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Breaking Down the Patriots’ Cornerbacks

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Patriots Cornerbacks

The Patriots came away with yet another relatively easy victory Sunday, this time dispatching the Bills thanks to another stellar performance by Tom Brady and the offense. The defense held its own after a discouraging opening drive, but issues remained throughout the game that have been evident throughout the season. While Malcolm Butler is playing at an Pro-Bowl level, the player across from him, which has rotated between Logan Ryan and Eric Rowe, has been subpar at best. Looking at the Patriots roster, the second corner spot seems to be the teams biggest weakness, and it seems to be the one spot that has the potential to cripple the Patriots when the playoffs come around.

The most surprising thing about the struggles in the secondary is that the unit was ranked third coming into this season by Pro Football Focus, trailing only Denver and Arizona, and ranking ahead of units like the Legion of Boom in Seattle and the star-studded secondary in Minnesota. The Patriots secondary was ranked so high in large part due to the play of Logan Ryan last season, who actually ranked ahead of his teammate Butler in 2015. Ryan finished as PFF’s 11-best corner in the league, with Butler coming in as the 24th ranked corner. Remember, last season Ryan effectively shut down the likes of Deandre Hopkins and Demaryius Thomas, and seemed to be trending towards the elite status that Butler has reached this season (Butler is PFF’s 4th-best corner this season, with a 86.7 grade). Instead, he has gone in the opposite direction, getting beat time and time again, leading to a benching in Week 7 against the Steelers, and getting replaced by Eric Rowe in the starting lineup this past Sunday.

So far this season, Ryan has allowed a 63% completion percentage when targeted, giving up 33 catches for 403 yards on 52 targets, allowing 12 yards per catch. He has also given up two touchdowns. The past three weeks Ryan has been even worse, allowing a completion percentage of 70%, and averaging 16 yards per catch when in coverage. His performance this season is so far removed from his outstanding play in 2015 that has regressed from 11th-ranked corner last season to 59th in 2016.

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Shock Report: Patriots Trade Jamie Collins to Browns

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Bill Belichick and the Patriots have a long list of bombshell trades over the past 16 years and today’s reported trade of Jamie Collins to the Cleveland Browns for a third round pick is right up there with the 2009 Richard Seymour trade to Oakland and the 2010 mid-season Randy Moss trade to Minnesota.

Jamie CollinsUpdate:

Collins was a rotational linebacker on Sunday against the Bills, playing in passing situations. He was just taken off the injury report on Friday so initially I assumed he was still just being managed. But apparently there was something more going on behind the scenes. Collins has certainly been up and down this season, but never did I suspect the Patriots would trade him mid-season like this.

I don’t want to speculate, but the lower value of a third round pick (likely high in the third round, not much lower than Chandler Jones’ price) indicates the Patriots weren’t just thinking they couldn’t re-sign Collins, they didn’t really want him or think they needed him anymore. The speculation in the coming hours and days will be fascinating, because unlike Seymour and Moss, there’s no easy assumption why the Patriots would move on from a player many thought was one of the best linebackers in the league.

It’s safe to say though that Belichick must be unhappy with the defense. The message is clear. Yes, they’ve made incremental process each week recently, but that doesn’t look like it’s good enough for BB. My first instinct is that this goes toward the old Scott Pioli quote — “we’re building a team, not collecting talent.” Jamie Collins is the kind of talent anyone wants to collect, but how this plays out in building a team will be seen over the next three-plus months.

We’ve known that 2017 would be a reset year on defense with so many free agents and with the trades of Chandler Jones and now Collins, they’ve jettisoned more key players than they’ve extended.

Mike Lombardi’s take:

This now means that Elandon Roberts will be thrust into an even more prominent role, while Kyle Van Noy could find himself playing quite a bit after the bye week. And there’s even more pressure on Dont’a Hightower to not only stay healthy, but for the Patriots to re-sign him.

Another jaw-dropper in a long list of jaw droppers, and maybe the most jaw droppiest. Going to take a while to process it, and with the bye week there’ll be even more time to speculate just what the hell is going on. Now you wonder if Collins disappears into the mess that is Cleveland, perhaps never to attain the elite linebacker level most had him pencilled into already.

Or does he hit free agency this offseason and join up with a team where he could come back to haunt the Pats? That’s a frightening Halloween thought.

Some tweets coming out that put things in a bit of context…

 

Dion Lewis Back at Practice for Patriots

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Oh happy day, Dion Lewis is off the PUP list and back at practice for the Patriots. The team now has 21 days to activate him onto the roster.

The former journeyman running back burst onto the scene last season, looking like Barry Sanders 2.0 in seven games with the Patriots before tearing his ACL. The Pats placed him on the PUP list after a setback this summer delayed his return to action.

In those seven games, Lewis put up 49 rushes for 234 yards with two touchdowns and 36 catches for 388 yards and two touchdowns. As those number show, he was a true dynamic threat, and was breaking tackles at a record pace. The thought of what he could bring to the Patriots offense if he can return to that form is frightening (for opponents) and tantalizing (for Pats fans).

Dion Lewis

Dion Lewis

The Pats have been fine with James White and LeGarrette Blount. In fact, has the top running back receiving grade from PFF, while Blount has already exceeded his career-high in touchdowns and needs just nine more catches for his career high. But both are somewhat one-dimensional, especially White, who’s rushing numbers are far below his receiving ones.

So Lewis could bring the best of both worlds, and his ability in space and to make people miss is unique and will bring another dynamic playmaker to an offense that is already loaded with them. But again, Lewis was a nobody before those seven games last season, so there is just a bit of uncertainty that he’s going to automatically get back to the same level of awesomeness, especially coming off an injury that usually takes two years before the player is fully comfortable.

With White and Blount the Pats can bring Lewis along slowly, as they’ve already been doing. But as they slowly bring him into the mix with the goal of seeing some of that 2015 form in January, the offense could see a level of unstoppability not seen since the early months of 2007.

Malcolm Butler is Playing at a Pro-Bowl Level… Again

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Patriots Cornerbacks

Darrelle Revis’ departure from the Patriots after their 2014 Super Bowl victory, at least for a moment, appeared to leave a gaping hole in the New England secondary. Thankfully,  Malcolm Butler quickly asserted himself as the team’s top corner during the 2015 training camp. Butler never looked back and was selected to the Pro Bowl in 2015, an accomplishment he’s on pace to duplicate with his stellar start to 2016.

While he’s not the biggest guy, Butler is more than capable in run support, but it’s his elite ball skills and speed that put him in the upper echelon of NFL corners. This season Malcolm Butler has eleven passes defensed and one interception, putting him on pace to exceed his 2015 total of 15 and two, respectively.

Below is a week-by-week look back at Butler’s performance thus far in 2016. H/T to Doug Kyed from NESN for the passing stats from his weekly takeaways column.

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Belichick on Patrick Chung’s Second Stint With Patriots

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When I first started this blog back in 2010, Patrick Chung was one of my favorite players. He came to New England right at the start of the defensive rebuild and for a fan base longing for another Rodney Harrison-esque enforced in the secondary, Patchung! (as I called him then) fit the mold.

Today Bill Belichick touched a bit on what has made Chung’s second stint with the Patriots so much better for the team and the player and I thought his answers were telling.

“He’s great at that; finding the ball, getting through traffic, fitting in the running game, covering in traffic. He knows all of those kinds of things. He’s really good at that,” Belichick said of Chung’s abilities near the line of scrimmage. “When we had him before he left and then he came back and you know we just weren’t able to put him into some of the positions that he should’ve been put in. We had other things to deal with. We were trying to deal with other things on the defense and we’ve been able to I would say play him in a much better way in the last three years than we did when he was here the first time. I think our utilization of him has been better. He’s been pretty much the same player but I think we’ve been able to utilize him better the last three years and he’s done a great job embracing the different responsibilities that we’ve given him, which he has a lot of different things to do on the defense within the game or from game to game.”

One of the biggest problems with Chung was that he couldn’t stay healthy. He missed 14 games from 2010-2012, when he was hitting his prime and the Patriots desperately needed help in their secondary.

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Notes on the Pats Re-Watch (and leftovers)

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legarrette blountReally wish the All-22 film was up on Mondays, it would make turning the page to the next game that much quicker and easier. Alas, the film review will have to wait until tomorrow. In the meantime I took a quick re-watch of the Pats-Steelers game.

Here are some notes and some leftovers to go with the extensive Posits post from yesterday, as well as some notes on the fallout around the league after Week 7.

— Gotta start with Chandler Jones, who is reportedly in negotiations with the Cardinals on an extension. Good for Chandler and way to move on it when it’s still October and he’s still playing great. Traditionally his play has fallen off a cliff later in the year, often due to injuries. Bertrand was acting like this trade was a huge mistake yesterday on the Sports Hub, which made me almost want to call in and yell at him.

First of all, you get Joe Thuney, who looks like he’ll start at left guard for the next decade. Then there’s Malcolm Mitchell who is the most under-the-radar rookie receiver in recent Patriots history. The fact that Mitchell is getting consistent snaps is a major positive sign, even if he’s not putting up much stats. The fact that Jonathan Cooper didn’t really work out doesn’t even affect my view at all.

It should be surprising Jones is doing well in an attacking defense. But he’d be doing different things in New England and I doubt he’d be of much help to a defense that really doesn’t need him. We should at least wait until December and maybe not until another year or two before truly deciding a verdict in this trade, but even as things sit today I’d still do it every time.

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A Historical Look Back at Patriots’ Points Allowed, Third Down and Red Zone Defense

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Maybe this is a little too deep for a pregame read, but I dove into the long-term defensive stats of the Patriots under Bill Belichick and found the results really interesting.

screen-shot-2016-10-21-at-2-07-02-pmBelichick has said in the past that the key stats for a defense are points, third down and red zone, with points being the most important. Entering today’s game, the Patriots are 2nd in points, 29th on third down and 27th in the red zone. The disparity is fascinating, and those stats are fueling the latest debates about how good the Patriots defense is or isn’t.

But when you look back since 2001, the picture that these stats paint isn’t much different than what we have today. In that time the Patriots have averaged 20th in third down defense, 17th in red zone defense, and 8th in points. As you can see from the charts, the third down defense is all over the map, while the points have been a model of consistency.

screen-shot-2016-10-21-at-2-03-49-pmThe media (and yours truly included) have been hammering the third down defense in recent weeks, but maybe it matters just a little bit less than we all think it does. The Super Bowl-winning Patriots teams weren’t always lock down on third down – 2001 (15th), 2003 (7th), 2004 (21st) and 2014 (16th).

When you compare those rankings to points allowed — 2001 (6th), 2003 (1st), 2004 (2nd), and 2014 (8th) — the latter seems far more important, even though the Patriots have only dropped out of the top-10 in points allowed in three seasons under Belichick (2002, 2005, 2011).

Obviously you always want to get off the field on third down and to prevent touchdowns in the red zone, but maybe we (I) should stop obsessing over those two stats like they’re the end-all, be-all of statistics.

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