The Patriots finally have their home opener Sunday against the 0-2 Raiders! While on paper this might look to be a Pats’ blowout, we’ve seen far too many ugly early-season losses to write in a “W” just yet. Let’s remember this is a Patriots team that lost to the Cardinals at home in 2012. The Cardinals wouldn’t win another road game all year. Figure that one out.
The Pats have been saying all the right things this week – what a legend Charles Woodson is, how good Oakland’s pass defense is, that Derek Carr can make every throw. You know the drill.
But who the opponent is doesn’t really matter, it’s all about focusing on the Patriots and improving. The team has shown glimpses on both sides of the ball, but the consistency has been lacking especially on offense.
Here’s my strategy and points of emphasis that will hopefully get the Pats to 2-1.
Offensive Strategy
Let’s just start with penalties since the Pats are the second-most penalized team in the NFL. Of course this applies to both sides of the ball, but things were especially ugly on the offensive side of the ball. So many great plays were negated by penalties against the Vikings, it was almost laughable.
But those plays show what this offense is capable of, and if they can play “clean”, they’ll be able to establish some kind of rhythm and momentum. That’s what we haven’t see yet from the offense.
Oakland is giving up 200 rushing yards a game, so that’s a good place to start for a variety reasons. The Pats had a similar game plan last week. Establishing the run allows the offensive line to get comfortable, it puts the defense on their toes and opens them up to play action, and it just sets the physical tone for the game.
While we’d all like to see Tom Brady show some kind of chemistry with one of his newer receivers, ultimately scoring points is what matters most. Chemistry will come as the season progresses and expecting Dobson/LaFell/Thompkins/Wright to suddenly steal the spotlight might be a little too lofty.
Defensive Strategy
Usually, Bill Belichick’s philosophy against young quarterbacks is to play coverage and force continuous execution. Almost always this leads to multiple game-changing turnovers, but sometimes it can backfire. See 2009 vs. Mark Sanchez, 2010 vs. Colt McCoy or even 2011 vs. Dan Orlovsky and the Colts.
But now it would appear the Patriots defense has enough talent to actually cause some disruption with only four rushers. Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich and Dont’a Hightower should be key, as should Dominique Easley and Chris Jones on passing downs. If those guys are making Derek Carr uncomfortable, it will be nearly impossible for Oakland to win. If Carr has time and establishes a level of comfort an upset is very much possible.
Carr has been fairly balanced in the receivers he’s targeted, with James Jones leading the way so there probably isn’t a need for Revis to shadow anyone. Just playing sound coverage, a strength thus far of the defensive backs, will be key.
Darren McFadden could be a problem if he gets going. I expect the Pats to once again start with Wilfork and Siliga inside for their standard double nose 4-3 run stopping defense. Finally the Pats get a chance to prove they can stop a good NFL running back after the atrocity in Miami.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Ridley Unleashed
With a bottom-ranked Oakland run defense and the way Stevan Ridley ran last week, this could be a career day for the running back in a contract year. Expect some Shane Vereen mixed in as well, and preferably not much Brandon Bolden. If Ridley gets going early it will only help the passing game as well.
2. Play Action Deep Shots
If the ground game is established early, the Patriots could do huge damage with their play action game. Tom Brady is one of the best ball fake quarterbacks ever to play. If Oakland gets too geared up to stop the run, the Pats should take some deep shots, especially at the expense of strong safety Tyvon Branch.
3. Double Nose Run Stoppage
As is the case with most Patriots opponents, their gameplan will likely be focused on keeping the clock moving with their running game and keeping Brady off the field. The focus will be on the Patriots front seven to stop the run and force difficult down-and-distances for Derek Carr.
4. Make Carr go thru progressions
What cannot be allowed to happen is for Carr to find a rhythm with quick completions to his primary targets. Carr can make any throw despite this being his rookie year. If a receiver is open and Carr has time, he’ll make the throw. As mentioned above, the Pats need to bring pressure with four, but they also cannot allow easy completions by playing soft zones. Expect plenty of press man to force Carr to decide who will get off the line of scrimmage and who won’t.
5. Win
There are few easy games on an NFL schedule and this is as close as the Pats will get to an easy one until the end of the year, if/when the playoff positions have already been decided. From after this game until December it’s all divisional rivals and playoff teams, with the explosive offenses of Chicago and Detroit sprinkled in, and there will surely be a couple losses in there. That’s why the Patriots cannot afford to take this one lightly.
