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Analysis

Will Danny Amendola Re-Structure Again?

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Could Danny Amendola be cut or traded?

PFT reported last night that Danny Amendola could be asked to restructure his contract for the second offseason in a row, and if he refuses he could be traded or cut. None of this is all that shocking. The fact is the Patriots overpaid for Amendola, thinking he’d be their Welker replacement, when they signed him in 2013 and have been forced to keep kicking the can down the road with his big pay days.

This year Amendola is due a $5 million base salary with a $6.8 million cap hit. If the Pats cut him they’ll have to take a $2.733 million cap hit.

Is this one year too early?

There are arguments on both sides of this issue. On one hand, Amendola has been a clutch slot receiver, coming through with numerous big catches in the last two seasons after a slow start in 2013 where he tore his groin in the first game of the season (but still fought through it to help the Pats win that game in Buffalo), but he’d miss the next four weeks. He’s missed only one game in the last two seasons, despite being banged up, especially last year when a knee issue really limited him late in the season.Danny Amendola Clutch Catch

If Amendola was being paid like a slot receiver/punt returner should be, there’d be little question whether or not the Pats would keep him. But he’s got the fifth-highest cap hit on the team and will be 31 in the fall. It’s reasonable to think he could start breaking down further in the next season or two, as the wear and tear is bound to catch up with him.

Also, 2015 made it clear that he’s not a viable backup for Julian Edelman in the starting lineup. He needs to remain as the slot receiver, with limited snaps and limited big hits. They played him 75 snaps against the Eagles on an already injured knee, he re-injured it two weeks later and had to managed for the rest of the season. What are the chances now that Amendola can put together an injury-free and highly productive season? The odds are falling with each passing year.

Still, Amendola is a warrior and the Pats would not have won Super Bowl 49 with his vital contributions. Not to mention so many clutch catches in clutch moments the last couple regular seasons. This is a tough one, because the Pats have just one other proven receiver on the team, but it’s seems entirely possible the Pats will decide to move on if Amendola won’t play ball on his contract again.

Patriots Trade Chandler Jones to Cardinals

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That didn’t take long. Shortly after I was laying out why Pats could trade Chandler Jones, the Patriots trade Chandler Jones to the Arizona Cardinals for guard Jonathan Cooper and a 2nd round pick. Cooper was the seventh-overall pick in the 2013 draft but had fallen out of favor in Arizona after getting sidelined with an injury.

The second round pick is a major addition to the Pats draft ammo, and gives them even more ability to climb up the draft board since they don’t have a first round pick. This also clears another $7 million from the Pats salary cap, taking them to the neighborhood of $17.6 million in space.

As for Jones, the writing was on the wall and it seems like one of the few times many could see a Patriots blockbuster move coming. Jabaal Sheard and Rob Ninkovich are the top two starters at defensive end, with second-year players Tre Flowers and Geneo Grissom in the mix to take the third rotational spot.

We also can’t rule out Chris Long, who makes a lot more sense now, or a significant draft pick from a deep defensive end class coming out of college.

Cooper + Scarnecchia = Exciting

Though Cooper fell down the depth chart in Arizona, he seems like the perfect kind of guard for the Patriots system. Here’s his bottom line scouting report from NFL.com:

Cooper, an extremely athletic left guard, racked up a number of all-conference awards during his four years starting, capping it off with a first-team All-American selection as a senior. He has the athleticism to play in a number of different schemes. Due to his ability to lead the way on runs and outstanding pass protection skills, he figured to be the first guard selected in the draft.

Now Cooper enters the Danta Scarnecchia school of offensive lineman-ing, an education that has transformed far less talented players into impact contributors. He’ll compete with second-year players Tre Jackson and Shaq Mason, and veteran Josh Klein for a starting spot.

It’s not hard to see why this move made sense on multiple levels. The Pats get a young and talented player at a spot of relative need, but also get a vital draft pick to help them this year. The extra cap space can be applied to players who are certainly needed long-term like Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Jabaal Sheard and Malcolm Butler.

Should the Patriots Trade Chandler Jones?

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It’s been mentioned quite a bit this offseason, and today’s piece from Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com lays the scenario out pretty well — should the Patriots trade Chandler Jones? If there’s anything this offseason made clear, any pass rusher with a heartbeat is getting paid through the roof these days, and Jones certainly has the surface numbers to easily put him out of the Patriots’ price range next offseason.

Jones has 36 sacks in his first four years, including a career-high 12.5 last season. For someone who doesn’t watch the games Jones appears on paper to be a force, but a closer look at those numbers certainly gives cause for concern. The playoffs are an easy place to start. Here are his stats:

Nothing really jumps off the page there, does it? The last three times the Patriots were eliminated from the postseason, Jones total stats are two tackles. That’s it.

Of course it’s not all about sacks. The Patriots ask their defensive ends to do a lot of different things. For instance in Super Bowl 49, containing Russell Wilson was a bigger key that sacking him, and Jones did a good job in that regard. I’m not going to make the argument that Jones isn’t a good player. He is, but he’s inconsistent and often invisible in the biggest games, and I don’t think he has the consistency or the desired demeanor the Patriots want when giving out long term deals.

Last year’s synthetic marijuana incident certainly didn’t help Jones’ cause, but it was still surprising to see Jabaal Sheard get more snaps than Jones in both playoff games. But it’s not a stretch to think Jones was passed on the depth chart for the playoffs and reduced to the sub-package pass rusher role even without the strange off-field incident during the playoff bye week.

Jones was miked up last year against the Redskins and I thought one particular pregame pep talk from Matt Patricia stuck out to me, summing up what I, and apparently the coaches, think about Chandler.

Patricia said “you’re a great player, you need to be great every week.” The other part was in essence ‘you’re too good not to be productive every week’.

Patriots In Control

The Patriots are in a good position with Jones regardless. He’ll be playing for his next contract this season and usually that adds up to career years for good players. So that’s a double edge sword. The Pats get a great season from an impact player but it will also be the final nail in the coffin for his days in New England. If he walks to a big free agent deal, the Pats still get a compensatory selection.

With the report of Chris Long visiting, it only puts a bigger spotlight on the defensive end position. Sign Long and you have plenty of depth to deal Jones. Not to mention how promising second-year players Tre Flowers and Geneo Grissom could take big steps forward this year. Even without Long, it’s not insane to think the Pats could ship Jones. They did it to Richard Seymour with even less depth behind him.

There’s much uncertainty at the defensive end spot beyond this year. Rob Ninkovich, Sheard and Jones are all in the last years of their deal. Sheard would be my priority. He plays the way the Patriots want their defensive ends to play, with a toughness that jumps off the tape.

I can’t say the same for Chandler Jones. He’s athletic and strong, and can get to the quarterback in spurts. But week in and week out I truly believe the Patriots want more out of him. If they were to move Jones this offseason, and it could happen all the way up until the week before the season opener, they’d have to have Long in the fold or believe that Grissom or Flowers is ready to step into a rotational third DE role.

But again, the Pats are in the driver’s seat. They might not have Jones long-term, but they can still hope to get some playoff production out of him for one last season before he moves on. Or they can jettison him now and turn him into a draft pick that will be one or two rounds higher than the compensatory selection they’d get in 2018.

For the right deal, they shouldn’t hesitate to move him now, but I think the real action will come the first week of September after Flowers or Grissom have proven themselves and other teams have needs due to injuries.

 

Stop by The Prop Shop for some great tees! 

To the Patriots Free Agency Whiners

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Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski celebrate a touchdown.

Why doesn’t every team win 12 games every year?

Another year of Patriots free agency, another year of the sad sack Patriots free agency whiners about their approach. You’d think after nine years of blogging about the team and being on social media so much that I’d be used to it. Or maybe that after 15 years of Patriots domination the whiners would be silenced a bit, but on they go, undeterred because the Pats didn’t go out and spend on a big name.

Here’s the misconception about free agency — it’s actually a benefit not to have to spend a billion dollars on a player who has never done anything for your team, without any guarantee that they will ever do anything for your team. We see it year in and year out. The shitty teams that can’t draft or can’t win enough to maintain any kind of stability have to go out and find talent, because they believe talent wins games. Or at the very least, they need to win games and win them quickly to keep their jobs.

I think the Patriots have proven that yes, you certainly need talent in some spots, especially quarterback, but teams win games, not talent. Look at the Colts last year. Talented quarterback. They go out and surround him with a spending spree of free agents and what happens? A couple injuries here and there, the new guys never click and everything else just falls apart, including that talented quarterback.

So while teams are out spending a ton of dough on guys who had one or two good (not even great) years for other teams under other circumstances, teams like the Patriots can focus their resources on the things that do win games — BUILDING A TEAM.

Patriots Free Agency Whiners Forget it’s About 1-53

Health is as big a factor in a Super Bowl winning season as just about anything else. The 2014 Patriots only had one significant injury loss — Jerod Mayo. The 2015 Broncos were largely healthy as well, except for the number father time did on Peyton Manning and his neck/arm/etc. What happens when that guy you’re paying $20 million a year gets hurt? Or has a bad year? The next man up is certainly making less than he should be, and is likely an after thought in the team-building equation.

Can that guy step in and do the job that Rob Ninkovich has done since coming over as a free agent afterthought in 2009? Or that Patrick Chung has done since his return as a free agent afterthought? Or Jabar Gaffney? Or Danny Woodhead? Or Mike Vrabel? Or Roman Phifer? Or Antowain Smith? Yes, the list goes on and on and the same people who could’ve cared less about those acquisitions at the time could care less about the same under-the-radar signings that are happening now.

How quickly Patriots free agency whiners forget Mike Vrabel was one of the best Patriots under-the-radar acquisitions.Players like those are why the Patriots can have an injury-riddled season like 2013 or 2015 and still not only win the division, but host a playoff game and go to the AFC Championship. Because they are a strong and deep team filled with 53 guys who all buy in, who all want it and who are all ready to step in and “do their job”.

It’s not a handful of highly-paid top end guys who are magically still playing their balls off even though their net worth is approaching $100 million, while surrounded by underpaid but over-performing and unbreakable back ups and role players.

I think a lot of spoiled Patriots fans lose sight of how special this run is. How hard it is to consistently win in the salary cap era. Not to mention when you’re doing it without almost ever having a draft pick in the top half of the first round, where all the special rookie talent is usually snapped up.

Some might want to put it all on Belichick and Brady, as if you could put 21 morons out there and they’d somehow figure out a way to pull out 12-win season after 12-win season. But that’s not the case.

And it goes back to Scott Pioli’s quote, “We’re building a team, not collecting talent.”

Or from Belichick himself, “This is a football team. It’s not a bunch of guys in the same jersey running around out there. This is a football team. And for 60 minutes you’re gonna have to deal with all of us and it’s gonna be a long night.”

Free agency really is for losers if you think you’re going to buy your way to year in and year out Super Bowl contention. Internal player development, drafting well and rounding out your depth with solid and under appreciated free agents is for winners.

Reflections on a Rival: Happy Trails, Peyton Manning

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A rivalry for the ages is over and even Patriots fans should appreciate Peyton. (AP Photo/ Charles Krupa)

As you might’ve heard already, Peyton Manning is retiring. It’s hard to imagine an NFL landscape without Manning, much less being a Patriots fan and knowing Manning will no longer be in the way in the AFC. Aside from all the Brady vs. Manning debate, Peyton was the ultimate rival and ended Tom Brady and the Patriots season more times than anyone else.

This isn’t going to be another Brady vs. Manning article, nor will it be one where we dive into all the allegations that surround Manning as he calls it quits. This is about tipping the cap to a rival who enhanced all of our football viewing experiences over the last 15-plus years.

The painful place to start with Manning are the six times he beat the Patriots, the most painful of which were the 2006, 2013 and 2015 AFC Championships. Then there’s the most infamous regular season loss of Belichick’s reign, the 4th-and-2 game. Of those, the 2006 AFC Championship and the 4th-and-2 game stand out the most.

In 2013, the decimated Pats were a shell of themselves in the AFC Championship, and in 2015 Manning was a shell of himself. Those weren’t defining Patriots vs. Peyton games. But 2006’s AFC Championship was one of those infamous Patriots dynasty games where I remember every single ebb and flow of the game, and the 2009 4th-and-2 game played out much the same way — Patriots get a big lead, Manning hits unstoppable mode and the Pats run out of gas right at the end. There aren’t many worse ways to lose a game, especially if it’s to go to the Super Bowl, but those two games embodied everything about what made Manning great, and a terrifying opponent to face.

Beating Manning was what defined the early days of the Patriots dynasty. In 2003 and 2004, Manning was lighting up the rest of the NFL, but it was the New England defense, a veteran squad perfectly in tune with Bill Belichick, that got the last laugh four times in those two seasons, including twice in the playoffs. Those were the years that established Brady-Manning, despite them meeting twice in 2001 to little fanfare.

Then came 2005, when the Patriots’ defense had started to come apart. That made it open season for Manning as he led the Colts to three-straight wins – including 2006’s regular season win in Foxboro, the last time Manning would beat Brady in New England. And after capturing his first Super Bowl in 2006, Brady-Manning/Patriots-Peyton truly became a rivalry.

Then came the Pats’ offensive retooling in 2007 that set the stage for another one of the best games in the Patriots recent history. Both teams were undefeated when they faced off in the middle of the season and the Pats would come from behind to knock Manning off in Indy, the last time they’d ever beat Peyton on the road.

Manning’s Bronco years saw Denver travel to New England three straight seasons from 2012-2014 and lose all three in epic fashion. In 2012 the Pats put up 250 rushing yards on the Broncos in a 31-21 win. In 2013, the Pats erased a 24-0 halftime deficit to win 34-31 in overtime. Finally, in 2014, the Patriots left no doubt, hammering the Broncos in all aspects 43-21.

It was that game in 2014 when I knew it might be last time to catch a Brady-Manning game. I met up before the game with Nick Stevens (aka Fitzy), George Kippenham (aka the “other” Pats guy”) and Jerry Thornton. Then we watched the Pats destroy Manning and the Broncos in a game that featured just about everything you could ask for. It was pretty much the perfect day and one I’ll never forget. We hoped at the time it would be the last ever Brady-Manning game, but we just had to settle for it being the last Brady win over Manning. I’ll take it.

As the venue shifted back to Denver, starting with the 2013 AFC Championship, things unfolded differently, culminating with two fluky games in 2015 that defined (and ended) the Patriots’ season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8bEE0X58Ss

For all the talk of the Brady-Manning rivalry, after 2007 all that really mattered was who was playing at home. In each game from that point the home team always seemed to get the bounces, or catch fire with unstoppable momentum at the key moments.

What will I remember most about facing a Peyton Manning team? That no lead, no matter how large, was ever safe. Manning always seemed to know exactly where to go with the ball and who to pick on. Bill Belichick got plenty of criticism trying to close the 4th-and-2 game out by going for it in his own territory, but that sums up facing Peyton Manning. Once he got a read on things it was near impossible to stop him.

The AFC just won’t be the same without Peyton Manning. No matter how he looked at the end of last season, just knowing that the Patriots won’t have to face him and all the storylines and attention the game would receive is both exciting and sad. Exciting because it’s one less thing to worry about on the way to the Super Bowl, but sad because we’ll never see two of the great QBs to ever play the game face off again.

He is one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game. I don’t care to convince anyone which quarterbacks were better or worse than him. He will always be a huge part of the Patriots history and his legacy is unavoidably enmeshed with Belichick and Brady’s.

The Pats had their moments vs. Manning, and he had his moments against them. Now, at the end of it all, it’s easy to say he made football better for even Patriots fans, whether they were beating him or losing to him. He gave you a million reasons to watch, to be nervous, to want to beat him, and almost every single game was an epic battle. Whether you loved or hated him, he reset the bar for NFL quarterback play and it was a privilege to watch him compete.

Re-setting the Patriots Offseason Positional Needs

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With yesterday’s release of Brandon LaFell and Scott Chandler it shakes things up a bit in terms of the immediate needs for the Patriots. Both were in significant roles last year (at least to start) but faded from view as the season wore on. Right after the end of the season this was how I viewed the Patriots needs:

  1. Tackle
  2. Early Down Running Back
  3. Wide Receiver
  4. Linebacker
  5. Cornerback
  6. Tight End
  7. Guard
  8. Defensive End
  9. Defensive Tackle

Roster Need Reset

Now let’s re-evaluate things a bit:

  1. Wide Receiver – I think Pats fans actually like having this as a top need because it gives them hope that maybe, just maybe, the Pats will finally get a DEEP THREAT!. With the release of LaFell the Pats have an immediate starting need for a wide receiver to primarily play the X spot on the outside. Ideally he’s 6’2″ or bigger, has decent deep speed and is a willing blocker in the run game. 2014 LaFell checked these boxes. 2015 LaFell did not. Not sure anyone is holding out any hope that Aaron Dobson suddenly get it so the cupboard is pretty bare. Previously I thought running back was a spot to spend a little dough on a free agent, but now I shift that to the receiver spot. There will be plenty of speculation about the Patriots having some crazy secret plan in place like bringing in Calvin Johnson. Maybe that’s the case. Or maybe the just go with someone like LaFell was, a castoff who didn’t quite click in another city. Mohmed Sanu won’t excite many people but he still seems to me like an intriguing fit who could play multiple roles in the offense.
  2. Earl Down Running Back – Jeff Howe reported last week that the Pats were interested in bringing back LeGarrette Blount, but I still think he needs to be paired with an explosive hard runner who can get things started. Maybe that role can go to a rookie. Or maybe they try someone like castoff Joique Bell. Still, this is a glaring hole and an important need for 2016.
  3. Tackle – This is a top need, but for the long-term. I think they have to dedicate a high round draft pick to an athletic tackle who can swing to both sides and replace Sebastian Vollmer as starter at right tackle in 2017.
  4. “F” Tight End – Looking for a move tight end can be fun because you don’t have to be as concerned about their blocking. Dwayne Allen formerly of the Colts is an interesting free agent option. This position is also tied to Danny Amendola‘s future. Without Amendola the Pats are really in a bind without a move tight end as well. Which way do they primarily plan on playing, with three receivers or two tight ends? Probably the least exciting option is bringing back Michael Hoomanawanui.
  5. Middle Linebacker – I think this need is best filled by a veteran who can play a two-down role. Stephen Tulloch is intriguing and I’d love to see what Demario Davis could do in the Pats’ system. There are also some interesting guys in the draft like Joshua Perry of Ohio State. Just not sure a rookie can fill this role with where the Pats are picking.
  6. Defensive Tackle – Bringing back Akiem Hicks would be a great start and they also have to decide about Alan Branch in the next few days as he has an option due. Those two are probably tied to each other. But there’s also the fact that there are a ton of great DT fits in the draft. Hoping for one of them without a first round pick might be a fantasy though.

As for Corner, Guard and Defensive End, I think they only really need depth moves as those positions. Bring back Tarrell Brown and see how Ryan Wendell‘s feeling, that would pretty much solidify things before the draft where young corners and guards are always picks.

Patriots 2016 Draft Fits Emerging

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Dont'a Hightower Patriots 2012 Draft Pick

Dont’a Hightower, one of the Patriots best draft picks.

In recent years I’ve been kind of burned out on the draft. It’s just so much speculation about an endless number of players, of which 10 might actually be taken by your team, and of those maybe two to five actually make an impact. Yes, there’s not much else to do during the offseason than looking for Patriots draft fits, but talking draft on twitter can be a full contact sport so I tend to keep my draft research and thoughts mostly to myself and really I think it serves me well to come to my own conclusions before I start comparing what I think to everyone else.

It’s even harder to really lock in on the draft before free agency even starts. What are needs right now might not be in a few weeks, or other areas where we think the Pats are set could suddenly become glaring needs with an unexpected release.

But this year I feel really good about the jump I’ve gotten on this year’s crop of prospects and already have a number of players who, regardless of need, are excellent fits for the Patriots.

The big issue I see with this year’s draft class is the depth of the defensive tackles and defensive ends. Neither are major areas of needs for the Patriots, but both are vital positions that you can really never have too much talent or depth at. If we’re still looking at the Patriots not drafting until the end of the second round, their potential pick will be extremely influenced by just how many of the DT and DEs are off the board.

And really, there’s so much talent there that if there’s a delay in the run on those players, I don’t think we can rule out taking a DT for the third-straight year, despite the needs elsewhere.

Patriots Draft Fits

The position that I’ll be most eagerly watching are the tackles. After the combine last week a number of players stood out with their athleticism and that’s just what I think the Patriots need. If I had to custom build a tackle for the Pats first pick it would be an athletic right tackle who can also play on the left side.

Jason Spriggs from Indiana is one to watch and hopefully he falls. He hit on all 10 of the Pats desired measurables per Doug Kyed of NESN. Only thing about him is that he might be destined for left tackle, and those guys go faster than those for the right side even though the difference has been slowly eroding.

An under the radar tackle is Willie Beavers of Western Michigan, who played the left side in college but has the traits to play just about anywhere on the line. Only knock for him is that he doesn’t quite have the ideal size, measuring in at 6’4″, but still weighs 324.

Another player who has jumped out at me a bit is a local kid, Boston College’s Justin Simmons. Yes, he had the best three-cone time and we know what that means to the Patriots, but I also think he’s a fascinating fit on the defense to develop in the Patrick Chung role. He has balance to play both free and strong safety, and though he’s a bit lanky he’s still a willing tackler. He also hit seven-of-ten desired measurables.

What’s most intriguing to me is his size at 6’2″. Being able to deal with bigger tight ends and slot receivers is becoming a key trait for strong safeties in the Pats system. Chung did an excellent job last year, but still struggled at times because he’s just not big enough to deal with guys who are 6’5″ all the time. Someone like Simmons would be an interesting tool to develop alongside Jordan Richards as the Pats look to the future at the position.