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Analysis

What does Cassel’s 2008 mean for Garoppolo?

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Cassel 2008

Cassel celebrates a third quarter touchdown pass during their 17-10 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Sunday, Sept. 7, 2008. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

One of the common refrains you’ll hear with Tom Brady potentially sitting the first four games of the 2016 season is “well Matt Cassel took the Pats to 11-5 in 2008, so Jimmy Garoppolo will be fine!” I agree to an extent, but I don’t think it’s that cut and dry and it’s worth taking putting that season into context and how different things will be in 2016.

We all remember that fateful opening game in 2008. The Pats were in white jerseys at home. Like Belichick’s SB42 way-too-short cutoff red hoodie something seemed off from the start. Then there were the big GU patches to honor Gene Upshaw that would forever make this game instantly recognizable. Brady hadn’t played at all in the preseason and Matt Cassel looked terrifyingly awful.

When Brady went down after Bernard Pollard dove into his knees then limped off the field, we knew it wasn’t good. Anyone who had watched the preseason thought we were dead meat with Cassel. But Cassel managed to put together a solid season, completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 3693 yards with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. That included two fourth quarter comebacks and two game-winning drives.

But the problem, as Bill Belichick said himself in his episode of A Football Life, was that the Patriots could not beat the good teams in the AFC. Their only win over an AFC playoff team was in Miami, in a Wildcat revenge game. They lost to the Steelers, Chargers and Colts, the only three teams outside their division that they faced with winning records, not including a 9-7 Cardinals team that never got off the bus in Foxboro. They feasted on the terrible AFC and NFC West divisions.

Had the Patriots faced a more daunting schedule, we likely wouldn’t have the 11-5 argument to make.

Still, Cassel did far better than anyone would’ve expected based on his preseason. He had a veteran cast of weapons around him including Wes Welker in his prime, Randy Moss and Jabar Gaffney. The defense however was at the end of the line. 2008 was their final gasp before the full turnover began the next offseason. Had Brady stayed healthy this probably would’ve been their downfall.

The 2016 Patriots are a little different. While they have a lot of veterans in place on offense, their defense is just hitting its prime. That’s what stands out to me most. The 2008 defense was not one that could singlehandedly win games. The 2016 should be.

Garoppolo also seems a far better fit for the Patriots’ offense at this stage. Simply put, he’s more talented than Cassel and his quick release should fit what the Patriots do with Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett extremely well. He also has some of the athleticism that Cassel displayed which gave teams used to facing the statue-esque Brady a new twist.

Garoppolo’s first TD pass.

Belichick and Josh McDaniels had to adjust on the fly when Brady went down. Now they have an entire training camp to cater the offense to Garoppolo’s strengths. This is vital because 2016’s schedule is far more daunting than 2008’s was. This is why the comparison is a hard one to make. There are six 2015 playoff teams on the docket this year, including two (Cardinals and Texans) which Garoppolo would have to face.

And the other two matchups against Miami and Buffalo feature defenses that would push even Brady to the limit. Luckily three of the first four are at home. That counts for a lot against defenses that love to blitz.

Garoppolo should be ready for this. Most quarterbacks are thrust into the fire long before they’ve had a chance to apprentice for two seasons under a Hall of Fame quarterback. And if the Patriots are ever going to be able to get something for Garoppolo, now is the time to showcase him.

Cassel’s 2008 has some similarities, but he was a less-talented player facing less-talented teams. He performed as you’d expect a Belichick-prepared player would, and probably would’ve made some noise in the playoffs had the Jets just beaten the Dolphins in Week 17, allowing the Pats in.

It’s a tall order for Garoppolo facing four very good defenses, but should be better prepared than Cassel was with all this time to prepare. I have no doubt Belichick will have Garoppolo ready to go with a plan that suits his strengths, which just happen to be very similar strengths to Brady’s.

And in the long run, getting a look at Garoppolo now is really what’s best for the Patriots organization.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KvrEZOaR6Q

Will the Black Unicorn mean the return of the 1,000 yard Rusher?

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That’s idiotic, you say, the Patriots haven’t had a 1,000 yard rusher in 4 years, that’s not how their offense functions. BB and McDaniels never feed the rock to an RB enough for that to happen and the short passing game is essentially the running game. The additions they made in their offense (Hogan, Bennett, Washington, Lewis back from ACL) are in the passing game not rushing. And for God’s sakes, the offensive line was atrocious last year, they can’t put on Sunblock, let alone run block (you’re right that was a lazy joke). And now Jimmy G is starting, they’ll load up the box. You’re a dickhead, Conway.

All of those things can be true and there will still be a 1,000-yard rusher on the team.

A bit of history: the last time the Patriots had a 1,000-yard rusher was 2012 with current Detroit Lion and failed Jets experiment, Steven Ridley. Before that, the last 1,000-yard rusher was in 2010 with out-of-the-league Benjarvus Green Ellis. How did those two deadbeats gain 1,000 yards. I’ll give you a hint: it rhymes with “Baron Fernandez and Slob Bonks-out-see”.

That’s right it’s the return of the 2-tight end sets with 2 elite tight ends!

At least on paper, the “Bennett and Gronk” 2 TE set has a fair chance of being better than “Hernandez and Gronk“ (i.e. the most-efficient offense in NFL history according to DVOA). But even if it doesn’t match those levels, it all but guarantees that the Pats running attack will be elite. With Gronk and the Black Unicorn (best nickname in the NFL), the Pats will have dynamic playmakers that also happen to be complete and total football players. They can run block, pass block and run precise routes. BB favorites. Also this creates the perfect set of training wheels for Garropolo.

The reason why this is so important is Garropolo now has options at the line of scrimmage, lots and lots of options. For obvious reasons, two-TE sets with two good-to-great tight ends create more offensive mismatches than any other formation. You can leave both in and run with seven blockers or you can send them both out and have essentially a 4/5 WR set, or you can leave one in to block, send one out on a seam route. This forces a huge decision for defenses pre-snap because they have to declare how they’re going to defend the match-up with their on-field personnel 15 or so seconds before the play begins or risk an incredible mismatch.

Tom Brady eats this type of fear like dripping kale Froyo, Jimmy will eat them like deep dish pizza (he’s from Illinois). And because NFL coaches are a bunch of risk-averse checkers players, they will show their hand and likely bring in safety help.

An extra safety sprints on the field, then another. Very few safeties in the league can handle Gronk or Bennett one-on-one in run blocking. Or if a bolder coach, like Rex decides to leave an extra linebacker on the field to try to maintain some strength against the run, Brady and Garropolo have options: run the ball away from the linebacker, play action to freeze him, or attack him with one of the 20 quick release receivers currently on the roster. And if defenses actually show respect for the run and leave two extra linebackers on the field, Brady and even Garropolo will eat and eat well. Hell, even, Tim Tebow would eat well if he could hit Buzzards Bay.

The last concern is the O-line. 2012 had Solder and Vollmer at the Tackle spots (sound familiar?), Mankins at LG was an upgrade over whoever takes over, but Wendell and Connolly at C and RG are both downgrades to Stork or Andrews and the crew at RG. Scar’s back and the team will run block well. But the truth is that defenses will be so worried about getting burned that running lanes should amply open up. Scar will be declared a genius and he is, but not because of how well the Pats run this season, that will all be because of Bennett’s addition.

So all of this boils down to the question: who gets those touches. Who better to follow in the footsteps of Green Ellis and Ridley than LeGarrette Blount? In fact, that’s the kind of runner he is, he will have a hole at the line of scrimmage and we all know he has straight line speed that can take it 50 yards. Talk about hot takes: LaGarrette Blount on the docket for a cool g.

A few Residual notes: a.) 25.7% of Green Ellis’ 3,914 career yards came during the ’10 campaign! #FeelTheBenj!

b.) Steven Ridley has rushed for 2,907 yards in his career. He gained 1263 in 2012. 43% of his career happened that year.

c.) If Isaiah Crowell becomes available, and by all accounts he will, the Pats should pounce. He’s a perfect compliment to their RBs and would allow them to move on from Blount. He’d likely have 1,500 All purpose as a competent receiver as well.

1st POST MEA CULPA: I’d like to apologize to my family. I had a goal to quit the NFL and I fell off the wagon, barely made it through training camp last year, Goddammit I was right back in the mix to hear Mike Tomlin bitch about communications systems. Helped that TB beat Goodell in court. I love football and hate the NFL. Anyway, I’m back I understand that makes me some kind of hypocrite, but I’m good with it, I hope you are too. Gonna be a great season! And now we get to evaluate Jimmy.

Just more fuel to Brady’s fire.

A Look Back at the Patriots Silent Snap

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When we last left our beloved Patriots, this is what we were left to chew on for 7 months:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFFZws3Apbo

Some of the plays made here can be attributed to this fact: Von Miller was the second overall pick in the draft in 2011. Many players live up to the expectations of being a high draft pick. Many other players do not. Some, like Von Miller, end up good enough that in hindsight that even using #1 overall pick seems like a steal. The interception and the open field tackles that Miller made throughout the game speak for themselves.

His major effect, though, came through rushing the passer. He appeared to be as dialed in as any single top-tier pass rusher the Patriots have ever faced in a big game…and there have been many. Dwight Freeney, Julius Peppers, Justin Tuck/Jason Pierre-Paul/Michael Strahan, Michael Bennett/Cliff Avril/Bruce Irvin, Terrell Suggs, JJ Watt, Jason Taylor…some had great games, some were completely neutralized, and again…there was Von Miller.

In the following days, several writers and radio hosts attempted figure out what went wrong (many of them simply blaming the entire game on Marcus Cannon), with the most brief but most likely accurate assessment coming from a Matt Light interview on WAAF:

“[Denver] is a horrible place to go play, especially in that circumstance,” he said. “You’ve got the best defense in the league. You’re in their place. And you don’t practice a snap count? It blows my mind that, really, the game was lost because of a snap count. I don’t think that they practiced their snap count at all, really, to any degree. We went into a game being able to snap silent count five different ways. Not two. Five. And in that game, I watched them on the snap count and I was blown away. You’re handcuffing your tackles, and that’s what happens when you don’t effectively run a silent snap count. And it was terrible to watch.”

This was regarding not just a standard snap count, but specifically, the silent snap. The silent snap is a tool for catching the defense off guard when crowd noise is a factor. The essential signal for a silent snap is typically some sort of head move by the center to alert the offense to “snap about to happen!”. If your silent snap is effective, it can do a great job to keep the offensive line in charge…if ineffective, well…scroll up. Video. Hit play again.

These revelations had fallouts on other outlets that caused the blame to be redirected to Bryan Stork, such as this video from an Inside The Pylon article:

This same snap happened multiple times, but made me wonder: Did this same snap happen in the past? As a former center myself (though never past the high school level, being 5’10 and 145lbs at age 18 has some limitations), I’ve always dialed in on movement of the offensive lines, and always thought to myself while watching Patriots games “how is nobody keying on this?”, dating back to the Dan Koppen era.

Let’s take a look back at some other Patriots away losses in big games and see what we have…

Patriots Silent Snap
Dan Koppen at center vs the Broncos in 2005. Several instances of this timing throughout the game, same “tip” as Stork was accused of.

colts 06 snap
Also Koppen, same head bob immediately before the snap. Occurs multiple times.

broncos 13 snap
This is with Ryan Wendell at center. Almost identical timing to the Stork and Koppen snaps, with a very tiny delay between head bob and snap. Perhaps enough to draw a defense offside? Perhaps what Light was referring to? Or simply an idiosyncracy of Wendell vs the other two? This snap happens on seemingly every silent snap throughout the game, and was the last game with Dante Scarnecchia as the offensive line coach…and no Von Miller, as he was injured midseason.

When you dial in on a center’s head bob at youtube quality video for a couple hours, you really start to feel like some sort of 9/11 truther, just digging for clues that don’t exist.

Hopefully, with the return of Scarnecchia and perhaps a few less injuries, we can consider this mystery solved and an offense that runs on all cylinders, with the several types of silent snaps that Light referenced.

Patriots 2016 Preview: Defensive Overview

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We’re just 17 days away from the start of Patriots training camp! The offseason always seems so long but somehow goes by so quickly. As we gear up for a huge new season here on the blog (more on that in the coming days), I’m posting some excerpts from my 40-page Patriots 2016 preview.

Here’s my defensive overview,  you can buy a digital copy of the preview book its entirety here for just $4.

2015 Defensive Statistical Rankings

Overall DVOA – 12th           Yards-per-Game – 24th (339.4)

Passing DVOA – 10th           Points-per-Game – 10th (19.7)

Running DVOA – 13th          Third Down – 10th (37 percent)

Fourth Down –  10th (44 percent)

The Patriots had perhaps their best defensive season since the dynasty days in 2015. After much concern about transitioning from Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, the Pats seamlessly transitioned to Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan, and saw their third down defense enter the top-10 in the NFL after being ranked 16th in 2015.

Most encouraging was that the Pats stuck primarily with the Cover-1 Robber defense that they used most often in 2014 as well. Man defense is critical in today’s NFL and the Pats held up well minimizing zone defenses that can be picked apart.

Jamie CollinsWhile the offense was decimated with injuries, the defense had better injury luck. Both Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower missed some games, but everyone was available for the playoffs and they turned in two solid performances.

With everyone returning except Chandler Jones, there’s little reason to think they won’t be even better this year.

One factor could be a significantly tougher schedule in 2016. Instead of cake walks with the AFC South and NFC East, they’ll now have to face the daunting NFC West and AFC North, which feature a number of top quarterbacks and difficult matchups.

The major additions on defense include Chris Long, Shea McClellin and Terrence Knighton. While Rob Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard should take the starting defensive end roles, Long is more than capable as the designated pass rusher and rotational defensive end.

Prior to two years of injury, Long showed little sign of dropoff in an otherwise healthy career. He’ll surprise anyone writing him off and I expect this trio to be even better than they were with Chandler Jones. By the end of 2015, Sheard had surpassed Jones on the depth chart anyway, playing more snaps in both playoff games.

McClellin gives the Patriots a third linebacker/edge hybrid player who can do a little of everything like Hightower and Collins, though he worked with the defensive ends in minicamp. He also gives them long term insurance as both Collins and Hightower enter the final years of their deals (though I’d expect both to re-sign before the 2016 season is done).

Acquiring Knighton, picking up Alan Branch’s option, the release of Dominique Easley and the drafting of Vincent Valentine all signal the direction of the Patriots’ defense schematically. No longer are they interested in undersized three-technique penetrators.

No, now it’s now all about size in the middle and essentially a paired down version of Belichick’s old 3-4 defense. Malcom Brown is an outstanding athlete, and though he doesn’t quite have the height of the other three tackles, he and the others will be able to occupy the middle of offensive lines while the linebackers and defensive ends make the plays.

It’s exciting to return nearly the entire defense, along with some solid additions in both free agency and the draft who should contribute immediately. Expectations should be through the roof, but they’ll be tested right out of the gate and see every variation of offense that exists in the NFL. They’re built to deal with all of them.

Patriots 2016 Preview: Offense Overview

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Back in the blogging saddle after a week of vacation and it’s hard to believe that another Patriots training camp is right around the corner. Over the next few weeks I’ll be posting some excerpts from my Patriots 2016 Preview book, which you can buy in its entirety here for just $4.

To kick things off here’s a quick look back at the 2015 offense and a look ahead at how things are shaping up for 2016.

2015 Offensive Statistical Rankings

  • Overall DVOA – 5th
  • Passing DVOA – 4th
  • Running DVOA – 12th
  • Yards-per-Game – 6th (374.4)
  • Points-per-Game – 3rd (29.1)
  • Third Down – 11th (41 percent)
  • Fourth Down –  t-4th (60 percent)

The Patriots were once again one of the best offenses in the NFL, looking almost as unstoppable as they were in 2007 through the first four weeks of the 2015 season. Then came the early bye week and the injury apocalypse commenced.

One stat that can define the 2015 season came on third down. Without Julian Edelman in the lineup, the Patriots third-down conversion percentage dropped by 16.1 percent, while Brady’s overall completion percentage dropped from 69.0 percent to 59.2 percent.

Edelman’s importance, or more specifically, a reliable Z-receiver who can get open quickly, is so vital to the Patriots offense. Developing depth around and in back of Edelman will be a big key for this season.

Meanwhile, the running game devolved to the point where the Pats put up just 44 yards on 17 carries in the AFC Championship. Tom Brady led the team in rushing with 13 yards. Yikes.

For the season the Pats ground “attack” was 29th in yards-per-attempt, 25th in rushing attempts and 30th in rushing yards.

This follows a two-year downward trend by the ground game where they’ve ranked 14th and 12th respectively in DVOA.. The last time they were out of the top-10 was 2005.

Other than adding veteran Donald Brown, the team essentially stayed pat with their running backs. The hope has to be that Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount return from injury and hopefully Brown or Tyler Gaffney can contribute. But that seems like a risky plan, relying on the injured and unproven.

The NFL is a passing league and as defenses get lighter and faster to defend the pass it’s a matter of time before power running offenses re-emerge. The Patriots have plenty of size up front, even if their collection of running backs seem far more geared toward the passing game.

Fullback James Develin will be back, and the offensive line should be better at opening holes, but the most exciting addition is tight end Martellus Bennett.

Never before have the Patriots had two dominant Y tight ends who can both block and catch, and that’s what they have in Bennett and Gronk.

Together, they should re-define the Patriots’ offense.

The other key personnel shift will occur at X-receiver where Brandon LaFell was released this offseason. Chris Hogan of the Bills was given the most lucrative free agent contract of the offseason and projects into the X-receiver role. He had a positive showing in minicamp.

Hogan was known as “7-11” during his rookie year on HBO’s Hard Knocks with the Dolphins because he was always open. He hasn’t played with a quarterback like Tom Brady before of course, and if he’s truly always open, he’ll see plenty of balls thrown his way. Earning Brady’s trust in the offseason is the biggest key for Hogan, but he can do everything the Pats ask of their split ends.

The running back spot is a significant area of concern, especially with their two biggest key players coming off significant injuries. But the addition of Bennett and Hogan, along with the return of Dante Scarnecchia to help get the entire offensive line back on track should mean great things once again for the Patriots offense in 2016.

Will Malcolm Butler Break the Patriots’ Corner Philosophy?

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<a rel=Here in the dead of the offseason I’ve been pondering the upcoming contract situations for various Patriots players in the next couple of years. Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower are the first priorities, with Jabaal Sheard garnering plenty of consideration himself. And those three are just the top of the list, the Pats will be hitting the reset button in a number of areas this coming offseason.

But most interesting to me is Malcolm Butler’s situation. With his strange absence from early OTA practices that he deemed a “misunderstanding,” while the media thought it was because he was unhappy with his pay, it seems like things could get interesting sooner than later.

What troubles me was looking back at this article I wrote last season about how the Patriots just didn’t give lucrative long-term deals to cornerbacks. They’ll be fine paying a big sum of money for a season like they did with Asante Samuel and Darrelle Revis, but they’ve never broken the bank for cornerbacks.

History Not on Butler’s Side

The Pats are in the driver’s seat through next season, when Butler hits restricted free agency. They can hit him with a first round tender and Butler will either have to find a team willing to give up a first round pick for him or play for the Patriots at a ballpark salary of $3.7 million. For a guy making $600k this season, that’s a pretty good bump.

But after 2017 is when things get interesting. Given the Pats’ history it would make sense to think the team will hit Butler with the franchise tag, let him play the season out and then let him walk. Yes, that seems like an abrupt end for a Super Bowl hero and the most promising cornerback since Ty Law, but if the Pats played hard ball with Law, there’s little reason to doubt they’ll play hard ball with Butler.

Age is a slight difference in this situation though, as Butler would turn 28 at the start of the 2018 league season. When the Pats were negotiating a new deal for Law he was already at the dreaded 30. Here’s some insight from last year’s piece about how those negotiations went:

In 2004, Law wanted another extension and the Patriots offered him $26 million over four years. Even today that would be the biggest contract extension the Patriots ever awarded to a corner. , including a $20 million signing bonus. Then-general manager Scott Pioli simply responded

The scariest precedent is Asante Samuel, who led the league in interceptions in the final year of his rookie deal in 2006. Instead of giving the promising young corner a long term deal, the Pats hit him with the franchise tag in 2007 for $7.79 million then let him go to the Eagles the next offseason on a six-year, $56 million deal.

Butler Break the Mold?

But maybe Butler is different. He’s certainly a better fit for the Patriots now than Samuel was because of his ability to play man coverage and fearless run support. But with so many other players to pay over the next couple seasons and a number of other promising young man-coverage cornerbacks in the pipeline, the team might once again be forced to let a talented player leave.

Things could come to a head sooner if Butler doesn’t feel like waiting for this scenario to unfold. If he were to hold out would the Patriots give him a raise like they did with Richard Seymour? Seymour proved that playing hardball with the Pats can sometimes work out. But defensive end is a different position and one that the Patriots seem to value more than cornerback.

If Butler isn’t careful he could instead end up like Deion Branch in 2006 — shipped out of town.

This will be one of the more fascinating scenarios to play out over the next couple years.  Is Butler really special? Has the way the Patriots view cornerbacks changed? Or will he just be the latest one to have every ounce of value squeezed out of him before cashing in with a huge deal from another team?

 

5 Questions for the 2016 Patriots

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With the conclusion of OTAs, the New England Patriots will no hit a brief summer break before the start of training camp in late July. There’s been plenty of moves this offseason that should make the 2016 version of the team a unique flavor, and while there’s plenty to be excited about, there are still a number of questions that face the team.

Here are the things that I’ll be most curious to watch once training camp opens and the 2016 season gets underway.

  1. 2016 Patriots QuestionsRunning Back Plan — At the start of the offseason I felt like it was time for the Patriots to re-commit to their ground game a bit. It’s been well documented how much the Pats struggled to move the ball on the ground once Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount were lost for the season. But the Patriots did barely anything at the position — signing Donald Brown and undrafted rookie D.J. Foster was it. Neither of those players are even locks to make the roster. So what now? Assume Lewis and Blount return and stay healthy all year? Believe James White will earn the coaching staff’s trust to carry the ball? That Tyler Gaffney can stay healthy and contribute? Those are big questions and nothing leaves us feeling confident that the Patriots will have a running game resurgence unless Lewis comes back in the same form he left and plays the entire season. Perhaps the offensive line will be better and it won’t really matter who’s carrying the ball. Still, it tough to see how it will play out and another injury to Lewis or Blount would be devastating.
  2. Tom Brady Suspension — Of course this one’s a headline but really, in the grand scheme of the season, I don’t think whether or not Brady sits the first four games will have a huge impact overall. That’s assuming that Garoppolo would at least lead the team to a 2-2 record which seems manageable considering the opponents, veteran Patriots defense and weaponry around him. The problem could be a lack of running game in those early weeks. Being one dimensional with Tom Brady is one thing, but with Garoppolo it could be hairy.
  3. Defensive Scheme Tweaks — The two interesting twists from minicamp was Shea McClellin playing defensive end instead of middle linebacker and Rob Ninkovich playing middle linebacker instead of defensive end. I still believe that these are not major position switches, rather a chance to see what Ninkovich can do at a spot where depth is limited, and that we’ll still see McClellin in a linebacker role more often than with his hand on ground. But this does point to some more front seven versatility. We’ve already seen Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins playing all around the front and now it would seem the team is preparing to be even more fluid with where they can align everyone.
  4. Offensive Line Coming Together — There’s going to be some great competition along the offensive line in training camp and we didn’t really get much of a glimpse of it in minicamp with so many players still out, including Solder, Vollmer, Kline, Jackson and, for most of the practices, Mason. This left a starting offensive line of Waddle–Thuney–Stork/Andrews–Cooper–Cannon. Stork and Andrews should be a tight battle at center with the loser possibly ending up on the street. Does Cannon’s salary make him a potential camp casualty? Jackson and Mason had promising moments as rookies, how will they progress under Dante Scarnecchia? Is Joe Thuney better than both of them? Can Cooper re-find his elite talent level that made him a top-10 pick? Can Vollmer and Solder get (and stay) healthy)? So many questions at such an important position grouping.
  5. Health — Every year at the start  of camp the dreaded PUP list comes out for those not fully recovered yet. The list of integral Patriots who weren’t able to go in the spring is long and there’s no guarantee who will be back and ready to go in six weeks. If guys like Edelman, Amendola or the significant offensive linemen are still recovering it will open up opportunities for other players, but could also adversely affect how good the team will be in September. It’s important to take the long view and having guys in January is much more important, but who knows what kind of injury management will be happening through camp.