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Archives for October 2012

Patriots pass defense continues scary trend against the deep ball

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One of the major problems for last year’s Patriots defense that seems to be rearing its ugly head again this year is the number of plays over 20-yards given up.

With the help of the Pro-Football-Reference.com play finder I took a look back over the last decade, since the first Super Bowl win, to see what the numbers have looked like since the rise and fall of the dynasty defense.

Granted the game is a bit different now, and passing offenses are far more dangerous now than they were when the Pats were winning Super Bowls, but I still found the numbers to be somewhat shocking.

Here are the numbers on plays over 20-yards given up since 2001, broken down per game to give a bit more context. Playoffs are included.

  • 2001: 70 = 3.7/game
  • 2002: 47 = 2.9/game
  • 2003: 53 = 2.8/game
  • 2004: 62 = 3.7/game
  • 2005: 64 = 3.6/game
  • 2006: 69 = 3.6/game
  • 2007: 51 = 2.7/game
  • 2008: 50 = 3.1/game
  • 2009: 55 = 3.2/game
  • 2010: 65 = 3.8/game
  • 2011: 93 = 4.9/game
  • 2012: 22 = 5.5/game

As you can see the numbers were the worst they’ve been in a decade in 2010 and have only gotten worse in the last two seasons.

One thing that is clear is that it’s the pass defense that is the problem. Even in 2011 they gave up just 6 runs of over 20-yards, leaving a staggering 87 passes over 20-yards. Since 2001 they’ve never given up more than 14 runs of over 20-yards and that happened in 2002. So the run defense has been basically unchanged. The issue is defending the deep ball.

Given that the Pats put up their highest sack totals (a somewhat flawed stat to be sure) in 2011 since 2007 you have to think at least a bit more of the focus for this problem has to go on the coverage. Of course the easiest place to start when you’re giving up a lot of long passes is the play of the safeties.

Now you can never read too much into one stat, but these numbers show a clear trend that illustrates a major part of the problems for the Patriots pass defense over the last few seasons. It’s an area to keep track of as 2012 progresses, and hopefully a trend they can reverse.

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Practice squad linebacker Jeff Tarpinian had the “championship belt” in his locker on Monday, which reflects he was likely picked by coaches as the top practice player of last week. Wondered if Tarpinian might get a promotion with Dont’a Hightower’s hamstring injury putting his status for Sunday’s game in question, but Comcast SportsNet reported veteran Bobby Carpenter is expected back instead. Carpenter’s experience on defense and special teams might have been preferred, especially given the chess match this week against Peyton Manning.

Emptying out some Patriots thoughts – New England Patriots Blog – ESPN Boston

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-blog-59/

Patriots soaring, except for secondary – Patriots – Boston.com

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Patriots soaring, except for secondary – Patriots – Boston.com

As always the must-read recap from Greg Bedard after reviewing the tape. Some interesting observations that are especially critical of the secondary, including Tavon Wilson, who hasn’t caught much flack. I can’t disagree with any of it, and it makes you wonder how badly Ras-I has fallen down the depth chart to be almost completely MIA the last three weeks. Well, things better improve back there this week, because even throwing wobblers Peyton Manning is a better quarterback than any the Pats have faced this season.

Besides that, the Patriots internally have to be doubling up efforts to get things corrected in the secondary because the sub packages on defense are ripe for exposure by the right quarterback and team. It can’t be sitting well with coach Bill Belichick that his defense, despite having more talent and time in the system for some players this season, is still giving up way too many explosive plays: seven of more than 20 yards (accounting for 56 percent of Buffalo’s 438 yards), and another nine for more than 10 yards.

Carpenter’s Return Not Necessarily Because of Hightower Injury :Pats Pub

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Carpenter’s Return Not Necessarily Because of Hightower Injury :Pats Pub

Good take from Steve:

The one glaring weakness for the Patriots front seven thus far this year has been the coverage gaps in the linebackers. I thought Carpenter did a good job with that this summer, which is why most all of the Pats beat writers had him on the team. Regardless of how long Hightower is out, if at all this week, Carpenter fills a valuable role. When the Patriots go to their sub-packages, Carpenter can hang with the tight ends much better than any of their starters. I think the coaches over-estimated the other LBers ability to cover. Carpenter’s return will remedy that quickly.

Broncos defense features classic 4-3 scheme with pass-rush flexibility – The Denver Post

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Broncos defense features classic 4-3 scheme with pass-rush flexibility – The Denver Post

Good stuff here on the Broncos defensive scheme.

That is the Broncos’ chief issue on defense at the moment. They have athletic players with plenty of speed like Dumervil, Miller, Woodyard and Trevathan. But to get those players on the field, they are taking out bigger players to do it. So, your astute quarterbacks will often see the lighter formation and change to running plays. And when things haven’t gone well for the Broncos defense in Fox’s tenure, it’s often because the Broncos can’t stop the run, or the tight end in the passing game with the smaller lineup. The Broncos succeeded in going a little smaller Sunday against the Raiders because they held the lead for much of the afternoon and didn’t allow the Raiders to run the ball effectively when the game was still in doubt. As a result, Oakland was in a pass-first most mode for much of the second half and the Broncos could go lighter on defense and know they would be in pass-rush situations almost without fail. The questions will arise when they try it against offenses when the run game is still an option.