To be honest I was more worried about the Bills last year. I think a lot of it will depend on the schedule, because Miami has a good defense that has given Brady problems. If the Pats see them early in the year and they’re still working out the new passing offense it could get interesting.
If I’m the Dolphins I want the Patriots in New England as early in the season as possible. Because that’s the game that no AFC East team has been able to win. Beating the Pats outside of Foxboro is one thing, but Brady hasn’t lost at home to an AFC East opponent in the regular season since the Jets in 2006, in the last game at Gillette Stadium with grass.
Until an AFC East team can beat the Patriots twice in one season New England has to remain the favorites because they’re so consistent outside the division.
I like the moves the Dolphins have made, but they really didn’t do much on offense against the Patriots defense last year. They were under 300 yards of total offense both games, and Tannehill was sacked a total of 10 times. So yeah, they added Mike Wallace, but really I thought Reggie Bush was a pretty good anti-Pats defense weapon, they just misused him.
With the Pats bringing back their whole defense, plus Adrian Wilson (at least), I’d still give them the edge. It will depend on how big of a jump Tannehill makes and how quickly the Patriots passing offense comes together. If both games are at the end of the season like they usually are, I think Pats are pretty much a lock.