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Tim about to get Teblown out by Patriots

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You’ll rarely find me making serious predictions or power rankings here on the blog, but this weekend’s Patriots-Broncos game seems like a ripe opportunity to break the trend.

I’m not one of the people who is sick of all the Tebow storylines because I don’t watch Sportscenter. And I’m not going to try and tell you whether or not Tebow is a long term solution for the Broncos. Nor am I going to make any commentary on his faith, though it’s clear he talks the talk and walks the walk in that department.

For me it just comes down to football and I think this is the week Tebow and the his disciples falls back to earth. Let’s lay out the ingredients…

  • A still-angry Tom Brady who has something to prove after how his last pass ended against the Redskins.
  • A Patriots defense that might not be great against the pass, but are excellent in the simple fundamentals and “doing their job”, especially when it comes to staying within the system.
  • An entire Patriots team that has something to prove on the home field of the Broncos moreso than any other home field in the NFL.

Let’s start with Tebow. It doesn’t take a football genius to figure out the secret to ending his current run. Put him in an early hole. Force him to have to abandon the run game and throw the ball to catch up. The golden number is a 17-point lead.

The only possible model for success for the Broncos is what the Browns did last year. Get an early lead. Pound the ball on the ground and keep Brady off the field. Run a couple successful trick plays. Force the Patriots to be one dimensional and allow Elvis Dumerville and Von Miller to pin their ears back and get after Brady.

Where the Patriots can get into trouble defensively is when offenses run multiple shifts, forcing the Pats to communicate and adjust to each one. The Broncos should be able to mimic this Mangini-esque game plan to get the Pats defense on their heels. But with what the Broncos have shown this is one week the Pats should be ready to be attacked as such.

So for the Patriots defense it will be all about discipline. Ideally the Pats would like to mimic what the Bears were successful with for three quarters last week. Play man to man, put eight in the box, and make sure everyone maintains their gap and doesn’t overpursue or fall for the myriad of misdirectional plays the Broncos thrive on. Playing sound fundamental defense

The Broncos have a respectable defense but it’s about to be tested like it hasn’t since the Lions mauled them. In the big picture the Broncos D is a very solid road test for the Patriots to handle. It’s still very possible they’d have to travel to Baltimore, Pittsburgh or Houston should they make the AFC Championship.

I expect a full 60 minutes from New England on both sides of the ball. Their defense has literally been laughed at all week, and the storyline that was second to that was Brady’s endzone interception and the argument that followed.

When I look at all these factors the result seems obvious to me.

Patriots 37, Broncos 10

Patriots 2011 defense the bendiest ever and unbreakiest since 2006

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It seems like the universal excuse for us Belichick apologists these days for why the Patriots give up so many yards and how it doesn’t matter is that they play a “bend don’t break” style of defense that forces the offense to consistently execute and waits to take advantage of turnovers or stop them in the red zone.

The two stats that are best reflective of the bend don’t break are first downs pergame and red zone defense touchdown percentage. I went back and looked at the Pats performance in these areas since the 2003 season and the results are pretty interesting.

FIRST DOWNS PER GAME

  • 2011: 23.2 (32nd)
  • 2010: 21.2 (29th)
  • 2009: 17.9 (10th)
  • 2008: 17.1 (7th)
  • 2007: 17.6 (7th)
  • 2006: 17.6 (11th)
  • 2005: 18.7 (20th)
  • 2004: 18.4 (11th)
  • 2003: 18.3 (16th)

RED ZONE TOUCHDOWN PERCENTAGE

  • 2011: 50% (16th)
  • 2010: 56% (22nd)
  • 2009: 56% (21st)
  • 2008: 67% (31st)
  • 2007: 54% (21st)
  • 2006: 40% (3rd)
  • 2005: 54% (23rd)
  • 2004: 42% (3rd)
  • 2003: 43% (7th)

The most interesting thing here is that never before have the Patriots given up more first downs per game than they’re giving up this year. Regardless of slight improvements on 3rd down, offenses have never had an easier time moving the ball.

However the Patriots defense is having it’s best red zone season since 2006, and although they’re still only 16th in the league it’s clear that this has been the saving grace in getting the Pats to 10-3 on the season.

Snap Reactions: Patriots hold on vs. Redskins

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Not too much to really feel great about as Patriots fans, other than (hopefully) having escaped without any major injuries. It was as ugly a win as I’ve ever seen and really the Patriots didn’t deserve to win until Jerod Mayo made a big game sealing interception on the four yard line.

That was a championship play, and if there’s one small bit of positivity to take from this one it’s Mayo having an interception for the second straight game. He is starting to make big plays, the kind that Tedy Bruschi became Patriots legend with.

The tale of two stats: 

  • Pats Third Down D: 7/14 = 50% 
  • Pats Red Zone D: 2/5 = 40%

This game was the embodiment of everything we hate about the current New England Patriots.  The defense was non-existant for most of the game. They bent and broke yet still won because they had a better quarterback.

Usually they’re only destroyed through the air but this week it was on the ground as well. We can only hope that Spikes and Chung return this week and bring new life to this defense. Because never before have they looked more lifeless (until Mayo’s pick).

At least Gronk showed up and continues to show he’s the best tight end in football. 

Also have to give props to the pass protection in the second half. 

Two former Pats wide receivers had huge days:

  • Stallworth : 4 catches, 96 yards
  • Gaffney: 6 catches 92 yards

McCourty had a horrible first half but turned it around in the second half. I’m starting to legitimately worry this could be a lost sophomore season for Devin. That interception getting called back was a rough break. That could’ve been what he needed to snap out of the funk. Shoulder or not, he’s off and teams are picking on him.

I don’t know what’s wrong with Ihedigbo but he’s a tough guy and playing through a lot of pain. Starting to wonder if he’s the long term safety Chung can’t seem to stay healthy long enough to be.

Nice start to the game for Dane Fletcher but it seems like he slowly ran out of gas. Looked like the Pats went with this 3-4 look as a base:

75-74-93

50-52-51-95

Seems like they thought they could stop the run with it, when they couldn’t they brought in Deaderick, kicked Carter to DE/OLB and took Anderson off. The Pats couldn’t stop the run in that grouping either, with Carter getting consistently sealed. Rough game for Carter in run defense.

It will be hard finding things that make you feel any better about the Patriots Super Bowl chances than you did before the game. 

Four years of hating the Patriots defense and genius labels

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I don’t try to hide the fact that this is a Patriots homer blog but today I bring you a collection of articles just the opposite, which I think illustrate with comedic effect just how much you can milk a negative point of view of a team that is on the verge of their ninth division title in eleven years.

Sit back and try to enjoy the ride as we bring you four years of Kerry Byrne’s (SI.com/Cold Hard Football Facts/WEEI) articles about Bill Belichick and the Patriots defense.

2008 : Bill Belichick’s Legacy Needs a Hug

We begin with the Patriots coming off a season in which they were under two minutes from the indisputable greatest team of all time as Kerry puts the “genius” label in his cross hairs.

Belichick has been considered the singular defensive “genius” of his generation. Some “pundits” even argued, right up until about 10 p.m. on Feb. 3, that he was the greatest coach of all time. Raise your hand if heard that one in the run-up to the Super Bowl? Anyone? Anyone?

Belichick might have become the first coach in history to garner five Super Bowl rings in a mere seven seasons. But his defenses have stood in the way of history.

Fair enough, he’s right, with a better defense the Pats might’ve had two more Super Bowl titles. But the dynasty defense was a veteran one that had been forged in the late 90’s and early 00’s and it was bound to run out of gas at some point. Still hard to kill a coaches entire legacy based on one half (2nd half ‘06 AFCCG) and one drive (SB 42).

2009: Patriots failing the passing test, secondary a primary concern

I guess he gave them a pass during the Matt Cassel year as we fast forward to the 2009 season.

The local pigskin punditry is twisting itself into logistical knots trying to come up with the reasons for New England’s inconsistent 3-2 start.

Let me put an end to the mystery. The problems with the Patriots can be summed with six words: Bill Belichick has lost his mojo.

So it wasn’t that the Pats lost Bruschi, Vrabel, Seymour, Harrison, Samuel, etc. it was the Belichick lost his mojo and failed to adequately turn over his dynasty defense for another Super Bowl caliber defense in under two seasons. Hmm. Okay. Let’s fast forward to December of that same season.
Now BB hasn’t just lost his mojo, he’s no longer a genius.
That label started to peel off the bottle back in the spring of 2005. Now, after New England’s embarrassing 38-17 loss to the Saints Monday night, the label lies crumpled up wet on the floor beside the bar stool, waiting for the cleaning crew to sweep it away at the end of the night.
Woah, woah, woah… spring 2005?!

I thought we already covered this in 2009, but after the 2010 Pats’ week two loss to the Jets it must’ve been time to remind us?

The AFC East race is still far from over. But we do know this: you can finally put a fork in the “Belichick as Genius” storyline, an effort we started two years ago, long before it was popular.

A Belichick Defense is no longer something to fear. But maybe a Rex Ryan defense is.

Unless you want to win a title of any kind.

2010: The Patriots are a defensive disaster

Still going…

But it seems every quarterback torches New England’s defense. In fact, right now, New England’s defense is simply not good enough to win a Super Bowl.

The Patriots are a defensive disaster this year: No. 22 in scoring defense and No. 31 in total defense. They look just as bad in our Cold, Hard Football Facts Quality Stats: 23rd in forcing Negative Pass Plays (sacks, INTs), 25th in Defensive Passer Rating, 29th in our Defensive Hog Index (which measures the performance of each defensive front) and dead last in third-down defense. Opponents convert a crushing 50.7 percent of third-down attempts. Even the 31st-ranked Bills allow teams to convert just 45.0 percent of third downs.

Well the 2010 Pats won their division but had a disappointing playoff exit to a quarterback who played lights out.  Okay Kerry, you win. Belichick isn’t a genius and the Pats need to improve their pass defense.
Impossible? Well maybe Belichick got his genius card back at least?
“Bill Belichick’s a great coach, we all know that. But he had this reputation forever as a defensive genius, and we have to end that mythology,” Byrne, the editor-in-chief of coldhardfootballfacts.com, told host Gary Tanguay on CSNNE.com’s Web-only Cold Hard Football Facts show.

“They’ve put bad, bad defenses on the field for years on end, and right now it is statistically impossible for this team to win a Super Bowl with a defense this bad.”

Might as well stop watching the games. What’s the point? Or maybe just start rooting for the Packers, at least they’re 31st in passing yards allowed.

2011: Epic fail for New England Defense

Finally today comes the latest and greatest.

Are you still a defensive “genius” if your defense collapses in big game year after year and is now on pace to give up more yards through the air than anyone in football history?

That’s one question coming out of New England after Bill Belichick’s defense was humiliated by Dan Orlovsky and the 0-12 Colts.

No matter who ends up on the field, you can count on the fact that New England’s once-proud pass defense will get torched week after week.

Ah, what a long strange trip of the same exact points being pounded home over and over again in a condescending tone it’s been.
But it all still leaves me wondering…
  • Is anyone even still calling BB a genius?
  • And if even a Patriots homer blogger like myself will concede this point who is Kerry even trying to convince? Jets fans?
  • Can a football coach really even be a genius? 
  • How about we just agree that he’s one of greatest football coaches of all time? You can still be that even if you don’t win a Super Bowl every single season right?
  • If the Patriots defense is this epically bad, so bad in fact that we have to be reminded of it time after time, year after year, how have they led the NFL in wins over the last decade? How? Apparently it’s not BB, who lacks both genius and mojo. And it can’t be the players who Kerry calls “a fourth-rate secondary that Belichick has cobbled together from free agents, bad draft picks, former college quarterbacks, current wide receivers and pixie dust.” Seven articles and I have no idea how the Patriots win at a historic rate.
  • Finally, does Kerry get bored of writing how much the Patriots defense sucks and how Bill Belichick is not a genius? Perhaps no more than I get bored of writing how much I enjoy following this team. Which I don’t.

A little Patriots negativity to get the blood boiling

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Patriots fans might as well write this off as another AFC East title-winning, playoff disappointment season now according to most of the chatter across the internet today.

We’ve got resident parade poo pooer Bert Breer on Gresh and Zo saying he “just doesn’t see it with this defense” and CSNNE’s Mike Giardi playing the playmaker card again:

It’s about playmakers. got em defensively. Pats lacking. Best defender a DT, Wilfork. Love Carter but can/has been neutralized.

I’m not going to try and make a case that the Patriots defense is the ‘85 Bears or even the ’86 Bears, but I think it’s all about match ups in the playoffs and with Tom Brady it’s foolish to write a team’s Super Bowl hopes off in early December. We’ve seen plenty of flashes from this defense in 2011 that gives me far more belief they are capable of winning a pressure-packed playoff game than either of the past two seasons.

If the Pats were in the NFC there’s no doubt the odds would be higher for them get to the Super Bowl, but in the AFC there is not a team the Pats can’t beat. No question the Steelers will provide the biggest challenge, but let’s not forget how that game has turned out every time those two teams have met in the playoffs.

Regardless of who represents the NFC we’ve been down this road once before. The 2001 Patriots defense was a similarly disrespected crew of cast offs and never-have-beens and they shut down what was at that point one of the most unstoppable offenses ever seen.

And to Giardi’s point of it being about playmakers, how about we line up the 2001 Patriots offense with the 2001 Rams offense, and tell me who had more playmakers on that side of the ball. What matters is execution. The Patriots might not be favored against the Packers or Saints in the Super Bowl, but I’d bet neither team would relish the chance to face a Belichick coached team regardless of who the personnel is.

In a single game with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick I’ll take on any team in history and think we have a fighting chance. So the naysayers can continue to say  they “just don’t see it” but the naysayers just don’t see a lot of things. Championship teams don’t always fit into a perfect neat little box, where statistical dominance, playmakers and “peaking at the right time” coincide.

Football is the ultimate team sport, and I can guarantee that the 2011 Patriots will all be on the same page when January comes around. It will take a flawless game to beat them no matter how many passing yards you think you can rack up.

Let’s talk Patriots and playoffs

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Like last year, this final quarter of the Patriots season will be all about maintaining pace and hopefully locking up the first overall seed in the AFC. The Pats are certainly in the drivers seat, and while games against the Broncos and Dolphins certainly look more interesting right now than they did a couple weeks ago, there’s no doubt if the Patriots play the way they’re capable of they should finishing 13-3 and have home field throughout.

A trip to NFL.com’s playoff picture page (one of the only pages on the NFL.com site that doesn’t send your computer into a state of stalled confusion) shows the current seedings as such:

  1. Patriots
  2. Texans
  3. Ravens
  4. Broncos
  5. Steelers
  6. Bengals

A finish like this would put the Steelers as the likely divisional opponent, something that isn’t exactly ideal, but the Pats might not really have an easy road no matter how it plays out. This is what looks likely to me at this point:

  1. Patriots – duh.
  2. Ravens – I’d rather the Steelers ended up here, but I just don’t see it happening so we’ll keep it realistic. They should go 4-0 the rest of the way.
  3. Texans – They can run the ball and play defense, could be enough to get them past any of the 6 seeds.
  4. Raiders – both Denver and Oakland should drop at least a couple games. I’m going with the Raiders here because I just think they’re a better all around team.
  5. Steelers – at 49ers is a tough one, even if they can squeak it out they’ll still lose division on a tie breaker to Ravens.
  6. Jets – I see the Bengals, Titans, and Raiders/Broncos all with two more losses and I only see the Jets with one. They sneak in yet again.

Unfortunately for the Pats this sets up a likely divisional matchup against the Steelers, Jets or Raiders. Of course the Raiders are a fine match up but the other two would be hotly contested battles.

The Jets would have their hands full stopping the Houston running attack and pass rush, I see them as a longer shot to pull off that upset than the Steelers over the Raiders.