This is pretty simple. The Patriots are one of the two or three best teams of the last decade. They dismantled the Jets less than two months ago. Before that game, their offense was far superior to that of the Jets; since that game, they’ve been better than New York on both offense and defense. They’ve had single-game DVOA above 40 percent in eight straight games. During that same period, only one team had as many as four games with DVOA above 40 percent (Tampa Bay, surprisingly). The Jets were one of the top ten teams in the NFL this year, yet they have had only four games above 40 percent all season.

There are ways for the Jets to win – a couple big special teams plays, or perhaps the Patriots’ defensive improvements turn out to be a mirage. Maybe the Patriots wake up on the same wrong side of the bed that they woke up on for their Week 9 game with Cleveland. But most likely, they will move on to host Pittsburgh or Baltimore in the AFC Championship.