Sunday divisional-playoffs preview: Tom Brady will lead potent Patriots offense to AFC title game | Shutdown Corner – Yahoo! Sports
Nice breakdown with a lot of mention of Football Outsiders’ metrics, which you’ll find a lot here as well.
The Texans defense and running game should keep things close, but as Phillips noted, the Patriots have too many weapons on offense to keep in check. Between Gronkowski and Hernandez, Welker and Lloyd, and the Patriots’ up-tempo, no-huddle approach, Sunday’s game could be the one where the Texans really feel the losses of inside linebackers Brian Cushing, Tim Dobbins and Daryl Sharpton, as well as nickel corner Brice McCain, to injury. Another X-factor could come on special teams, an area of the game where New England ranked fourth and Houston ranked dead last, according to Football Outsiders.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: AFC Divisional Round Preview
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: AFC Divisional Round Preview
Must read preview and one so dense you might need to print it out. Trust me it’s worth it.
Check out NE’s season DVOA from the season below, excellent overall consistency.
3TFO: Texans @ Patriots, AFC Divisional | ProFootballFocus.com
3TFO: Texans @ Patriots, AFC Divisional | ProFootballFocus.com
Dead on stuff in this one…
Midway through November we were asking ourselves What’s wrong with Vince Wilfork?, but the anchor in the middle of New England’s line has since upped his game. He ranks fourth among all defensive tackles this season with an 8.7 Run Stop Percentage. On the second level, Brandon Spikes leads all inside linebackers with a 14.0 run defense grade, and Jerod Mayo has the second-highest Run Stop rate of all 4-3 outside linebackers with a 10.6 mark. If Houston is looking for a weakness in the Patriots’ run defense, targeting its rookies on the outside could be a start. Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower both rank in their lower half of their positions with 5.0 and 6.8 Run Stop Percentages, respectively.
Aaron Hernandez & Rob Gronkowski – 2011 Sights & Sounds
Must unleash these two finally…
https://www.patspropaganda.com/jullie-anne-aaron-hernandez-rob-gronkowski-2/
It Is What It Is » Nuggetpalooza: Mining the stats before the Patriots vs. Texans playoff tilt
It Is What It Is » Nuggetpalooza: Mining the stats before the Patriots vs. Texans playoff tilt
Great nuggets throughout, as always… including this one:
New England’s defense forced 42 fumbles, that’s a fumble on 2.62% of opponent touches, and recovered 21 of them, all league highs this season and club records (easily) since they began tracking the stat in 1995. In those 18 seasons that they’ve tracked fumbles, only two defenses have forced more fumbles in a season (2002 Eagles and 2000 Ravens with 45), six have had more recoveries of opponent fumbles (led by the 2000 Ravens with 26), and the Patriots rank sixth in fumbles forced per opponent touch: 3.07% – Ravens, 2000 2.84% – Eagles, 2002 2.75% – Titans, 2000 2.72% – Giants, 2010 2.63% – Cardinals, 1995 2.62% – Patriots, 2012
Patriots-Texans: Vince Wilfork will be a tough test for Houston | Audibles – SI.com
Patriots-Texans: Vince Wilfork will be a tough test for Houston | Audibles – SI.com
Great read on Wilfork’s dominance against the Texans. Need another big day from big Vince.
The key to an improved day for Foster: blocking Vince Wilfork. It is much easier said than done. The massive defensive tackle was pegged as a Pro Bowl starter this season, and he has the ability to disrupt completely a team’s run game. Houston found that out first-hand earlier in the year. Wilfork’s interior presence is a major problem for the Texans, because their ground game relies on stretching the field wide and cutting back to space. Wilfork eliminates a lot of those openings.