Rick Starke

Super Bowl 51: Superstitions and Feels

February 8, 2017 by Rick Starke

I woke up Sunday Morning, February 5 to a suggestion:

“Can we rearrange the living room today?”

I tried to remain calm. In nearly all facets of life, I’m not a superstitious guy, or believer in ghosts, or luck, or anything of the sort…except in football.

“You think I’m rearranging the furniture, where I watch the games, on Super Bowl Sunday? No.”

“Why?”

I blame my dad (he’s alive and healthy. I’m not Futurama Dog Episoding you, here). When I was a kid and he played bar league sports, he always needed to have the same number. The four years that I played youth football, we’d have the same breakfast every gameday until we lost (which was infrequent), and then start a new breakfast plan. It was little things like that all over the place that added up into some lunacy. After the final game of the 18-1 season, one of my dad’s laments was “We forgot to make the venison chili this time!”, which we had made for every previous Brady/Belichick Super Bowl, as if that lack of preparedness was a contributor to the final score. I still bought in, even in my 20s.

A Closer Look at Flea Flicking Off the Ravens

December 18, 2016 by Rick Starke

We all know how much better the Patriots running game has been this year than last year. With three games to go, there have been more rushing touchdowns and more first downs than last seasons full year totals. Leading the way from a statistical standpoint has been Legarrette Blount. Actually leading the way has been the offensive line under the returning Dante Scarnecchia, and an infusion of young, hungry, and mean players on the inside of the line.

This season’s running game has been a welcome change from the abysmal ground game in 2015. Play actions feel more effective. Comparing what statistics are available, Tom Brady was 6th in Football Outsiders DVOA in 2015 on play action passes, though only 21st in yardage differential on passes without play action. and this year has the highest passer rating in the league on play action passes, with a 125.0 (2016 DVOA numbers for play action aren’t available yet). That’s a great effect of the running game.

Numbers start to look that good when opposing teams are heavily committed to stopping the run, as opposed to barely caring if you hand the ball off…and when your running game has well-coached teams committed to the point of overpursuit, you start getting away with beautifully ballsy plays like this:

This is the first half of the flea flicker that went to Chris Hogan for 28 yards. One of those sexy-not sexy plays that doesn’t make a highlight reel during the week, because it didn’t score, and wasn’t a turnover. Stay hypnotized by that play for a moment. Here is the All-22 of the same play, watch the action of Baltimore’s defense up front:

Eight Ravens in pursuit. Great read by CJ Mosley to follow when David Andrews peeled off his block to go back and protect Brady, and the coverage was actually pretty solid down field. Hogan beat his 1 on 1, and Malcolm Mitchell was bracketed by a corner and safety. The Ravens played this as well as possible, but were still hopelessly out of position up front. In 2015, this play probably has some devastating hit to Brady, or the pitch back to Brady is intercepted for a touchdown, or some other ugly result. Instead, we have probably the longest flea flicker pitch in history (Seriously! Look at that! Blount starts in the middle of the field and ends up a good 5-6 yards outside the hash before that pitch! Insane!), and one more thing for opposing defenses to have to worry about when overcommitting to the run.

This was beautiful, and I sure am looking forward to the next development off of the success of the running game.

The Brave New(ish) World of the Patriots Offense

December 9, 2016 by Rick Starke

Earlier this week on PatsProp, both Sam and Adam set the table for the “real” season. Go read their articles if you’ve missed them, they’re great. With the table set, let’s pass some hors d’oeuvres:

We’ve been here before. It’s week 13. The Patriots are 10-2, and in the drivers seat for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs as long as they take care of their own business (ICYMI: The Chiefs beat the Raiders Thursday night). Tom Brady is putting up MVP calibur numbers. Bill Belichick made a trade several weeks before that made everyone’s head spin. and the Patriots offense is loaded with guys that have played together for years, make the same reads, think the same thoughts, and answer questions ambiguously.

Wait a minute…who is on the offense?

Or, more accurately, who played a major role in this offense exactly one year ago, and what has changed?

Malcolm Mitchell and the myth of Mean Old Tom (Brady)

December 8, 2016 by Rick Starke

It seems the Patriots draft a new wide receiver or two every year.

Every year, it seems Tom Brady and new receiver of the year cannot get on the same page, Brady loses confidence in that receiver, that receiver ends up in everyone’s dog house, and is then cut, traded, or otherwise run out of town.

Early in this season, we saw Malcolm Mitchell look like he and Jimmy Garoppolo were on the same page, with Mitchell being targeted 7 times in 6 quarters, with 3 catches. Mitchell had two more targets from Jacoby Brissett in week 3, with one catch for 27 yards. He showed flashes of potential in his first preseason game before dislocating his elbow.

Based on evidence from the past with rookies AND veterans across several seasons (brief list: Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate, Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, Taylor Price, Chad Ochocinco, Joey Galloway) flaming out with Tom Brady, I was cautious with my hope in the Patriots developing a new, young weapon in their outside receiving corp. Sure, all those other guys went on to do nothing else in the league after their Patriots careers, but I wasn’t alone in this fear of yet another flame out. This other guy I know had something to say about it in his own cautiously sarcastic fashion:

Gonna suck when Brady comes back and hates Malcolm Mitchell isn’t it? I kid. I’m kidding. I think.

— Mike Dussault (@PatsPropaganda) September 23, 2016

Patriots Defense Setting Tone With Big Hits

November 7, 2016 by Rick Starke

The Bend-But-Don’t-Break Defense can drive fans nuts. Thrilling, eye catching hot take, I know.

As the Patriots’ season has gone along through eight games, it certainly has become much less prone to break, and even better, less bendy. Third down defense has steadily gone up (19th in the league, 10th in the last 3 games), red zone stops have steadily gone up (19th in the league, 8th in the last 3 games), and points allowed has been a strength, the Patriots at third in the league as of this writing with 16.5/game behind Minnesota (14.9) and Seattle (15.6).

One more thing has started to tick up in recent weeks, and that is something else that makes a Bend-But-Don’t-Break defense hit the next level: Big Hits!

Not just big hits…but intelligent, punishing, and fundamentally sound big hits. Nothing dirty, nothing late, no launching. Discipline. Growing up playing football, every good coach will give some version of this instruction on hitting the opponent: Hit them clean, make them HATE football.

A Little Bit of James White Appreciation

October 13, 2016 by Rick Starke

James White has had many detractors over his first two years as a Patriot, despite showing some promise. I’ve been one of those, as have other members of the staff here at PatsProp (yup me – Mike D). All offseason, we had been looking for more from him, or expecting him to go, especially with some of us expecting DJ Foster to take his spot if he didn’t step up.

As for the rest of Patriots Nation, we had observed two camps on this…the pro-James White crowd (as Mike D had dubbed, The White Boys , and the pro-DJ Foster crowd (uh…Foster Families?). Well, nearly one third of the way through the season, the White Boys have been correct here, and it has been a great sight to see.

First, we’ll start with a play versus the Browns that will NEVER show up on a stat sheet that anyone cares about, but I almost jumped out of my seat with excitement when I watched it live:

WHEW.

Look at that. James White is lined up at the snap on Brady’s left. White reads the overload blitz from the offense’s right, shifts across the formation, sees Cameron Fleming pick up the inside blitzing linebacker, and continues outside the tackle to pick up the blitzing defensive back. This play would be a film junkie’s DREAM if the pass didn’t end up incomplete on a great breakup by Brian Boddy-Calhoun…but the important thing here is that White showed the awareness to protect Tom Brady from an unabated shot to the chin from the blitzing corner.

How a Bad 2010 Browns Team Beat a Good Patriots Team

October 8, 2016 by Rick Starke

Back in 2010, Rob Gronkowski was a rookie. He wasn’t yet Gronk. BenJarvus Green-Ellis was busy churning out tough yards and never turning the ball over. Danny Woodhead was just starting to be more than a fast little Jets spy. Wes Welker was still piling up receptions on his way to being the Patriots all-time receptions leader. Randy Moss was just recently traded, and Deion Branch had come back to town! Aaron Hernandez was showing himself to be a promising rookie. Nobody had yet grown tired of Brandon Spikes, or Ron Brace, or Jermaine Cunningham. Holy crap, Tully Banta-Cain was back for a second stint. Rob Ninkovich had yet to become a workmanlike folk hero.

The Browns…well, they had fantasy football “Oh crap, MAYBE on my bye week?” guys everywhere. Mohammad Massoquoi. Colt McCoy. Ben Watson. Josh Cribbs. Chansi Stuckey. Brian Robiskie (did you have him? Yeah, I also play dynasty). Peyton Hillis had a great year that year, with 1600+ yards from scrimmage and 13 tds…otherwise…eek. T.J. Ward and Joe Haden were there on defense, but nobody else that was sending shivers up your spine.

The Browns won 34-14.

How. HOW?!