PatsPropaganda

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Ryan Mallett

Anatomy of Draft Value: What became of the Patriots 2007 28th overall pick?

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As the first round of the 2007 NFL draft wound down, the New England Patriots still had needs to fill. They had just lost in the AFC Championship in disappointing fashion to the Indianapolis Colts and the fans across Patriots nation were calling for more weapons to surround Tom Brady with.

The Pats had already taken safety Brandon Meriweather with the 24th overall pick that they had gotten for Deion Branch, and now could have their choice of any of the wide receivers who were about to be drafted in the next 18 picks: Anthony Gonzalez, Craig “Buster” Davis, Sidney Rice, or Dwayne Jarrett.

Instead the Patriots did what they almost always do, they traded down and began a journey of value returns from that pick that would continue through the next four drafts.

The initial trade was with San Francisco and gave the Patriots a 1st round pick the following year, as well as a 4th rounder in 2007 (110th overall). These two picks would net the Pats two star players.

The 2008 first rounder pick ended up getting traded down from 7th overall to 10th overall, netting the Patriots future defensive captain Jerod Mayo and future PatsPropaganda boo Shawn Crable. While a bust, Crable did give the “We Need Pass Rush!” crowd a glimmer of hope for a few seasons.

But it was the 2007 110th overall pick that would end up making history for the Pats. They flipped that 4th round selection to the Raiders for Randy Moss and we all know how that ended up going. Moss set the receiving TD record in 2007, and closed out a four year Patriots stint with 50 total touchdowns.

In 2010 the Patriots traded Moss to the Vikings in exchange for a 2011 3rd round selection, which ended up being the 74th overall pick where they took QB Ryan Mallett. Who knows what Mallett’s career with the Patriots will hold, but with him carries the legacy of the 2007 28th overall pick.

So to sum up the Patriots have thus far gotten the following out of that first round selection that they chose to trade to the 49ers who took Joe Staley with it:

  • Randy Moss
  • Jerod Mayo
  • Shawn Crable
  • Ryan Mallett
  • 2016 6th Round Pick (for Mallett via Houston)

That is what value drafting is all about.

PatsPropaganda’s Patriots Draft Research Self Evaluation

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This was our most extensive year researching and discussing the draft, and like all good teams/bloggers you must be critical with your self-evaluation if you want to improve.

This is the sixth draft that I obsessed over from a Patriots perspective. Prior to that I just looked at the list of draftees and tried to make sense of it. But the five previous drafts have definitely been an education, so I was hoping that this year I could get 75% of the Patriots picks on my Patriots-only Big Board.

This will be a review of how I did, and why I missed who I did. This will include reflections on my Patriots-only Big Board and Patriots-only Mock Draft.

17. Nate Solder

Patriots-only Big Board Rank: 12

Solder was definitely one of my favorite Patriots prospects. I mentioned him in every non-PatsProp article I wrote for other sites, and I had him as 33rd overall pick in my Pats-only mock. Had him a little lower than he actually went, but otherwise I nailed this one. Solder stood out to me as a Vollmer clone, and I thought the Patriots could allow him a year to develop. He has great size and athleticism and that is always tempting for BB given what the Pats ask their OL to do.

33. Ras-I Dowling

Patriots-Only Big Board Rank: 28

I also nailed Ras-I in my Patriots-only mock, albeit having him in the 74th overall slot. He seemed to me the classic guy who falls because of injury ala Brandon Tate, thus setting him up to be an excellent value pick. Dowling fit the exact need I’ve talked about most of the spring… a rookie DB who can play some sub packages in year one, but eventually projects to Free Safety where he could replace Brandon Meriweather and/or James Sanders since both of their contracts are up after 2011. Going two for two, though much higher than I predicted, was a pretty solid start out of the gates.

56. Shane Vereen

Patriots-Only Big Board Rank: 36

I thought the Patriots would definitely tap a running back in the second or third round, however I chose Johnny White at 92 instead of Vereen who was ranked 5 spots higher on the big board. I went with White because he was a similar situation to Dowling in that he battled injuries this past season, thus dropping his ranking. 3 for 3 on the big board, 2 for 3 on the Pats-only mock.

73. Stevan Ridley

Patriots-Only Big Board Rank: 53

Nobody saw back to back running backs here, but Ridley was definitely a guy on our radar that we saw as a fit. Tough to nail this pick in the mock but it would’ve been a disappointing miss if he had not been on the big board.

74. Ryan Mallett

Patriots-Only Big Board Rank: UNRANKED

We didn’t have any quarterbacks on our big board, not because we didn’t like any of them, because we just figured it’d be a shocker if they took one. Would we have had Mallett on there even if we included QBs? Probably not. So our first miss.

138. Marcus Cannon

Patriots-Only Big Board Ranking: UNRANKED

I wrote off Cannon early in the process for reasons I’m still not entirely sure of, but there’s a nice little X next to him in my PFW draft guide. But looking back now his unique frame and set of abilities should have pinged my Patriots radar more than it did. I consider Cannon my biggest miss of the draft.

159. Lee Smith

Patriots-Only Big Board Ranking: UNRANKED

I’m frustrated that I missed Smith because I included another Tight End Luke Stocker for the same reasons that made Smith appealing. I put him on based on this: has the frame, tenacity and strength to develop into a powerful run blocker. Stocker is a blue collar-type player. Sounds just like Smith’s description, huh?

194: Markell Carter & 219: Malcolm Williams

Patriots-Only Big Board Ranking: UNRANKED ON BOTH (OBVIOUSLY)

I’m putting the last two picks together, because clearly they were outside of the box for everyone. I mean if Williams himself didn’t even think he’d get drafted how would I have any clue he’d get drafted. Neither are listed or ranked in any of the places I did all my research. So it’s a pass in that I’m not frustrated that I missed them, but nonetheless, I missed them.

Final Stats

Patriots-Only Mock: 2 of 9 draftees

Patriots-Only Big Board: 4 of 9 draftees ranked

Positions Drafted: 5 of 9 correctly projected (missed TE, QB, 2nd DB, 2nd RB)

The numbers don’t jump off the page exactly, and I believe that Cannon, Smith and even Mallett should’ve potentially be hits for me. It really should’ve been 6 out of 9. Nailing Solder and Dowling in the Patriots-only mock was surprising to even myself, and is definitely something to build on.

Each year I feel like I learn a little more and that was taken to a new level this year. Watch out in 2012!

New England Patriots 2011 Draft Review

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I’m not really a draft “grade” guy, because it’s never really clear what people are grading. Are you grading the overall talent of the draftees? The value of the picks? How well needs were addressed? 90% of this stuff can’t really be commented about until December 2011 at the earliest. Most people are just grading based on their own personal opinion of the draftees anyway.

So let’s just start with overall impressions of the Patriots 2011 draft. As I’ve said before I’m kind of pleasantly surprised that they hit on every area of need.

A tackle and a guard of the future were added. Who knows how soon Solder and Cannon will contribute but all indications are that they’ll join with Sebastian Vollmer to take the offensive line into the next decade. And they’re all “outside the box” huge and athletic. There are the roots of something special there now.

The approach to drafting two runningbacks is similar to the one taken last year when they took two tight ends. Running back was one of the greatest places of mid-round depth this year, so the Patriots took their two favorites early to ensure they got who they wanted. As Erik Frenz pointed out on our podcast Vereen and Ridley are different backs and should contribute in different ways.

I’d argue that New England has one of the most intriguing offensive backfields in the NFL now, with a number of backs who have unique skills to play any kind of game. And let’s not forget if the NFL manages to get to an 18-game season having quality runningback depth will be more important than ever.

Then you add Lee Smith, another monstrer, with Gronk and Hernando and the tight end group looks similarly diverse and capable of playing any style.

So before we go to the defensive side of the ball let’s just take a step back and look at the offense that the Patriots of the next decade will have. It all begins up front, and with Vollmer, Solder, Cannon, Gronk, and Smith you have five enormous men who will be able to get a push against any one.

This is a New England offense that will be able to play any kind of game… ground and pound? No one’s line/tight ends are bigger. Spread passing attack? Um, TFB anyone? From a football nerd x’s and o’s standpoint this is the kind of thing to get really excited about.

At first I was surprised by the selection of Ryan Mallett but it’s slowly grown on me to be one of my favorite picks. You never know what will happen when you put a raw quarterback with a rifle arm in a perfect football situation. Everyone wants to speculate what the endgame of Mallett/Hoyer/Brady will be, but it doesn’t really matter. The Pats have three quarterbacks that some teams would kill to have any of. Let it all play out, and know that the team is safe from even the worst case scenario.

The Pats took only three defenders in this draft class and two of them were taken at the exact positions that they needed most – CB with FS potential and OLB. While I thought the Pats would take one of the many talented defensive ends in this draft class, it was more based on what I perceived as value at 17, not because I thought that defensive end was a hugely glaring need.

Ras-I Dowling looks like yet another great value pick, and he could very well be our starting free safety in 2012. Hopefully we’ll get at least some nickel corner/third safety play out of him in 2011 as he learns the defense.

The Pats finally did take an outside linebacker in Markell Carter, but because most of the draftniks out there didn’t know much about him he’s being somewhat dismissed. But looking at the one YouTube video that’s out there of him, along with some of his quotes, it appears he’s right in the wheelhouse of what the Pats look for at OLB. I just look forward to seeing how it plays out with Carter, Eric Moore, Ninkopoop, TBC, and any free agents they potentially bring in.

They might not have used a high pick on an OLB but that doesn’t mean the pass rush will not be better in 2011 than it was in 2010. Reasons:

  • Ty Warren returns, allowing Mike Wright/Myron Pryor to focus more on interior pass rush and not base down run stopping.
  • Wright/Pryor should also be healthy.
  • Leigh Bodden returns. Better coverage equals additional moments for pass rush to get there.
  • Jermaine Cunningham should take a step forward, and should be healthy.
  • Ras-I Dowling adds another presence in the secondary which again equals more time for pass rush to get to the QB.
  • Eric Moore showed some real pass rush ability in the final five games of 2011. With a year in the system he could take TBC’s job.
  • Getting pass rush is never as easy as just drafting a pass rusher. It’s a combination of elements, a number of which are guaranteed to improve in 2011 just based on getting healthy alone.

Finally the Pats made a signature pick of a special teams guy Malcolm Williams, who didn’t even think that he’d get drafted. Some people may think BB makes this picks just to show off or make a point, but as we see every year, teams who don’t draft with special teams in mind won’t make it very far even if they have the best offense and defense in the NFL.

In closing, this was a surgical strike draft for the Patriots. Clearly they had their list of prospects that they liked, but they weren’t blown away by the overall talent especially at the position that they might’ve needed most.

If you graded their draft on getting players at a great value that will ensure the long term sustained success of the organization then I don’t know how they don’t get an A. How many teams would be good if only they had an offensive line? If only they had a competent quarterback? Those are problems the Patriots won’t have any time soon.

The true grade of this draft class won’t be known for a few years, but on paper it looks like it’s yet another classic Patriots value draft, taking the best talent at the best price. It might not be an “immediate upgrade” draft, but if you’re trying to rely on the draft to take you over the hump you might never get over it.

Patriots select RB Stevan Ridley and QB Ryan Mallett

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Welp it wouldn’t be a Patriots draft weekend if I wasn’t blown away at least once and here I was blown away on back to back picks.

First we have Ridley who is very much a Pats style running back, even though they already selected Vereen. That makes for a very crowded backfield and that’s even if Kevin Faulk, Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris don’t return.

Ridley was on my big board in the bottom 20 and unranked.

Mallett is very much a prototypical passing quaterback who physically reminds of Bledsoe meets Brady. But the true question is whose decision making he’s closer to.