PatsPropaganda

First off, I have to say I really hate the term “elite” when talking about quarterbacks. People get so fired up about who’s elite and who isn’t. It’s not like once you get to being “elite” you stay there. Some players have elite runs in the playoffs then never put it together again.

But Brady is elite, we all agree on that, so I’ll answer this. I could say 2004, because three Super Bowl runs with flawless performances, especially the dismantling of the Steelers says there’s no doubt about how epically good he was.

But he was surrounded by great teams then as well, especially on defense. So let’s say 2006. The cupboards were bare and yet he still threw for 3,529 yards and 24 touchdowns. It was also about that time that the Patriots defense went from a dominant one that could take control of a game, to one that was a little too old and slow. Brady really had to carry the team for the first time in his career, and he got them almost all the way to the Super Bowl with arguably one of the most untalented Patriots teams of the last decade.

When Brady got some real weapons in 2007 it showed just how good he had become. Before that he was a smart quarterback, but after 2006 he was a truly explosive one, and once he had truly great players around him he proved how good he really was. Before 2007, Manning had all the stats and Brady just won games with mistake-free precision. But after that it was clear that Brady was every bit as dangerous as Manning.

More on this next week once the vet defensive ends land, but so far I think it’s New England and Denver in an AFC supremacy arms race. Tier two has Houston, Baltimore, Indy, maybe Miami. But I think overall the AFC will be even more top-heavy than it was last year. Not that it really matters once the playoffs start.

To be honest I was more worried about the Bills last year. I think a lot of it will depend on the schedule, because Miami has a good defense that has given Brady problems. If the Pats see them early in the year and they’re still working out the new passing offense it could get interesting.

If I’m the Dolphins I want the Patriots in New England as early in the season as possible. Because that’s the game that no AFC East team has been able to win. Beating the Pats outside of Foxboro is one thing, but Brady hasn’t lost at home to an AFC East opponent in the regular season since the Jets in 2006, in the last game at Gillette Stadium with grass.

Until an AFC East team can beat the Patriots twice in one season New England has to remain the favorites because they’re so consistent outside the division.

I like the moves the Dolphins have made, but they really didn’t do much on offense against the Patriots defense last year. They were under 300 yards of total offense both games, and Tannehill was sacked a total of 10 times. So yeah, they added Mike Wallace, but really I thought Reggie Bush was a pretty good anti-Pats defense weapon, they just misused him.

With the Pats bringing back their whole defense, plus Adrian Wilson (at least), I’d still give them the edge. It will depend on how big of a jump Tannehill makes and how quickly the Patriots passing offense comes together. If both games are at the end of the season like they usually are, I think Pats are pretty much a lock.

It’s hard to really say anything definitively right now, because there will be at least 2-3 more WRs added and that could change the outlook. Of course right now, with just Amendola and Donald Jones it’s a little scary at the moment.

But ultimately Brady has always been known as a quarterback who finds open receivers. I know I write a lot about worrying if Brady can develop chemistry/trust with new guys not named Branch/Welker, but as long as they find guys who can get open, Brady will find them.

Right now I’m really looking at it like this… Brady has five years left, maybe 2-3 at peak level before he starts to drop off. We don’t need him and his WRs to be elite by September 2013. We need them to start clicking by next January, so there’s no question it will be a work in progress. 

But with the pieces in place I doubt the Patriots offense is going to suddenly stink. They’ll have their up and down moments, but in the long run they should be better set up than if they tried to ride Welker into the ground and keep hoping Brandon Lloyd would stop his catch and hit the deck routine.

It’s going to be a big camp for him, I’m sure the Patriots would love him to make a big jump and contribute at least as a designated pass rusher in sub-packages. It’s probably asking too much for him to compete with Ninkovich at LDE. But he’s certainly a player a lot of eyes will be on this summer.

Give me A, but history tells us that it would be a really stretch for the Pats offense to end up in the teens. The lowest they’ve been with Brady is 12th in 2003, and that was the only time they were out of the top 10. That includes the dreaded 2006 season (7th) everyone like to point to as when Brady had no weapons, and the Matt Cassel 2008 season (8th). 

The fact is that Brady and the coaches are too good for this to suddenly dip to an average offense regardless of who’s catching passes. And the Pats never had anyone like Gronkowski or Hernandez in 2006 either.

Ultimately I do believe that defenses win championships, and the Patriots have put enough pieces in place for them to finally ascend to a level of a defense that can win games, and not just hold on or require a turnover to preserve a victory. 

If the defense can continue to build on the success they had in the second half of last season, and add some final talent tweaks in a couple spots over the next month in free agency and the draft, they should definitely be headed toward a season in the top half of the league rankings.