Down –  t-4th (60 percent)

The Patriots were once again one of the best offenses in the NFL, looking almost as unstoppable as they were in 2007 through the first four weeks of the 2015 season. Then came the early bye week and the injury apocalypse commenced.

One stat that can define the 2015 season came on third down. Without Julian Edelman in the lineup, the Patriots third-down conversion percentage dropped by 16.1 percent, while Brady’s overall completion percentage dropped from 69.0 percent to 59.2 percent.

Edelman’s importance, or more specifically, a reliable Z-receiver who can get open quickly, is so vital to the Patriots offense. Developing depth around and in back of Edelman will be a big key for this season.

Meanwhile, the running game devolved to the point where the Pats put up just 44 yards on 17 carries in the AFC Championship. Tom Brady led the team in rushing with 13 yards. Yikes.

For the season the Pats ground “attack” was 29th in yards-per-attempt, 25th in rushing attempts and 30th in rushing yards.

This follows a two-year downward trend by the ground game where they’ve ranked 14th and 12th respectively in DVOA.. The last time they were out of the top-10 was 2005.

Other than adding veteran Donald Brown, the team essentially stayed pat with their running backs. The hope has to be that Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount return from injury and hopefully Brown or Tyler Gaffney can contribute. But that seems like a risky plan, relying on the injured and unproven.

The NFL is a passing league and as defenses get lighter and faster to defend the pass it’s a matter of time before power running offenses re-emerge. The Patriots have plenty of size up front, even if their collection of running backs seem far more geared toward the passing game.

Fullback James Develin will be back, and the offensive line should be better at opening holes, but the most exciting addition is tight end Martellus Bennett.

Never before have the Patriots had two dominant Y tight ends who can both block and catch, and that’s what they have in Bennett and Gronk.

Together, they should re-define the Patriots’ offense.

The other key personnel shift will occur at X-receiver where Brandon LaFell was released this offseason. Chris Hogan of the Bills was given the most lucrative free agent contract of the offseason and projects into the X-receiver role. He had a positive showing in minicamp.

Hogan was known as “7-11” during his rookie year on HBO’s Hard Knocks with the Dolphins because he was always open. He hasn’t played with a quarterback like Tom Brady before of course, and if he’s truly always open, he’ll see plenty of balls thrown his way. Earning Brady’s trust in the offseason is the biggest key for Hogan, but he can do everything the Pats ask of their split ends.

The running back spot is a significant area of concern, especially with their two biggest key players coming off significant injuries. But the addition of Bennett and Hogan, along with the return of Dante Scarnecchia to help get the entire offensive line back on track should mean great things once again for the Patriots offense in 2016.

PatsPropaganda 2016 Patriots Season Preview Book

by

PatsPropaganda’s 2016 Patriots season preview book features 40 pages dedicated to everything needed to prepare you for the upcoming campaign. 90 player previews, extensive stats and depth charts, along with a full game-by-game season preview and predictions — this preview book has it all and more.

Get it here: PatsPropaganda 2016 Patriots Season Preview Book – PatsPropaganda

Taking a little vacation this week as obviously it’s the deadest of the deadest period of the offseason. But it’s also the perfect time to catch up on anything you might’ve missed this offseason and get some in-depth analysis of what’s to come in training camp and in the 2016 season. My season preview book is packed full of information and stats, and for just $4 I promise you won’t be disappointed.

Will Malcolm Butler Break the Patriots’ Corner Philosophy?

by

<a rel=Here in the dead of the offseason I’ve been pondering the upcoming contract situations for various Patriots players in the next couple of years. Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower are the first priorities, with Jabaal Sheard garnering plenty of consideration himself. And those three are just the top of the list, the Pats will be hitting the reset button in a number of areas this coming offseason.

But most interesting to me is Malcolm Butler’s situation. With his strange absence from early OTA practices that he deemed a “misunderstanding,” while the media thought it was because he was unhappy with his pay, it seems like things could get interesting sooner than later.

What troubles me was looking back at this article I wrote last season about how the Patriots just didn’t give lucrative long-term deals to cornerbacks. They’ll be fine paying a big sum of money for a season like they did with Asante Samuel and Darrelle Revis, but they’ve never broken the bank for cornerbacks.

History Not on Butler’s Side

The Pats are in the driver’s seat through next season, when Butler hits restricted free agency. They can hit him with a first round tender and Butler will either have to find a team willing to give up a first round pick for him or play for the Patriots at a ballpark salary of $3.7 million. For a guy making $600k this season, that’s a pretty good bump.

But after 2017 is when things get interesting. Given the Pats’ history it would make sense to think the team will hit Butler with the franchise tag, let him play the season out and then let him walk. Yes, that seems like an abrupt end for a Super Bowl hero and the most promising cornerback since Ty Law, but if the Pats played hard ball with Law, there’s little reason to doubt they’ll play hard ball with Butler.

Age is a slight difference in this situation though, as Butler would turn 28 at the start of the 2018 league season. When the Pats were negotiating a new deal for Law he was already at the dreaded 30. Here’s some insight from last year’s piece about how those negotiations went:

In 2004, Law wanted another extension and the Patriots offered him $26 million over four years. Even today that would be the biggest contract extension the Patriots ever awarded to a corner. , including a $20 million signing bonus. Then-general manager Scott Pioli simply responded

The scariest precedent is Asante Samuel, who led the league in interceptions in the final year of his rookie deal in 2006. Instead of giving the promising young corner a long term deal, the Pats hit him with the franchise tag in 2007 for $7.79 million then let him go to the Eagles the next offseason on a six-year, $56 million deal.

Butler Break the Mold?

But maybe Butler is different. He’s certainly a better fit for the Patriots now than Samuel was because of his ability to play man coverage and fearless run support. But with so many other players to pay over the next couple seasons and a number of other promising young man-coverage cornerbacks in the pipeline, the team might once again be forced to let a talented player leave.

Things could come to a head sooner if Butler doesn’t feel like waiting for this scenario to unfold. If he were to hold out would the Patriots give him a raise like they did with Richard Seymour? Seymour proved that playing hardball with the Pats can sometimes work out. But defensive end is a different position and one that the Patriots seem to value more than cornerback.

If Butler isn’t careful he could instead end up like Deion Branch in 2006 — shipped out of town.

This will be one of the more fascinating scenarios to play out over the next couple years.  Is Butler really special? Has the way the Patriots view cornerbacks changed? Or will he just be the latest one to have every ounce of value squeezed out of him before cashing in with a huge deal from another team?