The Patriots have been primarily in sub-package defense for the first three games (166 of 213 snaps, 78%) but I expect that to change today. The question is whether or not they’ll go into their 4-3 defense that we saw a lot of in preseason, or back to their traditional 3-4 defense that we actually have not seen them use since last season.
I believe it’s most likely they’ll use the 4-3 with an Ellis-Wilfork-Warren-Carter front, and Ninkovich-Spikes-Mayo at linebacker. Obviously McFadden is dangerous every time he touches the ball, so I believe the Patriots plan will focus heavily on Ninkovich and Carter and their ability to set the edge and keep McFadden inside. I am not flush with confidence that they will be able to do it for a full 60 minutes, but I do think the Patriots run defense is somewhat underrated as a lot of the yards on the ground they’ve given up have been in sub packages while trying to preserve a lead.
On the back end I expect the Raiders to take some shots down the field and they should. If Patrick Chung returns it should help the communication in the secondary. The pressure will be on Devin McCourty who has started his sophomore season in a slump and Kyle Arrington who will return to the starting outside corner position after playing there for most of 2010. It’s very possible this is the weekend McCourty starts to return to form. But I still expect the Raiders to challenge him, especially with the deep ball.
On the offensive side of the ball the Pats will feature a lot of spread formations, and it will be imperative for the offensive line to give Brady time. The Raiders front four are capable of getting pressure all on their own and that has caused the Pats problems in the past when the protection isn’t holding up (see Super Bowl 42). If the protection is okay I believe the Raiders will have three players they really need to focus on: Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Danny Woodhead.
Since the Raiders are primarily a man to man team, a “what you see is what you get” philosophy it’s pretty much a given that Brady will torch them as long as he has time. I don’t expect the Raiders to try to confuse him with multiple looks and that will be their downfall. Given the what the Jets were able to do with Dustin Keller I expect the Pats to try similar things with Gronkowski, especially down the seam.
Welker has been on fire and should probably draw the most attention, perhaps the Raiders will employ a similar “spy” technique like the Saints did a couple years ago, by having a second cover man who shadows and blasts him as soon as he catches it. Woodhead is one of the most interesting weapons to me in this game, especially if they can get him in space. Curious who the Raiders put on him, because it doesn’t appear they have a linebacker who can even come close to covering him.
Final Prediction: Pats 38-17
