Archives for December 13, 2014

This rebuild was one of the reasons I started blogging about the Pats – I was fascinated to see how Belichick would rebuild the defense from scratch essentially. When else in recent football history has a coach like BB had this kind of chance?

At max health I think it’s complete, but really the major pieces took far longer to come together than I would’ve thought. I think it was the Chandler Jones/McCourty to safety/Revis & Browner that made the most difference in the last couple seasons.

Maybe it sounds dumb, but yeah, two physical talented corners, one of whom might just be the best in the game, have had the biggest impact this year that we’ve seen since 2008. Frankly, the Patriots defense has been one you just hoped wouldn’t lose the game for you from 2010-2013, this year they are a defense than can win games.

Prior to this year you picked up pieces here and there… Mayo was a major one at first, then came Ninkovich emerging from nowhere in 2009, Kyle Arrington developing into a top-notch slot guy, and now the pieces have been filled in with Chris Jones/Siliga coming last year, Hightower coming as another first rounder and effectively taking over for Mayo. Wilfork of course has been a big part of it all along and for that he’s like the granddaddy on defense.

But I think what we’ve learned is that an elite secondary can make an okay pass rush sufficient. They don’t have a dominant front seven just yet, but perhaps they will peak in the playoffs as Chandler returns and Hightower gets fully healthy. We’ll see, but they are really good this year and it’s been a long journey to get here.

I think the run game would be better with Mankins, but I am still okay with the trade. Simply put, I think Connolly and Wendell are upgradeable and I wanted to try to replace both of them last offseason. They did draft Stork, someone I mocked to them, and I love that move. He’s still a rookie but he’s shown a lot of promise.

The problem is that without Mankins, Connolly had to slide to left guard and Wendell, who was just a center before this year, was the best (or only legit) option at right guard.

Part of the recent struggles could be related to Connolly’s ankle injury. We tend to not talk about injuries unless they keep guys out of the lineup, but I think that has been a factor. I can’t totally kill Connolly/Wendell, both have had their moments this year and I think Wendell has far exceeded my expectations as a guard.

Still, they’re upgradeable.

Overall they just aren’t getting much push, nor are they getting the second level with any consistency. The running backs are getting hit in the backfield and need to make something out of nothing.

This offseason I’ll be back beating the drum to acquire multiple guards.

Yup, very good point that no one is talking about. Still, I think the Pats have the pieces to stop the Ravens offense that they didn’t have in the past. However I think, as we saw last year in Baltimore, the Ravens are a different team facing Brady without Lewis and Reed. We saw the same thing in ‘09 with our defense when we lost that veteran swagger (for lack of a better term). 

There was something unflinching about the Ravens defense facing us with Reed/Lewis. But they just don’t have that any more in my view and they’re no longer in the Pats’ heads. 

So while I do think the Ravens are one of the best and most underrated teams in the AFC, I don’t think they’d pose a major problem like they did in years past. I’d still prefer them to Indy again, even though we’ve stomped them the last three times. Something about that Colts offense feels like they could put together the kind of game it would take to win in Foxboro. Not sure why I feel this way, just a gut instinct. Let the Broncos deal with them. I’ll take the Ravens in the divisional round.

I don’t fault them for TRYING to run, I fault them for not being able to run yet continuing to try, after they had success with the spread prior to halftime when they moved the ball at will. I know we want the offense to be balanced, but at some point you have to know what your bread-and-butter is and use that as your hammer. 

Per Football Outsiders this is the worst running attack the Patriots have had in 11 seasons. They’re currently 19th in the NFL in that category. They’re also 22nd in the NFL picking up first downs when they run the ball on third or fourth down with 1-3 yards to go. 

So I’m just not convinced they really are the power running team they want to be in certain situations and I think it’s time to realize that and play to their strengths, instead of trying to force the issue to prove a point.

I firmly believe in “throw to score, run to win” and I think the Pats have the pieces to run to win. But last week they were trying too much to “run to score” in my opinion. 

Very interesting question, because I do think that Ayers is a bit better in space than Chandler is. However I think Chandler is the better player on the line and really, that’s what is most important as a defensive end. 

Ayers has been very good, but at the same time I think a lot of his success has been a result of scheme, not necessarily him being physically dominant. Ayers has certainly flashed levels of dominance, but I think Chandler is more capable of “ruining a game/play” by himself.

I do think, like you said, we could see a Ninkovich-Chris Jones-Chandler Jones-Ayers all-out pass rush front (sorry Easley). Chandler is a load inside and that would make for a nightmare.

It will be depend on the game plan but Ayers has shown enough to remain involved when Chandler is back to 100%. Ayers could also play some linebacker with Jones at defensive end. BB will get creative to get his best 11 out there.

That’s kind of the rub, isn’t it? He was seeming like a high-cost re-signing before having this down year. It’s also hard to read how the Cannon extension feeds into that.

I saw some speculation that Cannon is insurance for Solder should he walk. But what if they’re ready to give Cannon a shot at starting? It’s hard to know for sure because as bad as Solder has been this year, I thought Cannon had been even worse.

It’s a level of protection and I’m sure Cannon’s new deal is incredibly incentive-laden. You can’t hate a Vollmer-Cannon-Fleming tackle group. Maybe there’s even an outside chance Vollmer flips to the left side? That might be a stretch but that’s where he played in college. Still, I think he’s one who could start to degrade quickly given his injury history, though he’s had a very solid year after a shaky start.

But yes, I think between Solder’s falling price tag, along with the rollover cap room and extra cap room, the Pats should have the funds to lock up Revis and McCourty.

I was really blown away by Siliga’s performance against the Chargers and I think that is in some part why they can consider shutting down Easley for the season. If he can keep that up he could be a beast down the stretch.

I also think we can look for the new guys to make similar jumps (or maybe just have a “breakout” game) like Blount did last year. That group includes Ayers, Branch and Wright to name just a few. What will be most interesting will be how the manage Ayers once Chandler gets back.

I’d also really like to see Jonas Gray get another chance to carry the load for a game. Maybe that has to wait until the division is (hopefully) clinched this weekend, then they’ll give Gray a ton of carries in the last two weeks. But I really like his burst out of the backfield and think it could be useful when the OL looks like they did against the Chargers.