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NFL Weekend Picks

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I’m really bucking the usual PatsPropaganda modus operandi today by making my picks for who will win this weekend, but this is probably the best football watching weekend of the entire year so I feel obligated.

We’ll include both the line and outright winner in case anybody wants to do some mobile NFL betting.

New Orleans (-4) @ San Francisco

I’m taking the Saints both to cover and to win. Maybe in the olden days where “defenses win championships” still applied I’d see the 49ers having a chance, but it’s now a quarterback league and nobody’s playing better than Drew Brees. Alex Smith and Frank Gore would have to play the games of their lives to keep this one close.

Denver @ New England (-13.5)

What kind of a homer blogger would I be if I ever picked against the Patriots in a prediction of any kind? Patriots win and cover. The ingredients for a blowout are all there. Doesn’t mean it will happen, but there’s a very good chance Pats win by 17ish.

Houston @ Baltimore (-7.5)

This one should be close, but I’ll give the Ravens the slight edge because I think their defense and quarterback are a touch better and they’re at home. The Texans should be able to contain Ray Rice with the speed that they have on defense, especially with Brian Cushing, but I just can’t imagine TJ Yates taking out the Baltimore defense in their house, even if Arian Foster has a big day. I lean towards Houston +7.5 on the line.

NY Giants @ Green Bay (-7.5)

The Packers might be the class of the NFC but I’ve seen enough of the Giants over the years to think they can pull the upset off. Let’s not forget how the Patriots beat the Giants in 2007 by a score of 38-35 then lost to them in the Super Bowl. The Packers beat the Giants by the same 38-35 score earlier this year, and I think the Giants will be loose and ready to play. It also helps that Eli Manning has won in Green Bay in the playoffs before.

Ninkovich a key for Patriots vs. Broncos

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Patriots linebacker Rob Ninkovich is a prime example of the kind of player Bill Belichick has built his team on. Once considered a castoff long snapper by the Saints, Ninkovich has earned two contract extension from the Patriots and looks to be one of the pieces Belichick considers a building block.

When the Patriots went to a four man front this season we knew that the Strong Side Outside Linebacker would be a key position that the Pats would need production out of. We weren’t even sure who would play the spot until Ninkovich emerged as the only defender who could. Ninkovich ended up turning in a season where ProFootballFocus had him ranked as the Patriots second best run defender and third best defender overall.

Ninkovich has done a little of everything for the Pats this year. From rushing the passer as a defensive end, to his most common spot at SLB in the 4-3, to outside linebacker in the 3-4; it’s clear that Bill Belichick trusts him in a variety of roles because of his smart and tough play.

Against the Broncos this weekend the Patriots will need a stellar effort from Ninkovich. Despite missing two costly tackles early in the first tilt in Denver, Ninkovich had enough of a turnaround to make that game his highest PFF-graded one of the season.

Ninkovich’s bread and butter is against heavy running teams like Denver, and when he’s on the Patriots usually roll. When he’s not, like against the Steelers early this year, the rest of the defense tends to struggle as well.

His experiences a few weeks ago with trying to tackle Tebow should serve him well, but setting the edge will be absolutely vital for Ninkovich. Keep an eye on him in the game, as he goes so goes the Patriots D this weekend.

The real advantage that Josh McDaniels will bring to the Patriots

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When the Patriots hired Josh McDaniels last week to return just before the playoffs many Broncos writers and fans cried foul. Thus sparked an ongoing debate of what impact McDaniels could have in facing his former team.

Sane analytical football fans know that as far as the Broncos go, McDaniels impact would be minimal. Could he have some information about personnel that could be helpful? Sure. Maybe Demaryius Thomas has a tendency or something he doesn’t do well that the Pats didn’t catch on film. But other than some innocuous personnel insight McDaniels doesn’t possess any secrets the Pats don’t already know about the Broncos.

What is being overlooked is where McDaniels real impact will come. McDaniels is one of the most creative young offensive minds in the NFL, and he has been watching the Patriots from an outside perspective for the last three years. He has seen where the Pats have struggled, he has had to develop a game plan himself to attack them, and I’m sure he has imagined what he would do with the current set of Patriots weapons that did not exist when he left in 2009.

This experience and outside perspective from someone as smart as McDaniels is where he will be most useful for the Patriots playoff run.  Surely he has ideas of how to use Gronk and Hernando in ways Belichick and Bill O’Brien might not have thought of. Maybe he even has ideas for the Patriots’ defensive side of the ball based on how he would attack them.

There’s also the fact that McDaniels faced the Ravens and all four of the remaining NFC playoff teams this season. The Patriots have only seen the Giants of that group.

McDaniels will be a new set of valuable eyes, with an outside perspective that could help concoct game plans and schemes that Patriots opponents have not seen yet this year.

Instead of getting lost in the debate of how much inside information McDaniels does or doesn’t have on the Broncos, we should be focusing on the addition of a football mind that Bill Belichick trusts.  One who knows the Patriots offensive system inside and out and will provide valuable self-scouting information, while also having experience against five of the Patriots’ six remaining possible playoff opponents.

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Bill and Josh, reunited and it feels so good.

This picture makes me giddy with excitement.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-belichick-mcdaniels/

All Patriots present for Tuesday’s full pads practice

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Great news out of Foxboro this morning with every Patriot in attendance of the teams practice today, which was held in full pads. This includes Logan Mankins, who missed last week with a knee injury (reported MCL sprain) and Sebastian Vollmer who’s been held to just 6 games this season after battling back and ankle injuries.

There’s no question that the offensive line is vitally important to any Super Bowl run the Patriots may put together. In the last three playoff losses protection has been an issue in every one of them, and without solid line play the Pats won’t be going very far.

Having Mankins back was vital, but if Vollmer is able to go as well it will be a huge boost. While Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon have had solid rookie years, Vollmer’s playoff experience would be helpful both in the game and in preparations this week.

10 notes on the Patriots/Broncos first tilt

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Like most Pats bloggers and writers I re-watched the Patriots and Broncos week fifteen game  to try and glean some insight into what things might stay the same and what things might be different this time around with everything on the line. My notes below…

  1. A lot was made after the game (especially by me) how the switch to a 3-4 front on the fly was the reason for the Patriots defense turning it around after looking like swiss cheese early on. I don’t stand by this any more. The only real difference was turnovers and better tackling.
  2. Yes, the Patriots looked better after the fourth drive, but the difference was not the scheme, it was that the Patriots built a lead and that affected how the Broncos had to play.
  3. The Broncos still got a number of big yards on the ground and through the air after the Pats went to the 3-4.
  4. I expect the Pats to go back to the normal 4-3 base they’ve used this year to start to the game. If they can just tackle and keep contain they won’t have to  switch it up to the 3-4 that they have less experience in.
  5. HUGE KEY PATRIOT #1 = Rob Ninkovich. Ninkpoop had one of his worst games in Denver, that cannot happen again. I expect him to play with something to prove this time around. His missed tackles were embarrassing and despite coming away with a sack at the end, I still expect Ninkovich would like to make up for his performance early.
  6. HUGE KEY PATRIOT #2 = Brandon Spikes. It’s elementary football that you want your biggest meanest middle linebacker when you’re playing the league’s best rushing team. The fact that Spikes played with and practiced against Tebow is just an added bonus. I know Spikes had been out a while, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays a ton this weekend.
  7. HUGE KEY PATRIOT #3 = Patrick Chung. Chung’s tackling and aggressiveness will add a whole new dimension to the Patriots defense that the Broncos did not see last time. And the fact that he’s the only drafted safety on the roster won’t hurt either.
  8. Say what you will about the “bend don’t break” but I don’t think we’ll see the Patriots give up the number of long bombs the Steelers. Of course Patriots fans know that long bombs completed on the Steelers in the playoffs are pretty much how they do it.
  9. The Pats couldn’t get much going on the ground early on vs. the Broncos with Benjarvus Green-Ellis struggling mightily to find any running holes. Once the Pats switched it up with some Woodhead and Ridley things started to open up. By the second half the Pats were having good success on the ground, with Law Firm leading the way.
  10. I expect this game to be reminiscent of the 05, 06, 07 divisional games with the Pats rolling. It’s just a perfect storm between the re-match, the Broncos short week, McDaniels, and the lack of a Pats playoff win since January 2008. The signs are pointing to a big Pats victory to me.