PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | AFC Divisional Round Preview

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | AFC Divisional Round Preview

Really interesting stuff…

Talib has surprisingly poor charting numbers since he joined the Patriots at midseason (9.3 yards allowed per pass and just a 38 percent Success Rate based on our current data), but the five games with Talib in the starting lineup were undoubtedly the best five-game stretch for the Patriots’ defense all season.

You can see the team’s improvement with each move, and then a decline when Dennard and Talib get hurt:

  • Weeks 1-6 (McCourty and Arrington starting): 23.9% DVOA vs. pass
  • Weeks 7-10 (Dennard and Arrington starting, McCourty moves to safety): 8.6% DVOA vs. pass
  • Weeks 11-15 (Dennard and Talib starting, Arrington moves to nickel): 4.5% DVOA vs. pass
  • Weeks 16-17 (Dennard and Talib injured, Arrington and McCourty start at cornerback again): 13.9% DVOA vs. pass

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https://www.patspropaganda.com/14194/

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https://www.patspropaganda.com/14197/

Sunday divisional-playoffs preview: Tom Brady will lead potent Patriots offense to AFC title game | Shutdown Corner – Yahoo! Sports

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Sunday divisional-playoffs preview: Tom Brady will lead potent Patriots offense to AFC title game | Shutdown Corner – Yahoo! Sports

Nice breakdown with a lot of mention of Football Outsiders’ metrics, which you’ll find a lot here as well.

The Texans defense and running game should keep things close, but as Phillips noted, the Patriots have too many weapons on offense to keep in check. Between Gronkowski and Hernandez, Welker and Lloyd, and the Patriots’ up-tempo, no-huddle approach, Sunday’s game could be the one where the Texans really feel the losses of inside linebackers Brian Cushing, Tim Dobbins and Daryl Sharpton, as well as nickel corner Brice McCain, to injury. Another X-factor could come on special teams, an area of the game where New England ranked fourth and Houston ranked dead last, according to Football Outsiders.

3TFO: Texans @ Patriots, AFC Divisional | ProFootballFocus.com

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3TFO: Texans @ Patriots, AFC Divisional | ProFootballFocus.com

Dead on stuff in this one…

Midway through November we were asking ourselves What’s wrong with Vince Wilfork?, but the anchor in the middle of New England’s line has since upped his game. He ranks fourth among all defensive tackles this season with an 8.7 Run Stop Percentage. On the second level, Brandon Spikes leads all inside linebackers with a 14.0 run defense grade, and Jerod Mayo has the second-highest Run Stop rate of all 4-3 outside linebackers with a 10.6 mark. If Houston is looking for a weakness in the Patriots’ run defense, targeting its rookies on the outside could be a start. Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower both rank in their lower half of their positions with 5.0 and 6.8 Run Stop Percentages, respectively.