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A Way-Too-Early Patriots 53-Man Roster Projection

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Patriots Roster Projection

Like mock drafts in January, it’s way too early to legitimately project how things will shake out for the Patriots 53-man roster in September, but with so many draft picks once again and so much talent on this roster, it’s a good exercise to figure out where the tightest position battles will be.

Here’s an optimistic (and way too early) stab:

QB (3) T.Brady, J.Garoppolo, J.Brissett: No major surprise here, though if Brady sits the first four games and the Pats have a roster exemption for him, it will at least help avoid a painful cut elsewhere on the roster.

RB (5) D.Lewis, L.Blount, T.Gaffney, J.Develin, B.Bolden: I’m taking the optimistic route here with Gaffney, that he emerges and can take a significant early down role that I hoped would be filled in the draft. Lewis’ recovery timetable is a huge unknown. James White is my shocker cut, but if Lewis is healthy and Gaffney emerges I think White is just too one dimensional and never quite rose to the occasion last year, especially in the AFC Championship. Still, I’d bet they find a way to keep him, but for right here right now he’s hitting the bricks.

WR (6) J.Edelman, D.Amendola, C.Hogan, M.Mitchell, D.Lucien, M.Slater: Tough call here on Keyshawn Martin, who the Pats gave a new deal to last year, but I’d be much more excited to see Lucien sneak into that spot. Otherwise, this group is already looking better than last year. Aaron Dobson is finally put out to pasture.

TE (3) R.Gronkowski, M.Bennett, C.Harbor: The lack of a pure blocking tight end here is a bit concerning, but with Bennett in the mix it changes things because he can do it all. They can use one of their OL for the heavy sets if necessary. Crazy amount of talent at the top and Harbor can move around in a number of roles.

C (2) B.Stork, D.Andrews: Wouldn’t be opposed to trading one of these guys, preferably Andrews because of my Stork crush. Two very good young centers.

G (4) S.Mason, J.Kline, J.Thuney, J.Cooper: Again, taking an optimistic view with Cooper, that he re-finds the magic that made him a first round pick. Pencilling him in to start with Kline. Had to choose between Mason and Jackson, just liked Mason’s athleticism a bit more though his size continues to concern me a bit.

T (4) N.Solder, S.Vollmer, M. Cannon, L.Waddle: Could see Cannon getting cut if Waddle beats him out but for now keeping four for depth sake and I think Scarnecchia likes Cannon more than any of us. Fleming isn’t an easy cut, but a necessary one.

DE (4) R.Ninkovich, J.Sheard, C.Long, T.Flowers: Tough cut here of Geneo Grissom, I just like Flowers more and see him as a better physical fit at defensive end while Grissom seems too much of a tweener. Expecting Flowers to have a significant role even in the 4th string spot.

DT (4) M.Brown, T.Knighton, A.Branch, V.Valentine: Holy shit, look at the beef on this line! Feel good about these four. Brown should be the one DT in pure passing situations. Kearse/Kuhn/Vellano are easy cuts.

ILB(2) S.McClellin, J.Freeny: Thank the Hoodie Freeny has been bumped down the depth chart! McClellin will fit in well when the Pats are in their regular (fka “base”) defense, but also rotate in as he has a similar skill set to Hightower/Collins. Rookie Elandon Roberts isn’t an easy cut, and I’m interested to see if Bostic has anything in the tank now that he should be fully healthy.

OLB(2) J.Collins, D.Hightower: Two badass ninjas.

CB (5) M.Butler, L.Ryan, C.Jones, J.Coleman, D.Roberts: Gotta love this group and I’m very excited to get Roberts back into the mix. Wonder if they could use a vet since it’s such a young group, but all five are tough and can play.

SS (3) P.Chung, J.Richards, B.King: Richards’ role could increase this year with the departure of Tavon Wilson, both on special teams and on defense. King is an excellent special teamer and extremely under the radar for many casual fans. Chung just got extended again and could be in for a Pro Bowl-esque season.

FS (3) D.McCourty, D.Harmon, N.Ebner: Very good group, same kind of rotation with McCourty and Harmon as last year.

ST (3) S.Gostkowski, R.Allen, J.Cardona: Hopefully Cardona doesn’t have any Navy responsibilities to attend to. Otherwise rock solid group.

 

Hardest cuts: James White, Cameron Fleming, Tre Jackson, Geneo Grissom, Kamu Grugier-Hill.

Surprises: Tyler Gaffney, Darryl Roberts, Devin Lucien.
Make your own with Pats Picker and share in the comments if you’re not scared. It’s really, really tough at this point. But of course, injuries will make things a bit easier, unfortunately.

Patriots Won’t Overlook LaAdrian Waddle

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LaAdrian Waddle

In the days since the draft I’ve been lamenting the lack of depth and planning for the future at the tackle position, but as one commenter pointed out yesterday we might be overlooking LaAdrian Waddle.

Waddle was released by the Lions last season after two promising years with the team. He tore an ACL in December of 2014, missed all of training camp in 2015 and just wasn’t the same player when he returned, from MLive.com:

What made Waddle such a unique physical specimen when he came to the Lions was his towering frame, with deceivingly good athleticism for a man that big. His technique wasn’t always perfect, but he was just a hard man to get around.  The knee injury robbed him of that. Even once Waddle was healthy enough to return to the field, he found himself thinking rather than just playing.

The Patriots picked up Waddle and inserted him at left tackle against the Jets in Week 16 after Sebastian Vollmer was injured. He’d play just 37 offensive snaps before injuring his shoulder and didn’t appear again the rest of the season. Despite the limited look at Waddle, the Patriots re-signed him this offseason with a two-year deal.

It’s well-documented how an ACL injury can take a full year to feel completely healed and for the athlete to feel completely comfortable with it. The Lions didn’t give him much benefit of the doubt when he came back in Week 3 last season and wasn’t the same player. Well, in full disclosure Pro Football Focus had him ranked as their worst tackle prior to his release.

Still, you look at Waddle’s scouting report and this is the kind of guy I was craving to add this offseason and it looks like he was sitting under my nose the whole time.

His NFL.com scouting report strengths:

Height and extreme length are prototypical for the tackle position, and his foot quickness when in balance makes it very difficult for even the best sack-masters to get the corner. Thick arms that portend his upper-body strength, and also owns enough flexibility and girth in his lower half to anchor against bull rushes. Occasionally asked to go out to linebackers, shows agility to fit onto the block and uses his long arms to shield them from the play – though he can be out-quicked by second-level defenders and doesn’t always sustain. His strength and quickness helps him as a zone run blocker, as well.

I’ve been wrong to be dismissive of Waddle this offseason in looking at the Pats’ future at tackle. If he can regain the form he had his first two seasons with the Lions, Waddle could be exactly what the Pats need – an athletic swing tackle who can play both sides. He might even be in position to take over the right tackle spot next season. First he must get fully healthy, but the potential is certainly there.

Why Did Patriots Ignore Major Needs at Running Back and Tackle?

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The major personnel pieces should be in place now for the 2016 Patriots, something I’ve been simmering on for the last couple of days. Most disturbing to me is the two biggest areas I felt needed to be addressed this offseason (running back and offensive tackle) were basically ignored.

Now on the offensive line you’re left with basically one left tackle (Nate Solder) and a shitload of right tackles and interior swing guys. You can’t have starting-caliber backups at every position but going into a season with no one who can legitimately play left tackle behind Solder is scary.

This also means next season they’ll have to choose between giving new contracts to Sebastian Vollmer and/or Marcus Cannon, or acquiring a new player to start at right tackle. Look, if Solder stays healthy, things will be okay. They’re not exactly set for the future and there’s still big question marks surrounding how the right tackle spot will play out, but if the starters stay healthy this is an offensive line capable of winning a Super Bowl.

There is plenty of promise on the interior, where I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Patriots try to move Bryan Stork or David Andrews. Luke Joeckel, who could be available for trade, could make a lot of sense. But otherwise it’s impossible to see how the competition will play out this summer. Jonathan Cooper is probably the most talented of all the guards and there are plenty of pundits who think Joe Thuney has a lot to offer as well.

How will those two new guys compare to what we thought was a young and promising trio in Josh Kline, Tre Jackson and Shaq Mason last season? That’s at least four starter-quality players for two spots. Again, one of those could be trade bait, but I’m not sure any of them are all that appealing to an outside team in the kind of way Logan Mankins was.

Counting on the Return of Superman (Dion Lewis)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdZJk1xtU00

At running back the Pats will now enter camp with just three vets and one undrafted rookie who aren’t coming off a season-ending injury, and none of those healthy guys — Brandon Bolden, James White and Donald Brown — strike much fear in anyone out there. So what the running back position comes down to at this point is the full healthy return of Dion Lewis, who must also recapture his magical seven-plus games in 2015, when he came out of nowhere to suddenly look like Barry Sanders.

If Lewis is back to that form, it will also help LeGarrette Blount immensely in loosening up a defense and setting them up for their hammer/finisher. But as we saw last season, once the Pats lost Lewis things started to unravel on offense. Ideally I wanted to add another rookie pounder to this group. Someone who could take the early carries and loosen up the defense, while taking the heat off of Lewis and Blount.

James White had a couple flashes last season after Lewis went down, but I remain on the fence about him in the long term. And rookie DJ Foster, who played slot receiver last season, is more in the mold of a receiving back than a tough yardage grinder.

Maybe everyone at tackle and running back come back healthy and stay healthy all season and my fears will be unfounded. But if they don’t, these are critical areas that put immense pressure on Tom Brady and the passing game. The Patriots offense in the AFC Championship was one-dimensional and it nearly got Brady killed. That was my biggest takeaway from last season, yet the Patriots essentially stood pat this offseason at both of the positions where attrition caught up to them.

It’s hard not to overreact right now, but there’s still four months until the season starts. New players could still be added or familiar players could emerge as Dion Lewis did meteorically last season. Maybe Donald Brown can re-find the magic that made him a first round pick, or Tyler Gaffney finally stays healthy. A lot can happen, good or bad. Until the pads come on and we know for sure how everyone’s recovery went and how things fit together with the 2016 Pats you can’t panic.

Still, these are clearly the two areas to focus on as potential weak spots on the Patriots roster.

 

Is Tom Brady a Deflation Scheme Mastermind?

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I’m starting to come around on Tom Brady exhausting every available option in pursuit of his innocence in the Deflategate mess. Everyone’s sick of it? So what. Keep it in the news as it slowly convinces more and more of the masses what a massive hose job by the NFL it was. Still, there are plenty of emboldened folks out there convinced Tom Brady was a deflation scheme mastermind. I wonder what that really looks like, because even in trying to take off my Patriots-homer-pom-pom hat as Dan Shaugnessy suggested, I have trouble piecing together how a  Deflation Scheme Scenario would actually work.

These are the deflation scheme points that vex me:

1. Brady specifically directed Jastremski and McNally to secretly deflate the footballs after the refs checked them.

So Brady wanted the balls BELOW 12.5, which of course, was never actually said by anyone, but that’s the core assumption. After he meticulously chooses his gameballs, he’s fine with McNally stopping by a bathroom and haphazardly sticking a pin in all of them. The flatter the better? How low can the PSI before it starts affecting throws? Ever try to throw a flat football? Any benefit of a slightly softer ball will eventually be offset by the inaccuracy it causes.

Even if you buy the entirety of the Wells Report, and specifically the Exponent study, as fact, do you know how much air McNally let out of the balls in that bathroom? .4%  How is it even possible to let that little amount of air out, much less necessary?

And why of all games would anyone want flat footballs in a cold, rainy 2014 AFC Championship game? Secretly deflating the Colts balls, I’d get. But your own? Flatter footballs in the cold and rain? That makes no sense to me and if anything, I’d imagine Brady would want to kill McNally if he really did what the NFL surmises. That’s why it’s no wonder Brady played better with balls that were re-inflated.

Wouldn’t it have been even more fun if they re-measured the balls at the end of the game and holy shit, they’re below 12.5 again!!! How did the Patriots do it!?!?!

2.  Texts from McNally: calling self the Deflator, saying he’s not going to ESPN yet, “stress getting them done”, etc.

There’s no way around these texts and they’re the core evidence sited by any Low Information Deflategator, Michael Felger, Shaugnessy and all the rest of ’em. Without these texts there’s nothing to build any case at all.

But here’s the thing(s) they all want to ignore:

McNally Deflate TextJastremski’s texts to his fiancee, “Panda”, that said the balls were supposed to be at 13 PSI after the November 2014 Jets game? Why would he have any reason to lie about it to her? And clearly this was a big deal, and seemingly a novel problem from him to share it with his beloved Panda. If there was a Deflation scheme, this would’ve been a problem yes, but entirely McNally’s fault and probably somewhat expected if he failed to get the air out of them.

Or what about McNally’s text to Jastremski during the 2014 Packers game? McNally was in New Hampshire, texting Jastremski on the Green Bay sidelines to “deflate and give somebody that jkt”.

This at least signals to me that “deflate” was a slang term to them. Not saying I totally buy the Patriots’ explanation it was a weight loss thing, but they are using it in a ball busting way. And as anyone who has ever texted knows, it’s often a cavalcade of inside jokes, ball busting and slang.

You can’t accept the some texts as the foundation of your argument and then simply ignore the rest that contradict it, or at least provide a little more context.

The asking for swag and threats to blow the footballs up like “balloons” don’t really bother me. Anyone who’s ever been around a pro sports team knows shits getting signed and given away constantly, especially to part-time employees who aren’t getting paid shit. And as mundane as it seems, Jastremski and McNally’s entire professional relationship was about footballs. So yes, that’s what they joked about even if McNally was technically employed to assist the referees.

Let’s also remember this is absolutely everything Ted Wells could drum up. Just a few vague text messages that came months apart. If there was truly a living-breathing Deflation Scheme afoot I’d think there’d be more than there this. Especially after the November 2014 Jets game that McNally would have had to have screwed up by failing to Deflate.

3. Timeline?

I still don’t understand what the NFL’s time line is. All the texts and testimony about the Patriots and PSI go only back to the November 2014 Jets game. The “deflator” text came in May 2014. So on one hand the Wells Report is saying plans went into place in the fall, but are also implying that something “deflate-y” was going on before that as well.

But we’re not sure that Brady et al even knew what the exact PSI rules were prior to November 2014. From all the text messages and testimony that Jets game was significant and the first time Brady and Jastremski actually discussed PSI numbers.

So we’re to believe that Brady was just telling McNally: “Make sure they’re pretty flat? How flat? I don’t know, just stick that fucking needle in them and hold it there, a-one, a-two and then we’re good. You can have unlimited Uggs and autographs.” That’s what went down?

And again, Brady’s supposed to totally trust Jim McNally, the gameday employee, to execute this plan with his carefully selected balls? That’s what the Deflation Scheme-ists believe? It does seem exciting and sinister but I can’t not see the holes in it.

 

What if Jastremski ordered the code red?

This is a scenario where I can almost buy a Deflation scheme: Jastremski telling McNally to make sure the balls were never too over-inflated, even if he has to let a little air out of them with a secret needle. McNally gets favored nation status with the Brady swag and they make sure Tom never knows the gameday employee is messing with his precious game balls.

Jastremski knows Tom likes them a little flatter and knows the refs often mess with them so he employs McNally to apply any means necessary, especially if the ref puts air into them during his review. They start at 12.5, then McNally makes sure they at least stay there, maybe get even lower. Every (home) game. (McNally doesn’t work on the road)

So this Code Red scenario doesn’t matchup with Jastremski’s 13 PSI Panda text, but it takes Brady out of the equation and at least makes the other texts matchup. But it also makes the November 2014 Jets game solely a major fuck up by McNally, by failure to deflate after the ref’s over-inflate. Seems like that kind of mess up would certainly be worthy of some “WTF Bird, U didnt dflt!” texts, but there were none of those.

So yeah, this theory doesn’t exactly work either.

Jastremski ordering the code red is as close as I can get to believing the Deflation Scheme theory. I just can’t buy that Brady knew and trusted McNally to actually deflate footballs every (home) game, no matter the conditions. For someone so particular about the feel of his balls, I can’t imagine Brady thought McNally pinning the balls gave him a consistent known advantage. It’s far too haphazard and it seems like there’s a far great chance of screwing up the balls that Brady already picked out.

But what it all comes back to is why? Why would Tom Brady even want to deflate his footballs below the legal limit? There are those who would have you believe slightly deflated balls are never dropped nor fumbled, but you’d certainly never want an even flatter ball in a cold and wet weather game.

Even I can admit the Wells Report has those text messages from McNally which can easily fit into a Deflation Scheme theory. But the other text messages muddy those waters just enough to add doubt that it’s as easily cut and dry as some believe it is. I know the Patriots are always looking for an edge, even if it’s a gray area of the rule book, but a deflation scheme seems like it has just as much potential to have adverse effects as it does giving any kind of advantage.

Of course the Deflation Scheme-ists won’t try to explain any of this. Those few texts from McNally (and not the other texts) are enough for them to buy an entire plot, despite zero hard evidence of anything happening in this game or any other game. Despite Tom Brady being the only person in this whole charade to testify under oath.

None of this will ever add up to me, and that’s why I continue to truly believe there never was a deflation scheme.

Tom Brady’s Deflategate Suspension Reinstated

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Tom Brady's Deflategate SuspensionThe US Second Court of Appeals reinstated Tom Brady’s Deflategate suspension today and this could be the end of the line for Brady and the NFLPA’s chances at appealing it, meaning the Pats could have Jimmy Garoppolo under center to start the 2016 season.

Essentially this court ruled 2-1 that Roger Goodell has the power to do whatever he wants because of the powers the NFLPA gave him in the latest CBA. We’re so far past this being actually about what actually happened with the balls during the 2014 AFC Championship Game, and here we sit, a year-and-a-half later with judges going back and forth ruling just what exactly the NFL can do to its players.

The NFLPA is weighing their options, which include trying to take this to the Supreme Court, but that could be a long shot. Now, it might just be in the best interest of everyone to drop it. This kills me to say it. The NFL played this whole investigation to win by any means necessary from the get-go. It was never about the truth and yes, it’s infuriating that they can stack the deck at every turn, leak lies to the media to support their version of the events and shape the narrative they want, then finally levy an unprecedented punishment at their whim.

Winnable Games in September

As I’ve said all along the real damage is the first round pick the Patriots won’t have this Thursday. Clearly that ship has sailed regardless, and with four picks in the first two rounds, I still think the Pats can overcome that loss of draft capital.

What are the real potential ramifications if Brady does sit the first four games: @ Cardinals, vs. Dolphins, vs. Texans, and vs. Bills?

Obviously Jimmy Garoppolo is now entering year three and has shown enough potential and should have a grasp of the offense that the Patriots should not be in a death spiral, especially getting the two most favorable divisional games on the schedule, though neither are certain victories. If those games were on the road in Miami and Buffalo, things might be a little different.

With Garoppolo, the Pats would have to scratch and claw in all four of those games, but I’d expect 2-2 at worst.

The entire Patriots starting defense except for Chandler Jones returns and they also still have the most talented offensive weapon on the field for those first four games – Rob Gronkowski, not to mention Julian Edelman, Martellus Bennett, Danny Amendola and maybe even Dion Lewis working back into the mix. Even without Brady pulling the trigger, there’s a ton of talent all over this roster, and let’s remember that even with Brady, the Pats have seen their share of 2-2 starts.

The point is, the first four games of the season are not going to make or break the Pats’ 2016 campaign.

Part of me almost welcomes the challenge. Maybe that’s just due to being so sick of Deflategate and lawyers and judges that I just want to stop having to think and blog about them. But it’s also like when I used to play season after season of Madden on franchise mode and it got to the point where it was no longer challenging so I’d always trade my best players away to league rivals to at least make things interesting.

So Jimmy G is very likely going to get a shot to show what he can do and I can’t imagine Brady feels great about that on top of having the suspension reinstated.

We can only hope that someday the NFL gets what’s coming to them and that some more truths from behind the scenes come out. But at this point I’m so ready to put Deflategate finally behind us, even if it means giving Tom a September break.

Now back to draft analysis to cleanse the pallet…

 

Shea McClellin’s Position Fit in Patriots Free Agency 2016

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Shea McClellin is the Patriots’ highest paid free agent acquisition on defense this offseason at three years, $9,050,000. We can safely assume that he will play a significant role in the team’s long term plans. The most buzzing news around the media circuit right now regarding NFL player props is how big his role with the Pats will be. He was largely considered a bust after being selected in the first round of the 2012 draft when he failed to live up to expectations. He was the 19th overall pick. However, he restored some hope for the Boise State product’s future when he moved to inside linebacker.

McClellin’s athleticism and versatility were perfect for his new role off the line, but he and the Bears both believed that a fresh start is essential for both sides. Because of this, the Monsters of the Midway didn’t agree to pick up his fifth year option. According to them, it was for McLellin’s own good and his best interest. They believed that right from the start Chicago wasn’t the most appropriate fit for him. Some people consider him to be Rob Ninkovich‘s successor because of his versatility as a defender. However, based on the observations from his first four years in the NFL, many believe that this future looks most promising as an inside linebacker.

Patriots sign Shea McClellinSTRUGGLING ON THE DEFENSIVE END

McClellin struggled during his first few years playing for Chicago. This was despite him having a productive college career. He wasn’t able to portray the balance and agility required to bend around the edge. He also didn’t have the capacity to use his lower body power to perform exceptionally. He didn’t have violent hands nor a wide range of moves in his arsenal. Additionally, since the very beginning McClellin was never the best in being an edge defender. He lacked the appropriate size which made him average in the trenches. The evidence is shown clearly by his lack of NFL strength and caliber power which are required for the position. However, if he’s not asked to play the edge full-time, McClellin’s experience as a pass rusher and in space only gives the Patriots more options how to deploy him in New England.

UNTAPPED POTENTIAL AS A LINEBACKER

McClellin’s value significantly increased when he moved to the inside linebacker in the Windy City. However, his struggles were still evident. He was left exposed because Chicago lacked the necessary double team-demanding defensive linemen. He struggled in shedding blocks from offensive linemen. He had no choice but to chase them down from behind or tackle ball carriers when they have already burst through the line. He also had troubles regarding pass defense. He would occasionally pass runners off for no particular person. Sometimes, he fails to gain the appropriate depth in his zone drops. McClellin also has the tendency to be aggressively engulfed in play action. He usually makes huge opening passage windows in the field. Thankfully for the Patriots fans, his position as a linebacker suits him well. He is considered to be an effective blitzer and a sound tackler. In his past games, he runs well and gives quick reactions. He was where he needed to be without forgetting his main responsibility. In general, he did well in avoiding cut blocks from linemen.

In New England, with some monstrous linemen like Alan Branch and Terrence Knighton in front of him, McLellin should have less oncoming linemen to deal with and he should flourish with his speed.

HIS CONTRIBUTIONS TO NEW ENGLAND

McClellin’s lack of NFL level physical prowess can be mitigated in New England’s scheme. It is understandable why Belichick and the rest of the Patriots personnel saw potential in him. He is an amazing athlete who has high football IQ. Regarding his instincts, it can be improved by coaching sessions and more exposure to play time.  Looking at his past experiences with Chicago, it is safe to assume that McClellin will be the third linebacker for the Patriots and can be mixed and matched with Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins in various  ways. His presence in the defense will be the best position for him to make use of his talents. He could potentially be a great gem among Belinchik’s list of reclamation projects.

New England Patriots 2016 Schedule

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Patriots 2016 Schedule

The NFL released the 2016 schedule today and the Patriots are in for a tough schedule against some of the best teams in the league from both conferences. Here’s a game-by-game breakdown.

Week 1:  Sunday, 9/11, 8:30pm at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday Night Football): The Pats open the season with a return to the site of their Super Bowl 49 win to take on the tough Cardinals in a game that could’ve been a Super Bowl matchup last year. The Cardinals have all the pieces needed to contend again, plus Chandler Jones now, and, playing at home, they should come at the Patriots full-force on both sides of the ball. This is a fascinating matchup between two of the most forward-thinking and innovative teams in the league. What it might ultimately boil down to is how well Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald are able to keep last year’s magic going. At least the magic that was happening before the playoffs.

Week 2: Sunday, 9/18, 1pm vs. Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are once again in transition, firing Joe Philbin this offseason and replacing him with Adam Gase. Miami’s defensive line is once against fearsome, but can they put it all together? That’s always the question. They showed good fight in beating the Patriots in Week 17 last year. Miami always seems to be a tough place to play for the Pats, even when they don’t have great season. Thank Hoodie this one isn’t in Miami and we’re saving that trip for the end of the season when heat won’t be a factor.

Week 3: Thursday, 9/22, 8:25pm vs. Houston Texans: A quick turnaround in Week 3 gives the Pats an early Thursday night game, which at this point in the season is pretty manageable. With Brock Osweiler in the mix, the Texans now have (or at least hope to have) the piece they were missing last year —  a legit quarterback. The talent on the Texans’ roster is obvious, led by JJ Watt and DeAndre Hopkins. Coming to New England will be a huge test for the young Texans, one that they surely understand and are likely to embrace. The Pats have had their way with Houston ever since losing to them in 2009 (and losing Wes Welker in the process), this will be a chance for Houston to make a statement and step into the realm of the AFC contenders. Will the Texans be finding their stride this early in the season? I’m not convinced.

Week 4:  Sunday, 10/2, 1pm, vs. Buffalo Bills: It’s a love/hate relationship with Rex Ryan. The Pats’ games with him are always entertaining, at least off the field before the game begins. The Bills will be looking for Tyrod Taylor to build on a breakout 2015 season and if he can get a full season from stud receiver Sammy Watkins that will certainly help. The Bills are scrappy and have the pieces to knock off the Pats. But having the pieces and doing it, especially in New England, are two hugely different things.

Week 5: Sunday, 10/9 at 1pm at Cleveland Browns: The Browns didn’t look much better on paper when they upset the Pats in Cleveland in 2010, but it’s hard to see this team hanging with this Patriots team that is vastly more talented than they were in 2010. Cleveland always is a special place for Bill Belichick and I’m sure he’d like to get that last loss off his mind.

Week 6: Sunday, 10/16 at 1pm vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Early last season it seemed like the Pats and Bengals were on a collision course in the AFC. Then Andy Dalton got hurt, the Bengals faded in the standings and blew a playoff win over the Steelers by imploding. With the departures of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, the Bengals will have a different look on offense this year and likely take a step backwards. Still, their defense has talent. The Bengals squeaked out a win over the Pats in 2013, but outside of that rain-soaked game, the Pats have handled them easily.

Week 7: Sunday, 10/23 4:25pm at Pittsburgh Steelers: With the changes in Denver, it seems like only Pittsburgh is left of veteran teams that can challenge the Patriots’ AFC supremacy. Martavis Bryant’s suspension looms large, but the Steelers should have LeVeon Bell back in the mix, testing the Patriots sometimes suspect run defense. Malcolm Butler gets another shot at covering Antonio Brown — that should be an interesting matchup to watch to see if the young corner has developed his game since the 2015 opener.

Week 8: Sunday, 10/30 at 1pm at Buffalo Bills: Always one of the best atmosphere’s in football, the Pats travel to see Rex and the Bills again before their bye week.

Week 9: BYE – After last year’s early week four bye week, injuries decimated the Patriots and they never got a chance to catch their breath. This year it’s the ideal scenario, a late bye week right in the middle of the season to let the team re-group and refocus for the stretch run.

Week 10: Sunday 11/13 8:30pm vs. Seattle Seahawks (Sunday Night Football): A rematch of Super Bowl 49, this should be a fantastic game against two teams who have seen little dropoff since they last met in Arizona. The Seahawks haven’t been to New England since 2004, with the Pats going 1-1 in Seattle, winning in 2008 behind Matt Cassel and blowing a lead and losing in 2012. Can the Seahawks be the same team without Marshawn Lynch? Will Jimmy Graham make more of an impact in year two? Can the Seahawks figure out what made Tom Brady unstoppable against their defense at the end of Super Bowl 49? So many interesting matchups between two great teams. The Pats have an extra week to prepare and that usually helps though doesn’t ensure a win.

Week 11: Sunday, 11/20 4:25pm at San Francisco 49ers: Tom Brady finally gets a chance to play near his hometown after missing out in 2008’s regular season and not making it to the Super Bowl in San Fran last year. The 49ers are obviously in major transition and this figures to be one of the few easy matchups for the Pats in 2016. Could the long travel set them up for a letdown? That might be the 49ers only chance.

Week 12: Sunday 11/27 8:30pm at New York Jets (Sunday Night Football): The Pats went 1-1 against the Jets last season and both games were tight contests. There was no dropoff in the transition from Rex Ryan to Todd Bowles. The Jets always play the Pats hard and though there’s plenty still up in the air with this Jets’ team, they should be ready to attack the Patriots once again. Unless of course they manage to lose Ryan Fitzpatrick and are stuck with Geno Smith or someone worse.

Week 13: Sunday 12/4 at 1pm vs. Los Angeles Rams: The Rams have plenty of talent on defense and are likely to have first overall pick Carson Wentz or Jared Goff at quarterback with not much around him to work with other than running back Todd Gurley. This game will have special meaning for Chris Long and he should be getting after Wentz/Goff all afternoon. Aaron Donald against the Patriots’ interior offensive line will be a spot to watch. He can singlehandedly destroy an offensive gameplan.

Week 14: Monday 12/12 at 8:30pm vs. Baltimore Ravens (Monday Night Football): The Pats didn’t see the Ravens last season. Baltimore might’ve been the only team hit harder by injuries in the league, but they should be reloaded and ready to contend in the AFC once again in 2016. Regardless of how the rest of the offseason shakes out, the Ravens almost always give the Pats a hard time. As always, this is a must-watch game, and at this point in the season, this could be one with major playoff implications.

Week 15: Sunday, 12/18 4:25pm at Denver Broncos: This is probably the game most of the Patriots and their fans are circling out of the gate with the Pats having their season ended there for the second time in three years, and the third time overall for Brady and Belichick. The Broncos are suddenly a team in transition, losing both their top two quarterbacks along with significant pieces on defense like Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan. Despite these changes, a win in Denver would do a lot for this Patriots team mentally by getting them over the hump that kept the from playing in the last three-straight Super Bowls.

Week 16: Saturday, December 24th 1pm, vs. New York Jets: A Christmas Eve special against the Jets! The season ends with the same opponents as last year only this time they’ll get the Jets in Foxboro. As always it’s hard to tell how meaningful these games will be. Last year they lost both of the them and failed to hold homefield advantage that likely cost them a shot in the Super Bowl. But no one plays the Pats harder than the Jets and no matter what the records or what’s at stake, this will be a close one.

Week 17: Sunday 1/1 1pm at Miami Dolphins: The same ender as last year that saw the Pats lose to Miami and almost lost Tom Brady during a scary sack. With a first-year head coach it’s unlikely Miami is in playoff contention at this point. Still after last year we can’t take anything for granted. But this will be a nice warm way to end the season as long as it doesn’t cost the Pats a place in the standings or any injuries.

Patriots 2016 Schedule Analysis

Here’s what jumps out to me on the schedule:

  • Perfect bye week – always where I look first, you can’t get any better that the bye week right in the middle of the season.
  • Three Straight vs. AFC North – Weeks Five through Seven figure to challenge the Pats physically, going up against three traditionally physical teams in the Browns, Bengals and Steelers.
  • Ravens/Broncos Back-To-Back: The Pats playoff positioning will be decided with these two huge games in early December. Of course the Broncos will be a different team this year and by that point maybe even out of contention. Still, those are the two biggest Patriot rivals outside the division at this point.
  • No Brutality: Generally the schedule is pretty well spread out. There’s no brutal travel as both west coast-ish trips are at opposite ends of the schedule.
  • Denver game might be meaningless: And I’m fine with that. Maybe we can put the final nail in Mark Sanchez’s coffin.
  • Love the Start: Maybe an ideal start to the season with a great (but low pressure) opener in Arizona, followed by three home games that should all be very winnable. The real problems start with Cinci and Pitt in October but…
  • If Brady is suspended the first four games: (which I don’t think he will be but still…) There are two home divisional games which in my book are always must-win. Imagine Garoppolo losing those games setting things up for a tight AFC East divisional race all year, which would then mean Brady has to win in Buffalo, New York and Miami later in the season.
  • Primetime Games: Three Sunday Night games (Cardinals, Seahawks and Jets) and one Monday Night game (Ravens). This seems like a low number of national games for the Pats. Maybe it will help them stay under the radar a bit? Nah.