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Turnovers

Pats Stats: Week 7 Update

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Jumping back into some Pats stats this morning and my favorite metrics are backing up most of what I’ve come to believe about this team. The improvement on the offensive side of the ball since the last time I did a stat check is impressive. The points, third down percentage and red zone percentage have all improved as Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon have assimilated into the attack.

The improvement on third down is most noticeable, as they’ve gone from 19th to 7th in just two games. The only negative for the offense are the continued turnovers, with 13 giveaways already this season. They had 12 total giveaways last season and have surpassed that number in less than half the 2018 season.

Defensively there’s still work to be done, especially on third down where they’ve continued to decline over the last two weeks from 26th to 27th. The points-per-game are really high too, but more on that in a moment.

  • Offensive Points: 30.6 – 4th
  • Defensive Points: 25.6 – 20th
  • Third Down Offense: 44.2 percent – 7th
  • Third Down Defense: 45.1 percent – 27th
  • Red Zone Offense: 69.2 – 7th
  • Red Zone Defense: 57.7 percent – 17th
  • Turnover Differential: +1 (14 takeaways, 13 giveaways)

As far as my Bend Don’t Break index, it’s a weird year:

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High Giveaway/Takeaway Rates Have Skewed 2018 Patriots Start

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If you only looked at the stats you might take a gander at Tom Brady‘s seven interceptions in seven games, realize he’s on pace for his most interceptions ever and jump to the ultimate Hot Take conclusion that the Brady decline has finally begun. Or, if you actually watched the games, you’d know that most of those were off tipped balls and really not Brady’s fault. Luckily, and somewhat surprisingly, I haven’t seen that Brady Hot Take, though I admittedly don’t watch sports TV or listen to sports radio.

This really sums up how I feel about the Patriots defense, who are once again getting thrown under the bus as they do every fall. It’s easy to talk people off the ledge when it comes to giving up yards, where the Patriots defense is 25th. Less easy are points, which even Bill Belichick has admitted is the important stat. They’re 20th in points allowed. But even more important than points is wins and the Patriots have won four-straight.

Talking people off the ledge when it comes to the defense has become exhausting for me, but this year it’s like they defensive worrywarts are back with a vengeance. Usually, these posts are a waste of time for me, because eventually things get sorted out, the defense goes on a dominant run and everyone calms their tits. But I feel like this defense is a special circumstance and a defense that I actually really like despite their flaws, which are real, but surmountable.

Let’s take a quick jump in on the defense and point out why the start to this season needs to be taken the same way Brady’s interceptions are taken, as a very specific set of circumstances that really don’t tell you who this defense is, and why those interceptions are a very big part of what has made things harder on the defense.

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Can Patriots Solve Takeaway Drought?

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I enjoyed watching the below video, taken from a presentation at Notre Dame that Matt Patricia gave. James Light has posted numerous excerpts from it, they’re all fabulous, but this one sparked my attention to a detail that has really flown under the radar with this Patriots defense — their lack of takeaways.


Outside of not forcing a turnover in their 2010 divisional loss to the Jets, this is the first time under Belichick the Patriots have failed to get a takeaway in the playoffs. And it’s not really that surprising for this Patriots defense. They’ve had just two takeaways in the last seven games, including zero in their last four.

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When your long snapper is dislodging the ball from the opposition, as Danny Aiken did on the third-quarter punt when he raced downfield in coverage, that’s when you know your team has a knack for creating ball disruption. The Patriots had four different times in which they ripped the ball out of the Colts’ grasp (recovering 1). Add those to the three interceptions, and it could have been a seven-turnover day. That’s seven real chances for a turnover, which is remarkable. This is part of their identity – they are really good at it.

Closing the book on Patriots-Colts – New England Patriots Blog – ESPN Boston

This is who this Patriots team is, living and dying on turnovers. It’s a slippery slope to winning football games, as we saw in 2010 when the Pats had a similar turnover ratio and when they faced the Jets in the playoffs the Jets were safe with the ball and won the game.

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