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Deflategate is Over, Tom Brady will Sit Four Games

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Tom Brady posted the below message on Facebook today, putting an end to Deflategate once and for all.

Tom Brady Deflategate

It’s hard to believe this thing dragged on for as long as it did, and you can revisit all the choice Deflategate posts from PatsPropaganda here. The 2014 AFC Championship seems like a lifetime ago now.

While it will suck not to have Brady for the first four games of the season, and my disgust for the NFL’s handling of the entire affair burns brighter than ever, I’m glad to get away from labor law. This blog has always been a football-first blog. Now we can go back to that. In fact, it really already started yesterday, taking a look at how Garoppolo is better prepared than Matt Cassel was in 2008, but faces a far more daunting slate of games.

Brady will sit those four games, one more lost draft pick will go by in April of 2017 and then Deflategate can fade into a footnote of Brady’s career. But it certainly sets the stage for one more necessary championship run. That fifth Super Bowl means everything now. Not only would it put Brady in a class by himself as a quarterback, it forces Roger Goodell to hand over the Lombardi trophy to Tom’s awaiting hands one more time.

That might be a hollow victory, watching Goodell Bot act like it’s no big deal. Like it was all business. That Brady doesn’t want to murder him. But it would mean something to all the Patriots fans who have passionately defended Brady from the start to get one more moment like that.

Now we can move on. Kind of. There will always be the idiots who make air pressure jokes. Who think this was about the Patriots and Brady cheating and not a corrupt NFL office. But when the NFL punishment circus comes their team’s way all we can say is “told ya”. I think more and more fans are aware of this now. John Cena’s joke at the ESPY’s confirmed that for me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00sRBDl1J2I

This is really nothing new for Patriots fans. We got through it with Spygate and we’ll get through it with Deflategate. Because we have the best coach, quarterback and team in the NFL and their run is not yet over.

I leave you with the first ever piece I wrote that got any internet attention. I wrote it over eight years ago and it’s just as true as ever.

Embrace the hate. We’re Darth Vader. And the rest of the NFL is living on Alderaan.

What does Cassel’s 2008 mean for Garoppolo?

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Cassel 2008

Cassel celebrates a third quarter touchdown pass during their 17-10 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Sunday, Sept. 7, 2008. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

One of the common refrains you’ll hear with Tom Brady potentially sitting the first four games of the 2016 season is “well Matt Cassel took the Pats to 11-5 in 2008, so Jimmy Garoppolo will be fine!” I agree to an extent, but I don’t think it’s that cut and dry and it’s worth taking putting that season into context and how different things will be in 2016.

We all remember that fateful opening game in 2008. The Pats were in white jerseys at home. Like Belichick’s SB42 way-too-short cutoff red hoodie something seemed off from the start. Then there were the big GU patches to honor Gene Upshaw that would forever make this game instantly recognizable. Brady hadn’t played at all in the preseason and Matt Cassel looked terrifyingly awful.

When Brady went down after Bernard Pollard dove into his knees then limped off the field, we knew it wasn’t good. Anyone who had watched the preseason thought we were dead meat with Cassel. But Cassel managed to put together a solid season, completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 3693 yards with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. That included two fourth quarter comebacks and two game-winning drives.

But the problem, as Bill Belichick said himself in his episode of A Football Life, was that the Patriots could not beat the good teams in the AFC. Their only win over an AFC playoff team was in Miami, in a Wildcat revenge game. They lost to the Steelers, Chargers and Colts, the only three teams outside their division that they faced with winning records, not including a 9-7 Cardinals team that never got off the bus in Foxboro. They feasted on the terrible AFC and NFC West divisions.

Had the Patriots faced a more daunting schedule, we likely wouldn’t have the 11-5 argument to make.

Still, Cassel did far better than anyone would’ve expected based on his preseason. He had a veteran cast of weapons around him including Wes Welker in his prime, Randy Moss and Jabar Gaffney. The defense however was at the end of the line. 2008 was their final gasp before the full turnover began the next offseason. Had Brady stayed healthy this probably would’ve been their downfall.

The 2016 Patriots are a little different. While they have a lot of veterans in place on offense, their defense is just hitting its prime. That’s what stands out to me most. The 2008 defense was not one that could singlehandedly win games. The 2016 should be.

Garoppolo also seems a far better fit for the Patriots’ offense at this stage. Simply put, he’s more talented than Cassel and his quick release should fit what the Patriots do with Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett extremely well. He also has some of the athleticism that Cassel displayed which gave teams used to facing the statue-esque Brady a new twist.

Garoppolo’s first TD pass.

Belichick and Josh McDaniels had to adjust on the fly when Brady went down. Now they have an entire training camp to cater the offense to Garoppolo’s strengths. This is vital because 2016’s schedule is far more daunting than 2008’s was. This is why the comparison is a hard one to make. There are six 2015 playoff teams on the docket this year, including two (Cardinals and Texans) which Garoppolo would have to face.

And the other two matchups against Miami and Buffalo feature defenses that would push even Brady to the limit. Luckily three of the first four are at home. That counts for a lot against defenses that love to blitz.

Garoppolo should be ready for this. Most quarterbacks are thrust into the fire long before they’ve had a chance to apprentice for two seasons under a Hall of Fame quarterback. And if the Patriots are ever going to be able to get something for Garoppolo, now is the time to showcase him.

Cassel’s 2008 has some similarities, but he was a less-talented player facing less-talented teams. He performed as you’d expect a Belichick-prepared player would, and probably would’ve made some noise in the playoffs had the Jets just beaten the Dolphins in Week 17, allowing the Pats in.

It’s a tall order for Garoppolo facing four very good defenses, but should be better prepared than Cassel was with all this time to prepare. I have no doubt Belichick will have Garoppolo ready to go with a plan that suits his strengths, which just happen to be very similar strengths to Brady’s.

And in the long run, getting a look at Garoppolo now is really what’s best for the Patriots organization.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KvrEZOaR6Q

Deflategate Day 535: En Banc Hearing Denied

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Deflategate En BancIt’s looking more likely that ever that Tom Brady will be sitting the first four games of the 2016 season. The second circuit court denied Brady and the NFLPA’s appeal for an En Banc hearing on Deflategate, leaving limited options for the defamed quarterback. Brady could try to take it to the Supreme Court, but he’s just about out of options.

For Pats fans, there are so many emotions. Everyone is sick of Deflategate. Even those of us who are apoplectic at the way the NFL treated their star player are ready to be done with it. And by now it’s easy to find the silver linings.

Jimmy Garoppolo is now poised to play at Arizona, vs. Miami, vs. Houston and vs. Buffalo. Three home games, but four defenses that are daunting. In the long term, it’s great for the Patriots to get a look at Garoppolo now, in his third year. Next offseason will be the last time the Pats could move Garoppolo and get something for him. So this will be an audition as much as anything.

And really, even with Brady, the Pats usually sputter a bit out of the gate. Even a 1-3 record wouldn’t be insurmountable, while 3-1 or 2-2 are usually par for the course anyway. So to the 31 teams who are reacting like the Bills, nah-nah-nah-poo-poo the Patriots are still going to be fine, not only this season, but for future seasons because they’ll truly know what they have in their backup QB.

Plus Brady gets a lighter training camp and shortened season which can only benefit the soon-to-be 39 year-old. He’ll have four weeks to stew and will be ready to unleash hell on the Cleveland Browns on October 9th, before making his first home appearance against the Bengals. I’m most curious how Brady studies the offense in those first four games, what he sees and how he can help implement ways to use new players like Martellus Bennett.

But it still sucks. The NFL played dirty from the start with this whole affair. From refusing to correct false information in the media, to planting lies in the media to support their version, to moving the goal posts after the appeal, the NFL was in it to win it the entire time. Forget the actual truth and evidence. They saw their chance to finally get those Patriots, and pulled out all the stops to make sure they prevailed.

Maybe Brady tries to go to the Supreme Court. He certainly has the legal team in place for it. Maybe, like many would love, he opens a defamation lawsuit against the NFL (that’s where things would get uber interesting). Or maybe this really is the end of a crazy charade that lasted over a year-and-a-half all over footballs that were .4% below what the Ideal Gas Law predicted they would be.

Brady (2) and Gronk (9) top NFL’s Top 100 of 2015

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The NFL wrapped up their Top-100 of 2015 last night with Tom Brady coming in second (to Cam Newton) and Rob Gronkowski coming in ninth. You’ll have to click through to YouTube to watch the segments (Brady / Gronk). While the NFL has taken great steps forward making their content available online, they still won’t let you embed their stuff. Baby steps I guess.

Of course there’s some outrage that Brady wasn’t number one, but as someone who really doesn’t invest much time or energy in rankings, I say whatevs. Brady was brilliant in 2015, his second season in three years where his offense was effectively dismantled by injuries. Even in games where he lost key guys and the team was deflated (sorry), he still produced.

Most QBs would’ve folded after seeing Gronk go down like he did in Denver. Not Brady. Still led an epic drive with scrubs to force OT. As we saw in 2014, with a little injury luck in 2016, the Pats will be hard to keep out of the Super Bowl. Brady’s shown no sign of slowing down.

Despite Brady’s brilliance, which, let’s face it, everyone’s used to, it’s hard to say this wasn’t Cam Newton’s year. Yeah I know he sucked in the Super Bowl, but Brady also sucked in the 2010 AFCDG after being the unanimous MVP of the regular season. He still was #1 on the Top 100 that year. Everyone loves new flashy objects. That’s what Cam was after his superstar breakout season, so kudos to him.

And what does it matter? Not a whole lot. At least we get an extended segment on Brady since he’s in the Top 10. Other than that I don’t really care who was ranked where.

As for Gronk, he clearly belongs in the Top 10. It’s especially encouraging that he’s had two healthy seasons after 2011-2013 all ended with him in major surgery and rehab. You need to look no further than the final drive of the AFC Championship to see how unstoppable Gronk is. Huge fourth-down catch, huge touchdown and was open for the two-point conversion as well. That was all him and Brady, in a huge moment, doing what Top-10 players should do.

At that point Edelman was on one leg and everyone knew it was going to Gronk. They still couldn’t stop it.

If Gronk has the same injury luck for the third year in a row, the Pats offense will once again be a mostly unstoppable force.

 

 


#1 – Tom Brady – The Top 100 Players of 2011 by joshespinoza2

Tweets of Note from Patriots OTAs

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We got our first glimpse of the 2016 Patriots on Thursday, albeit a depleted squad that was missing a lot of heavy hitters for whatever reason. Still, there’s some fun stuff to consider as we still sit two months out from the start of training camp.

Here are some tweets that stood out:

That’s a lot of firepower, but if you’re into panicking about guys missing from a practice in late May be my guest. Gronk, Harmon, Vollmer and Branch are probably the biggest surprises. There were no reports of offseason surgery for any of them, but at least with Gronk, there’s no need to risk any of these vets. They all know what they’re doing and at this point it’s probably better to let the new guys and rookies get more reps, especially with the first team.

That’s my quarterback. Enjoy it folks, it’s not going to last forever and we’re getting closer and closer to the end with each passing offseason. But for now… WE STILL GOT TFB!

Never put too much weight into any of this, but generally it sounds like they all looked pretty good and it’s always nice to see a rookie cornerback pop up with an interception in one of his first practices.

End of May? Don’t matter. BB wants everyone locked in at all times and this was probably a surprising first lesson for many newbies.

So, so excited to see what kind of damage Gronk and Bennett will do together this year.

Holy hoodie, how fast do DJ Foster’s legs go? That right there is some quickness.

Poetry in motion.

Flip Side of the Coin: Brady’s Suspension

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Let me start this post off by saying Tom Brady should not have to sit any games for the whole charade known as Deflategate. There’s no scientific proof the footballs were ever deflated. There’s no evidence Brady was the mastermind of a Deflation scheme. The whole thing was just an excuse to finally get back at Robert Kraft, Bill Belichick, Brady and the rest of the Patriots for both winning too much and the previous charade known as Spygate.

Boil it all down and you have shoddy science supported only by select text messages and the NFL’s skewed slant they did everything they could to sell to the public by any means necessary.

Brady having to sit out games for what the NFL put together in The Wells Report would be an injustice and a travesty…

But…

…if Brady were to sit out the first four games would it actually be in the best long-term interest of the Patriots organization?

I’m just asking the question because at this point, is anyone’s opinion on Deflategate going to change? If the courts finally rule he must sit and he does, will that suddenly mean he really was guilty? Or if it goes all the way to the Supreme Court and they throw the whole thing out, will that mean Brady was innocent?

Nope. Nothing that happens from here on out, no matter how long Deflategate continues to drag on, will change anyone’s mind about what did or didn’t happen. And really everything in the courts now is about process anyway. So if that’s the case is it okay to root for what’s best for the Patriots and (perhaps) Brady?

The benefits are easy.

The Patriots get four manageable games to see what Jimmy Garoppolo’s got. 2017 will be the last offseason the Patriots could move Garoppolo and get compensation for him. Let’s remember that even with Tom Brady, the Patriots aren’t world beaters in September. It’s just as easy to see a 2-2 start with Brady as it is with Garoppolo.

And though the first four games are against teams with some excellent defensive pieces, three of the four (excluding Carson Palmer and the Cardinals) are going to be adjusting to new pieces or new coaches. With the Patriots returning almost everyone on defense we should expect them to exert their will in these games and make them all winnable games for the offense.

The second thing is keeping Brady fresh (and pissed off). Giving Brady the first four games off will not only ensure that he’s rested and healthy come October, but chomping at the bit to get back out there and take his job back.

Brady knows how this works and what can happen when a young “fill in” quarterback seizes his opportunity and leaves the coaching staff with no choice but to stick with him. I’m not saying Garoppolo has that in him, but I’m sure Brady doesn’t want to leave it to chance.

But let’s ponder for a moment, what if Jimmy Garoppolo plays out of his mind? Benching Bledsoe was one thing, but keeping Brady on the sideline? That would be difficult to say the least, but it would be fascinating to see where Patriots nation falls between their beloved TFB and their franchise that will continue on long after TFB is gone. That might be a problem we don’t want to face yet.

I’m hoping Brady never misses a game for the Deflategate nonsense, and it sounds like chances are good he won’t have to, but if things break badly for him in his next appeal attempt it won’t be hard to find some silver linings that should benefit the Pats long term.

Is Tom Brady a Deflation Scheme Mastermind?

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I’m starting to come around on Tom Brady exhausting every available option in pursuit of his innocence in the Deflategate mess. Everyone’s sick of it? So what. Keep it in the news as it slowly convinces more and more of the masses what a massive hose job by the NFL it was. Still, there are plenty of emboldened folks out there convinced Tom Brady was a deflation scheme mastermind. I wonder what that really looks like, because even in trying to take off my Patriots-homer-pom-pom hat as Dan Shaugnessy suggested, I have trouble piecing together how a  Deflation Scheme Scenario would actually work.

These are the deflation scheme points that vex me:

1. Brady specifically directed Jastremski and McNally to secretly deflate the footballs after the refs checked them.

So Brady wanted the balls BELOW 12.5, which of course, was never actually said by anyone, but that’s the core assumption. After he meticulously chooses his gameballs, he’s fine with McNally stopping by a bathroom and haphazardly sticking a pin in all of them. The flatter the better? How low can the PSI before it starts affecting throws? Ever try to throw a flat football? Any benefit of a slightly softer ball will eventually be offset by the inaccuracy it causes.

Even if you buy the entirety of the Wells Report, and specifically the Exponent study, as fact, do you know how much air McNally let out of the balls in that bathroom? .4%  How is it even possible to let that little amount of air out, much less necessary?

And why of all games would anyone want flat footballs in a cold, rainy 2014 AFC Championship game? Secretly deflating the Colts balls, I’d get. But your own? Flatter footballs in the cold and rain? That makes no sense to me and if anything, I’d imagine Brady would want to kill McNally if he really did what the NFL surmises. That’s why it’s no wonder Brady played better with balls that were re-inflated.

Wouldn’t it have been even more fun if they re-measured the balls at the end of the game and holy shit, they’re below 12.5 again!!! How did the Patriots do it!?!?!

2.  Texts from McNally: calling self the Deflator, saying he’s not going to ESPN yet, “stress getting them done”, etc.

There’s no way around these texts and they’re the core evidence sited by any Low Information Deflategator, Michael Felger, Shaugnessy and all the rest of ’em. Without these texts there’s nothing to build any case at all.

But here’s the thing(s) they all want to ignore:

McNally Deflate TextJastremski’s texts to his fiancee, “Panda”, that said the balls were supposed to be at 13 PSI after the November 2014 Jets game? Why would he have any reason to lie about it to her? And clearly this was a big deal, and seemingly a novel problem from him to share it with his beloved Panda. If there was a Deflation scheme, this would’ve been a problem yes, but entirely McNally’s fault and probably somewhat expected if he failed to get the air out of them.

Or what about McNally’s text to Jastremski during the 2014 Packers game? McNally was in New Hampshire, texting Jastremski on the Green Bay sidelines to “deflate and give somebody that jkt”.

This at least signals to me that “deflate” was a slang term to them. Not saying I totally buy the Patriots’ explanation it was a weight loss thing, but they are using it in a ball busting way. And as anyone who has ever texted knows, it’s often a cavalcade of inside jokes, ball busting and slang.

You can’t accept the some texts as the foundation of your argument and then simply ignore the rest that contradict it, or at least provide a little more context.

The asking for swag and threats to blow the footballs up like “balloons” don’t really bother me. Anyone who’s ever been around a pro sports team knows shits getting signed and given away constantly, especially to part-time employees who aren’t getting paid shit. And as mundane as it seems, Jastremski and McNally’s entire professional relationship was about footballs. So yes, that’s what they joked about even if McNally was technically employed to assist the referees.

Let’s also remember this is absolutely everything Ted Wells could drum up. Just a few vague text messages that came months apart. If there was truly a living-breathing Deflation Scheme afoot I’d think there’d be more than there this. Especially after the November 2014 Jets game that McNally would have had to have screwed up by failing to Deflate.

3. Timeline?

I still don’t understand what the NFL’s time line is. All the texts and testimony about the Patriots and PSI go only back to the November 2014 Jets game. The “deflator” text came in May 2014. So on one hand the Wells Report is saying plans went into place in the fall, but are also implying that something “deflate-y” was going on before that as well.

But we’re not sure that Brady et al even knew what the exact PSI rules were prior to November 2014. From all the text messages and testimony that Jets game was significant and the first time Brady and Jastremski actually discussed PSI numbers.

So we’re to believe that Brady was just telling McNally: “Make sure they’re pretty flat? How flat? I don’t know, just stick that fucking needle in them and hold it there, a-one, a-two and then we’re good. You can have unlimited Uggs and autographs.” That’s what went down?

And again, Brady’s supposed to totally trust Jim McNally, the gameday employee, to execute this plan with his carefully selected balls? That’s what the Deflation Scheme-ists believe? It does seem exciting and sinister but I can’t not see the holes in it.

 

What if Jastremski ordered the code red?

This is a scenario where I can almost buy a Deflation scheme: Jastremski telling McNally to make sure the balls were never too over-inflated, even if he has to let a little air out of them with a secret needle. McNally gets favored nation status with the Brady swag and they make sure Tom never knows the gameday employee is messing with his precious game balls.

Jastremski knows Tom likes them a little flatter and knows the refs often mess with them so he employs McNally to apply any means necessary, especially if the ref puts air into them during his review. They start at 12.5, then McNally makes sure they at least stay there, maybe get even lower. Every (home) game. (McNally doesn’t work on the road)

So this Code Red scenario doesn’t matchup with Jastremski’s 13 PSI Panda text, but it takes Brady out of the equation and at least makes the other texts matchup. But it also makes the November 2014 Jets game solely a major fuck up by McNally, by failure to deflate after the ref’s over-inflate. Seems like that kind of mess up would certainly be worthy of some “WTF Bird, U didnt dflt!” texts, but there were none of those.

So yeah, this theory doesn’t exactly work either.

Jastremski ordering the code red is as close as I can get to believing the Deflation Scheme theory. I just can’t buy that Brady knew and trusted McNally to actually deflate footballs every (home) game, no matter the conditions. For someone so particular about the feel of his balls, I can’t imagine Brady thought McNally pinning the balls gave him a consistent known advantage. It’s far too haphazard and it seems like there’s a far great chance of screwing up the balls that Brady already picked out.

But what it all comes back to is why? Why would Tom Brady even want to deflate his footballs below the legal limit? There are those who would have you believe slightly deflated balls are never dropped nor fumbled, but you’d certainly never want an even flatter ball in a cold and wet weather game.

Even I can admit the Wells Report has those text messages from McNally which can easily fit into a Deflation Scheme theory. But the other text messages muddy those waters just enough to add doubt that it’s as easily cut and dry as some believe it is. I know the Patriots are always looking for an edge, even if it’s a gray area of the rule book, but a deflation scheme seems like it has just as much potential to have adverse effects as it does giving any kind of advantage.

Of course the Deflation Scheme-ists won’t try to explain any of this. Those few texts from McNally (and not the other texts) are enough for them to buy an entire plot, despite zero hard evidence of anything happening in this game or any other game. Despite Tom Brady being the only person in this whole charade to testify under oath.

None of this will ever add up to me, and that’s why I continue to truly believe there never was a deflation scheme.