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posits

Pats Posits: Was it not blow out-y enough for you?

October 19, 2015 by Mike Dussault

The New England Patriots are 5-0 coming off another win over the Indianapolis Colts, but I’m sure if I were to tune into the Boston media this morning there’d be much complaining that the Pats didn’t score 100 points like everyone thought they would because REVENGE!

I never really bought into this being an easy Pats blow out because the Colts needed this game and were at home and their talent level is a lot higher than they’ve been playing. Seemed to me like a perfect time for the Colts to turn in their first solid performance against the Pats during the Andrew Luck era and guess what? They did.

The Colts did pretty much everything you need to do to beat the Patriots, at least in the first quarter. They didn’t turn the ball over. They had long sustained drives. They tried some trick plays. But it still was not enough. The Patriots were still just a little more prepared and made just a few more plays that ended up being the difference.

The win comes as more injuries continue to hit New England hard. It’s crazy to think just a couple weeks ago the Pats had near-perfect health and everyone was considering 16-0. Now I think we can put that talk on the backburner, even if it is still technically possible. 

Maybe yesterday’s win wasn’t as satisfying as we hoped it might, but a win is a win, and the Colts embarrassing themselves with that fake punt will certainly provide enough comical attention at their expense that a 50-points blowout would’ve.

What matters now are the two divisional games in the next 10 days, where really the season will be cemented or put into some uncertainty. The Jets will provide plenty of challenges, but first here are my Posits from the win over the Colts.

Sometimes I feel like the sign of a good opposing gameplan is when Danny Amendola has a bunch of catches like he did yesterday. Amendola is the kind of guy who doesn’t get much credit but just keeps coming through when his number is called. He’s probably gone next season and I think losing him will be harder to overcome than many realize at this point. 

Can’t tell for sure until I take a look at the All-22 but it seems like in the first half there was a lot of mixing coverage going on, and it seemed to skew a little more heavily toward zone. Might’ve been why they gave up a couple long drives. But in the second they seemed to switch to more man and that made a lot of difference. Man defense continues to be a necessity and this week against the Jets will really put that to the test.

But great adjustments all around at halftime for the defense. They forced 4 punts and 2 turnover-on-downs in the second half before the 8-play, 85-yard touchdown drive that made things interesting at the end. Only four drives the entire game lasted longer than 6 plays. All things considered, that’s impressive.

Gostkowski is so reliable – he’s now hit  21 straight field goals. With the new kicking rules throwing a lot of kickers in the league off, it’s nice to know we have one who is the model of consistency.

Dion Lewis fell back to earth a little bit, at least on the stat sheet. Probably should’ve expected that at some point. I’m curious to look what kind of attention the Colts game him, but there was not much space out there for him to work his magic.

Jeff Howe mentioned this morning that Edelman’s finger that NBC kept harping on, has been a thing for a while now. But it was a convenient talking point after Edelman had a couple drops and the bobble that led to an interception. Edelman remains one of those bulletproof guys though. Yeah, he’s had some strange brainfart moments this season, but he still keeps coming through with tough catches in big spots – including that huge 4th down run with the game still in question.

Really thought the defense missed Hightower because he and Collins work so well together. When the Colts saw the Pats in man coverage and Collins on the RB, they’d run him out to the boundary, taking Collins out of the box and minimizing his effect, especially taking away his threat of blitzing. They can’t do that when Hightower is in there because they’re both so good attacking downhill.

The developments on Mayo continue to show that he’s not ready for a major role and I wonder why he didn’t start the year on PUP. Might be one of those rare instances it’s mostly a leadership thing? Because he doesn’t seem to be progressing or making any plays. Freeny is a stopgap at best, making me think Dane Fletcher could be a valuable addition if Hightower has to miss extended time.

Vollmer flipping to LT and Fleming coming in at RT when Cannon went down shows why it’s so important to have experienced depth at the tackle spots.

Speaking of injuries, Ian Rapoport reports neither Cannon nor Sheard’s dings are serious. That’s critically good news, especially for Sheard who also seemed to have a quiet game before going out.

However the early signs are not good for Matthew Slater who had to be helped off. That would be a big blow to the special teams and in the leadership department.

Speaking of special teams, that Colts fake punt thing was obviously a highlight. But it just shows how well-prepared New England was. The fact that the Patriots didn’t panic, didn’t call a timeout, just adjusted and waiting for the Colts to do something, that’s what played a big part in forcing them to snap the ball. Can’t believe they snapped it.

Two onsides kicks and the Pats recovered both. These kind of plays don’t get headlines but if they had gone the other way so could’ve the game.

Why is it that Scott Chandler can’t see to make the plays for us that he always seemed to make against us. He had his moments last night, good and bad, but I’m still waiting for him to really round into the potent threat we all thought he could be in the red zone when paired with Gronk.

The thing about the Patriots’ offense is that it’s just a matter of time. You get that inevitable feeling that even when they have to punt, they’ll be right back the next drive with a strong effort. The only problem was they went to sleep in the second half when they should’ve put one more scoring drive together to ice things. That’s a bit concerning and surprising considering I didn’t think they’d hesitate to step on the Colts’ throat at the end.

Logan Ryan deserves some credit now that he’s everyone’s favorite cornerback to complain about. In the grand history of Belichick’s Patriots corners Ryan is one of the better ones and seems to be really be taking some positive strides now that he’s been elevated on the depth chart. He’s going to get all he can handle this weekend against the Jets.

Dominique Easley had maybe his best pass rushing game of his career in this one. PFF had him for eight pressures in 21 pass rush snaps. Easley’s emergence had a big part to do with the second half turnaround for the defense and it shows why they needed a player like him so badly.

I do think it’s clear that the offense needs LaFell. Keshawn Martin isn’t a threat and when teams key on Edelman and Gronk, they need more than just Amendola to counter. All signs are pointing toward LaFell hopping right into things (no pun intended about his foot injury), and his downfield blocking and physical presence will instantly give the Pats a new dimension.

Chandler Jones is another guy who really stepped up in second half, getting consistent pressure. That was huge without Sheard to spell him and Nink. It was strange to see the ‘13/’14 throwback of Chandler/Nink playing near every snap. 

Finally Jamie Collins’ blocked PAT was just the latest freak play we’ve seen him make and let’s remember how big that could’ve ended up being if the Colts had gotten the onsides kick back. Instead of going for a touchdown to win, they would’ve needed to go for two to win after Collins’ big play. 

Filed Under: Pats Posits, Uncategorized Tagged With: analysis, new england patriots, pats posits, posits

Pats Posits Tuesday Edition: Around the League and Is the Pressure off TB/BB After SB49?

October 13, 2015 by Mike Dussault

Getting ready to jump into the All-22 as soon as it’s posted and looking forward to focusing on Dallas’ defensive effort to stop the Patriots as well as the Pats’ usage of Devin McCourty
on defense as it seems his role is evolving a bit.

– One thing that’s been on my mind is how winning Super Bowl 49 seems to have taken some of the pressure of TB and BB and now they’re just able to relax and do what they do. Maybe I’m reading too much into it, or maybe it’s just my own personal feelings, but even with the Deflategate stuff there’s a renewed sense of calm around this Patriots team. Or perhaps it’s just renewed faith that what they’re doing works. Hopefully it continues to translate into the winter months.

– Great win by the Bengals this past weekend, coming back on Seattle to move to 5-0. I know they’ll never be Super Bowl favorites until they win a playoff game but in a league where there’s not as much parity as some might have you believe, I think the Bengals are going about it the right way. 

Too many teams are in a constant cycle of hiring coaches, drafting quarterbacks, throwing those quarterbacks immediately into the flames and then as soon as they fail everyone is out and the process starts over. But the Bengals have stuck with their coach and quarterback despite whatever flaws the national media wants to point out. 

There are only so many truly elite quarterbacks out there. It’s impossible to try to model a franchise after the Patriots. Instead the Bengals are smartly sticking more to a Giants model. No, they don’t have Brady or Manning but they’ve had enough continuity that they’ve settled in as a very good football team. 

They’ve also drafted well and in all the right spots in a similar way that I would do it. Only take a non-linemen in the first round if they’re a can’t miss (AJ Green). Don’t reach for a quarterback. Focus on winning the trenches and you’ll be okay. The Bengals might just have an Eli-Giants Super Bowl run in them one of these years if they just stay the course. They have all the right talent at the right spots, just comes down to their quarterback putting together three or four mistake-free games. 

Too many teams don’t try to build this kind of team, instead blowing things up over and over because they don’t turn into a 12-win team season after season. 

– The next three games will tell us a lot about the Patriots. We really need to see them handle adversity and I’d bet some is coming with the Colts, Jets and Dolphins coming up. At the quarter point of the season we’re just starting to understand what the Patriots have – and if they stay healthy I think they could be a better overall team than last year’s edition. But there will be a team to poke some holes in the Patriots unbeatable facade and how they respond is what will define this edition of the Pats.

– Are the Broncos the worst 5-0 team in league history? Look, their defense is great but I don’t think anyone is scared of Peyton Manning as the weather gets worse. Do the Broncos even want homefield in the playoffs? Seems their best bet would be to hope they have to go to Indy’s dome. Still, I can’t wait to see the chess battle between Brady and the Broncos D next month.

– I don’t even really dislike any of the Colts players, no, I want a win this weekend specifically for their management, ownership and group of outspoken self-righteous fans and media members who were so vocal during the offseason. I will try to refrain from overconfidently thinking this will be an easy beatdown. The Colts are bound to put together a good game against us sooner or later, but I’d be shocked if New England doesn’t bring their A-plus angry game this Sunday.

Filed Under: Pats Posits, Uncategorized Tagged With: analysis, new england patriots, posits

Pats Posits: Lil’ Bit of Adversity in Dallas

October 12, 2015 by Mike Dussault

It had pretty much been smooth sailing for the New England Patriots
through the first three games of their season. But in Dallas things weren’t quite as easy as they had been and the offense struggled for extended periods to protect Tom Brady
.

The quick throws weren’t there early on but the Patriots offense remained patient and eventually found spots to exploit Dallas’ defense. 

The Patriots’ defense looked every bit as dominant as you’d hope they’d look going against this depleted Cowboy offense. But you can never dismiss a great defensive performance in the NFL and that was what this was.

image

There were plenty of times no-name QBs threw for lots of yards on the Patriots defenses of 2010-2012. This is a different defense, and one that is possibly better than last year’s because of their array of pass rush options. 

There were questions about the run defense coming into this one, but it’s clear the Pats can stop the run when they want to. All the edge players were strong and the inside tackles didn’t give up a lot of ground. 

Most exciting of all was seeing the Pats play some press man like they did last year. They’ve played plenty of man defense this year, but haven’t tried to be physical at the line of scrimmage. That changed against the Cowboys and never allowed Weeden to find a rhythm through the air.

Now the stage is set for a visit to the Colts on prime time next Sunday night (followed by my yearly Pats excursion to the Jets game). It will be a fun two weeks of football. But first, the Posits…

Dont’a Hightower and Nate Solder.
That’s all I really care about coming out of this one. Yes, we saw Brady take a beating and bounce back strong, but there hasn’t really been a significant injury in a while. Hightower looked in clear pain, and I can’t imagine something like a broken rub doesn’t take at least a couple weeks. Solder spoke to the media afterwards, so that’s a good sign. And really, Cannon wouldn’t be that bad.

No season is without adversity and this team has yet to really face any. On one hand you’re just waiting for something bad to happen, but sigh relief when no one gets carted off. Hopefully Hightower is back sooner than later and the health train can keep chugging.

A lot to like from the defense, who have really been sparked by Jabaal Sheard. He’s the finisher they’ve really needed to rotate in with Ninkovich and Chandler Jones. Sheard gets used all over the place. All were strong on the edges and with their rushes.

Jamie Collins is on everyone’s next superstar list and he keeps living up to those expectations. He’s simply all over the place on defense, making plays at every level with raw athleticism, speed and length.

Hard not to love the Pats showing some aggressive press man coverage and actually doing okay with it. That will need further evaluation this week. Seemed like there might’ve been more McCourty closer to the LOS, and Jordan Richards got more playing time this week after a strong debut against the Jags.

Malcolm Butler seemed like he made Terrance Williams invisible. Now it’s Terrance Williams, but still.

Jerod Mayo is likely about to be thrown into the fire and I’m not sure he’s ready for it. As soon as Bostic is ready to go, it should make for an interesting situation. Healthy Mayo is still better than Jonathan Freeny, but not by much.

Need to dive into the numbers this week, but I have some concerns about the short yardage game on both sides of the ball. 

Wasn’t a big Easley game but I saw him blow up a run pretty well. Curious the snaps on him and the rest.

image

Dion Lewis
, I’m running out of things to say. What an electric, exciting player and he just keeps blowing minds and breaking ankles! Brady targeted him 11 times, more than Gronk and Edelman combined. Every time you think he’s about to go down he gets three more yards.

I’m okay with continuing the OL rotation going a bit longer, it’s why they’ll be fine has to miss time. Cannon catches a lot of crap but when he’s had to step in and start he’s been fine. It’s the experimenting at guard and the quick rotation in at tackle when he plays poorly. 

That’s a good Cowboys front and they had a good gameplan. All the tackles were beat, but it’s the inside I’m more curious to focus on. The OL will be fine.

Edelman had a couple brain farts and a couple clutch plays. Bit of a trend this season, but he’ll clean it up. Brandon LaFell will come back at a good time as neither Keshawn Martin nor Aaron Dobson can replicate his presence.

Yes, I turned the page to the Colts pretty quick. The North East Remembers.

Filed Under: Pats Posits, Uncategorized Tagged With: analysis, new england patriots, nfl, patriots, pats, posits

Pats Posits: If Not Now, When?

December 29, 2014 by Mike Dussault

I’m not sure how much we really need to talk about yesterday’s game against the Bills. The only thing that really matters is that the Pats got out of it without a catastrophic injury. Yeah, a couple guys limped off but I’d think with the bye week, everyone should be ready to go for January 10th’s playoff opener.

So let’s talk a bit about 2014 with today’s Posits, a season where the Patriots returned to a level of dominance not seen since 2007. As I’ve said before, the Patriots’ teams of 2010-2013 always felt flawed on the defensive side of the ball with a dash of limitations on offense.

2010 was the best example of this – a defense that had to rely on turnovers to preserve wins and an offense that was almost entirely based on the short passing attack.

The 2014 Patriots finally turned the page to a defense that can win simply with their red zone prowess, while their offense can challenge all levels of defense. They still have the deadly “scalpel” (aka dink and dunk) that they can run at a devastating pace, but the health of Gronk, emergence of Brandon LaFell and rotating backfield have given the Pats some new dimensions.

2013 was about overcoming injuries. We knew the Pats were on borrowed time, so when they lost in the AFC Championship in Denver, no one was overly disappointed. The 2013 team took things as far as they could.

But now our expectations are high and it’s hard to to think “if not now, when?”.

The 2014 Pats are not without their weaknesses, but short yardage situations on both sides of the ball are hardly glaring problems. They also appear to be susceptible to tight ends, and can have periods of ineffectiveness on offense, but overall this Patriots team is as strong going into the playoffs as we’ve seen under Bill Belichick.

Some quick hit thoughts on the players and schemes of 2014 before we jump into the playoffs.

The emergence of Hightower and Collins as legitimate NFL stars will be somewhat overshadowed by the Revis and Browner of it all. They came of age against the Broncos where the Pats started really employing double A gap pressure (or at least faking it) with their linebackers. I’m left wondering how the rotations would’ve worked if Mayo hadn’t gotten hurt, because I can’t imagine taking Collins or Hightower off the field. Mayo will be a major storyline this offseason, but I’d be fine to turn the page to Hightower being the full-time defensive leader. He might not be as fast as Mayo but his physical strength makes more of an impact than Mayo’s speed. I also think Hightower just has a better feel in coverage that makes up for that extra step Mayo might have.

Collins is right there with Hightower, and learning to be patient might be the best advancement of his game this year. He has the speed and athleticism that allow him to diagnose in that split second post-snap, then fly to the ball. Collins can do it all and he’ll need to be an impact player this next month for the Pats to make the Super Bowl.

They have to re-sign Revis. Belichick and Brady don’t have forever and when you have a corner like Revis in house, one who can be the center of an entire defensive game plan, you have to keep him.

Sealver Siliga and Chris Jones built on their 2013 seasons and both seem like long-term building blocks on the DL. Siliga especially is a great find and he should be able to ease the inevitable transition from Wilfork.

For Wilfork to come back from an Achilles tear like he did was amazing. And now, with a solid DT rotation around him, he should be fresher for the playoffs than he was from 2010-2012, when the Pats effectively ran him into the ground.

Chandler Jones’ injury was unfortunate, but how the Pats got by with Akeem Ayers without him was pretty amazing too. Ayers has seen his role subside since Chandler’s return, but he’ll be a big part of the playoffs against heavy passing teams. 

The offensive line might be the headline weakness of the 2014 season, led by Nate Solder’s regression Dan Connolly should hopefully be healthy for the playoffs and his presence is much-needed. But after center, I don’t think any OL spot is off the table this offseason.

Between Edelman/Gronk/LaFell/Wright, the major pieces for the Pats offensive weaponry is in good shape, but the running back position will be one to watch this offseason. I really have no clue how that will all play out. Do Ridley/Vereen come back? Is Jonas Gray a building block? How much of a role can Blount play? Great questions,  and maybe the answer lies in the draft.

Upgrading the SS spot will be another area to look at this offseason. Chung started strong and is good against the run, but he was exposed in pass coverage more and more as the season went along. Tavon Wilson seemed to be getting more and more looks as well. Maybe he’s an option. But someone with size who can cover would be ideal, not that those guys grow on trees.

Still, Revis will be the first chip to fall this offseason, followed closely by McCourty. Both are vital in my view.

Heading out of town for an overnight trip, then I’ll be back later this week with the final three GIFs of the season and some early playoff thoughts.

Here’s to a great 2014, with more big wins, especially on the road, than we’ve had in a while around here. Expectations are sky high now, but I know the Pats will bring it.

Filed Under: Pats Posits, Uncategorized Tagged With: analysis, new england patriots, posits

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