Mike Dussault

Patriots vs. Steelers Film Review: Defense Edition

October 26, 2016 by Mike Dussault

Diving in on the All-22 film of the Patriots’ defensive performance left me dazed and confused. I told myself after the game that a win is a win and really at this point there’s still time to work the kinks out, but the truth is that the defense is simply not winning one-on-one matchups up front enough.

Yes, it was a conservative gameplan, with the Pats rushing just three players on 22 of Landry Jones‘ 46 dropbacks. On those downs the Patriots were highly effective flooding the field with eight zone defenders. Jones had the most trouble on those snaps.

But when the Pats sent five or six rushers it barely ever affected Jones’ timing with his receivers and three of his eight completions of 10 yards or more came against the Pats five and six man rush.

So in today’s film review I’m going to look at one third down play in depth that best sum up the Patriots’ defensive problems.

Notes on the Pats Re-Watch (and leftovers)

October 25, 2016 by Mike Dussault

legarrette blount Really wish the All-22 film was up on Mondays, it would make turning the page to the next game that much quicker and easier. Alas, the film review will have to wait until tomorrow. In the meantime I took a quick re-watch of the Pats-Steelers game.

Here are some notes and some leftovers to go with the extensive Posits post from yesterday, as well as some notes on the fallout around the league after Week 7.

— Gotta start with Chandler Jones, who is reportedly in negotiations with the Cardinals on an extension. Good for Chandler and way to move on it when it’s still October and he’s still playing great. Traditionally his play has fallen off a cliff later in the year, often due to injuries. Bertrand was acting like this trade was a huge mistake yesterday on the Sports Hub, which made me almost want to call in and yell at him.

First of all, you get Joe Thuney, who looks like he’ll start at left guard for the next decade. Then there’s Malcolm Mitchell who is the most under-the-radar rookie receiver in recent Patriots history. The fact that Mitchell is getting consistent snaps is a major positive sign, even if he’s not putting up much stats. The fact that Jonathan Cooper didn’t really work out doesn’t even affect my view at all.

It should be surprising Jones is doing well in an attacking defense. But he’d be doing different things in New England and I doubt he’d be of much help to a defense that really doesn’t need him. We should at least wait until December and maybe not until another year or two before truly deciding a verdict in this trade, but even as things sit today I’d still do it every time.

Pats Posits: You Can’t Complain About a Win in Pittsburgh

October 23, 2016 by Mike Dussault

A win over the Pittsburgh Steelers is a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. It wasn’t pretty at times, but it was an effective win on the road. The Patriots were sloppy, but it didn’t matter. The return of the “Bend-Don’t-Break” defense made sure the lead held up and now the Pats are 6-1, and hold a significant tie breaker in the race for homefield advantage.

Ultimately what matters most is that a) no one left the game with a significant injury, b) you can slow Brady-Gronk down, but it cannot be stopped for 60 minutes, and c) the Patriots now have a two-game lead over the Bills in the AFC East. The defense has, in the words of Mike Lombardi, “issues” but here in late October the Pats are positioned well atop the AFC and have time to iron those issues out.

But yup, the Patriots are running away with this thing early.

A Historical Look Back at Patriots’ Points Allowed, Third Down and Red Zone Defense

October 23, 2016 by Mike Dussault

Maybe this is a little too deep for a pregame read, but I dove into the long-term defensive stats of the Patriots under Bill Belichick and found the results really interesting.

screen-shot-2016-10-21-at-2-07-02-pm Belichick has said in the past that the key stats for a defense are points, third down and red zone, with points being the most important. Entering today’s game, the Patriots are 2nd in points, 29th on third down and 27th in the red zone. The disparity is fascinating, and those stats are fueling the latest debates about how good the Patriots defense is or isn’t.

But when you look back since 2001, the picture that these stats paint isn’t much different than what we have today. In that time the Patriots have averaged 20th in third down defense, 17th in red zone defense, and 8th in points. As you can see from the charts, the third down defense is all over the map, while the points have been a model of consistency.

screen-shot-2016-10-21-at-2-03-49-pm The media (and yours truly included) have been hammering the third down defense in recent weeks, but maybe it matters just a little bit less than we all think it does. The Super Bowl-winning Patriots teams weren’t always lock down on third down – 2001 (15th), 2003 (7th), 2004 (21st) and 2014 (16th).

When you compare those rankings to points allowed — 2001 (6th), 2003 (1st), 2004 (2nd), and 2014 (8th) — the latter seems far more important, even though the Patriots have only dropped out of the top-10 in points allowed in three seasons under Belichick (2002, 2005, 2011).

Obviously you always want to get off the field on third down and to prevent touchdowns in the red zone, but maybe we (I) should stop obsessing over those two stats like they’re the end-all, be-all of statistics.

screen-shot-2016-10-21-at-2-43-50-pm

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 7 at Pittsburgh Steelers

October 21, 2016 by Mike Dussault

The 5-1 Patriots travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers Sunday in what was supposed to be an AFC Championship game preview, but with Ben Roethlisberger out the game won’t quite live up to that hype. Still the Steelers have two of the most dynamic weapons in the game — Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, and both should provide plenty of problems for the Patriots on the road.

It seems after last week’s win over the Bengals that the Patriots are starting to find their stride in 2016. They got through Brady’s suspension and overcame some minor injuries and are now looking to establish the one thing they’ve been missing in the first six weeks of the season — consistency.

No one will be handing out any awards for beating Landry Jones, but this is an important game nonetheless, and one that could very well determine where a potential rematch is played. We all know how impossible the Patriots can be to beat at home in the playoffs so a victory here provides a key tie breaker that could be needed when the season ends.

It’s hard to believe the Patriots and Steelers have only met four times in the regular season since 2010, and haven’t met in the playoffs since 2004’s AFC Championship.

Here’s the gameplan for a rivalry renewed once again…

Patriots-Bengals Film Review: What’s Up With Jules Edition

October 20, 2016 by Mike Dussault

julian edelman gif

I came out of the win over the Bengals happy that the Patriots were no longer having to over-rely on Julian Edelman. Preserving Edelman for the key moments in the playoff run is of prime importance as we saw last year, when the Patriots 3rd down numbers fell off a cliff when Edelman went down.

However I made the mistake of flipping on Felger and Mazz on Monday afternoon to discover them wondering what was going on with Edelman. Huh? I usually don’t humor F&M’s silly outrage with blog posts, but it does seem like Edelman’s been a little bit more quiet than we’re used to. Add in a few recent penalties and his lack of a touchdown through six games and I started to wonder if something was up with #11.

So I took a look at Edelman’s season so far to see what, if anything, is really going on.

Patriots vs. Bengals Film Review: Defense Edition

October 19, 2016 by Mike Dussault

There was a lot to like about the Patriots defensive performance in their 35-17 win over the Bengals. It wasn’t all perfect, there were three drives where the Bengals moves the ball with ease, but as the game progressed the Patriots defense settled in and showed improvement in some of the areas they struggled in early in the season.

For the game, the Patriots held the Bengals to 5-10 on third down, and 2-4 in the red zone, including a fourth-down, goal-line stop that should fuel the defense’s confidence. The Pats are now second in the league in points allowed. That’s the ultimate bottom line stat and shows that despite some struggles on third down and in the red zone, this is still a very good defense that is one of the hardest in the league to score on. That has to count for a lot.

And even you’re not sold on points against, the bad areas are now improving statistically every week. Third down, red zone, yardage… each week they get a little better. If that continues this will be a playoff-ready defense by any metric.

Here’s what else stood out from film review, including a few more Elandon Roberts “fire in the hole” hit GIFs…