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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: DVOA and PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: DVOA and PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

It was a short wait this week for the latest DVOA ratings to come out and there are some numbers that should make Pats fans feel a little better.

First, the Pats still have a 93.9% chance of winning the division, though their odds for each respective seed have fallen back a bit: 1st (5.3%), 2nd (30.5%), 3rd (32.2%), 4th (25.8%), 5th (0.1%), and 6th (3.6%).

If the Pats don’t beat Denver this weekend, their chances at a bye will fall even further.

As for the overall rankings we have:

Overall: 6th

Offense: 11th

  • Pass 14th
  • Rush 7th

Defense: 14th

  • vs. Pass: 13th
  • vs. Run: 19th
  • vs. #1 WR: 4th
  • vs. #2 WR: 32nd
  • vs. Other WR: 20th
  • vs. TE: 8th
  • vs. RB: 17th

Special Teams: 3rd

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Dennard is not expected to play Sunday against the Broncos, and it might be even longer than that, according to a source. The timing of the injury is difficult, as the Broncos rank first in points, total yards, passing yards and passing touchdowns.

The Blitz with Jeff Howe & Karen Guregian | Boston Herald

You weren’t expecting any good news today, were you?

https://www.patspropaganda.com/dennard-is-not-expected-to-play-sunday-against-the/

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But the 3rd & 1 at the 7 was just a terrible play call by McDaniels. After two power runs by Blount, they went with a Tank formation (2 TE’s, 2 RB’s) and split Aaron Dobson out wide, and threw the ball. So with all their skill guys healthy, they went pass with Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman and Shane Vereen… all guys with noses for the 1st down marker… on the sidelines in favor of Mathew Mulligan, Blount and James Develin, whom no one has to cover. Maybe it was a designed run. Maybe Brady audibled because Carolina loaded the box and it’s not on McD. All I know is that settling for 3 there was where the game was decided.

» Knee Jerk Reaction to Week 11: Pats vs Panthers Barstool Sports: Boston

Didn’t make enough of this third-down failure. Pats’ problems in short yardage continue.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/but-the-3rd-1-at-the-7-was-just-a-terrible-play/

Rules: Breaking Down the Final Play – Pats Pulpit

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Rules: Breaking Down the Final Play – Pats Pulpit

Nice work from Rich Hill breaking down the rulebook. To be honest I was kind of surprised there was any controversy. The Pats didn’t do enough to win the game, and any penalty on that last play would’ve been everything I hate about refs being over-involved in a result. 

Everyone who watches the Pats should’ve known they were going down the seam to Gronk on the last play and it was well-covered. I don’t want to watch an NFL where offenses can just throw it up and get a call that will decide a game.

A non-call wasn’t why the Pats lost, they lost because they couldn’t get off the field on third down. If they went an atrocious 50% on third down they might’ve won by 10-plus points. Instead the Panthers were 8-for-11 and Tom Brady had just 7 possessions all game.

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Don’t cry because we lost, smile that Gronk carried three Panth-enders into the end zone.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/dont-cry-because-we-lost-smile-that-gronk/