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Goodbye Trey Flowers and Trent Brown

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And just like that, they were gone.

I guess I forgot about how silly the “legal tampering period” is because the Monday mid-day news of the Patriots’ big fish signing elsewhere caught me a bit by surprise.

Trent Brown made it two years in a row that a Patriots free agent left tackle became the highest paid offensive lineman in the NFL, signing with the Oakland Raiders.

Trey Flowers followed Matt Patricia and Danny Amendola to Detroit, as the ex-defensive coordinator and GM Bob Quinn continue to put a Patriots stamp on the Lions.

Neither departure was all that much of a surprise. With tons of money to spend, everyone know free agency was going to be bonkers and Brown and Flowers were amongst the belles of the ball.

So what now for the Patriots?

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Patriots Roster Breakdown: Short and Long Term Needs

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As much as it pains me it’s time to post the 2019 roster depth chart including only players under contract. Yes, we’re kinda sorta on to 2019 but reserving the right to go back to Super Bowl 53 any time I want.

The first reset before embarking on free agency and the draft is to take inventory of the complexion of the team. The short terms needs for the 2019 campaign and then the long term needs as players depart for one reason or another.

Let run through the roster and take a quick temperature test at each position group.

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Pats Posits: How The 2nd Dynasty Defense Was Made

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5llGT42P8Mg&app=desktop

I took the last few days off from blogging Pats to just let the sixth Super Bowl win sink in and enjoy some of the various delights like the above episode of NFL Turning Point, my favorite of them all…so far.

Of course, Three Games to Glory VI will be on its way later this spring and as the proud owner of I-V, I’m excited to add to my collection.

As I’ve meditated on the win I’ve found myself more and more impressed with the defense. The turnover from the original dynasty defense is what got me started on this blog. Could Belichick replace Milloy, Law, McGinest, Samuel, Harrison, Vrabel, and Seymour with a second dynasty defense that could get Tom Brady another Super Bowl (or more)? I blogged and blogged wondering.

Well it’s clear now — Belichick did in fact build a second dynasty defense that matched the trio of the original core.

How did he do it? There isn’t a better topic to jump into in the Posits!

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Patriots Off-Season Reset

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As much as I want to fight the desire to turn the page to the offseason and enjoy the afterglow of the Super Bowl win as much as possible, the NFL schedule is relentless.

The scouting combine is just a few weeks away then comes free agency the draft, OTAs and once again, training camp.

We knew this offseason was coming whether the Pats won the Super Bowl or not. Trey Flowers is still the biggest piece of the puzzle, but how much have things changed since my in-season glance ahead now that the Pats are Super Bowl 53 champs?

Here’s a look at how the playoff run might’ve altered my outlook.

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 13 vs. Minnesota Vikings

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The Patriots return home for a brief road hiatus, taking on the 6-4-1 Vikings and unfamiliar opponent with plenty of quality pieces to challenge the thus-far inconsistent Pats. This next three-game set will essentially determine the Patriots road in the playoffs. A win at home this weekend, followed by road wins in Miami and Pittsburgh should solidify their position with a vital playoff bye. That would leave the only question as to whether they can make up one game on KC and get the top overall seed.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. This Vikings team will give the Pats everything they can handle. The stellar receiving duo of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen leads the way. Latavius Murray and Dalvin Cook are a nice one-two combo at running back, while Kirk Cousins won’t be afraid to come in and throw it around Gillette Stadium. But the biggest problem for the Pats though could come in the form of tight end Kyle Rudolph.

The veteran Patriot secondary doesn’t usually lay stink bombs at home, but if they do, it will likely be apparent by Rudolph being their biggest and most consistent problem.

Defensively the Vikings also have the pieces to take the Patriots offense head on. They’re 6th overall in DVOA, including 4th against the run and 8th against the pass.  They’re 10th in yards, 3rd in points. Basically, this is a top-10 defense and while the Patriots always have an advantage at home, no one should be expecting a walk in the park on either side of the ball.

Let’s dive into the gameplan.

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Patriots Third Down Deep Dive

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The Patriots offensive third-down conversion rate has slipped below 40 percent for the just the third time (2005, 2013) since 2001, while the third-down defense ranks 25th in the league with their worst rate since 2011. If you’re looking for a reason why the Patriots have sputtered at times in 2018, third down, aka the money down, is a great place to start.

Without Julian Edelman for the first four games, the offense also had to replace super-clutch Danny Amendola, as well as Dion Lewis who sparked them quite a few times last year. When Gronk was slowed with injuries, it just made it that much 2018’s offensive transition harder. The results are obvious, as this new iteration of the Brady offense hasn’t quite totally clicked yet.

The defense doesn’t quite have those excuses. Aside from losing Ja’Whaun Bentley this is pretty much the defense the Patriots brought into training camp. They’ve shown plenty of signs of being a total defense, but their inconsistencies, especially on the road have been maddening. Some speed bumps should be expected with Matt Patricia gone and Brian Flores in, but now is the time for them to lock in.

Overall, the 2018 Patriots are 14th on offense and 24th on defense on third down. The 2015 and 2016 teams combined were 4th on offense and 7th on defense. The offense’s last dip was 2013, when they fell to 16th. The defense hasn’t fallen to 2010 depths yet, when they ranked 32nd in the league, allowing a whopping 47.1 percent conversion rate. They’re just at 43.1 now, the same rate they had in 2011, but still hovering over the bottom third of the league.

2015 and 2016 were the height of the second generation Belichick Patriots and where the bar was set before injuries and departures started to add up in 2017. Those two years were the best run by the third down units on both sides of the ball since ’05-’06. Let’s take a look at how and where they’ve declined.

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Trey Flowers or Bust in Free Agency 2019

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Maybe this is the wrong time to take a look at the expiring contracts on the Patriots considering we’re coming off such a poor performance, but it’s the bye week and in just a few short months the free agents will be at the forefront of everyone’s mind no matter how the season ends.

The list of pending free agents has one big name at the top — Trey Flowers — and after him, and maybe Josh Gordon, is there anyone we’d be all that upset to see leave? Anyone who would truly hurt the Patriots a couple years down the road if they went elsewhere?

Let’s rundown the pending free agents, roughly ranked in order of importance current impact.

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