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pats posits

Pats Posits: We’re on to the Offseason!

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And that’s all she wrote on the 2015 Patriots after getting thoroughly dominated by the Broncos’ defense in Denver.  I didn’t think the Broncos could win a straight-up fight. And while there were quite a few fluky dumbass plays by the Pats, it basically came down to the Broncos defense dominating the Patriots offense.

So full credit to them. We’ve see seasons end like this before. Does it mean blow everything up? Not even close. The entire core returns next season, and with players returning from injury like Nate Solder and Dion Lewis, the Patriots offense is already much better today than it was as they walked off the field in Denver.

But this one was every bit as maddening as past season-enders have been. They weren’t as sharp as they needed to be from the outset. That included a stupid headbutt by Stork that backed them up after a big punt return by Amendola.

I do think the Patriots were late to realize the Broncos offense was done, in hindsight taking field goals at the end probably would’ve won the game. They always err on the side of aggression so I can live with it.

What was brutally apparent was that as soon as the Pats punted on their first possession after winning the toss and receiving, they would be playing catchup the rest of the game. The Broncos had their best drive on their first drive, and never came close to a long sustained drive the rest of the game.

Saw plenty of complaints out there about not deferring, but it’s not that uncommon as we think. They received against Denver in 2013 as well, along with two other times that season. It certainly backfired in this one.

The Pats defense deserves a lot of credit too. They didn’t get much help and they forced five punts and let up just a field goal in the second half. They stopped the run. They got to Manning. They did everything a defense needs to do in the playoffs. And they’re all coming back.

Despite the constant catchup, I really liked our chances for most of the game. Even without their best game, the Pats still went down to the wire and went down swinging. They will never be a team that simply folds and it’s a point of pride no matter how the season ends.

Will take a few days to wrap up the season and then it’s on to free agency and the draft. Another offseason is upon us. Ugh.

Pats Posits: AFC Championship Week Hump Day Edition via MyBookie.ag

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Lots to talk about already this week, but I feel like I’ve been a little overwhelmed by what a victory on Sunday would mean for this entire BB/TB run. Really trying not to think about it, but yeah, it would mean a lot and bring many things full circle that have been lingering for a long time (like 2005/2006/2013 season-enders). 

There will be plenty of time to talk about that if/when the Pats take care of business. I already made the mistake in SB46 of assuming that all wrongs would be righted by the BB/TB dynasty, at least on the time frame we thought they should be righted.

But imagine sending both Tom Coughlin and Peyton Manning, two of the biggest thorns in our sides off into the sunset together this season. At that point playing in the Super Bowl would just be the frosting on top. And if you look at the Super Bowl odds, it seems like Vegas likes the Pats back in the big game.

We didn’t know who the 2015 Patriots were coming into last week, whether they were the banged-up-and-broken team that went 2-4 down the stretch or the team that raced out to 10-0. From the looks of it against the Chiefs they’re closer to the 10-0 version and we have every reason to expect that team to show up in Denver Sunday.

Now, after avenging last year’s MNF beatdown and finally beating Eli, Coughlin and the Giants for the first time since 2007, things are finally set up in the AFC Championship to close the door on a number of other open wounds from the last decade. There wouldn’t be the same poetic justice opportunity in the Super Bowl, but a win this weekend would really cement the 2015 Pats in the pantheon of Brady/Belichick teams. Because for the most part thus far, the 2015 Pats haven’t been all that memorable save just a couple games.

Couple things to touch base on…

– So yeah, the Broncos are already yapping in the media, saying Brady is a cry baby and Gronk pushes off and the only way to take Gronk out is to go low. Clearly they’re already trying to butter up the refs a bit, which I take as a great sign. If you’re that convinced already that you’re going to need help from the refs to win the game? 

And I’m not really sure how a Broncos player complaining to media so that the refs won’t bite when Brady gives them a look after taking a late hit well… kinda the same thing there as what you’re accusing Brady of and definitely more pathetic.

At least the Broncos see the same thing I’m seeing – that they’re going need every call going their way if they’re to have a chance.

– Jerod Mayo goes onto IR for the third year in a row. Rough stretch for Mayo and with his cap hit next year there’s little doubt the Pats will decline his option. And I doubt there will be much interest on the external market for a player who’s been knocked out of the season three straight years. Mayo just didn’t have the same burst/pop to him this year. He started to make some strides near the end, but coming back from a torn patellar tendon is no joke. He might’ve been better served starting on PUP.

I could see Mayo easily back next year on a bare minimum deal. Regardless, adding linebacker depth will be a priority this season. I’ll save my panic about every Jonathan Freeny and Darius Fleming snap for a later post this week but yeah, this whole game comes down to Hightower and Collins for me. If those two guys can finish the game, playing north of 80% of the snaps, the Pats really should shut down the Broncos running game. 

Much, much more to come as the longest week I can ever remember drags on…

Pats Posits: Nerves Settling in for Denver

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I think I get more nervous for a playoff game that the Patriots should win than one where it’s a toss up. Make no mistake, after the way these two teams looked this weekend, the Patriots should win this game. Well, based on how Denver’s looked all season, squeaking out wins after fortuitous mistakes by their opponents, the Patriots should win this game.

But it’s in Denver and that’s what scares me, because things have traditionally been shaky in Denver for the Patriots especially in the playoffs. But it’s hard to see the player Peyton Manning is now and worry that he’s suddenly going to be tossing it all over the field on our defense like it’s two-plus years ago.

You have to respect the Broncos ground game, but if that gets shut down and the big plays to Sanders and Thomas are taken away, it would line up similarly to how the Chiefs game went – lot of regular personnel on defense to crowd the box and kill the running game, press their receivers and make Manning consistently hit 10+ yard passing plays to win the game.

Amazingly this flips the script on BB’s usual Peyton gameplan, where you’d concede the run to take the game out of his hands. It really just comes down to how healthy Collins and Hightower can be, because with both of them in there, the Broncos will struggle to consistently run the ball.

What scares me is that for the Patriots to lose this game they’re going to have to have a lot of mistakes, a lot of calls go against them and just get none of the bounces. Because with Gronk and Edelman in the lineup New England should really move the ball at will. Put it this way – with Gronk and Edelman in the lineup the Pats are 4-0 against the Broncos. 

I am all about the season-long narrative with my Pats coverage. I like meaningful games and there’s no better narrative, no more meaningful game than having to go back to Denver, where the 2015 season started to fall apart from its perfect start.

The Pats already avenged a brutal loss from last season, and now they have the chance to avenge both the 2013 AFCCG loss and the earlier loss this season. Denver has been a tough place for Brady over the course of his career. What a perfect chance to finish off those demons this weekend.

Pats Posits: Who Are the 2015 Patriots?

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It’s hard to believe we’re about to close the books on another regular season but the strangest part is that I don’t really know who the 2015 Patriots are. Are they the dominant Dion Lewis-at-RB team from the first half of the season? Are they the “Sick Jamie Collins” defense they played a month with? 

Really, the defining characteristic of the 2015 Pats seems to be getting by with what they had on any given Sunday. Players were in and out all season, still they lost just three games, two of which came in overtime, while also having 14-point leads in two of the three as well.

No, the 2015 will truly be defined by how well these injury-riddled Pats can come back together and perform under the pressure of the playoffs. How healthy will Edelman, Hightower, McCourty, Chung, Vollmer (and even Chandler Jones) be in two weeks? Can they step in and play at the highest level necessary to win in the playoffs? Or will they be just enough out of sync to not be able to make the one or two critical plays often needed to win a playoff game?

So in a lot of ways the 2015 season has felt like one long preseason. There are certainly things we know – that this defense is the best they’ve had since 2007, and in my view is the best and most promising for the long term since 2003. Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan and Malcom Brown have emerged as legitimate building blocks, while free agent Jabaal Sheard has taken the pass rush to the next level.

But on offense things are far more murky because of unrelenting injuries. Can Steven Jackson convert a critical third-and-two? Can Edelman step in and make an incredible catch on third down while taking a big hit? Or will he not quite be up to game speed and make a critical drop? What about Amendola in that situation? Can Vollmer take on the kind of dangerous pass rushers with his bum ankle? Will Hightower and Jones be shadows of themselves, or will three weeks off get them back to near-100%?

Most of Pats Nation seems to count on everyone coming back, stepping in at 100% and making all the key plays like they did in last year’s playoff run. I am cautiously optimistic, but the 2015 Pats’ fate will depend entirely on how fast the offense can “re-click” and we just don’t know for sure how close to 100% many of the vital players are.

Usually you know who your team is by this point. You know where the expectations lie for them. This year I’m not so sure, and given how the playoff field is lining up, I don’t see a Colts-esque slam dunk anywhere for this Patriots team.

Obviously the playoffs will define the 2015 Patriots and each game will come down to a small handful of critical plays the Pats will either make or not, but right now we still just don’t know the true impact of all these non-season-ending injuries that have thus far been the only consistent trait of the 2015 Pats next to Tom Brady and Malcolm Butler starting.

Pats Posits: A loss to the Jets is still a loss to the Jets (even when you’re playing your JV offense)

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The Patriots made a noble comeback attempt against the Jets after being down 17-3, only to fall short in overtime, now we’re on to Miami to close the season off. It’s hard to feel that bad about a relatively meaningless loss, but it might’ve been easier to swallow if they hadn’t made a pretty ballsy comeback. 

The playoffs are fast approaching and the Pats still can’t make it through a game without someone getting carted off. Also – Super Bowl 50 is just around to corner so act now if you plan to bet on Super Bowl 2016 online and get in the game.

Belichick’s decision to play defense first in overtime was a strong choice, but given how the offense had been playing, it’s was the better choice if you think it will be a field possession game in overtime. 

Belichick isn’t afraid to make those kinds of calls, nor does he care what anyone thinks after the fact. That’s why you have to love him and right or wrong, he did what he thought was best, just like he did when he forced Seattle’s hand in the closing minute of Super Bowl 49 by not calling a timeout. 

Despite the Pats still being in the same position they were in before the game – needing one win to clinch the top seed in the AFC – there’s still plenty to talk about. 

Here are the Posits…

– Vollmer Injury – We have to start with then biggest “big picture” detail of this game and that’s the ankle injury to Sebastian Vollmer. There was hope Sunday night that it was just an ankle sprain, but any time a guy gets carted off you have to think the worst. He’ll have an MRI Monday and we’ll know what the deal is by Wednesday’s injury report at the latest.

Without Vollmer it only exacerbates the biggest weakness on this Patriots offense right now and that’s protection. Of course it all looks easier when guys like Amendola and Edelman are getting open right off the snap. Brady doesn’t need much time then, but now, without any real weapons outside Gronk, anytime the first read isn’t there, things get dicey with the protection.

– I’m not sure what we can expect from this line and what their ceiling really is. Outside of Solder and Stork, I’m not completely sold on any of the rest of them being long term solutions past this season. Yes, I’d love to think Mason and Jackson will take big strides, but can we really say either of them is as good as Stork was last year?

– When the Pats lose in the playoffs it’s because of two big things – pressure getting to Brady (especially up the middle) and the defense not making the last play. There were examples in this game of both and that’s a little scary.

– Steven Jackson looked good, getting just seven carries but still has a bit of a burst out of the backfield that even Blount lacked. As much as I’d love to say he’ll be the lead back in the playoffs, I think there’s a good chance he just has spot duty unless he really starts to go off. But he could definitely be the third-and-short/goalline hammer and I’m excited for that.

– Still, I’d take just about anything over the Brandon Bolden offense right now. I feel like it’s a personal front to me, the biggest Bolden-at-RB hater there is. The Pats had a 2.9 yards-per-carry average for the game. And while Bolden has been far more slippery than he’s been in the past, he’s still the worst starting running back the Pats have had since 2001. And don’t you dare say you’d rather have him over Laurence Maroney.

– The small silver lining of this all has been Keshawn Martin
, who I think has improved every week and is doing an okay Julian Edelman Z WR impression. Not sure it’s been enough to make Danny Amendola and his contract expendable, but I hope Martin sticks around.

– The Chung/McCourty Dropoff might’ve been the deciding factor in the Jets game, and it was made even worse when Jordan Richards went down and Tavon Wilson came on in overtime and was promptly targeted for a big gain. Obviously they’re a different defense in all aspects with their two veteran captains in there. That’s obviously the most significant difference with this game that makes it an outlier.

As Matt Chatham pointed out on Twitter during the game, so much of the Jets offense specifically targeted the Pats’ inexperience in the secondary, using bunch formations and motion to force communication issues for the Pats. This is a similar tactic to that which Eric Mangini used with the Browns in 2010 to challenge New England’s defense.

– Why is Hightower playing? The guy is super tough. I get it. But do we really need to risk him like this? He’s clearly not 100 percent and I pray he sits against Miami. Rest the beast!

– Got plenty of “calm downs” for tweeting that I thought the Jets were the biggest threat to the Patriots in the AFC playoffs, but I believe it. The Steelers didn’t quite live up to “the team that no one wants to play” standards against the Ravens and I know everyone is still gunshy on the Chiefs after last year, but in Foxboro they’d be a different team. Even the Broncos would be a little spooked to play in Foxboro, not to mention the Bengals. But the Jets wouldn’t and in case you haven’t noticed, pretty much every Patriots-Jets game goes down to the wire, if not overtime. 

Also remember the Patriots had Edelman, Amendola, and Easley along with everyone else when it took a dropped Brandon Marshall touchdown to eek out a win at home against the Jets in October. Round Three would be an absolute dog fight and we all should know it.

– I was actually fine with the end-of-the-first-half concession. That’s been a dangerous spot for the Pats this year and the Jets offense was coming off an impressive scoring drive. It was conservative, but giving the ball back to the Jets there might’ve put the game away. Let’s remember they picked up ONE third down conversion the entire game. Same thing goes for kicking off.

– However, they were also 3-3 on 4th down conversions, a testament to the fight that this team continues to possess even when they probably should’ve easily lost by double digits. That’s why no matter who is in or out of the lineup, and at what percentage health, the Pats will be a tough out for anyone in the playoffs.

– The Sheard Strip Sack/Collins Fumble TD was the second week in a row the defense put six on the board. Remember in 2010 when they all seemed like interceptions? Well now it’s the front seven that is producing the game-changing plays. It’s a great sign for a defense that came up just a couple plays short in this one.

– Chandler Jones is one of the most interesting case studies in Belichick history. Jone will enter the fifth and final year of his deal in 2016 and he’s central to the question of how the Pats will handle him, Collins and Hightower. Against the Jets, Jones had just one tackle and one QB hit. Yes, he’s going to the Pro Bowl and has 12.5 sacks, but none of them have come in the Pats’ three losses. I think this playoff run will define Jones and the future with the Patriots. If he is a force for three games, he will write his own ticket. If he disappears in a disappointing playoff loss? Hightower, Collins and Sheard will become the priorities.

– One thing I hated about letting Brandon Browner go was the size he brought to the cornerback position. The Jets were my prime example of the kind of games you’d want to have a guy like him, despite his flaws. Give Logan Ryan credit, he hung in there and some of those plays were just an impossible mismatch. Butler seemed to do a much better job this time around on Decker, but without McCourty, Ryan was hung out to dry.

– This will get lost in the shuffle, but Ryan Allen’s 4th Q punt to pin the Jets on their 6, which was followed by a three-and-out by the Jets and the Pats game-tying touchdown drive. Special Teams had somewhat of a bounceback game and that’s good to see in a competitive game.

Now it all comes down to finishing off the dead Dolphins in Miami for the top playoff seed. The great question of 2015 remains – can the Patriots get healthy and click fast enough to win three playoff games?

Pats Posits: One more win until homefield

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It’s another victory Monday after the Pats dispatched the Titans 33-16, moving to 12-2 and needing just one more win to seal up the top seed in the AFC thanks to the Steelers knocking off the Broncos.

All that really matters now for the 2015 Patriots is getting healthy. We’re going to take the Jets’ best shot and probably have to do it with far less than what we’ll go into the playoffs with. 

The injury headlines were Dont’a Hightower and Danny Amendola tweaking previous injuries and Patrick Chung leaving the game with a hip injury. Hightower returned to the sideline but didn’t re-enter the game. That’s a ray of hope.

All three players are likely done for the regular season. Hightower and Chung are somewhat manageable, but not having Amendola against the Jets will make things tough.

This 2015 season has seemed like an extended preseason, with a constant state of injuries and injury management. Credit to the Patriots though, they’ve had to put second-most players on injured reserve, yet here they sit again atop the AFC.

It’s become to easy to take it for granted.

Here are the Posits…

– James White’s Emergence Continues: The biggest development of recent weeks is James White starting to look more and more comfortable making electric plays that had been missing since Dion Lewis went down. White’s best play, a 70-yard run that called back on a bad call, didn’t even make the stat sheet. He did have seven catches on eight targets for 71 yards and a touchdown. That’s reliability and he’s going to be a big factor in the playoffs.

– Turnovers on Defense! One of the best things to see against the Titans was that the defense got three turnovers, their first multi- turnover game since the Redskins and just the second time they’ve gotten three all year. This is one of the top three defenses Belichick has had but strangely they’re doing it with a pretty low turnover rate. That speaks to how good the pressure and coverage has been, but if they start getting a bit more of a nose for the ball, look out.

– Logan Ryan vs. Green-Beckham: Ryan had some struggles with Green-Beckham, which is not entirely surprising given the size disparity. But it’s something to watch once again with Decker and Marshall this weekend. Still, I love what the secondary is doing and it was nice to see Butler get a pick finally.

– Defensive Front: Hoping to take a look at how the defensive front shaped up in terms of pressure packages this week. It was great to finally see them at almost full power, especially at the linebacker spot. They are a veteran crew and I can’t wait to see what they bring in the playoffs.

– Third and Short, Keeping Chains Moving: The general consensus is that the Pats will be fine no matter who they roll out there at running back and while I generally think that is true, I also think winning playoff games is built on winning critical situations – two minute offense and two minute defense being the most obvious, but the other areas are getting stops or converting on third and shorts. Right now I don’t have a ton of confidence this offense can pick up a third-and-two when they need it most.

– Hightower and Amendola Re-Injuries, Chung (hip) injury: It was a good sign that Hightower came back out of the locker room, I’d still shut him down until the playoffs though. It was clear the moment Amendola tweaked his knee on the punt return, he suddenly just lost all power. Again, I think he’s done till the playoffs too. Then there’s Chung which scares me because he’s become such a critical part of the defense. Yes, they have some depth for his role with Wilson and Richards, but not having him in the playoffs would be a big blow. We wait for word on him.

– Nice to see Chandler Jones get back on the sack stat sheet, but I’m still very curious to see which version of him shows up in the playoffs. It will tell us so much about his future with the team and what kind of contract he might get on the open market after next season (if he makes it that far).

– Belichick 2013 Crew Hoodie: I was perplexed when Belichick showed up wearing a 2013 Blue “Hoodie” without the hood in this one. At first I thought he cut the hood off because he’s never worn a crewneck 2013 sweatshirt, but upon further inspection it was in fact a crewneck. So yeah, he just sat on that for a couple seasons without ever wearing it. Do I overthink this stuff? Yup.

– Grissom Time at RDE: Nice to see Grissom get a little time at defensive end, he was mostly an interior sub rusher early in the season. Him and Trey Flowers will be ones to watch next summer, their development will have big implications on the futures of Chandler Jones and somewhat Jabaal Sheard (as much as I hope they lock up Sheard long term).

– Keshawn Martin continues to develop, making sneaky solid plays, finishing the game with three catches for 26 yards. If Amendola is out again, Martin once again steps into a huge role against as good of a defense as we’ll see from here on out in the Jets.

– Brandon LaFell restored some of my confidence in him with four catches for 88 yards including a 31 yarder. The offense needs his 2014 reliability so much going forward,

This should be a fun game with a lot of hype this week. The Jets are a playoff team and possibly one the Patriots will have to face again. They really need this game too, as only two of the Jets, Steelers, Chiefs trio will make the playoffs.

But the Patriots might be dressing a preseason team, at least at the offensive skill positions outside of Gronk. And if Chung/McCourty/Hightower are out too the Pats could very well be headed for loss number three. 

The good news is a win in Miami in Week 17 looks doable and that would still lock up the top seed.